If Roy Halladay is traded, then what?
by Tom Dakers on Jul 24, 2009 6:42 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
Email
PrintWe are a week away from the trade deadline and 4 days away from JP's suggested deadline for trading Doc. The trade winds have never blown harder in Toronto. But if Halladay is traded odds are that it would only be the first domino to fall. Who is likely to go after that? Well, glad you asked:
Scott Rolen: If Doc goes I'd imagine Rolen will be on the way out of town right after. Rolen is 34 right now and is having his best season, and his first heathy season, in 5 years. He has 1 year left on his contract with the Jays and I'd doubt we'd resign him again after that. His trade value is as high as it ever will be and it is hard to imagine that he'll have a better year in the rest of his career. I love watching him play but in the sell high theory this is the time to do it. The only reason not to trade him is that we don't have a 3B in the high minors that is ready to take his spot, but you'd have to guess that in the flurry of moves that could come if Doc is traded, a 3B prospect might be coming our way. If not a platoon of Scott Campbell and Jose Bautista could finish out the season for us.
Marco Scutaro: Another guy whose trade value has never and likely will never be higher. 33 this year and after an off season of hearing how he would never amount to more than a utility player, he has been just terrific. He is a free agent after this season and if the Jays were to sign him again it would only be for a couple of years at the most. His defense has been great and his offense has surprised everyone, but expecting him to take another step forward at his age is is hoping for too much. I would expect he would have some loyalty to the team that not only gave him a full time job but also put him in the everyday lead off role, but he has lots of value to a contender for the rest of this season. Again we don't have a prospect in the high minors ready to take his job; Justin Jackson and Tyler Pastornicky could both be very good major leaguers but they are at least a full year away from being ready to help the team.
Lyle Overbay: He is 32 years old and he trade value isn't as high as Rolen or Scutaro but could be a handy left handed bat for a contender. With Brian Dopirak and Randy Ruiz in Vegas, he could be replaced with pieces we have but I'm not sure what we could get in return for him.
Jason Frasor and Scott Downs: Frasor is 31 and is having the best season of his career right now. His trade value has never been higher. This is the first season since 2004 where he has had a manager with any faith in him at all. If I'm JP, I'd be wondering if he will ever be this good again, so I'd look to trade him now. Scott Downs is 33 and has been just amazing the last three seasons, I'd hate to give him up but again it is hard to see that his trade value would ever be higher. Many teams are looking for relief help right now, I'd like JP to see what he could get for Frasor and I'd understand if he traded Downs.
Alex Rios: I hate the idea of trading someone in the middle of a terrible season. Obviously he doesn't have the trade value he had last year or the year before and, at 28, it is likely he'll bounce back some from this year. But then the Mets traded for Jeff Francour so there is a market for an outfielder having a poor season and his contract isn't bad so you never know. He can play center field which gives him more value
Rod Barajas: Hitting .247/.278/.396 he is having a poor year. At 34 and a free agent after the season, I really can't see the Jays being excited about signing him again and I'm sure there are teams looking to improve their catcher or backup catcher spot. As a veteran with decent defense I'd think he has some trade value.
John McDonald: If anyone wanted him I'm sure he'd be gone already.
Vernon Wells: Sorry, ain't going to happen. The pipe dream of packaging him with Doc in a trade is just that, no one is going to do it. He is 30 we have him for 5 more years. Hopefully some of them will be decent.
Brian Tallet: Until Tallet was moved out of the starting rotation, I saw him as someone whose trade value had never been higher. He is 31 now and as a starter he would have value to a contender that was looking to add depth to their rotation. As a reliever, he could still have value for a team looking for a left handed arm in the pen, but he isn't worth what he was a month ago.
I don't see that anyone else on the team that we'd either want to move or that has much value. I think we want to build the offense around Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Travis Snider. And I can't see us trading any of the young arms in the rotation.
If Doc isn't traded before the deadline, I could see us not making any major moves before the deadline. We could wait until the off season to decide where we go from here. I'm not sure that that isn't the better idea anyway.
45 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Folks, do you think this season is out of the window?
First, Tom is correct about each player’s current value (Rolen, Scutaro, Overbay, Frasor and Downs) but keeping just three big pieces (Hill, Lind and Snider hopefully he’ll come up big too) would mean rebuilding completely? Wouldn’t that be too excessive? Would it be the worst sign yet of the financial conditions of this ownership, as I always say? As the deadline gets closer and closer, I feel more nervous about Doc. Not to mention the last two losses to Cleveland, perfect examples of the last two months. Very disgusting! PS: Despite 2 awful losses and 2 mostly disappointing months, I’m still optimistic until the numbers say that we can’t do it anymore!
Im pretty sure the seaon is over.
Being 9 games back is one thing, but being 9 games back and behind countless other teams is another.
I think this team needs to rebuild pretty much in order to contend. We have to do what the Rays did and build through our farm system. No big free agents want to come to Toronto, nor can we afford it.
Onions Baby Onions
Yes!
Let’s do it like the Rays.
Let’s settle for dead last for 9 years straight and basically be the laughing stock of the league and alienate most of a fanbase.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Jul 24, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry they finished 4th one year… But they were still the laughing stock of the league.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Bad comparison.
The Rays organization got its act together around 2005/2006 with a flurry of changes- all of them positive. It really took the Rays just 3/4 years to blow up a “team” (if one could call it that) and go to AL contenders.
Anything pre-2005 is a joke. They were never building. They were wasting money and being stupid. I hate the Rays. But I agree, once the franchise got its act together, it only took about 4 years to recognize the benefits of building the right way.
Jays need to trade Doc and Rolen and move on. I love Doc, but if I’m Ricciardi (sans the probably-won’t-be-here-after-2010 part), I realize that he’s not a part of our long-term plans and trade him now, as his value will most likely never be higher.
by JaysFanInKS on Jul 24, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Some of the players on the Rays playoff team from last year
came from draft picks before 2005. Yeah the off season before 2007 they made some good moves but a lot of the pieces were there from years of last place finishes and the high draft choices that they got for finishing last.
+1
Home grown Rays…
Scott Kazmir
David Price
James Shields
Jeff Niemann
Evan Longoria
Ben Zobrist
Carl Crawford
BJ Upton
Akinori Iwamura
Kazmir isn't homegrown
They got him from the Mets for Victor Zambrano. Zobrist was from the Astros for Aubrey Huff. Iwamura came from NPB through the posting system.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I didn’t mean to imply they didn’t make good moves, because they did and they deserve credit for that.
I am just sick and tired of people pointing to the Rays as the way to do things. No one picked them to win last year, they surprised baseball and now because of that they are treated like friggin baseball gods.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Correct to an extent...
But it was a squad that, going into 2008, was going to be much-improved. Many experts were calling them a team that would win 90+ in 2009 or 2010. They combined a good team with a lot of luck and a dramatically improved bullpen to make the postseason.
I would disagree. I treat them like baseball gods for what they’ve done the past few years. Last year was a high-point and pretty lucky, but was deserved in a sense.
They built a team for the long haul, and even though it may not yield a playoff bid every year, they’ve got a much brighter future than Toronto.
by JaysFanInKS on Jul 24, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Baseball Prospectus
Had them down for having a winning record last year. I can’t recall the amount of wins they projected but I believe it was around 88.
And you are both right! Their management now has really picked it up, and their low finishes have landed themselves some amazing athletes.
I realize that they have had much higher picks than us in recent drafts, but comparing farm systems and prospects, the Rays are much more loaded than us. Wade Davis should be starting in 2010, and should be amazing. And lets not forget about Tim Beckham!
I agree on the latest part of that statement........
……….I am afraid we can’t afford it………thank you Ricciardi for those excessive contracts. Those players are certainly than they are showing in 2009 but their own yearly wages should be at least 20% lower. Uhm, perhaps I am talking of Wells and Rios??
Regardless of their contracts, players still dont want to come to Toronto
And we still wouldnt be able to afford any top tier FAs like Boston or NY can. The only solution is to rebuild through the minors…
All i know is that if Halladay is traded for Happ instead of Drabek im going to kill someone. It’d be a typical JP move to trade Roy for a guy like Happ whos putting up good superficial numbers but is ridiculously lucky.
Onions Baby Onions
+1
i want Drabek and not Happ. In my opinion, we only have a handful of solid prospects in our farm system… i dont wanna see Doc go anymore then anyone else, but it would make sense for the franchise to trade him and get some solid young players here
i can only hope it would be as good as the Colon to Montreal trade
If we trade away Rolen/Scoot...
It’s McDonald time! Woo-wee!
Scoot
I agree with most of the post Tom, but I think the Jays should resign Marco to a 2 year extention. This will give Justin Jackson and Tyler Pastornicky time in the minors to get ready for the leap to the big team. If one is ready to start in 2011, we can move Scoot back to the super utility roll, something every team could use.
We will never get more than a ho-hum prospect for him, so there is more value keeping him than letting him go.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions
Well it depends on what we get back from other teams
but Scoot’s trade value will never be this high again, so if we get a reasonable offer for him, I pretty sure we will take it.
To be reasonable it has to beat the two draft picks
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Well what if we do trade
Doc, Scoot, Rolen, Overbay, Frasor, Downs and Rios for prospects. That team will win 20 games.
All-out rebuilding does not work. These prospects will not be ready for 2-3 years and I’m not sure we are prepared for back-to-back 100 loss seasons just because we got “reasonable offers” for our aging veterans.
I say ride Scoot, Overbay and Rolen until their wheels fall off. We should get 2-3 more years out of them and in that time, the boatload we get for Doc will be major league ready. This is a way to rebuild without actually rebuilding.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Rolen as much as anybody
but we saw yesterday how it hurts us that he can only play two games out of three. (Or that he’s only going to as long as Cito’s here.)
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I didn't see yesterdays game.
I was in a golf scramble crushing budlight limes. Great way to spend a 30 degree day. I was hitting refresh on my blackberry trying to follow along, but thats frustrating.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Bautista let a routine double play ball go through his legs
Turning a scoreless inning into a 3 run inning. Also, he made no contribution at the plate, including failing to advance a runner to third with none out in the bottom of the 9th.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
My point stands though
Allout re-building DOES NOT WORK.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Honeslty not alot.
The rebuilding I’m referring to is the kind whereas you sell off all producing veterans for unproven prospects. This can work in the NBA and NFL where prospects can walk right into the big club and produce right away. This doesn’t work in baseball, just ask the fans in Pittsburg or Florida
You need to maintain a good balance of young “projects” and veterans. A well run team should be able to cycle through while always maintaining a competitive team. As veterans retire or become ineffective, the young projects should be ready to step up….and then repeat.
I think the Jays have this balance of veterans and young stars, there is no need to blow the whole thing up and we’ll have holes at 3rd, short, first, and catcher. By the time these holes are filled, Snider, Lind, Hill etc will be past their prime producing years.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
This team has not tried to rebuilt, RETOOL for the long term...
since Aquemelli’s time frame of the past 15 years.
The Jays are always one or two players away. Well guess what … its tough to get those players to come to Toronto- and when you get them, you either overpay for the overrated (AJB) or gamble to lock them up for their career (VW).
It’s easier to replenish the farm before doing anything else. That’s what Tampa did, plus they brought in Iwomura and Percival- neither costing much.
Many folks on here make the excuse that injuries are shielding us from the how good the Jays really are… well here’s some news. Injuries linger. You don’t become completely healthy in the off-season. McGowan won’t be back. Litsch will never be the same. Marcum probably won’t either.
This team had to pitch out of its arse last year just to be on the fringe of the wild card hunt. The bullpen had a year that will not be matched again- collectively- by the current staff. And even with the struggling bats, the 2008 Jays were not a playoff team.
With this current mentality of being just one player away, or just waiting on guys to get healthy again, I feel that the best this team can do is 90 wins.
Just rebuild. Whatever happened to patience? I can understand impatience from the past decade, but that’s because Toronto continuously made moves to get those extra couple of players, but to no avail. How about admitting that it’s going to take a few years, but that the organization will be stronger from top to bottom and that it will be near the top of baseball for years to come?
I don’t get it.
REBUILD
So you are willing to sit through a couple 100 loss seasons?
Even then its a crapshoot.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
So long as the team has a plan...
And if they do it right, it’s not a crapshoot. Of course you need to have some luck, but a plan will assure that the team will have a better future.
Once Again,
The Jays had the fourth-best run differential in the League last season. Do we really think “rebuilding” will get us better than that?
Rebuilding isn’t a magic potion that says “All we need is a plan and the team will win the pennant in three years.” You need a ton of luck just to even become competitive. Draft choices don’t always pan out, free agent signings don’t always work, injuries still happen (especially to young arms), sometimes you lose one-run games, etc.
The Rays did a good job, but they’ve also been very fortunate. Do you think the Blue Jays will be so lucky?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Even if we could guarantee the Ray's success
It took like 10 freaking years. I don’t want to watch year after year of shitty baseball just so we can catch lightning in a bottle in the 10th year.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
There is no reason why we would be a 100 loss team
Unless, of course, we keep all our 30 some year old players and watch then go through their decline.
Trade Rolen, Scoot, Overbay, Barajas, Rios, Doc, Frasor and Downs.
Replace them with rookie prospects.
Where does 63 wins come from?
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you seen our Rookie pitchers this year?
our best players and been our younger guys. Do you think Rolen or Scoot will be as good next year or the year after? Barajas hasn’t hit much this year. Overbay isn’t that hard to replace.
Again.
They didn’t truly “all-out” rebuild until around 2005. And before that- they were an expansion team in 1997! It took a few years to grow that farm.
You’re simply looking for excuses because you are afraid of letting go of that small glimmer of hope that is the current make-up of the Toronto Blue Jays.
No, I'm not making excuses
All I’m saying is you don’t completely blow the whole thing up when we are close. And we are close, despite what you seem to think.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 24, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
and neither does half-assed rebuilding just to make sure you don't lose 100 games a year
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Rumors: Will Roy Halladay Get Traded?
The highly anticipated Roy Hallday and for that matter Toronto Blue Jay’s sweepstakes has so far been very interesting, with rampant rumors and speculation a bound, but nothing substantial has happened in Toronto just quite yet. My gut instinct is that J.P. Ricciardi finally realizes that while the organization has been injected with talent, his current roster just isn’t going to ever leap frog the Yankees, Red Sox’s or the Rays in the East, and being a 4th place team this year and every year after for the next decade isn’t going to get him anywhere. He realizes that it is only going to hurt his draft picks, leaving the team in a state of mediocre purgatory. It’s nothing to be ashamed of, and if the team was in almost any other division in the league they could have easily been to the playoffs the last 5 years. But that isn’t the case, and the clock is ticking on Halladay’s playing days in Canada. The time is now to cash in on Halladay‘s trade value by restocking the farm system, completely rebuilding and starting over. Every day that he remains a Blue Jay, his trade value diminishes. The best offer the Blue Jays have found so far this year has come from the Phillies, who have been more than generous by offering their young stud Kyle Drabek, who is almost ready for the big leagues. Ricciardi is playing hard ball, waiting to see if anyone else will up the ante, but I don’t believe anyone will and the Phillies will inevitably force his hand, landing Halladay in Philly, and instantly solidifying the Phillies a spot in the NLCS alongside the Dodgers.
I realize that things need to change and so does J.P. Ricciardi. The problem for the Blue Jays, and the reason he has yet to be traded is that teams are not willing to move anything close to Halladay’s perceived value in Toronto. Word on the street is that the Blue Jays are asking for a kings ransom. For example, initial proposals with the Yankees and Dodgers include requests for franchise players like Phillip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, and Johnathan Broxton. Everyone has a different take on whether it would be a beneficial move. There are guys like Steve Phillips who think it would be a good idea for nearly every team to make the move. Logic like his sure helps to explain how during his tenure he ruined the Mets by stacking up on aging and expensive vets. Despite taking them to subway series in 2000, the Mets were in complete shambles after he left, and they still have never really developed any good young pitching since that point.
Why would either team trade one of these players, or even think about packaging any of these players for a year and a half rental? I’m sorry, I love Halladay and he is a legit ace that can do a lot of great things for a team, but he is not worth a single one of those players. Let’s all try to remember that this is the same guy who has had been plagued by a bunch of small arm injuries throughout his career, and has logged an insane amount of innings along the way. I would completely change my position on this if he were signed long term, but again that is not the case. I’d rather have my shot with an unproven commodity like a Kershaw, Hughes, Chamberlain, or Billingsley and ride the perpetual up’s and down’s, than trade the world for a one year rental who will end up walking out on us, empty handed with a compensation sandwich pick. The Blue Jay’s are hoping to get lucky, have a team cave in to their requests, hit the jackpot on a few draft picks, instantly turning the franchise around, saving baseball in Canada. Unfortunately in my opinion that is merely just wishful thinking.
Taking into consideration the variables of the deal, I would be very cautious to ship out any young developed proven MLB players. I live in L.A. and follow the Dodgers and Mannywood everyday and I am honestly praying that we don’t make the mistake of succumbing to the pressure of adding Roy’s big name, if will cost us Clayton, Billingsley, Kemp or even our closer Broxton. If the Jays are asking for any of the home grown talent to be included, I’d have to respectfully decline any deal.
A guy like Kershaw is on the up, and has the physical makeup to dominate for years. He is an absolute beast, with an insane curveball. He has really come into his own the last few months, just check out his last 10 or so starts and his wicked k/9 innings. He’s never had any injuries, not to mention he is a lefty. Giving up a cheap stud like Kershaw who has yet to even hit arbitration is just too much even in a straight up swap. In my opinion trading any currently established core players such as Kershaw, Billinglsey, Kemp, or Broxton whom all have the potential to be just as good, if not better than Halladay just doesn’t make any financial or baseball sense for the Dodgers, or anyone for that matter.
By: Morgan Spokny
Scouting The Sports Contributor
The Bottom Line Sports Show
Big time interviews, Big time athletes, laced with attitude!
We want to hear your opinion on sports. (347) 324-5839
The website features a superb collection of archived shows and interviews with legends like Vince Carter, Patrick Ewing, Allan Houston, Chris Bosh and many more.
I dont thing any teams have been considering trading guys like Kershaw#
I dont think the Jays will ever get someone like him for Roy. However, they deserve the next best thing, which are top prospects who are projected to be as good as Kershaw is now, except havent proven it yet.
Onions Baby Onions
Well he hasn't been "plagued by a bunch of small arm injuries throughout his carreer" for one.
He’s had some freak accidents, broken leg, appendix, groin but he’s been quite durable. Also just look at what Baltimore got for Bedard, a far more injury plagued pithcer than Halladay.
I think there will be a flurry of moves for the jays if Halladay goes,
Riccardi said to Wilner yesterday when asked if he would stay on after 2010 that he didn’t think so because it would be a really young team and similar to the same situation he originally came to Toronoto with. I got the feeling that a full rebuild and lowered payroll are on the way if the first domino (Halladay) falls.
Look what the Cardinals just got for two months of Holliday, wow,
Wallace, Peterson and Clayton Mortensen, for two months of Holliday. The market has been set, A year and half of Halladay should command a boat load.
I agree. Halladay looks like on the way out, so let’s hope the team he’s going to pays up and pays big. Tonight could be the last night he’ll pitch at home, so I am going to the game!
Rebuilding????????
How by starting our rebuilding phase by sending Ricciardi all the way to Dunedin A ball….Perhaps he could learn to make a proper signing down there at the expense of giving away very little money, unlike the millions he easily handed out to Wells and Rios. If he fails in Dunedin, then we just have to release him and offer him a job in the concession stands…..
"Sports is something you know, not something you should preach.'
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
