Halladay and trade value.

by RollingWave on Jul 30, 2009 10:29 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

I know that Roy Halladay certainly have a lot of sentimental attatchments for Jays fans. but in the regards of wether they should trade him , and for how much. one need a more realistic approach to the issue.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/ of SB nations had a great series of post over the last month that really puts a ton of insights into these issues. everyone should really take a look.

On trade value calculation

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/15/950094/saber-friendly-blogging-101-trade

Trade Value of Halladay

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/16/951321/whats-a-fair-return-in-a-roy

Trade Value of Vernon Wells (poke self in eye)

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/17/952509/whats-the-value-of-a-vernon-wells

draft pick value

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/20/950254/which-is-better-compensation

On the potential Philly purposals

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/25/962778/phillie-phleecing#comments

I think using these , the general conclusion you can draw is that.

A. Roy Halladay has a lot of value but probably not as much as you think

B. Vernon Wells has a lot of value.... in the negative territory, and probably (A LOT) more than you think.

C. Draft picks are only as valuable as maybe one B prospect.

D. If the Jays decide they can't compete next year trading Roy right now is probably the best idea.

E. Don't overplay on what you think you'll get. Cliff Lee's haul was meh but it wasn't absurdly low. it is basically on the lower end of what you should reasonablly except in a Halladay deal. Some one could go all Bill Bavasi or Brian Sabean on you but that's not what generally happens.

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D. If the Jays decide they can’t compete next year trading Roy right now is probably the best idea.

E. Don’t overplay on what you think you’ll get. Cliff Lee’s haul was meh but it wasn’t absurdly low. it is basically on the lower end of what you should reasonablly except in a Halladay deal. Some one could go all Bill Bavasi or Brian Sabean on you but that’s not what generally happens.
-Emphasis mine

I agree on a couple of your points. But I would add a caveat. If the Jays decide they can’t compete AND they conclude that it is going to be impossible to sign him then you have to trade him.

That being said you don’t trade him for a low offer. You have all of the offseason and next season to trade him if you don’t get the offer you want. Yes theoretically his value is highest at the moment, but if the offers aren’t even coming close to the value then what is the point?

As for the bolded part of your message, that part I disagree with. To me I would reasonable expect that if JP settled for that I for one would be extremely pissed off and every writer in Canada would be writing about how the Jays folded and were not strong enough to get what they should. I am glad JP stood firm, He had an asking price and no one was willing to meet it.

And the draft pick part. Its hard to assign a value to a lottery ticket which is basically what they are. Yes minor leaguers with some additional history are worth more but even then minor leaguers fall back all the time. The BA top 100 prospects changes all the time.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jul 31, 2009 8:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bah, Forgot to add that it wasn’t just JP’s decision, that Beeston and other Roger’s employees were also in on it, so they had to come to some consensus that it wasn’t enough.

I tend to agree with that sentiment, you don’t which is fine. Everyone values certain minor league players differently.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jul 31, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is that

Generally speaking, the longer you wait, the less value and leverage you have.

In the off seasons , teams that could reasonablly trade for Halladay are almost all capable of signing big FAs as well. while Doc’s obviously more valuable than most big FAs. weighing in the prospects and the difference diminishs. and the fact that those teams have the FA alternatives (something they don’t have during the deadline) and that generally the options of who might be tradable is also wider . tend to diminish leverage anyway.

It is hard to do a abosalute weight on propsect and draft pick in general. but Wang’s research at least more or less factored it in. showing that the average outcome of a top prospect is dramatically higher than that of a draft pick (that’s not exactly a huge shocker)

by RollingWave on Aug 4, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's true

But while Doc’s value may decrease, there may be more teams in the hunt for him because they will be able to budget him into the payroll in the offseason.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 4, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but

Which teams that weren’t involved in the talks already you think will be intrigued in the offseason?

Yanks , RS, Angels, Phils , Rangers , Rays, Dodgers were already in the talks, not that it was likely for the Jays to trade him in the division. so the big market teams that is left on the table would be the Mets and um.. White Sox and Cubs?

The Mets already have Johan and is in a complete mess anyway that it is unlikely for them to trade for Doc , Sox traded for Peavy and is likewise also messed up on the everyday player aspect, Cubs miiiight make a play. but that’s bout it.

by RollingWave on Aug 4, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The point is that teams don't have to be large-market to afford Doc for one year

There will be more time to dump salary in the offseason, if that’s what they want to do.

We can argue about this until one of our faces turns blue and it really won’t make a difference either way. Any team that was serious about acquiring him would have made a better offer. When you take your best prospect off the table, that signifies that you are not that interested in getting the deal done.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 5, 2009 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love the value argument, I was having the same argument with someone at work this past week

Let’s say the value on Halladay now is A+, and by the time the offseason rolls around his value drops to A or A- because he becomes a one year rental.

So the argument goes you trade him now because the value is A+ and will go down. But since teams were only offering a B package and not offering A+ Value what is the point?

Also to possibly increase leverage, I can see the Jays allowing teams to negotiate with Halladay in the off-season since it would only be for a year instead of a Year+

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Aug 5, 2009 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

VW

your comments on VW support what I have been saying …. that the Jays should give him away to anybody who would take his contract

by aagoodfella on Jul 31, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

unfortunately

that’s no one

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jul 31, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the biggest (though not the only) fallacy in your argument

is that it is based on the idea that the Jays are clearly not built to contend in 2010, but somehow getting meh prospects in return for Halladay and perhaps others is magically going to catapult them into contention in some unknown future time, when players who are presently extremely valuable like Doc, Rolen, and Scutaro and others have moved on or aged. If the Jays aren’t good enough now, players of the ilk Philadelphia gave up for Lee certainly aren’t meaningfully going to help them compete with New York or Boston in 3 or 4 years.

Now if we were talking about the prospects Philly didn’t trade, then we have an argument that those players are going to meaningfully help the Jays down the road. The 2010 Jays with Doc, Scutaro, Rolen might not compete with New York or Boston, but they have a better chance of doing so than a hypothetical 2013 Jays team with Carrasco instead of Halladay, Donald instead of Scutaro or Rolen etc. I don’t think you have an understanding of how difficult it is to play in the AL East. Peripheral stats suggest that the Jays are one of the better teams in the AL and they are still struggling mightily.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jul 31, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the biggest thing is..

how many things we have on this now.. thank god for august 1st!!!!!

by bowling_kid25 on Jul 31, 2009 10:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Amen to that

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jul 31, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Doc Holladay"

I have zero respect for this guy now. Just another gutless coward that won’t pitch in the Texas heat. and you know what they say if you cant’ stand the heat stay out of the kitchen. Stay there and look forward to your early fall vacation. You have zerro chance of catching the Yanks and the Sox at least with the Rangers there was a chance. But then cowards always take the easy way out.

by wuzguest on Jul 31, 2009 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs