Is Aaron Hill's Season a Fluke?

by Tom Dakers on Aug 26, 2009 3:48 PM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

In his 5th season the majors Aaron Hill has hit 2 more homers this year than he hit in his first 4 seasons put together. So is this a fluke season? Well, I don't really think so. He's turned 27 this year so he is just getting into his prime as a hitter. Two years ago, his last full season, he set a career high in home runs with 17. Last year he started slow, hitting just 2 home runs before colliding with David Eckstein and missing the rest of the season, but we don't know what he would have done with the rest of his season had Eckstein's head not been so hard.

Forgetting about last year, his home run number have grown pretty naturally. He hit 2 as a 23 year old rookie, then 6, 17, then the injury year. Now he has 30 and counting. If you put a believable number in for last season like say 25, then this year seems like normal progression.

Does Aaron think he can continue to hit like this?

A year ago, Hill was simply trying to get back in a baseball uniform after suffering a serious and potentially career-threatening concussion. Asked if he would have predicted that he would launch 30 homers a season after such a scare, Hill shook his head and smiled.

"No," Hill replied. "I hope they don't expect me to do that every year."

But his manager seems to think he can:

Gaston said. "I hope that's something we see every year -- that'd be great."

The contradiction in reactions made Gaston chuckle.

"Well, I know when I was playing," Gaston said, "if you hit 30 this year, you better hit 30 next year."

His Top 10 Similar Batters from his Similarity Scores on his Baseball Reference page doesn't full you with great hope for his future:

Not really a group of potential Hall of Famers.

I'd like to think that this is the power numbers we'll be seeing for the next few seasons. Anyway, what do you think. Is Aaron going to be hitting 30+ homers as a normal thing from now on or is this year a fluke?

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I think 30 is optimistic…. But I’ll take it.

I could see him hitting somewhere in the range of 20-25 next year.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Aug 26, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe its a Brady Anderson-sque type year

Hr’s by year:
4
3
2
21
13
12
16
50
18
18
24
19
18
1

And so, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, striving to put right what once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap, will be the leap home.

by craig in calgary on Aug 26, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

I'm not a betting man but I'd guess his 50 HR year, he had some "Special vitamins"

Thats a lie. I am a betting man.

And so, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, striving to put right what once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap, will be the leap home.

by craig in calgary on Aug 26, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Ken Rosenthal is gonna get you!!!

Power of the written word!!!
POWER OF THE WRITTEN WORD!!!!

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Aug 26, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

No way he hits 30 every year. His HR's, for the most part, barely make it over.

That being said, if he hits 20 HR’s (which I think would be about right for him), you can add an extra 10 to his doubles totals.

So, he’s still a really solid hitter.

by REMO on Aug 26, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

Unless we're raising the fences this offseason

Why wouldn’t they continue to make it over? For that matter, considering how often we make warning track outs compared to our opponents, why don’t we bring the fences in a few feet and have him hit 40?

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Aug 26, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I think what he means is that he has little margin for error.

by T.Haynes on Aug 27, 2009 5:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Consistently, no, but I think we’ll see him as a regular 20-25 guy who has a couple more lucky 30+HR seasons in him. The key is Hill’s swing and his hands. He just turns on the ball coming through the zone, and that kind of swing means you’re going to get returns in power. It’s not the uppercut kind of swing that you see from a more traditional power hitter, like an A-Rod or Pena, but it’s a good line drive style that allows you to just drop the head a bit when you’ve got one in the wheelhouse and go for the fence.

Barring injury, I think Hill is going to be a good hitter, with a nice mix of power and average, and streaky in terms of his patience in drawing walks, for the foreseeable future.

by dexfarkin on Aug 26, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions

No reason to think so...

Take a look at his peripherals. A BABIP of .296 is right at average, and his HR/FB ratio of 16.9% is around the same as Swisher, Kendry Morales and Tulowitzki.

When the first batted ball data came back, the speed of the ball coming off his bat was highest on the Jays, which goes hand in hand with the good LD % of 20.

None of the stats are alarmingly high, so you wouldn’t really expect him to be a candidate for regression based on statistics.

by Doytch on Aug 26, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions

I think anything's possible

Nobody thought Hill would hit 30 home runs this year. I’m hoping for the best for our young boppers.

by Frag on Aug 26, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions

less home runs, more doubles is my guess

That said, it’s worth noting that Hill has consistently blown his projections out of the water. When he hit 17 in 2006, the consensus among projection systems was that it was a total fluke and he would be lucky to be a double digit HR guy going forward. We saw what happened with that.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 26, 2009 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

The projection systems hated that he bloomed when called up

He had been no great shakes in the minors, and figured things out exactly when he was subbing for an injured Koskie at third.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Aug 26, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

yep

I remember thinking before the 2008 season that it was weird that the projection systems were still holding minor-league stats from years ago against him after he had a couple of very solid seasons under his belt as a 25 yo infielder.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 26, 2009 6:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

That’s a very solid guess, I agree we’re more likely to see a return to 40-50 2B out of Aaron Hill next year than another 30+ HR season.

I think it’s premature to pencil in 25 HR as the natural development curve for the missed year. Look at someone like Dustin Pedroia, similar power output for the first three years of his career: 2 HR – 8 HR – 17 HR. This year he’s only hit 10, and while not having an MVP-ish is still having a great year despite the downturn in power.

Hill might have another 30 HR season in him somewhere down the line, but he’s probably more in line to average about 20-25 over the next four or five years with an average in the .280-.300 range.

And considering that around this time last year we weren’t sure if he’d ever play again, that’s pretty darn good.

by ChrisU on Aug 26, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

DieHard prediction

Sorry, just saw that DieHardDummy below posted about the same prediction line before me (even though I’m apparently a little more optimistic about the batting average). Great minds think alike!

by ChrisU on Aug 26, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll guarantee you this

He’ll hit more homers than Millar … who sadly is once again pencilled into tonight’s lineup as the clean-up hitter.

Fewer taters, more doubles going forward. If he stays in Toronto I’d look for Aaron to average 20-25 a year and hit .275 – .300 over the next 3-5 years.

'some witty quote'
Too Lazy to Care

by DieHardDummy on Aug 26, 2009 5:10 PM EDT reply actions

Fluke or No Fluke, I'm enjoying it.

Thanks, Aaron.

by PFHLai on Aug 27, 2009 12:56 AM EDT reply actions

What we should expect.

High teens to mid twenties in HR with a .290 AVG to go with it. (.290/.330/.470)

He has more HR than doubles right now, which is strange to see from a player like this so I definitely think that this will be Aaron’s finest statistical season of his career.

That being said I think he is a great player and I enjoy watching him on both sides of the ball, great with the glove and good with the stick.

by T.Haynes on Aug 27, 2009 5:04 AM EDT reply actions

I'm looking forward to seeing more defensive stats at the end of the season

UZR thinks he has steadily declined into an average defensive second baseman. I know he looks a bit slower and bulkier, but he’s still young and I think he’s well above average. I’m guessing some of the other metrics will back that up since +/- has liked Hill more than UZR in the past.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 27, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions