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You Have Every Right to Be This Appalled with Me: Vernon Wells, Next Stop -- Zero WAR?

It's been a long season for Number 10. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

More photos » Darren Calabrese - AP

It's been a long season for Number 10. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

Okay, so let me say straightaway that -- unpopular as this may be -- I am a Vernon Wells fan.  And I don't mean that in the, "I like the Jays and Vernon Wells is on the Jays so I like him" sense.  I mean it in the, "If Vernon Wells played for the Minnesota Twins, I would check the boxscores everyday to see how he did" sense.  That's why it's been doubly hard for me to watch his struggles this season, both at the plate (where he's been six runs below average) and in the field (19.3 runs below average), where he got off to an horrendous start, but seems to have gotten a bit of his range back.  For a stretch this season, in fact, Vernon Wells was actually rated as the Least Valuable Player in the League.  However, thanks to some good play of late, the centrefielder has passed several players and has managed to exit MLB's bottom five.

Now, personally, I think Ultimate Zone Rating may have been somewhat unkind to Vernon and some of the other defensive metrics (such as +/-) may show his defence has not been quite as bad as UZR shows.  Twenty runs below average is so bad that it means that he would be about a full win below average even in a corner slot.  I tend to think he would be fine in RF or LF, but with the departure of Alex Rios, we don't exactly have many other options for centre.  So, if Vernon's fielding is a bit better than UZR has shown, he's probably at replacement level now, but let's work on the assumption that UZR is right about him.

This may be a bizarre part of my fandom, but I really hope Vernon makes it up to replacement level by season's end.  At 2.7 runs below replacement right now, it would take a pretty solid next two weeks for him to make up that ground, but it certainly isn't impossible.  We all know that Vernon is a feel hitter and he seems to have improved at both the plate and in the field of late.  For those who are wondering, three runs above replacement in 16 games, equates to roughly 31 runs above replacement over a full season (or about 3 Wins Above Replacement), which is about how well Jason Kubel, Todd Helton and Ryan Theriot have played so far.  If Vernon stays relatively hot, this is a pretty realistic goal and could make it worthwhile to pay attention to the rest of the season.  So join me in wishing Vernon the best, and let's cheer him on in his quest to reach replacement level for 2009!

Poll
Will Vernon Wells make it to Replacement Level?
Yes
30 votes
No
62 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

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While it’s been extremely difficult to cheer for Vernon Wells, I’m with you on the Wells fandom. I always thought he was a genuinely nice guy with a sense of humour that enjoys what Toronto has to offer. Yeah, I know the whole story about being a nice guy is all well and good, bu he has to be a better player. Sure, I get that and no doubt, Wells has to be a much better player from here out for the Jays to even think about making a run for the playoffs. The Jays don’t have the luxury of trotting out a sub-par/below average player in their lineup. But liking players is always emotional and rarely objective. Just as Reed Johnson will always have a huge fan base amongst a lot of Blue Jays fans, I like Wells for being a good guy.

Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell

by bkblades on Sep 18, 2009 1:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

really like the player, hate the contract

I don’t see the Jays ponying up for a big bat this offseason, so Wells absolutely has to step up if the Jays are going to be competitive next year. That his defense has improved as the season has gone on is encouraging, but it’s still a big problem for him.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Sep 18, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yes, wells is alright. The contract blows and I would dump him in a heartbeat to get rid of the contract but pick him up just as fast at a lower rate.

I expect he will do better next year, but man his struggles this year have been bad … not as bad as Rios, but bad.

by aagoodfella on Sep 18, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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