Is Aaron Hill's Season a Fluke?

In his 5th season the majors Aaron Hill has hit 2 more homers this year than he hit in his first 4 seasons put together. So is this a fluke season? Well, I don't really think so. He's turned 27 this year so he is just getting into his prime as a hitter. Two years ago, his last full season, he set a career high in home runs with 17. Last year he started slow, hitting just 2 home runs before colliding with David Eckstein and missing the rest of the season, but we don't know what he would have done with the rest of his season had Eckstein's head not been so hard.

Forgetting about last year, his home run number have grown pretty naturally. He hit 2 as a 23 year old rookie, then 6, 17, then the injury year. Now he has 30 and counting. If you put a believable number in for last season like say 25, then this year seems like normal progression. 

Does Aaron think he can continue to hit like this?

A year ago, Hill was simply trying to get back in a baseball uniform after suffering a serious and potentially career-threatening concussion. Asked if he would have predicted that he would launch 30 homers a season after such a scare, Hill shook his head and smiled.

"No," Hill replied. "I hope they don't expect me to do that every year."

But his manager seems to think he can:

Gaston said. "I hope that's something we see every year -- that'd be great."

The contradiction in reactions made Gaston chuckle.

"Well, I know when I was playing," Gaston said, "if you hit 30 this year, you better hit 30 next year."

His Top 10 Similar Batters from his Similarity Scores on his Baseball Reference page doesn't full you with great hope for his future:

  1. Yuniesky Betancourt (978)
  2. Kazuo Matsui (966)
  3. Alex Cintron (955)
  4. Russell Martin (955)
  5. Tadahito Iguchi (953)
  6. Tony Eusebio (950)
  7. Matt Batts (950)
  8. Dib Williams (950)
  9. Jeff Treadway (948)
  10. Don Padgett (947)
Not really a group of potential Hall of Famers.

I'd like to think that this is the power numbers we'll be seeing for the next few seasons. Anyway, what do you think. Is Aaron going to be hitting 30+ homers as a normal thing from now on or is this year a fluke? 

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