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And I know my time is surely gonna come: Prospect Midseason Report: Vol. 2

Continuing our look at how our top 30 prospects are progressing this season, with the second volume, covering prospects 11-20 in our list. I'm sticking with lyrics from the song Hugo chose, Ryan Adam's 'In My Time of Need'. And he's right, Ryan is far superior to Bryan any day, though I'll admit to having had an unexplainable like for Bryan's song 'Straight From the Heart' or at least the live version if it. It goes on my list of guilty pleasures. 

Anyway, I'll, once again note that the prospect list was complied before the season and that there will be changes made to it after the season. Like any prospect list, some guys will turn out and some won't. 

The review comes after the jump.

Star-divide

11. Marc Rzepczynski: Likely the guy that has done the most to solidify his place as a Jay prospect on our list. After 14 Double-A starts, he's moved up to Vegas. Two starts and 2 wins in Vegas with a 0.79 ERA has us looking at him as a possible call up if (please no) another starter goes down with an injury. Between the two levels he is averaging 10.6 strikeouts/9 innings and has only given up 1 homer in 88 innings. He is an extreme ground ball pitch, getting 2.35 ground outs/ fly out.  Only negative this year is he is walking a few too many, 4.1/9 innings though he has done a little better in his two Triple-A starts. A lefty that throws low 90's, has a curve, slider and changeup can have a good major league career. 23 years old now, he likely will be fighting for a rotation spot in spring of next year.

12. Robert Ray: Ray made 1 start in Vegas at the end of April then was called up to the Jays. He made 4 starts with the Jays, 1 excellent start, 8 innings, 3 hits, no earned runs. 1 ok start and 2 bad ones. Then the Jays tried to send him back down to Vegas but found he had a shoulder injury and put him on the DL instead. The Jays haven't said much about the injury but he is to be out until late July. That he pitched in the majors shows that the Jays like him but we don't know how much the injury will set him back.

13. Brian Jeroloman: The Jays put Jeroloman in Double-A New Hampshire so that he and JP Arencibia could both play every day. You would think at 24 Jeroloman and in his second year at Double-A he would be raking.  Well, he's not, batting .248/.346/.369 with 5 homers.  He's striking out too much 30.2% of the time. The sad part is his batting average is being helped out by a .333 BABIP. He hit much better last year in AA. His arm is showing well, he is throwing out 40%. I get the feeling if he makes the majors he'll be a catch and throw guy like Raul Chavez but he'll likely take the odd walk. I'd say he'd drop back some next time we do the prospect's list, but ten we don't have a lot of catching prospects. Right now he projects as a backup catcher.

14. Scott Richmond: don't know what happened to him. 

15. Balbino Fuenmayor: His first season of full season ball isn't going well so far, he's hitting .226/.261/.344 in Lansing. He did have a very good May .307/.316/.453 and July has started well, .333/.412/.400. He's just 19 so he's got a long way to go. At 6'3" and 235, you gotta wonder if he'll be moving across the infield at infield at some point, he'd be a heck of a target for throws at first base, he's played 11 games there so far this year. He's made 7 errors at 3rd in 28 games. Like most 19 year olds, their first season at A-Ball, he's striking out too much, 30.3% and not walking near enough 1.8%, he was some better last year walking at a still too low rate of 5.8%, again at 19 he has time to learn. Likely there is power potential to come.  He was said to have good range at third but that was before he put on 30 pounds in the last year.

16. Tim Collins: 19 years old and in Dunedin. If a relief pitcher can be called a prospect, he's the one. In 43.2 innings he's struck out 67 batters, add in that he only has allowed 6.4 hits/9 innings and you can see why he's liked. 19 walks is a little high but a 3.53 SO/W rate is pretty terrific and only 2 home runs allowed is great too. As he has a .341 BABIP he is actually pitching better than his 2.47 ERA suggests.  At 5'7" and 155 pounds he is pretty small, he isn't going to come in and scare anyone but he can pitch. The Jays are stretching him out a little but I wouldn't expect him to become a starter anytime in his career, but he has pitched 3 innings in an appearance this year. A lefty, he does do better against lefty batters but I think he's got better in his future than just a LOOGY role. I'm rooting for him.

17. Eric Eiland: Eric is an athlete who the Jays hoped would grow into a player. He hasn't happened yet. He took a step back this year, having played at Lansing last year, he's back at Auburn short season ball this year. He is having a slow start there hitting .229/.362/.333 in his first 14 games this year. He has learned to take a walk, walking 19.2% of the time.  He is only 20 and has amazing speed, but the bat doesn't seem to be progressing. He's been a bit better so far in July, hitting .273/.385/.545. Hopefully as the season progresses so will his bat. 8 steals in 14 games is pretty good too.  He is just 20 and with his speed he could be a terrific center fielder and if he can get on base enough his speed would be great on the base paths.

18. Bradley Emaus: He had a terrific spring training and the Jays moved him to Double-A New Hampshire and he is having a tough time of it, like many players do the first time at Double-A. He's hitting .235/.304/.368. At 23 he's not too young for the level and should be doing better.  It is a little stange, he hit in the .280's in April and May and then stopped hitting in June (.128). July is going better so far (.263). Have to wonder if there was an injury in June that we didn't know about.  A right handed batter, he isn't hitting lefties at all (.195).  He keeps a pretty low strikeout rate, 12.7%, he could walk a little more, 8.4% this year. He has shown good speed with 7 steals. If you ignore June he's doing pretty well this year. Of course, if you ignore my worst days, I'm a pretty good guy too, but still I'm taking it for granted something was wrong in June.

19. Davis Romero: A year ago, I felt, Davis was passing Ricky on the prospects list. I've been more wrong before, but not often. Davis has moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen in Vegas this year. He hasn't been doing well with a 5.67 ERA, 12 hits/9innings, 4.5 walks/9 and dropping to 6.6 SO/9. Yeah, I think he'll drop off the prospects list after this year. He's 26 now and if he was a prospect he'd be in Toronto by now. Going from 9 hits/9 last year to 12 this year isn't a good trend as is going from a 3.71 ERA last year to a 5.67 one this year. He has had shoulder injuries the last couple of seasons and is regaining strength still but at 26 now, likely his days as a prospect are nearly over.

20.  Tyler Pastornicky: He is in just his second year in professional ball and at 19 years of age Tyler is having a really good season in A-ball Lansing. He is hitting .277/.349/.339, he has 5 triples and 39 steals in just 78 games. He had a poor May (.203 BA) but has improved each month of the season. He takes a decent number of walks (29 in 319 PA, this year), likely he'll learn to take more, and his strikeout rate is good (12.6%). You have to like that from such a young man. He has made 19 errors but then he's just 19 and A-Ball diamonds aren't known for their true bounces, he has good range.  I think there is a fair chance that he passes Justin Jackson somewhere along the trail to the majors.  Jackson has better ‘tools' but Pastornicky is the more complete player at the moment. He has no power but he has time to find some and with his speed he could be the type of offensive player we haven't had in a long while. But he is a few years away from the Majors.

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funny

I remember when we first did this list, some people commented that Richmond wasn’t a real prospect and had no chance at a meaningful major-league career. Things sure change

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jul 6, 2009 8:34 AM EDT reply actions  

not a real prospect

My contention was including him as a prospect, not that he couldn’t have a meaningful stint in the majors. He was signed as a free agent out of independent leagues at the age of 28. I don’t think this has much to do with player development (which is what prospect lists measure, imo). I don’t know where to draw the line (between his case and Dopirak’s for example), but in my opinion, Richmond was over it.

by ayjackson on Jul 6, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wasn't referring specifically to you

I agree it is tough to say when an older minor league player from an independent or foreign league is a “prospect” – my take on Richmond was that although older, he still progressed upward through the minor league system and developed along the way – I didn’t get the sense that he was signed as a finished product so I just thought prospect was as fair as any other descriptor

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jul 6, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I remember us discussing it

With the age vs that he was likely to make the team. Prospects is one of those terms that is hard to define. But Richmond has a better chance at getting a major league pension than any of the others in the 11-20 part of the list.

Of course we had people laughing, before the season when we said he could be a good 5th starter.

by Tom Dakers on Jul 6, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

i wish we could be wrong about Kevin Ahrens

he’s 0 for his last 14 down in Dunedin… its sad too, one of the best prospects coming out of high school… i hope he turns it around in years to come…

by Aquamelli on Jul 6, 2009 11:37 AM EDT reply actions  

on the bright side

ranking prospects is a bit like horserace journalism . . . guys, especially ones out of high school, fall back and surge at times so Ahrens may be at a low-point now but, as you said, he could easily turn the corner.

some guys it takes a little while to figure things out, particularly if they are being promoted before they master the current league. that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be promoted, it just means they probably won’t hit right away.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jul 6, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

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