is that because 2009 value is based only on the remaining half season?

Though I should be trying to find a way outside, such as be productive now and get outside. Seems like a nice day in the DC area (since iirc, Hugo’s from around here?).

Had some time this weekend, and this totally pointless, but I was going through my thoughts on the potential Halladay race on another SB site, so I figured I’d share
____________________________________

I’m not one to believe that the Toronto Blue Jays are going to get a knock your socks off deal, a Teixeira like deal. It’s possible, but with teams protecting their prospects more and with the economy as it is (cost-controlled talent is meaningful), I’m just not sold. A very good deal, yes. A knock your socks off deal? Only time will tell. In the end, it only takes 2 teams, or 1 team bidding against itself. Taking a spin

New York Yankees – If they don’t put in Hughes or Chamberlain, I don’t see how they can get it done. I don’t believe the Blue Jays would deal Halladay for salary relief (that is, I think a Doc trade will be focused on the talent in return). The Yankees system isn’t bad, but it’s not good. Probably in that mid-tier. There’s some solid, intriguing talent like Austin Jackson (potential 20 HR OF that can handle CF decently), Zach McAllister (has he gotten off the DL? I’ve long been a huge fan of this strike throwing mid-rotation guy), slugger Jesus Montero, catcher Austin Romine, and some others. I mean … without Hughes or Chamberlain, I can’t envision a scenario where the Blue Jays take a deal. The talent is ok, but the fit for their need isn’t that high. Even if the Yankees took Vernon Wells contract and offered their, say, top 4 prospects, I’m not so sure the Blue Jays do it, particularly since Toronto likely wants to extract a premium.

Boston – They certainly matchup a lot better to make a deal, with a lot of arms in the system to dangle out there (such as Casey Kelly, although he’s playing short right now in his half/half program, Junichi Tazawa, Michael Bowden, Stoley Pimentel, Nick Hagadone, and some big league pen arms) and some positional prospects. The matchup isn’t great (top shortstop talent is probably Yamaico Navarro in High A) but it can work when you are talking some of their top OF talent (Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin), a potential slugger like Lars Anderson (been struggling a tad). But Toronto likely wants a premium here as well.

Chicago White Sox – Most reports suggest Gordon Beckham is off limits, which would hurt Kenny’s chances of making this happen. That said, trade Kenny is always willing to deal from his chips, so they are a team to watch. I believe Dan Hudson is their top pitching prospect (and a case could perhaps be made, thier top prospect) although Aaron Poreda may get more nods. Big, strapping kid who has flown through the system, Hudson feels like he’s got some TOR ability. Is Poreda a big league pen arm? I could see maybe Gavin Floyd figuring into the equation if the teams truly talked. There’s an end of the rotation type arm, potentially, in John Ely, and a few other guys. Positionally, Dayan Viciedo has been bad. Tyler Flowers is a quality slugger who could fill a C/1st/DH type job. Brent Morel is a decent (and that might be a tinge nice) 3rd base guy but only in High A. I’m really not sure I see the fit. There’s some pieces. They are a bit thin on the positional side for my liking, so would a trade like Dan Hudson, Aaron Poreda, Tyler Flowers, and one get it done? Possible.

Detroit Tigers – They supposedly have the budgetary room (the implication to me seems to suggest that they could provide salary relief by taking a contract) but they just don’t have the chips. Ryan Perry’s a pen arm. Casey Crosby’s a kid from Maple Park, a big lefty, but he’s in Low A with some control concerns. There’s some other power pen arms, but the fit’s not there. On a side note, their draft last year is one that I point to as a bad draft. Got some decent value (and value picks, I think), but they went heavy on guys that project as pen arms, and one would guess that part of the reason was due to the fact that their pen struggled so mightily. Don’t like it, should never draft like that.

Los Angeles Angels – The system’s slipped, and with Jordan Walden’s recent injury, the chances of a deal are slim (as has been reported) unless they pony up some big league talent. System wise, Trevor Reckling is a very intriguing lefty. That said, major control concerns, but he’s 20 in AA. Another intriguing 20 year old is Will Smith, another lefty, but he’s down in Low A. Ryan Chaffee may rise up a bit this offseason, as he’s had a strong Low A debut, but the walks are bothersome. Reports sound good, though. There’s some other arms, but that’s their problem – the arm talent isn’t there. A package with a Brandon Wood and maybe another positional piece is a nice way to start, but it’s hard to see the match.

Texas Rangers – Loaded. They can make the deal if they wanted. Therein lies the question – do they want to sell those chips? With plenty of arms like Holland, Feliz, Kiker, Perez, and so on, they can make the deal. With strong positional assets at catcher and with a slugger like Justin Smoak, the options are there. There really isn’t a top shortstop or third base talent, but the quality is good enough elsewhere. Problem is, will Jon Daniels dive in?

New York Mets – It’s hard for me to buy this system as having enough. Jenrry Mejia has had a strong season, and the 19 year old is in AA. Looks intriguing. Brad Holt’s a nice arm in AA. Jefry Marte and Wilmer Flores haven’t set the world alight in Low A. Jon Niese is an intriguing upper level arm. The gigantic Scott Moviel (6’11" 235) is one of those guys that, if he puts it together, he might be intriguing, but a lot of moving parts. The positional talent just isn’t there. Reese Havens has been okay in High A. Would Omar get rash and go with an all-in? They certainly need another arm, but even an all-in might not be enough.

Philadelphia Phillies – They’ve got the chips to make a deal, with intriguing arms in Kyle Drabek (I like him a lot, though I think he’s getting a tad overrated), Antonio Bastardo, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp (ridiculous 111 K’s in 85 innings, granted MWL … but he’s 18!), big leaguer JA Happ, along with interesting potential "role" arms like Joe Savery, Mike Stutes, Andrew Carpenter, and others. They’ve got two of the best minor league OF talents in Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown, a decent shortstop talent (Jason Donald, although I’m surprised how much the bat disappeared), some decent catching talent (d’Arnaud and Marson), some raw talent like Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, Anthony Gose. I think they’ll have to put in at least Drabek and a top OF prospect, along with Jason Donald to start the package (drabek still carries a tinge of risk … at least a year or two away). The Phillies system caught up on me in terms of their quality. They draft for tools, but prior to this year, it was okay. Guys really stepped forward, though.

St. Louis Cardinals – I’ve come to believe this is an overrated system. Solid, but overrated. I love Brett Wallace’s bat, but what position does this man play outside 1st/DH. At his size, it’s going to be a lumbering LF if he plays that, and you probably wouldn’t want him at third for an extended period. Darryl Jones is a decent OF. Bryan Anderson is a decent catcher. Pete Kozma’s a solid looking shortstop prospect, but I don’t love the fact that he takes awhile to settle in. Just one of those bothersome things, but it really isn’t an issue, and he’s 21 years old in AA. A package of Wallace/Kozma is bound to get attention, but the arms side? There just isn’t anything to excite you. A bunch of power pen arms (and another one may be shipped to Cleveland to complete the DeRosa deal) and end of the rotation type starters, or raw upside kids far away. They’ve already indicated an unwillingness to go all-in.

Milwaukee Brewers – They just completed a Cole Gillespie/Roque Merceds for Felipe Lopez deal. Doesn’t really impact their ability to make a big deal. The system’s thinned a bit, and Jeffress’ suspension doesn’t help. With an elite shortstop talent in Alcides Escobar, though, that will always get attention. Mat Gamel can hit. Where he plays, who knows, but he can hit. Brett Lawrie was a good looking Canadian prospect who has done well in the MWL. In the first half, it was Lawrie or Vitters who many people considered the top MWL hitting prospect. Jon Lucroy has struggled with the bat in AA, but he’s still a decent looking catcher prospect. The problem is, where are the arms? Jake Odorizzi was linked to us briefly last year, and he’s a nice asset … in rookie league. Chris Cody is one of those end of the rotation types. Well, there is Manny Parra, and if they put Parra in there, they can make it happen. Will Melvin deal Escobar and/or Gamel? I think the next week or so will be huge, if they slip, I think this goes by the wayside.

Los Angeles Dodgers – If you want the team that I think best fits the Blue Jays needs, I think it’s the Dodgers. This is really a loaded team right now, with a strong bullpen (and reinforcements potentially coming soon), a loaded lineup with youngsters flourishing, and a pitching staff with youngsters flourishing. Kershaw’s not going anywhere, but James MacDonald might be available. He’s a solid looking potential number 2 starter type, IMO. Then, there’s a slugging 3rd base prospect in Josh Bell, and several shortstops to choose from, from the ready (Chin-lung Hu) to the upside (Dee Gordon). Add in some decent arms in the system. Problem is, this probably isn’t a knock your socks off package. The upside in the Phillies package would be better.

San Francisco Giants – This one holds the most intrigue. The first think you do is say … why. For a team with Lincecum/Cain, that’s a nice duo, with Johnson/Sanchez following up (I mean, obviously, rotation wouldn’t be set like that). The reason it holds intrigue for me is for a variety of reasons. The Giants system is solid, but a bit top heavy. Excellent pitchers line the top with Madison Bumgarner, one of the best in the minors, and Tim Alderson, what I’d call a "workmanlike" quality arm. There’s a bevy of arms beneath that are intriguing enough, from low down like Jorge Bucardo, to a guy like Clayton Tanner, and a couple others. There’s a top catcher in Buster Posey (doubt he’s going anywhere), a potential slugging first baseman in Angel Villalona, a decent shortstop talent in Brandon Crawford, and some other decent pieces (Roger Kieschnick, Conor Gillaspie). Reason why this intrigues me

a) salary relief – the Giants have some flexibility and could offer it
b) Potential bat acquisition – A Scott Rolen could be intriguing (moving Sandoval to first). Could a Vernon Wells or Alex rios fit into the equation if the right money can be worked out.
c) the Matt Cain factor – it’s something to ponder. As it stands, Roy Halladay is under control for the rest of this year and through 2010. I believe Matt Cain’s arbitration years were bought out through 2011 (well, there’s a 2011 club option, I think that’s his last arb year, though). That’s a one year difference in control. As good as Cain has been, most people would take Halladay now and next year. Could the Giants try to make a big play, hoping Lincecum and Halladay, plus a little luck, goes a long way? Blue Jays would get a quality arm to control for an extra year, along with some other assets. It’s one of those, no way … or … could it type scenarios for me.

This sort of leads into one final point. Darkhorses haven’t really been mentioned, and Halladay will control his destination to a certain extent. That said, most people really haven’t pondered the idea of a team making a short term play for the next year and a half. It probably won’t happen, but it’s something to consider. A team like Tampa, still owning a sweet system, could really use a starter now. The Marlins? A bit less likely, but they have the positional chips. The Twins? They need an arm, could they work a package together? The Rockies? Probably not, but Doc is from Colorado and their system has talent. There’s also a "it’s so unlikely, but the thought crossed my mind" in the Reds. Their pitching has been inconsistent. They still need the offense to come through, but with a loaded system, if they get into it, the thought has crossed my mind.

Which leads to the final, final point … I wouldn’t expect any movement (if a trade happens) to be until late in the month. I think a lot of teams are going to use the next week or so to gauge their position.

I want some opinion of others that follow this more closely…
I was in Chicago last year and saw Alexei Ramirez play. He is a sick talent and needs to put it all together to get to the next level.

If you were the Jays (or the Sox for that matter), would you trade Scoot and Halladay for Ramirez, Gavin Floyd and a couple mid level prospects, one of which needs to be ML ready next year?

If the Phils want to make Drabek untouchable, I’m fine with that. I’m not sold on him. I’ll build a package around Brown and Taylor anyways. Maybe add Carrasco and Marson. This lacks the “step-in” potential ace that Ricciardi apparently wants in return, but outside of Kershaw and Buchholz, they’re all a step down from that level.