Defending JP
by boo15749 on Aug 13, 2009 1:56 PM EDT
109 comments
It's getting really hard. I'm a huge homer (am for all my teams) and so I pretty much at every opportunity defend the team, but the Rios thing (he was my favourite player since his rookie year) is just making it a lot tougher.
You can defend the Vernon deal by saying it was a move to prevent alienation of the fan base. You can defend the Rios deal by saying he was a 2-time All-Star. The Thomas deal... I guess we needed a DH? I guess we needed a closer and signed BJ for way more than even a good BJ should ever cost?
Anyway this is mostly motivated by TSN's recent comments that while JP is certainly good at some things - he has an uncanny ability to make something from nothing (Scoot, Accardo, even Richmond to an extent though that was a signing) and he's maneuvered quite well through smaller contracts (the Hill deal jumps out) but he has yet to sign a good big contract. Likely that's a lot of fan criticism which makes a large contract harder to defend (yeah he's good, but is he worth $___?). Anyway, I just need some evidence one way or another. Should I just stop defending him? Get some pleasure out of anger towards someone else? Or is there something I'm missing here...
Please help!
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He signed Roy Halladay twice
those don’t count as big contracts? Hill’s contract isn’t small either.
Big Contracts hardly ever work out to be good in the fan's eye's
BJ’s contract wasn’t only that we needed a closer, it also sent a message and helped us net Glaus and Burnett a week or two later.
Thomas’ contract…. ummm…. I got nothing…
Rios contract was defending as a great pre-emptive signing at the time. Is it JPs fault that Rios declined after the contract? Everyone in baseball had this guy pegged as all-star.
Vernons deal has a lot to do with Rogers as much as JP. Plus on a yearly basis its the same as Torii Hunters, and given Wells middle of the order power and gold glove defense at the time it made sense (on a per year avg basis) but the length of the contract is what made me choke.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Thomas’ contract was a Mencherson on a grand scale. That is, hoping to squeeze out a productive year or two out of a fading veteran. JP misread the upsurge that Thomas had in Oakland as a plateau in his level of performance instead of it being a blip in an otherwise steady decline.
I don’t think it was that bad a signing for the first year but, because the Jays needed to start fast to keep up with NY and Boston, by the time Thomas got rolling, the Jays were already out of it and Thomas’ numbers became irrelevant.
First things first. I don’t like JP as a GM but I’m willing to concede that he’s not terrible. In fact, I’m willing to accept that he is average. He has his share of good moves and bad moves.
The real problem is that in order to compete with New York and Boston without their payrolls, the Jays need to have a better-than-average GM.
I think we have 8 years worth of evidence that JP is not better-than-average.
You know I agree with pretty much everything you said. He hasn’t been terrible like some people make out but he hasn’t been great either.
It’s time for a change regardless and that is pretty much ensured with a new president coming in
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
very fair points
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
JP may be average objectively...
…but he should get a serious negative adjustment for having too freakin’ big of a mouth and letting crap come out of it that creates much more drama than is necessary.
For a team that’s only made a couple of significant moves since the beginning of the season, it seems like JP’s name—rather than the product on the field—is in the lead paragraph of newspaper stories WAY too much.
Obv. Halladay is exhibit #1: if JP was only going to consider moving Halladay for a blockbuster give, then he should’ve kept his cakehole shut and tried his best tamp down any talk until he received a serious indication that there existed a buyer willing to meet his demands. Instead, he made it a freakin’ month-long circus, where no one was sure if the Jays were going to go keep their ace or go into rebuilding mode. That can’t be good for team or fan morale.
He came out and said it was going to need to be a blockbuster to land Halladay. A few teams inquired and he told them the price…
How is that confusing and made it so that no one was sure if they would move him?
If anything the only reason there was confusion was because the Media kept saying ooooohhh hes gonna be traded just you wait and see and then he wasn’t and they were all left looking stunned and confused because they were so wrong. (That’s right, I’m looking at you Rosenthal you big bag of hot air)
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Must be the first time anyone's ever called Rosenthal big
and this is coming from someone who somewhat resembles a dwarf!
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
mostly just from the shoulders up
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Why did he do it so publicly?
Its not like he had to tell the media. He still has to trade him, but the price is just going to be lower now.
what does it matter that he did it publically?
and why does the price have to be lower now? More teams could be in on it in the summer and things can be done a little more thoughtfully.
It will be lower because...
1.5 seasons of Halladay is worth more than one, or a half season.
Very interesting article on the Halladay deal: Highly recommend the read.
And in the offseason if the Jays allow teams to talk with Halladay re: contract extension all of sudden his price hasn’t dropped.
Not to mention more teams could in off-season such as the Mets or anyteam that is a favorite to win this year and bombs out. Can you imagine the pressure in LA or Boston to pick up another top player if they miss the playoffs or bomb out?
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Good point
I’m just worried we end up with a Carlos Gomez like haul for Halladay…
I don't see why it would be lower when you have more teams in on the deal.
What I’d hope is that JP again figures what he thinks would be acceptable and wait for a team to reach that. If not, it really doesn’t hurt the team to have Doc pitching for us.
good article … i have to admit, i probably would have accepted the Phillies counteroffer
that said, there is still opportunity here
it is possible that JP may trade Halladay in the off-season conditional on a contract extension — if so the Jays could get something with quite a bit of value back. Of course, the possibility of that alternative is diminished by Halladay’s preference to try free agency. However, if it is a strong team, Halladay may agree.
Also the Jays could get something at next year’s deadline.
Also, the Jays could re-sign Halladay, although this is likely the least probably outcome.
I would reconstruct it differently...
…and my issue isn’t “confusion” per se. It’s about creating a big unecessary media story, all centred around “will JP trade Halladay or won’t he”?
I don’t want to bother with recreating the timeline, but basically JP did the exact opposite of what one would do if one didn’t want to land the story about moving Halladay on the front page of the paper every day for 3 weeks—he started making noises about moving Halladay, and started making statements it seemed like every other day.
If he knew his media management, he would have said NOTHING about trading Halladay for as long as possible publicly. He would not have announced his demands publicly, and answered every question with the absolutely minimum. He would’’ve made back-channel inquires, and denied, denied, and denied or “no commented” EVERYTHING until he had a serious offer.
(For a shorter version, see Torgen’s comment below.)
Er, above...whatever...
…I guess maybe it’s that I’m particularly interested in politics that I really do think whether you do things publicly or not matters both for strategic position and for morale.
For a comparison point, see Cliff Lee…very few people knew anything at all as to whether he was being shopped until like a day or two before he was traded…arguably, that’s because the Halladay story sucked up all of the media oxygen—but I wonder who was responsible for that?
Sure it does, but media speculation plays a major part too. You don’t think JP saying “no comment” in response to a reporter asking if he was fielding offers for Halladay would not generate the same response? Denying things doesn’t do any better in the eyes of the media.
And there were plenty of Cliff Lee Rumors around during the year as was as Halladay rumors, but given the choice between the two who is going to generate more page views for your website/blog/newspaper, especially near the deadline?
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Not to mention
The Indians didn’t get enough for Cliff Lee, so why would we want J.P. to have dealt with the situation the same way?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
My argument has nothing to do with...
…whether publicity affects trade value. It simply is that the GM creating publicity and mid-season drama is a non-trivial detraction.
This should in fact be clear when I suggested that JP’s record may be “objectively” average—that is, in terms of the value of his total moves, viewed purely from the standpoint of the talent he’s got vs. what he had to give up/spend for it.
My argument is very simple, and, I dunno, it seems uncontroversial to me: I think there’s an intrinsic negative to the GM and his comments being more of a story than the players on the field.
Esp. w/ Halladay, JP seemed to have fed the circus rather than to have acted strategically in reducing it. There was no need for him to say that the situation changed because Halladay was thinking about testing the free agency market (as if he was going to sit there like a potted plant once his contract was up). He had a choice to just close his mouth, or come up with a polite evasion. Good leaders both within the sports world and outside of it know how to do this. It seems not to be in JP’s nature.
Your argument was that the Indians dealt with the Cliff Lee situation properly.
I would argue that they did not. Perhaps the reason that they were not offered a fair deal for Cliff Lee was that there wasn’t enough media buzz around him. More media buzz means more fans calling into talk shows saying, “We need to get this guy! ! ! !” More fans calling into talk shows means more that ownership puts pressure on GMs to make a move. The more pressure to make a move, the more the GM is willing to give up.
And Halladay may have been traded to the Phillies if the Indians hadn’t given Cliff Lee up for so little. Say Halladay is a 6.0 win player and Lee is a 4 win player; why give up a boatload of prospects for six wins when you can get four for some mediocre ones?
I agree that J.P. is not very good with people, but the whole media circus here was not really his fault. All he said was, “We’re listening to offers” and “Halladay has told us he wants to test the free agency market,” which Halladay himself confirmed.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Well, in terms of media I thought the Indians dealt with Lee properly...
…the substance of the trade is an entirely different matter.
I guess I have a harder time accepting your hypothesis, which is that the media buzz contributes to the value of a trade, as I have a hard time believing that the level of media buzz influences the decisions GMs make (beyond revealing previously hidden info about your adversaries). I personally have a hard time thinking that a competent GM would be much affected by any of the volume of the media craziness going on around them (or even the time to digest much of a it), but who knows…
What I do think a GM has control over is PR and publicity…and I think JP should’ve known that saying anything about his willingness to listen to offers for Halladay would create a big story.
That was a lot of "hard times"...
…bah, writing ability seriously devolving on a Friday PM…
I dunno—I guess my main sense is that the whole Halladay thing was handled with far less class and much more craziness it could have been. Then again, I’ve never been in a senior exec position in a high profile org., so I’m not saying that I’d be a lock to do much better than JP…just maybe hoping that I’d be less of a d*ck (although I understand that a lot of people don’t see being a d*ck as a negative trait for a GM).
Well
We don’t know what the situation in Cleveland was actually like, Aquamelli could maybe offer some insight there . . . seemed like Shapiro did a firesale because he needed to shed payroll.
As far as media buzz increasing a player’s trade value, I don’t think it necessarily does (and very rarely should it), but look at the Mets signing Frankie Rodriguez and trading for J.J. Putz this offseason — I think those moves were pushed by the media more than anything else.
Also, as far as PR and publicity, I think JohnnyG pointed out below that J.P. needed to get people used to the idea that Doc could be moved . . . if he is traded seemingly out of nowhere people would be livid.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
There may have been rumors...
…but what I’m saying is that a guy in JP’s position has a lot of control over whether something’s just a rumor, and whether it draws a full out firestorm of attention.
And I guess I strongly disagree that denying things doesn’t “do any better” in the eyes of the media. If you run a tight enough ship, and make sure no one leaks or and tell your counterparty that they’d better not leak either or else there will be no deal, what happens is the media gets nothing, and is BORED, and is forced to move on to something else because they have nothing tangible to fuel their speculation.
Given how high JP’s trade demands turned out to be (assuming for the sake of this argument, that he’s being sincere about this), the media buzz over Halladay was WAY higher than the number of offers being seriously considered, or the actual chances that a trade was actually ever going to happen. It’s this disparity that I’m strongly criticizing.
On MLBTradeRumours there is a quote from Epstein from the RedSox saying they pushed hard for Halladay but never got the sense they were close, basically because they didn’t want to give up Bard/Anderson along with Bucholz.
And I am afraid no one in MLB runs that tight of a ship. Stories leak out from all 30 teams, its a way a life with reporters and their “sources”.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Yeah, but surely there are distinctions...
…in terms of loudmouthed-ness and PR skills.
I would rate JP much higher than avg on the former (not a good thing), and lower than avg than on the latter as far as the league goes.
JP did good by Doc
If you have something to sell, you need to create a market. This requires creating demand by advertising. JP put out the word about Doc, to draw attention and solicit interest to, potentially, get the best bid that could be earned by the team.
Concurrently, JP has to manage fan expectations, which is a very challenging task concerning the much loved Roy Halladay. To that end, JP slowly acclimatized fans to the notion that Doc might be moved. If JP had traded Doc, it would have been a nice clean move because JP did make the effort to keep the public and Jays fans in the loop. In contrast, if JP did trade Doc and than just blindsided fans one day “oh by the way, we have moved Doc” there very likely would have been riots in the streets. From a PR perspective, trading a fan favourite like Roy is a nightmare. JP handled it well.
In a public position such as Jays GM, it is impossible to make everyone happy, and clearly you are in that group. But in terms of creating awareness, creating a market for Roy and emotionally preparing fans for a Doc departure, I think JP did a pretty good job.
In terms of closing the deal, perhaps JP did not pull the trigger where he might have. Or perhaps he gets a better deal this summer, or perhaps he signs Doc. Ultimately, that will determine how well he dealt with the situation.
by aagoodfella on Aug 14, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand why you'd need to advertise
The market for Halladay is very small and not hard to locate: I open the paper to the sports section, and find conveniently listed the names of 30 MLB teams.
The actual market for Doc is even smaller, as only a dozen or less have both the needs and capacity to make offers that have a decent chance of completing a trade. JP presumably has a rolodex or a file with the emails or phone #s of those 6 – 12 GMs listed in it. He could look up those entries and pick up his phone or Blackberry and ask if they could make a serious offer in less time it would take a lot of people to order lunch. No publicity needed.
As for managing expectations, it was a horror show! Given that JP was not close to a trade (at least if we’re to believe what he’s now saying), then why was there a need to manage fan expectations? That just created a lot of unnecessary negativity about the team and depressed the fan base. This is a subjective thing, but it still makes me angry. If he was close to a trade, then I’d understand, but in this case, it just looks like an exercise in irritating people with unnecessary drama.
if you never inform the public that you are going to trade Doc
then come close to a deal
and so, to avoid bad PR, announce before closing the deal “hey we are about to make a deal on Doc”
it kind of puts you in a bad negotiating position with the counterparty
by aagoodfella on Aug 14, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno...
…it would be a serious act of bad faith for a counterparty to significantly lower their offer in response to that kind of announcement. Even if it did have an effect, if you announced it earlier, then the earlier would still be factored in, just at the outset of negotiations.
I do agree that there is a cost in that you’d have less time to deal with fan expectations.
Torgen comments? Where?
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
About the value of the guy?
Again what is the point of trading someone when theoretically his value is highest? If the return is not matching that value regardless then it is pointless. It has already been said that other factors may drive up the price in the offseason if they trade him then.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
The only way we'll know is when its done
It’s a wait and see…. if he gets less than it was a mistake. If he gets more than I’ll be the first to say what a good deal it is!
More or less in comparison to what? The Cliff Lee Deal?
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Well we have an idea of what the Phillies were willing to give up for Doc now… so when he is dealt we can compare and see if waiting was the right play.
Not comparing to Cliff Lee..
Ok if you not comparing to the Lee deal then what is the idea of what they wanted to give up for Doc. Because the Idea that I got was the package the Indians got for Lee was about what they wanted to give up for Doc except maybe with Happ in there.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Making it well known that you REALLY WANT to get rid of someone...
…for whatever reason (IE the Jays’ internal knowledge that they don’t think they can make a good enough offer to re-sign RH as a free agent) theoretically weaken one’s position in negotiating.
In any case, my main argument was not strategic. It was about the organizational and morale disadvantages of the business side of a club creating unnecessary attention and becoming more of a story than the players.
Bottom Line
He hasn’t put the team in a position to compete for the AL East crown or the Wildcard in his 8 seasons. If the ultimate goal is to win (no matter who your immediate competition is) JP has not done his job. If the ultimate goal is to be mediocre then he’s excelled.
JP succeded in fielding a competitive team that helped boost profits for Rogers
That is why he was able to keep his good for so long.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
We only won more...
Because our payroll increased. I think if you took the team over, then were given 30 more million to add players with you could have done just as good Johnny.
Not like the Jays did in 2006
We jumped from $45 million in 2005 to $71 million in 2006, peaking at $97 million in 2008.
I don’t think every team added payroll like that…
Didn't the yankees go from about $120 million to $200 million?
Red Sox went wild too. Weren’t they around $80 million and went to $150 million.
even the O's went payroll crazy, didn't they?
signed a few huge deals
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I think the O's have shed most of it...
I’m going to look it up…
Payrolls
Yankees had a payroll of 208 mil in 2005, 201 mil this year, and 150 mil in 2003.
Red Sox have consistently spent between 120 mil to 140 mil since 2004 (121 this year)
The Orioles have consistently spent around 70 million a year since 2003 with a spike of 93 million in 07. They are spending 67 million this year, but 16 million of that is for former players no longer on the roster!
If Rogers and the fans would get out of his way maybe he can do something with this team. But being forced to sign ridiculous contracts is just confounding the situation. I was bashing JP a lot for the Wells signing until I learned on here that really it wasn’t his fault. I am hugely in favour of the Rios move. I think he’s never going to achieve is real potential. I really hope those dollars are re-injected into the team but I am not holding out hope.
We need a 1B, LF/DH and a pitcher. I think Frasor and his new changeup will be fine at closer. Downs can go back to setting up. Everyone else moves back into their appointed roles. Tallet can be a very effective long man as he has proven.
I like the chances if only Rogers would get on board and give us the needed dollars and not interfere in the choice of players to spend those $$$ on.
by BigTimeBlueJayFan on Aug 13, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t let JP completely off the hook for Wells. I imagine it was a joint decision from everyone involved, but it stands to reason that most of the pressure came from Godfrey and Rogers.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
What I've read is that JP was against the deal
but when your bosses say ‘this is what we are doing’ sometimes that’s how life is.
I seriously doubt this...
It just doesn’t seem to go with the JP regime. The late Ted Rogers always fully trusted JP, gave him millions more dollars to work with, believed in the three year plan (still waiting on that btw), let JP run the show completely, but then made him do this? Something doesn’t add up to me… but I very likely could be wrong…
Do you have a link to a story?
Well there is no actual story about it, just sports writers opinions (the Jays would never publicly come out and say it was the presidents decision).
As much as I hate linking to Griff…. Here it is.
The best part?
That $136 million Soriano jackpot was the guiding light when I suggested, on the final day of the winter meetings, that the Jays should offer Wells a contract for eight years of $138.6 million, including $5.6 million remaining on the final year of his current pact. It wasn’t a number pulled out of a hat.
Yes that’s right. That is Griffin suggesting that the Jays at the time should of given Wells 8 years 138.6 Million. And he is one of the ones that Craps all over the signing and points to it as a reason the Jays should fire JP.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
If you can find a story that would be awesome…. This was the turning point for me on JP as I actually used to really like him as a GM. But when he went so anti-Moneyball with this deal (Huge dollars for a small OBP) I lost a lot of respect for him.
the point of Moneyball is NOT high OBP
the point of Moneyball is to find inefficiencies in the market, and exploit them. in Moneyball’s case, they (Oakland) found that it was possible to acquire players who put up high OBPs for far cheaper than they were “worth” according to their statistics. The Yanks and Red Sox have led the AL in OBP for the past 4 years (I believe).
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
Yep. So that inefficiency is all dried up. Couple of opinions on what the next one will be, in fact someone mentioned on this site about signing older players on that seem on the decline looking for a spike.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
So we sign a low OBP guy to lots of money?
I agree that it is about finding inefficiencies and exploiting them, but it was proven that the most important offensive statistic is OBP followed by slugging. Beane has still found some gems recently (Eg. Jack Cust, although he has declined steadily since his first year with Oakland), I just wish JP would try and build his team around higher OBP guys.
right
but that means that nowadays, since EVERYONE (even fans on BBB) know that OBP is one of the most important offensive statistics, so players with high OBP get bigger contracts (closer to what they “deserve”) than they did 10 years ago. I’m not defending the contract at all in this discussion, just noting that OBP is now being paid for with big bucks since it’s now efficient
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
It was fielding for awhile. I'm not sure that it is anymore,
because all the teams seem to be looking for guys that field well.
I think it's more that they're overvaluing youth
I don’t think expecting old guys who recently sucked to suck less is likely to yield useful players, but old guys who have never sucked getting lumped in with the suckers is inefficient.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I meant more about injuries then career decline... my bad
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
that's interesting
Jon Heynman (i think) wrote an article recently about how small-market teams are trying to take full advantage of a different “statistic” – time. the Yanks/Sox/Dodgers have to field a competitive team essentially EVERY YEAR, while it’s expected that the Marlins will have many-a rebuilding year (even ignoring the ridiculous state of that front office). This gives the small-market teams a chance to really stockpile talent while it’s not quite as easy for a bigger one. Seems to me that’s a big issue for the Jays – we’re not really small or big market, and we’re kind of always (for a while now, anyway) stuck between rebuilding and win-now philosophy. i thought it was an interesting point. thoughts?
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
walks away humming stuck in the middle with you
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Tarantino
ruined that song for me. Sort of like Singing in the Rain and a Clockwork Orange
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
But that is a great scene!
Especially afterwards when Tim Roth is all like Dude Im a cop,
And the guy was like I know, I met you before.
And you were all like Damn, Dude was getting killed and still wouldn’t give up the info.
And I was like Whoa……
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
There's some positives
After the 2005 season when Ted Rogers extended the payroll to about $210 million, Ricciardi made some very efficient moves by signing AJ. Burnett and B.J. Ryan. He also acquired significant players at the time such as : Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and Benji Molina. The following year we did finish with a 87-75 record not only it was good enough for second in the East , but it also marked the first time we had finished higher than third since 1993….
However, when it comes down to it, in his 6+ years here he failed on his promise to put this team back in the post season and for that reason he will not be around next year….
"Sports is something you know, not something you should preach.'
Ummmm 210 Million?
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Over 3 years
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
how dare he break his promise to us
signing BJ Ryan was hardly an “efficient” move.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
At the time....
It was an efficient move at the time, as he answered with 38-saves to help the Blue Jays finish in second place. unfortunetly he was never the same pitcher after elbow surgery in 2007…
"Sports is something you know, not something you should preach.'
actually, no
a mid-market team like the Jays signing a closer to a big contract is the exact opposite of "efficient." Those deals almost never work out for mid-market teams because they are paying a premium for a position that doesn’t affect overall records all that much and relievers’ performance is almost always sporadic and prone to injury (unless the reliever’s name is Rivera). In fact, there was an interesting article on this on MLB Trade Rumors recently.
Also, talking about the 2006 team as the high-water mark because they happened to finish in "second place" is a little silly. Though it was a solid team, that team won 87 games and finished in second mostly because the Red Sox completely fell apart, not particularly close to a playoff spot. The 2008 team was a much better team despite finishing in 4th.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
as well
this team, for all its problems, is pythagorean’ing 8 games over .500…
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
But it did........
At the time, yes even as a mid-market club, the Blue Jays did require a closer and it was a common sense move to acquire a B.J. Ryan, which was exactly what Ricciardi did. Ryan did live up to his end of the bargain for the first year and the only reason he became no longer effective was because of injury. Had he not been injured, we most likely would not be having this conversation right now.
I
"Sports is something you know, not something you should preach.'
yes, the Jays needed a closer and BJ Ryan is (was) a closer. But you seem confused as to what the word “efficient” means.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
And it has been shown that you can “usually” find a closer from within the ranks that can for the most part put up similar save numbers. It is an over-rated stat for obvious reasons. See Accardo and Downs from previous years.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Incorrect....
RE: your point : And it has been shown that you can "usually" find a closer from within the ranks
In the 22-years of this franchise, the most successful closer Tom Henke, was a fourth round draft pick of the Texas Rangers. Henke pitched three years in Texas before coming to the Blue Jays.
Duane Ward who had a spectacular 45-save season for us in 1993, was a first round pick of the Braves in 1982 and pitched his first ten games of the majors in 1986 with Atlanta.
The most successful closer we’ve had within our organization: BILLY KOCH.
In 1999, 2000 and 2001, he compiled 31, 33, and 36 saves before being dealt the following year to the Oakland Athletics… KOCH, was a first round pick of the Blue Jays in the 1996 amateur draft…
"Sports is something you know, not something you should preach.'
Actually
I agree with the other guys Valter. Look no further than the Oakland Athletics. Who was the closer last year? Brad Ziegler. Who was the closer coming into the year? Joey Devine. Who is the closer now? Andrew Bailey.
Three outs is three outs my friend, and unless you have a psyche problem (which a fair percentage do), a stud arm in the 8th is usually a stud in the 9th.
You...
don’t make any sense with your argument…Brad Ziegler and Joe Devine were both failed experiments as far as closers are concerned and Andrew Bailey now has been given the opportunity. Finding a closer within who cannot do the job successfully for a long period of time, is not what you call finding a closer.
As for the comment in the second paragraph, you pretty well defined just how much class you have….
"Sports is something you know, not something you should preach.'
Huh? What comment in the second paragraph?
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Where is the consistency?
A couple of weeks ago I used the LOL terminology a bit inappropriately and I got deservedly warned…
What I can’t understand why one direct insult to members here is not being dealt with accordingly…
"Sports is something you know, not something you should preach.'
where do you feel you were insulted?
I agree with you insults to fellow commenters won’t be tolerated
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
What insult? is what I am asking.
Three outs is three outs my friend, and unless you have a psyche problem (which a fair percentage do), a stud arm in the 8th is usually a stud in the 9th.
He is referring to relievers.. Saying 3 outs is 3 outs in the game of baseball and unless the reliever has a psyche problem those that are good in the 8th are the same good amount in the 9th…
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Not insulting you!
I was referring to relievers having a psyche problem!
Ziegler
Is 17 of 21 in his career for save opportunities, was displaced in spring because Devine was better. Ziegler also has an ERA of 1.83 in his short career. I wouldn’t call that a failure.
Devine then lost the job instantly this year because of injury, when it was then given to Ziegler again. Bailey was so dominant however, and took the job.
And it is a different time, To go get a closer now costs a stupid amount of money. Look how well the Mets did by going out and signing the top two closers on the market with Putz and K-Rod. Did them a lot of good.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Goal setting:
I think goal setting should be to build the best team possible.
Saying, “next year we are going to spend $120M” does not really strike me as the correct benchmark.
Govts usually measure responsiveness in how much money they throw at a problem and how effective are they typically? Not so good, I would argue.
I am not against spending $120M, if they have to spend that to win a WS than fine, but financial irresponsibility is just going to attract alot of people who are motivated ONLY by cash and not necessarily by winning — a subtle, but important distinction, IMHO.
well the problem here is
do you want to build the best team right now, with our current core of players, or do you want to completely rebuild and build the (the core of which may or may not be better than our current core) best team in the future?
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
If you build a winner now
the stadium won’t be empty the next time you build a winner.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
i think the jays have a decent core
2B, SS, CF, DH (Lind), LF (Snider) are good enuf for WS winner team
CF is slumping right now, so that is a big problem
if you throw Ruiz in the mix, assuming he can maintain his clip, than all the outfield and DH are WS caliber
that leaves 1B — when he is on, Overbay is WS caliber, but he is off and on so that is a problem
Chavez and Barajas are both very good defensively, but am not sure if they are enough bat .. of course Chavez has occasionally surprised to the upside and when Barajas is streaking he is good enough
3B – who knows? if Encarnacion can come back from his wrist injury and crank mid-20s taters again next year, that might be adequate as well
pitching is probably good enough when not injured
so, the Jays probably have a group right now that could win if things went there way. However, they are not so strong that they would be odds on favourite.
So, I think there is a good core there. Maybe you are right that spending lots might solve the problem but with Doc probably heading out the door, and a bit more experience for Snider and Lind necessary, I might hold off. If I was in BoSox position, I would be more comfortable throwing the money around.
by aagoodfella on Aug 16, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure i agree
the only positions we’re better than the sox and yanks right now is 2B (by probably a larger margin that it seems), DH and CF, if Vern has a good year. SS might be comparable if Scoot keeps it up (and keeps it up in Toronto) and Snider has a lot of developing to do before he can be called WS calibre (though he likely can become that good)
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
our starting pitching is better than yankee starting pitching, though.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Not trying to diss Hill but...
You remember AL MVP Dustin Pedroia don’t you? Now I’m not trying to make enemies here but I would probably take Pedroia instead of Hill. Throw away the trophy, his career .308/.370/.453 line is about as valuable as Aaron Hill’s CAREER YEAR line of .288/.327/.498. They both play superb D.
You can make a case for Hill, but to say that he is “better than a larger margin than it seems” is an outrageous claim in my books.
Hill has more power, but that is as far as it goes. (Not sure on D, but I know they are both excellent.)
In the interest of being fair to Aaron Hill
Pedroia plays in the optimal parks for them (a right-handed batter in Fenway Park and a left-handed batter in Yankee Stadium).
And if you’re going to use Pedroia’s season last year to strengthen his case, it is only fair to use Cano’s season to weaken his.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
rats
meant to say “Pedroia and Cano play in the optimal parks for them”
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Great points.
I’ll point out that the Sky Dome (using its proper name) is a good hitters park as well, although not as good a situation as you mentioned.
Just going by the larger sample sizes, and the realization that Hill won’t be a steady 30 HR guy is what I am basing this on.
What can we expect from Hill on a year-to-year basis? .290/.335/.470 with low 20s/High teens in HR? That is awesome production from a defensive stud at second base but not necessarily better or as good as our AL East rivals 2B.
Even with Cano’s write-off year last year he still has a career AVG of .306 in 690 career games.
Interesting that these three guys will likely be there respective teams second basemen for the foreseeable future, and all are around the same age!
it used to play as a slight hitter's park
when our pitching and defense were bad. Now that our hitting is bad and pitching and defense are good, it plays as a slight pitcher’s park. I’d say it’s neutral.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Cano
Robinson Cano is also having a better offensive season than Hill is right now, although his defense is worse.
actually have no idea on the defense.. I just read he is playing GG calibre. although the merits on that are questionable.
cano's defence is pretty consistently below average throughout his career
hill’s is pretty consistently above and pedroia’s is as well. So Cano’s value is hurt by his fielding, Hill and Pedroia’s values are buoyed.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
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