Fun With Beyond the Boxscore's Trade Value Calculator

The great site Beyond the Boxscore has created a nifty little trade value calculator which makes it easy to calculate the value of any player on the trade market.  With so much talk about the notion of whether the Jays should be looking to deal away players at the trade deadline this year, I thought it'd be worth exploring what some of our players would be worth should we choose to explore the trade market for them.  I used fangraphs for WAR and Cot's for salary data.  "Sal" is what the player is earning, WAR is their wins above replacement level, VAL is what the player is worth (based on their WAR), and Net is the difference between what they're making and what they're worth.

 

Roy Halladay      
   
Year      Sal (M)        WAR       Val (M)        Net (M)
2009 $7.0 3.0 $13.7 $6.7
2010 $15.8 7.0 $31.9 $16.2
2011    
FA Picks $5.0  
Total $22.8 10.0 $50.6 $27.9

Marco Scutaro

     
 


 
Year     Sal (M)           WAR           Val (M)         Net (M)
2009 $1.3 2.5 $11.5 $10.2
2010
 
 
2011
 
 
FA Picks
$5.0  
Total $1.3 2.5 $16.5 $15.2

 

 

Scott Rolen      




 
Year Sal (M)       WAR        Val (M)         Net (M)
2009 $5.0 2.0 $9.2 $4.2
2010 $11.0 4.5 $20.7 $9.7
2011
 
 
FA Picks
$5.0  
Total $16.0 6.5 $34.9 $18.9

 

Lyle Overbay      
   
Year     Sal (M)           WAR         Val (M)         Net (M)
2009 $3.3 1.0 $4.7 $1.5
2010 $7.0 2.0 $9.4 $2.4
2011    
FA Picks $2.5  
Total $10.3 3.0 $16.6 $6.4

 

 

Vernon Wells      
   
Year     Sal (M)           WAR          Val (M)         Net (M)
2009 $4.8 1.0 $4.7 $0.0
2010 $21.0 2.0 $9.4 -$11.6
2011 $23.0 2.0 $9.4 -$13.6
2012 $21.0 1.5 $7.2 -$13.9
2013 $21.0 1.5 $7.2 -$13.9
2014 $21.0 1.0 $4.9 -$16.1
2015    
2016    
FA Picks $5.0  
Total #### 9.0 $47.7 -$64.1

 

 

Alex Rios      
   
Year     Sal (M)        WAR        Val (M)   
       Net (M)
2009 $2.5 1.5 $7.0 $4.5
2010 $9.7 5.0 $22.9 $13.2
2011 $12.0 5.0 $22.9 $10.9
2012 $12.0 4.5 $20.7 $8.7
2013 $12.5 4.5 $20.7 $8.2
2014 $12.5 4.0 $18.4 $5.9
2015    
2016    
FA Picks $5.0  
Total $61.2 24.5 $117.5 $56.3

 

 

Jason Frasor      
   
Year   Sal (M)  
      WAR     Val (M)       Net (M)
2009 $0.7 0.7 $3.4 $2.7
2010 $2.0 2.0 $9.4 $7.4
2011    
FA Picks $5.0  
Total $2.7 2.7 $17.8 $15.1

 

 

Scott Downs      
   
Year    Sal (M)     WAR     Val (M)     Net (M)
2009 $1.8 1.0 $4.7 $2.9
2010 $4.0 2.1 $9.9 $5.9
2011    
FA Picks $5.0  
Total $5.8 3.1 $19.6 $13.8

 

Some Thoughts:

  • Doc is truly a bargain and any team that trades for him should be sending significant value back.  That value doesn't even include the contribution he would make for whatever playoff-bound team acquired him. 
  • Vernon Wells' contract looks worse by the minute.  That's actually a somewhat optimistic projection for Vern, as he has been worth -0.9 WAR thusfar this season according to fangraphs.  That said, most of Wells' liability is his defense, which UZR absolutely abhors.  If you figure Wells either: (1) isn't as bad on defense as UZR thinks; (2) rebounds defensively; or (3) will move to a corner spot and be an above-average outfielder there, the deal might not be as bad.  Wells was a 1.2 WAR player last season in 2/3 of a season, so one could certainly see him providing positive value to the team.  But at that salary, it's still a tremendous liability.  If he gets back to being a 3 WAR player, less likely as he continues to age but still very possible if he should have a rebound offensive season, then it wouldn't be so bad.  
  • Marco Scutaro and Scott Rolen have significant value.  About 1/3 of Scoot's value is tied up in his being a type A free agent.  So if the Jays can't get a decent return for him, he might be worth holding on to for now.  I was optimistic on Rolen's projection as he was only worth about 3 WAR last year.  But I think UZR underestimates his defensive prowess, even at his age, and I think his line-drive swing is mostly for real. 
  • Lyle Overbay, on the other hand,  shouldn't necessarily expect to return much on the trade market.  Lyle's contract represents a reasonable, but unexceptional, measure of his worth.  If he hits lefties enough to play every day, that would help his value. 
  • Alex Rios is not equal to Vernon Wells.  The Jays should not be looking to just unload Rios' contract.  If they trade him, it should be for value.  The only risk with Rios is that if his defense starts to decline (it shouldn't be, but UZR doesn't like it much this year) and his bat never budges, he's not really a great corner outfielder.  That said, he was worth 5.5 WAR last season in an average year at the plate, so I don't think those projections are overly optimistic at all.  His deal isn't something the Jays need to run from. 
  • I was perhaps overenthusiastic about Frasor's projection.  Maybe Downs too, but you can't argue with what they've done on the field.  In truth, Downs has been one of the best relievers in the AL (and therefore, in baseball) since moving to the bullpen.  For both, significant value is tied up in their being Type A free agents, so if the Jays can't get a good return, they're probably worth hanging onto.  Don't forget how Justin Speier turned into Brett Cecil
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