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All These Verses Share a Theme, It's the Great Decay: Next Series Pitchers Preview: Baltimore Orioles

Last time we faced him, Jeremy Guthrie did this.  Let's make him do it again. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

More photos » Frank Gunn - AP

Last time we faced him, Jeremy Guthrie did this. Let's make him do it again. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

Well, that was another incredibly frustrating series.  If it seems like our boys have been in 'em, but just can't seem to win 'em, there's a reason for that.  Despite being outscored only 42 - 34, the Jays have now dropped six of their last seven games.  No one likes to be outscored, but the Pythagorean Winning Percentage in that case should be about 40%, which means that, if luck were even just a bit on their side, this team could easily be 3 - 4 instead of 1 - 6 over that span (still not great, but certainly not let's-cash-in-all-our-chips-bad, either).

Anyway, the Jays hope to turn things around this weekend in Baltimore 10 - 12 July.  Local boy Brett Cecil gets the start tomorrow night at 7:00 against Jason BerkenRicky Romero starts the Saturday night game for the Jays and the Orioles counter with Brad Bergesen, whose been quite successful thus far.  It's been unannounced who will pitch for the Jays on Sunday (their last game before the All Star break), but I am anticipating that it willl be Marc Rzepczynski.  Jeremy Guthrie is slotted to make the start for the O's.

Okay, guys, let's take this series, head into the break with at least a .500 record and enjoy some well-deserved time off.  We know you've had to deal with injuries and we just want to see you play your best.  By the way, today's post title comes from Cursive and -- while I'm sad to say it -- I think we all know what's inspired it.

Star-divide

10 July

Jason Berken (1-5, 6.25, 1.661 WHIP)

Berken is a lean (175 lbs, 6' 0" tall) righthander who underwent Tommy John surgery years ago, but has recovered quite well.  He has run into some trouble after some possibly flukey success following his late-May callup to the Orioles rotation.  Over eight starts, Berken has pitched 40 1/3 innings, striking out 25 (5.6 K/9) and walking 15 (3.3 BB/9).  In his favour, Berken has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the park so far (just 3 HR), but his batted ball data seem to suggest this dearth of homeruns as being more luck-driven than a result of a repeatable skill (38.9% groundball, 5.8% HR/flyball).  If it is luck-driven, Berken is probably deserving of it, as he has had quite a bit of misfortune on balls that do not leave the park (.345 BABIP), nor has he been particularly lucky stranding batters that do reach (61% strand-rate).  As time goes on, Berken will have trouble keeping his homerun-rate where it is (particularly at hitter-friendly Camden Yards), but as his other luck improves, things should even out a bit for him and his ERA will probably come down a tad from where it is now.  He did have a strong season at AA last season, but at the age of 24 was a little old for the league.

In Berken's eight starts so far, he has PQSed 2, 3, 0, 0, 4, 3, 2 and 0 for a mean of 1.75 and Dominance- and Disaster-rates of 13% and 38%.  Berken's had quite a bit of trouble pitching deep in games, pitching more than five innings just twice so far this season and topping the hundred pitch mark just twice (though he threw 99 once as well).

So far in the majors, lefties have seen a moderately strong platoon advantage against Berken (.337 / .390 / .481; 1.57 K/BB) as compared to righties (.273 / .360 / .416; 1.75 K/BB), though the difference in BABIP (.367 against lefties vs. .317 against righties) seems to have more to do with it than any slight difference in walk-rate or isolated power (.144 against lefties vs. .143 against righties).  Berken was a bit less effective against lefties in the minors, striking out a bit less and walking a bit more, but their advantage was slight at best.

Berken is your classic four-pitch pitcher, throwing a low-90's four-seamer that he mixes up with a decent straight change.  If his fastball had just a bit more life, it would make his change that much better, but unfortunately you can't have everything.  He also throws an average slider and an average curve.

 

11 July

Brad Bergesen (5-3, 3.59, 1.188 WHIP)

Bergesen was covered earlier this season.  Since then, Bergesen has ridden his sinker to a 3.59 ERA and a 1.188 WHIP.  His success comes from his ability to induce grounders at a 52.8% clip, while keeping his walks down (just 23 in 97 2/3 IP, 2.2 BB/9).  He has only struck out 50 (4.8 K/9), but as long as you keep the ball out of the air and you don't issue any free passes, it's all right to pitch to some contact.  Since our write-up, he's turned some heads, see Dave Cameron's quick look here at fangraphs.

Over his 15 starts this season, Bergesen has PQSed 4, 0, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 4, 3, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5 and 4 for a mean of 3.5 and impressive Dominance-/Disaster-rates of 50% and just 7%.  PQS is kind to pitchers who tend to keep the ball in the strike zone and out of the air.  The string that he's run off in his last six starts (the 2 was a complete game five-hitter) is particularly noteworthy (and potentially troubling to us Jays fans).

As mentioned in the previous writeup, Bergesen does not walk righties (Cito, please do not start Bautista), but lefties are another story.  Righties have actually exhibited a better line (.264 / .290 / .415; 4.83 K/BB) than lefties (.236 / .310 / .360; 1.24 K/BB), but luck has had a significant part to play in that (.289 BABIP against righties vs. .240 BABIP against lefties).

Bergesen has mainly stuck to the same formula he had when he started the season, but he's become a bit more comfortable with his change and will challenge lefties out of the zone with it, even when behind in the count.

 

12 July

Jeremy Guthrie (6-8, 5.35, 1.426 WHIP)

Guthrie was also covered in the writeup.  For some reason, Guthrie has had problems keeping the ball on the ground in 2009 (37.6% GroundBall-rate vs. 42.2% career), which has led to a league-leading 20 HR in 101 IP (1.73 HR/9).  Otherwise, Guthrie has not been too bad, though he has lost some of the life on his fastball.  He shouldn't be too bad going forward, but the declining groundball-rate could be a bad sign.  Neither FIP nor xFIP (which normalizes HR-rate) show him to be unlucky so far.

In 18 starts, Guthrie has PQSed 2, 4, 0, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 4, 3, 0, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3 and 0 for a mean of 2.44 and Dominance-/Disaster-rates of 28% and 22%.  Hopefully the Jays can draw his Disaster-rate even with his Dominance-rate.

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Comments

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Halladay and Ricciardi work together behind the scenes to make the Jays contenders for 2011 and beyond

Wouldn’t it be cool if…

Ricciardi traded Halladay for a bunch of really good prospects that would be major league ready by 2011 or 2012.
Halladay would get traded to a contender, where he’d have a good chance to win a WS in 09 and 2010.
After 2010, the Jays no longer have the following current contracts (Halladay 15 M, BJ Ryan 12 M, Rolen 11 M, Overbay 8 M, Bautista 2 M, Mac 2 M, Barajas 2.5 M) for a total of about 55 M off the books. Of course Wells contract goes from 16 M to 26 M and they’d have to try deal with Downs and Frasor becoming free agents. However, there will be substantial savings nonetheless. And one would think that with the Linds, Sniders, Dopiraks, and whoever gets brought in by a Halladay deal would be able to fill the gaps (and then some) from those losses.
With the savings in payroll, and economy likely to turn around by then, the Jays might be able to lure Halladay back for a contract for 2011 and beyond. If he really loves Toronto the way he seems to, he might be interested in coming back, if the Jays could show themselves as contenders by then.
The reason I think this would be cool is that under this scenario, by getting himself traded and returning to the Jays in 2011, Halladay gets to contend for a year and 1/2 and help his future team contend by bringing in some good young talent that would be ready to contribute upon his return.

by REMO on Jul 9, 2009 8:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Pretty sure that any sort of "agreement" they would make would be illegal

But I’m not the resident lawyer.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jul 9, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Certainly it would be unenforceable

If they want him to come back in 2011, they could just offer him the most money in 2011.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Jul 9, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, Halladay's a religious man

and trying to work out a shady deal might make him less likely to return than the same oversized novelty cheque presented honestly.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Jul 9, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hand in hand

I’m pretty sure religion and shady deals go hand in hand…..it’s a mob thing.

by ayjackson on Jul 9, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

none of Halladay at $15M, Rolen at $11M, Mac at $2M, Barajas at $2.5M or Bautista at $2M are overpriced, IMHO

Overbay at $8M is a little rich

BJ Ryan contract is a bad one obviously

by aagoodfella on Jul 9, 2009 10:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Halladay

strikes me as a pretty straight shooter

he is a guy who just quietly goes out and does his job and does it well, including making great contributions to the community (are you paying attention Mike Toth?)

he is not likely to go out and engage in duplicitous deal making

at this point, his motivation is to win a WS. He would like to do it with TO, but if not possible, than WS with another team is fine.

Given what he has put into the sport, he is pretty much entitled.

by aagoodfella on Jul 9, 2009 10:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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