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Around SBN: Raiders' GM Begins The Purge

Alex Rios

In the next 24 hours we will learn if what the Jay's have decided to do with Alex Rios. For those of you who have been in the bush in the interior of BC for the past week (that would be me) and haven't been following the Jays as closely as normal, Rios was claimed off recallable waivers by some team. Everyone is saying the White Sox are the team, so let's go with that.

Now the Jays can do 3 things, pull him back off waivers (the MLB equivalent of your brother offering you a candy then pulling his hand back when you reach for it), work out a trade with the White Sox (I'll give you the candy if you give me that baseball card) or let the Sox have him (go ahead have the candy, oh but I promised to pay the candy for the next few years, you owe it now) (yeah I guess the metaphor falls apart there).

So what will the Jays do? I'd imagine they are trying to work out a trade for him at the moment, but Rios isn't exactly having a great season so his trade value is pretty low at the moment, compared to what it has been. I'm not sure what we would get for him in a trade. 

Would they just let him go? Alex is in the 2nd year of a 7 year contract, he is making $5.9 million this year, $9.7 million next, $12 million in 2011-12, $12.5 in 2013-14 and in 2015 there is a $13.5 million club option. Alex has a no trade clause this year and next so he would have to agree to go. At the time it was signed it didn't seem like a bad contract, but the economy has changed in the past couple of years.

Let's take a look at his career:

Year Age G     AB   R      H  2B   3B HR RBI  SB  CS  BB     SO      BA    OBP    SLG   OPS   OPS+
2004 23 111 426   55 122  24   7    1     28  15     3    31      84   .286   .338   .383   .720      85
2005 24 146 481   71 126  23    6  10    59 14      9    28     101 .262   .306   .397   .703      84
2006 25 128 450   68 136  33    6  17    82 15      6    35     89   .302    .349   .516  .865     120
2007 26 161 643 114 191  43    7  24   85 17       4    55   103   .297   .354   .498  .852     122
2008 27 155 635   91 185  47    8  15   79 32       8   44     112   .291  .337 .  461  .798      111
2009 28 108 436   52 115  25    2  14   62 19       3    31     78    .264  .317    .427  .744      94
 

 

His first couple of seasons, I really didn't think we had anything, I thought he looked like a 4th outfielder, good defense but not enough bat for a corner spot. Then he started off the 2006 season just great, clubbing home runs, until about mid-season when he somehow picked up a staph infection and missed more than a month and when he came back he didn't have the strength he had earlier in the season. It was very understandable.

2007 he started off great again and he put on a show at the All-Star game home run derby. Whether that effected his swing or not he didn't have as great a second half, but you could see why the Jays liked him and we all figured he'd take another step forward and become a 30 home run type. He also picked up that big contract, the Jays doing what many teams had, buying out his first few free agent seasons. The last couple of years the power has dropped off. Last year was a decent year but we expected more power, this year he hasn't been good.

He can be irritating. There  moments he doesn't appear to have his head in the game, which, if he was hitting 30+ homers, we'd likely laugh off. Then there are bizarre statements to the press, saying 'he wouldn't change his daughters diapers' or 'he doesn't set goals at the start of the season' just come off wrong and give up the impression he is self-centered at best. He also gives the impression, from the outside at least, that he isn't very teachable.

I get the feeling that if he had one of the old style managers like Billy Martin or Earl Weaver, he'd be dead by now or at very least doctors would have the interesting task of trying to remove Martin's cowboy boot from his butt. You do get the feeling the guy needs a kick occasionally and we don't know that Cito doesn't do that, behind closed doors. Cito isn't the type to brag about it afterwards.

He has been the reverse of Vernon Wells this season: he is hitting great at home (12 homers, .292/.357/.519) and lousy on the road (2 homers, .237/.278/.339). He hasn't had home/road splits like that before. Maybe he isn't as macho as he'd like us to believe and he misses his kid when he is away. If he was hitting as well on the road as at home, we'd be coming close to that 30 home run season we all think he has in him. It does make you wonder what would happen to his numbers if he did go to another team.

The trouble for the Jays is that we all know he has that big season in him and if they let him go, he might just have it. Then you look like a fool. But if you keep him and he doesn't have that big season, well you look like a fool. It would be tough to give him up for nothing. Of course, in reality you wouldn't be giving him up for nothing. You would have all that money that you aren't paying him. In the 'new baseball economy' that could buy you a few players or help you resign Roy Halladay. If, and that's a big if, Rogers lets you invest that saving back into players. If you keep him and he has that big year and he leads us to the playoff, that is worth a lot more than his contract.

The other question is, if he is gone, who plays right field. Simple Travis Snider, but then they haven't called him up to fill the black hole that is left field, would they call him up to fill right field? Or would we be treated to watching Kevin Millar play right? Honest, you would have to sedate me to get me to watch that.

Anyway, let's have the poll:

Poll
If it were up to you, would you let Alex Rios go in the waiver claim?
Yes
168 votes
No
102 votes

270 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 52 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

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I dont think theyre going to let him go, and i wouldnt either

Hes starting to play a bit better right now, along with vernon. Hes great defensively and at his worst he’ll give you 15-20HR, bat .280, and steal 15-20 bases over a season. Not really something you’d want to give up.
I dont think he’ll become the superstar we hoped for, but hes really not as bad as people make him out to be.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Aug 10, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd wait a few years

If he doesn’t have a break out first half where you can trade him for something decent then kick himaside

i don’t know if its just me , but most games you can really tell he’s not swinging hard, his head isn’t even lookin down on the ball, and in the field he will just jog to them ( rarely but still)

Buy low..sell high..when it stays low..get the hec outta there

by bowling_kid25 on Aug 10, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

If you can trade him for good value, than I might go for it. This is a bit of a risky strategy but assumes that you put Snider in right, Wells in CF and Lind in LF. (Wells will be busy). The risk is in relying on Snider and in compromising team defense.

However, if the Jays traded for something good like Alexei Ramirez and used the savings to pick up another roster player like Delgado (everyday DH), the net impact on the team should be a positive.

Problem is that this is a lot of ifs including (1) getting trade done (2) Snider getting called up (3) Snider holding MLB job and (4) picking up good roster player(s) in the offseason.

I would probably not leave Rios on waivers but might trade him if the deal was good. However, according to what I have read about Chi Sox, snagging Rios off waivers was as much about keeping another team in their division from grabbing him as it is about actually picking Rios up. If I was a betting man, I would say 85% probability Rios remains a Jay.

by aagoodfella on Aug 10, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Rios is frustrating

I get the sense that the Jays are a little tired of him, but not to the point that they would just let him go for nothing. The doubles (and triples) have fallen way off this year, and that’s a big problem, but he is actually hitting more home runs and seems to be hitting better now.

The strangest thing has been his defense – his UZR numbers last year were incredible, both in right and centre, and he had always been a very good defensive right fielder. So while I wouldn’t expect a repeat of 2008’s defensive numbers every year, I wonder if this year isn’t a blip on the radar, since Rios is way too young to be undergoing defensive decline in a corner OF spot.

With Wells continuing to deteriorate defensively (though his numbers have normalized a little recently), I’d prefer to keep Rios and use him more in center and use Wells more in a corner spot than just let Rios go. On the other hand, if he could bring back a good young player I wouldn’t be opposed to moving him.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Time to start a campaign!

Millar for outfielder!

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Aug 10, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Get Ramirez as compensation...

There’s no question this is a great opportunity to unload a huge part of our payroll, but should try to receive some compensation for him. We are most likely on the verge of losing Marco Scutaro to free agency after this year and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have Alexei Ramirez come this way. Snider could be called up to replace Rios for the remaining of the season, while Ramirez could rotate playing third, 1st and possibly a little bit in left field until the end of the season….

"Sports is something you know, not something you should preach.'

by valter on Aug 10, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Ramirez is only an average SS

Not really someone you want long-term

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Aug 10, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think I'd rather re-up Scoot as long as it wasn't too expensive

even though he’s older, he has been worth a ton more this year, and was worth more last year than Alexei as well, if you’re worried about him having a career year this year.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I voted Yes reluctantly

It’s not as if the Jays are sprouting OF prospects that need playing time but I just think that Alex’s time with the Jays needs to end. I think the power he showed for two 1/2 seasons were fool’s gold (while I don’t entirely blame JP for trying to lock up a player early to save money later, it’s a tactic that seems to have blown up in his face twice) and the rest of his tools seem to be dulling as well.

If the team did not have VW’s contract, I’d say keep Rios and try to move VW. But we know that is not going to happen so this seems to be the other alternative.

A Lind-Wells-Snider outfield doesn’t fill me with joy defensively but perhaps a new GM could turn some of those many lefty pitchers we have into a decent OF. I don’t trust JP to make a good trade.

by siggian on Aug 10, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions  

am i reading this incorrectly? are you suggesting that the Jays use their pitchers as outfielders?

by aagoodfella on Aug 10, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

though we are actually trying to turn a left-handed pitcher into an outfielder

at the moment, with non-disastrous results thusfar. After an awful May, Loewen has gotten better each month. For a hitter in his first ever taste of pro ball, he had a solid June, a very good July, and is raking (albeit in a tiny sample size) so far in August.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

"I dont trust JP to make a good trade"

He did make by far the best trade at the deadline this season.

I know everyone loves Rolen, but we absolutely fleeced the Reds in that trade.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Aug 10, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

maybe on paper

we hardly need pitchers..course can never get enough

we loss a guy whos amazing to watch and prob puts fans in the stands

we can only hope Edin Blossoms

by bowling_kid25 on Aug 10, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

we're not winning anytime soon most likely

Rolen is on the decline, hes old and overpaid. I like the guy, he plays good D, but hes hardly someone we want around long term when the team is rebuilding.
EE has a chance to progress a lot, hes young and has potential. Plus we get one of the games top50 or so prospects and a solid bullpen arm along with him… AND save 6million dollars or so.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Aug 10, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, credit where credit is due

I agree that the deadline trade seems promising so far, but I’m not inspired by JP’s overall track record. I think he’s had 8 years to implement his 5 year plan and the achievements have been underwhelming. It’s more about the seeming lack of plan these days more than anything else.

by siggian on Aug 10, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do wonder what part of his track record is so bad...

he got Downs, Scoot, Overbay and Accardo in trades for very little. Did well in the Rolen/Glaus trade. Picked up Lind, Hill, Snider, Romero, Rzep and Cecil in the draft. I’m sure I’m missing guys but most moves seem to have worked out. The track record for trades seems to be pretty good. He does things that drive me crazy but then that’s life.

by Tom Dakers on Aug 10, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, he's not been terrible

So, OK he can make the trade. I’m still tired of his act and I want him gone.

by siggian on Aug 10, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I say no way, they need something for him, giving him away and then saying

you’ll use the money to sign Roy isn’t the best logic. Roy would probably be less inclined to sign with the Jays when they are giving their players away, it doesn’t exactly show that the team wants to compete. Also who knows if Rogers even lets the Rios money be re-invested in the team. They need to get something usefull coming back or forget it IMO.

by ClintB on Aug 10, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions  

I said No,

I am all for trading him if we can get something for him, letting him walk for nothing is a no from me.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Aug 10, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Rios

Looking the stats only 5 other players in all of baseball have more HR and SB then Rios those being:

Mark Reynolds
Hanley Ramirez
Curtis Granderson
Ian Kinsler
Matt Kemp

Of those 5 only 3 (Reynolds, Kemp and Hanley) have more RBI then Rios and he’s having an ‘off’ year by most accounts. So you let this player go for nothing????

I’m not saying keep him at all costs, but I’d have to expect the Jays to get some kind of a useful prospect back in return for Rios.

by bunner on Aug 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Thank you

People think Rios is garbage but when you look at his stats and compare them around the league, especially for his position, and then keep in mind his defence, hes hardly dead weight out there.

and all of this in an off year.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Aug 10, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is one of those times where you're comparing Rios to players a lot better than him

By wOBA

Rios: .329
Reyonds: .420
Ramirez: .417
Granderson: .357
Kinsler: .350
Kemp: .381

So Rios is the weakest hitter of them all. Assuming he’s as good defensively as he was last year and not this year, he is probably comparable to most of those guys relative to defense/positioning.

I like Rios and I don’t think they should just let him go by any means, but you are cherry-picking around Rios’s strong suit offensively (HR and Steals) and blatantly ignoring a glaring shortcoming (OBP).

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 10, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rios is good enough

at getting on base during his good years. He’s having an off-year this season, for sure, and getting on will likely never be his strong point, but between 2006-2008 his OBP was .347, not fantastic but certainly not bad – especially when you consider that his skills on the basepaths makes him somewhat more likely to score once he gets on.

Not that I’m disagreeing with you that those hitters have been far better this year, but just pointing out that Rios hasn’t been an out-making machine over his career.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do agree with you there

But getting on is probably Rios’s biggest weakness at the plate and HR and SB do not do a good job of taking that into consideration (I guess you need to be on to steal, but a lot of stolen base leaders frequently have low OBPs).

When Rios is playing well, he combines and speed and power well, but this “ranking system” puts Rios ahead of a lot of corner outfielders who are obviously a ton better. I don’t think that was the intent, but it’s very easy to interpret it that way.

As I’ve said all along, I don’t think the Jays should just let someone claim him, but the above list does not even come close to accurately reflecting his actual value.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 10, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

a better comp for Rios, in fact, perhaps the best comp, is Carl Crawford. They’re the same age and have almost the exact same career wOBA (Rios at .342 and CC at .344). Both are guys who were expected to develop to the next level power-wise and it hasn’t really happened. Crawford is hurt a little by the fact that the Rays in the early aughts were terrible so he was up too early, but Rios was arguably up too early as well.

Both have virtually the exact same career wOBA, line drive rate, BABIP, and OBP. Rios has a substantial advantage power-wise (.166 Career ISO to Crawford’s .142) but part of that is that Crawford was up so young. Crawford steals a lot more bases but Rios is probably the better defensive player (though Crawford is also very good) – he plays a more challenging position at least, thanks to his arm – and has the added value of being able to play centrefield.

Crawford is clearly having the better year this season, but last season it was just the opposite. So would folks just cut Crawford loose at the same salary if the Jays had him instead?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Is that true that if they let him go through waiver’s the white sox pay the entire salary? We should try this trick with Vernon.

by BigTimeBlueJayFan on Aug 10, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Like anyone would claim Vernon.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Aug 10, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

definitely

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

no without doc and rios....

we’d still be around $70 million at best.

by Tom Dakers on Aug 10, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

don't forget we're still paying Beej next season

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can't really call it a good move, but minimizes the impact of a really bad move

I think we can all agree that Rios’ contract was not a good one, in the sense that there’s a minimal chance he provides $11+ million worth of value next year, let alone in 2014.

Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but in summary:

Best Move: If J.P. traded Rios in the offseason after 2007 when he was a 26-year-old two time All-Star who opened some eyes at the home run derby. That’s when his value was at its peak, and all those Cain/Lincecum for Rios rumors were floated. Alternatively, he could have traded Wells after the 2006 season instead of signing him to the monster extension and moved Rios over to CF where his plus skills at a more difficult defensive position would have increased his relative value.

Good Move: If J.P would have simply let Rios play out his arbitration years, realizing that tying down two outfield spots with high value contracts until 2014 is a bad idea when you’ve already got two young OF studs quickly rising through the minors in Lind and Snider. With six years of service, Rios would have been a free agent in the upcoming offseason anyways, but at least then we would have gotten compensation picks when he signed somewhere else or could have converted him into better assets at the trade deadline if he didn’t have the $60 million anchor attached to him.

Adequate Move: Getting bupkis for a young player still in his prime who you spent years developing through your system, but at the same time not being bound to pay him twice his market value for the next five years.

by ChrisU on Aug 10, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd like to see who takes his spot in the lineup next season

before deciding. We have Snider and Lind, sure, but there’s still a big hole in the lineup, and another big one coming when Overbay leaves.

Alex Rios’ value over the past three years: $12.1 million (2006 and in only 2/3 of a season), $18.9 Million, $24.6 Million. This year he’s only been worth $5 million so far, but I’ll non-bet you he’s worth $11 million next year.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's at the pre-crash valuation of $5M/win

How much did wins cost this offseason?

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Aug 10, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

great question

my bet would extend to whatever the valuation is next season

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 10, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm

I’d make that non-bet, but only if his WAR was calculated as if he was a RF in 2010. His value will get a big boost as the above-average defensive CF he’ll likely be on the White Sox, but if he’d have stayed a Jay, it’s likely he’d have been a RF again next year.

by ChrisU on Aug 11, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's interesting

realistically, if Rios was going to stay a Jay, he should have been playing centre and Wells playing in a corner in 2010. I can understand your point, though, that it was unlikely to happen. Though you never know – Wells has battled injuries the past two seasons (though not this one). Anyway, that seems fair. It’s a non-bet.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 11, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

i believe they got a bag of balls worth $59M

by aagoodfella on Aug 11, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

only if Rios has no value

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 11, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

balance sheet 101:

Asset = Rios = expected market value of expected performance
Liability = Contract obligation = $59M

if Asset > Liability than dumping Rios impairs value
if Liability > Asset than dumping Rios creates value

The liability value is a known quantity at $59M. The asset value is subjective based on what Rios is expected to deliver in terms of performance and what will be the cost of that performance, both over the lifetime of the contract.

If Jays feel that

(1) the price for Rios’ expected performance that the team originally paid has fallen or will fall over the life of the contract or
(2) the performance expectation for Rios has diminished and there has not been offsetting wage inflation or
(3) any combination of (1) and (2) that implies a lesser value than the $59M liability,

than they have made the correct decision in dropping Rios, regardless if they receive nothing back in exchange.

So as an example of (1), the Jays now owe Rios $59M until end of contract. But, if the Jays think they can go out and sign someone with the same performance, either in a single contract or multiple short contracts or whatev, for $49M, than dumping Rios has just added $10M to team value.

As an example of (2), prices have not changed, but Jays now expect Rios to perform at a lower level than their original expectations. The Jays feel that they can acquire that lower performance level in the open market for $50M, than dumping Rios has just added $9M to team value.

As an example of (3), Jays now expect Rios to perform at a lower level than originally expected. Back when they signed Rios, they could have signed another hypothetical player of that lower performance level for a remaining contract value of $55M. Moreover, since then, the slower economy has also led to lower prices for players so that the price level for the diminished performance has fallen to $48M. By dumping Rios, the Jays have just added $11M to team value.

Whether or not the Jays get anything “physical” back (ie: player, prospects, future considerations whatev) is irrelevant.

by aagoodfella on Aug 11, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

right

 I don’t think we’re disagreeing. The Jays essentially traded Rios for $59 million dollars they don’t have to pay him. As an example, if Rios is worth, say, $50 million over the life of his contract, the Jays saved $9 million (which sounds like a lot but over that many years it’s not).

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 11, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

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