John Sickels Updates On Blue Jays' Top 20 Prospects
by hugo on Aug 13, 2009 11:13 AM EDT
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Earlier this season, Minor League Ball's John Sickels took a look at the Jays' farm system and set forth a list of the Jays' top 20 prospects. Now, with just a few weeks left in the minor-league season, Sickels brings us an update on how each has progressed, giving us the good and bad news. He's still quite high on Travis Snider and Brett Cecil. Some other high/low points:
- David Cooper, 1B, Grade B: Hitting .255/.333/.372 for Double-A New Hampshire. Very disappointing, no power, mediocre batting average and OBP, looks like I overrated him. BB/K ratio is decent, so he still has a chance to improve but needs to make progress quickly in '10.
- J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade B-: Hitting .224/.272/.409 for Triple-A Las Vegas. Poor strike zone judgment is holding production back. Good with the glove but has needs big adjustments with the bat.
- Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C+: 10-5, 3.66 with 90/44 K/BB in 116 major league innings. One of the best rookie pitchers in baseball, somewhat surprising after a mediocre minor league career. The talent was always there, but he lacked consistency before.
- Mark Rzepczynski, LHP, Grade C+: 2.86 ERA with 104/40 K/BB in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 4.38 ERA with 37/19 K/BB in 37 innings in the majors. Looks good so far.
Generally, things aren't looking great on the hitting side, though I do think Cooper seems to be improving and you have to give him credit for starting his first full professional season at AA, a tough test for any minor-league hitter. In addition, there are some hitters Sickels' didn't rank that have shown substantial improvement this season - Moises Sierra, Johermyn Chavez, Adam Loewen, and a couple of others. On the pitching side, the system itself looks a bit thin but only because Romero, Cecil, Ray, Mills, and Rzepczynski all made their major-league debuts this year. In particular the trio of Romeo, Cecil, and Rzepczynski look like an excellent threesome on the left-handed pitching side - but Rzepczynski has a lot more still to prove and Romero and Cecil have to avoid the dread injury bug as they start to shoulder big league workloads. Also, the system will get an infusion of pitching if the Jays can sign their 2009 draftees - Jenkins, Paxton, Eliopolous - which is much needed.
The truth is, the Jays system is really interesting in that it never gets very highly ranked by people who rank prospects systems, but it has been extremely consistent in developing major-league players for the Jays. It's not flashy, but it has been an effective source of cheap, quality major-league players. Halladay, Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski, Hill, Lind, League, Wells (a week ago we could have added Rios to the list) - all are Jays draftees, and of course don't forget Marcum, Janssen, Litsch, and McGowan. Many other current Jays have spent significant development time in the Jays' minor-league system.
Of course, once the minor-league season rounds up, Bluebird Banter will take a look at the system's season in review and review and update our own top 30 prospects list. Lots of changes, I think we'll find.
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I always thought it was the defense that was going to hold JP back… guess I was wrong.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 13, 2009 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If his defense is that good....
I’d be winning to let him find his bat.
by Tom Dakers on Aug 13, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he does have power
he is slugging almost 200 points over average … on the Jays, only Hill, Overbay and Lind have achieved that this year — good company
if he can get his average up (and maintain that power) he could be good, although that is a tall order
by aagoodfella on Aug 13, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he won't hit home runs (or much of anything else) in the majors
until he learns to recognize and hit breaking balls.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 13, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
apparently a common theme among MiLB players
by aagoodfella on Aug 13, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and perhaps a good argument for keeping Vespa around as a coach after his playing years are behind him … assuming he is interested
by aagoodfella on Aug 13, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually, I think
Marco would make a terrific coach. But I could also see him being a guy who wants to work with players back home when his playing days are over
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 13, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep, probably true … but then, a good scout maybe
of course, he would still have to be re-signed etc ….
by aagoodfella on Aug 13, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really hope we re-sign Scoot...
…he and Rolen were the main lights of the offense that kept me following this team earlier in the year. (OK, Lind and Hill are pretty cool too—but I think they need to K a lot less and/or BB more…)
by tameszu on Aug 13, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Scoots as much as the next guy, but if the team is still not sure on where to go for 2010, is it really prudent for the Jays to re-sign a 34 year old player to a multi-year deal after a career year? I don’t think the Jays would be too unhappy in offering him arbitration and recouping two draft picks at this point.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
by bkblades on Aug 13, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the rub,
How many teams do you think are lining up to give up a first round pick to sign Scutaro? We may luck out and have us be his fallback option. I would be fine with a 2 year deal with a 3rd year club option (low buyout) as long as it is decent price.
That being said we kinda need a stopgap option at SS for the next 2-3 years depending on Justin Jackson and Scutaro seems to be a good fit for that stopgap regardless.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 13, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A 2 year deal seems to be fine, but would Scutaro want that knowing this is his absolute last chance to cash out? I don’t know. But judging by the minor league system for the Jays and the still unsigned players, the two high draft picks would look really good for JP or the new GM especially, to put a stamp on the organizational depth.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
by bkblades on Aug 13, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember the two year deal Scoot already signed with us?
The one that paid him less total than he would have got this year alone if he’d just gone year to year? I’m still not convinced cashing out is Scutaro’s goal.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Aug 13, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps, but that was a different time ago before he was a starter for the Jays. I would be hard-pressed to think that Scutaro would re-sign with the Jays for less or equal money this time. Again, I don’t think Scoots is one to go money hungry, but I also am not a player who was a bench player for many, many years who finally got a chance to start and excel. If you don’t think money and security isn’t on his mind, I think you’re wrong.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
by bkblades on Aug 13, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
definitely
but it might not be an either/or. We could offer Scutaro a 2 year deal we’d be comfortable with or even just offer him arbitration, and assuming he declined it to test the market, we’d still have a good chance at resigning him – if we wanted to – because we’d have the lowest cost (not having to give up the picks). On the other hand, if someone wants to pony up a lot of money/years to sign him, we could take the picks. It’s sort of a win-win, though replacing him at SS might be tough.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 13, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Scutaro would want more but the question is if he can get it.
He might end up like Orlanda Cabrea and not sign until very late… the Type A status scares teams off because they don’t want to give up their picks for him.
That may help and bring down the price for him to a point where I would be comfortable. You have to think if Scoots gets a comparable contract between the Jays and another team providing a starting SS opportunity he would pick the Jays.. provided it wasn’t a chance to play for his hometown team or playoff team etc.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 13, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His hometown is in Venezuela
I don’t think they’ll be able to beat the Jays’ offer.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Aug 13, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HAH
Meant his favorite team…. but even then he might not have one ….
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 13, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the fans loved him in Oakland
but he seems happy in T-Dot too
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 13, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AJ seemed happy here too
With the more laid back atmosphere and Vernon to joke around with (pies and what not). Not to mention Doc.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 13, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small push-back
…I think in Scoot’s specific case re-signing may make some sense. His offensive numbers arguably hit career best levels not ‘cause of some sketchy substances he ingested, a la all of those miraculous second careers during the late ’90s, but rather due to coaching and technical adjustments to his batting. As he’s a contact hitter with light power, as power’s the attribute that’s most affect by age, sans PEDs, the years won’t take as much of a toll.
His speed and range might go a bit but his defensive skills are already above average, so it’s less likely that we’d improve on him with a younger guy anyway.
by tameszu on Aug 13, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should just start referring to bad baseball contracts as "Ricciardis."
Not sure if this has been posted, but what a skewering JP takes on SI.com about worst contracts in baseball.
Link is
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/08/12/worst.contracts/1.html
by willie stargell on Aug 13, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah has been talked about....
course when the guy starts with ‘JP can’t do anything right’. He starts the article saying he won’t count anyone where the player got injured then decides to count Ryan because, well, it fits his JP does nothing right theory. He doesn’t consider defense ability so he picks Rios even though it isn’t that bad a contract. And then says Barry Zito’s contract isn’t that bad because after two awful years Zito is just having a bad year this year. It was the usual thing when you start off with a theory and then try to bend the facts to meet it.
by Tom Dakers on Aug 13, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The about the Rios deal is...
…either it was a horrible deal a bit more than a year ago, so it was the right move to dump it for nothing now…
OR
…it was a not that bad of a deal a bit more than a year ago, in which case it was senseless move to ditch him for nothing now.
(Yeah, you could argue that dumping Rios now was more of a call by Rogers in the back room, but that doesn’t speak very well for JP’s leadership bureaucratic management skills either…)
by tameszu on Aug 13, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is a third option
It was a decent deal at the time with Rios projected skillset. And since then something has changed with Rios and he is not projected to do the same things anymore…… So the deal no longer is a decent one.
Regardless I still don’t like the idea of letting Rios walk but I understand the rational behind it.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 13, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think the facts really bear that out?
It’s not like Rios got horribly injured or had a truly outlandishly improbable outcome based on his past performance—it seems to me that the way he’s played this year has been fairly unimpressive, but not so much that you could say it was a crazy deviation or anything…or do you think that the way he’s played has really been so shocking that you could say that the original projection was totally wrong?
by tameszu on Aug 14, 2009 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's pretty unusual to decline in your
Age 27 and Age 28 seasons with no injury. Not completely unheard of, but those are typically a hitter’s best years so I don’t think anyone would have predicted it.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 14, 2009 7:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think after many years of people saying “The power will come the power will come” I think the scouts and people around baseball started to realize that maybe just maybe it wasn’t going to come and part of the 5 tool player that RIos was supposed to be all of sudden isn’t there anymore. And it wasn’t just this year, it was last year too, the year before was the staph infection so Mulligan.
Not too mention he doesn’t seem to use his speed as much to his advantage on the basepaths. He should have way more stolen bases and shouldn’t be caught nearly as much as he is.
So yes I can see how the projections changed quite a bit. Especially if the rumours were true that he hasn’t put for an effort to improve aspects of his game (although I am fully aware that may just be the companys line at the moment but when it came from Cito I thought it might carry more weight)
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2009 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I had to predict.....
I would say Rios hits 25 HRs two more times at least on this contract
by T.Haynes on Aug 14, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would be nice for him but I don’t see it, especially since he has yet to do it in his career.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rios has a great SB/CS ratio this year
19/3
and career 112/33 (77%) is also quite good.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Aug 14, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Start using stats that support my theories
Or I’ll beat you with a stick
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
shilelagh?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Aug 14, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bingo
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But in all seriousness, I didnt look it up and I thought the ratio was worse then that, but I think he should have been stealing more over the past couple years.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they did not dump Rios for nothing .. they dumped him for $59M
by aagoodfella on Aug 13, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, they dumped him for nothing...
…they were looking to obtain (and received) exactly nothing: no Rios contract and no Rios.
If you count the $59 million as a pure “gain”, then it seems obvious that JP shouldn’t have committed in the first place.
by tameszu on Aug 14, 2009 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you owned a car with a bluebook value of $10k and traded it to me for that value, so I gave you $10k in cash and you gave me the car, than you sold me the car for $10k
if you owned a car with a bluebook value of $10k and traded it to me for that value, so I assumed your $10k loan on the car and you gave me the car, than you sold me the car for $10k
the Jays shipped Rios to White Sox and White Sox assumed $59M liability. Whether or not there was any gain on the transaction will ultimately depend on whether Rios produces $59M of baseball value over the remaining contract life. The Jays think that they could not extract $59M of value, so they sold him for $59M. The White Sox think they can extract $59M or more of value, as such they bought him for $59M. Such is the nature of a free market system
It is a simple transaction. Jays sold Rios’ contract for $59M — not nothing.
by aagoodfella on Aug 14, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, I didn't really feel like getting into the theory...
…but the $59 M liability is a contractual commitment, not a simple debt liability as in your car example.
Unlike a debt for a good, a personal services contract is contingent on Rios’ performance, etc., and the value of the commitment has to be discounted over the lifetime of the commitment (unlike the loan that would presumably bear interest calculated at some market rate).
Relatedly, the “getting nothing” refers to the control/option value of having the right to hold or deal Rios’ contract—which we in fact gave up for nothing. You can buy a car from a large number of dealers or individuals on the market, and there isn’t a set of default rules over how the contract for a new car must be constructed; in contrast the market for baseball talent is not a free market system: there are a limited number of providers of talent, and a key resource (arguably THE key resource) in this market are prospects, who are distributed via drafts and whose transactability is limited by mandatory rules regarding arbitration, etc.
by tameszu on Aug 14, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree
while it is certainly true that we no longer have to pay Rios, that’s not the same thing as saying that someone paid us $59 million for him.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 14, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
feel free to share that point of view with the tax man some day
by aagoodfella on Aug 14, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m the Taxman
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 14, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great, than you wont mind if I record $0 value for everything I sell by having my buyers assume my liabilities - suddenly I foresee all my taxable gains disappearing into the atmosphere
by aagoodfella on Aug 14, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sounds like a plan
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 14, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm the Taxman, and your working for no one but me
TAXMAN
by Tom Dakers on Aug 14, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what a great song
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 14, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
since the topic has been raised, how could the Jays avoid paying Rios (withoug waiver) the $59M as has been suggested in these posts. If the Jays can do that, why not employ the same strategy to avoid paying VW’s contract?
by aagoodfella on Aug 14, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jays can only avoid paying Rios because someone claimed him.
no one is going to claim Wells. I’m sure he’s been on the waiver list all year.
by Tom Dakers on Aug 14, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so for all practical purposes the Jays cannot circumvent the $59M obligation of Rios except by putting him on waivers
what is the value of having somebody take away a $59M obligation? well, $59M.
by taking Rios away from the Jays, the White Sox eliminated the $59M obligation. So what is that worth? $59M …..
Really, not sure why that concept is so hard to grasp.
by aagoodfella on Aug 14, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree...
Just because they got rid of the 59 million dollar price tag doesn’t necessarily mean that they don’t think he will produce 59 million of baseball value… this could just be a salary dump (not going to spend that money on other assets), or JP thinks that he can get more value with other player(s).
by T.Haynes on Aug 14, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
I am officially withdrawn from the valuation of Rios salary dump debate
I have another question though ….
Does anyone yet know who is coming up for Accardo? I have not been able to find anything yet.
by aagoodfella on Aug 14, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a cheque for 59 Million….
I try to get out and they keep pulling me back in!
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He originally had Rios as the second worst contract in baseball, until he was taken to task by a few commentators. Now, I don’t necessarily disagree with everything Pos says, but he had a huge bias already coming in and as a result, his analysis was more based on personal feelings, rather than factual analysis. Nothing wrong with that, but he presented as more than opinion based at the start.
Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell
by bkblades on Aug 13, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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