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Who's on first?

Since the Jays have been very stubborn in their "we aren't going to make any news for bloggers to talk about" stance, I thought we'd continue our look at who is likely to be playing each position. It isn't like there is no news at all today. The Mariners signed Felix Hernandez to a five year $78 million contract. The Mariners have had a great off-season, picking up Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley (not sure if that goes in the great file) and even Brandon League. And they locked up some good players in long term contracts. They will be tough to beat this year with 2 ace type pitchers at the top of their rotation and an improved offense.

Anyway our Jays seem to be at least waist deep in first base possibilities.

Lyle Overbay: Lyle's been a solid if not spectacular first baseman for us for the past four seasons. He was, once again, very good against RHP (282/.396/.509) while he couldn't hit lefties at all (.190/.256/.278). He's got a good glove at first, even if UZR doesn't seem to like him. His glove looked even better compared to Kevin Millar last year. He's consistently had a WAR value around 2.0 for the Jays, except for the year he had the wrist injury. I had figured he would be traded sometime this winter but so far it hasn't happened. If it doesn't, he'll be playing first against RHP. I'd like to see him moved up to the 2 spot in the order but I don't think Cito would do that. I still figure he will be traded but time is running out. 

Randy Ruiz: We all know he had an amazing 33 game run with the Jays last year. I wish Cito would have played him more, he would seem to be a natural platoon partner for Overbay but Cito really didn't seem to like him playing first base. On the list of things I don't understand about Cito, one is how he could watch Millar's defense at first and think he was ok and yet he decided Ruiz wasn't good without really giving him a chance. Randy played 9 innings at first base. Apparently Randy has been playing first and left field in winter ball. I don't see him as a LFer but never know. I'm kind of half way on Randy, he will be 32 next year, so by the time the team is good he'll be into the down stage of his career and he won't be as good as he showed last year, but I'd put him out there and see if he proves me wrong. The projection systems don't agree on what he'll do next year, Bill James has him hitting 294/.352/.517 in 180 at bats, CHONE gives him more at bats, 462, but doesn't think he'll hit, .255/.315/.448. Somewhere between the two might be right, if he gets the playing time. 

Brian Dopirak: To me, this is Brian's year, he either makes the team or will be passed by so many prospects we won't ever see him in Toronto. He is 26 now and if he was going to have a terrific spring training, this would be the time to do it. CHONE doesn't project that he'd have a great year: 416 at bats, .240/.288/.397. It does look a little harsh, but then there are likely reasons why he is 26 and hasn't had a major league at bat. He's got hurdles in front of him. Cito doesn't tend to like rookies, Brett Wallace came in the Halladay trade, there will be pressure to show the fans what we got for Doc, but Dopirak would be a good platoon partner for Overbay. He's got power, that's never a bad thing. I think he needs a big spring and if he makes the team he can't slump or we won't see him again. 

Brett Wallace: They figure the bat is ready but if they are moving him from third to first base they'd likely want him to learn in Triple-A. But then, first is the easiest position to learn and there will be pressure to show off what we got for Doc. I'd bet at very least he will be a September call up. CHONE doesn't think he'd hit much this year (.252/.306/.395 in 489 at bats), Bill James on the other hand thinks he'd hit ok (.278/.331/.427 in 504 at bats). The only way he isn't our first baseman in 2011 is if Encarncion flames out and the Jays decide Wallace can play third.

David Cooper: People shouldn't count him out, he didn't have a great year but it was his first full season of pro ball and it was at Double-A. Lots of guys need to see Double-A twice. He showed a pretty good eye at the plate, which is a nice way to start and did hit 10 home runs. He will be 23 in February, so he has time but it would be good if he came into spring training hitting everything. Though trade for Wallace doesn't look like a vote of confidence in Cooper, he still could turn out good.  

Adam Lind: The talk of moving Lind to first seems to have died off with the trade for Wallace, but if the Jays don't feel he can play LF, it wouldn't be a bad thing for him to learn a trade. He's far too young to be slotted in as a DH for the rest of his life. He'd be a nice big target for throws and he seems to hit better when he plays the field. As a proven major league bat and a potential star, he would be good if the camera could be on him for more than 4 at bats a game, at least to give us fans someone to cheer. Just 26 now, he could be the face of the team for the next 10 years.

So take your guesses for who will play first and what they will hit in the comments.

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all i can say is ugh. What if a bunch of these guys pan out? Jays will have to do some painful trading.

by aagoodfella on Jan 19, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions  

did our own aagoodfella

hack the Bill James projections on Ruiz?!

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 19, 2010 12:31 PM EST reply actions  

LOL, are you mocking my love for Ruiz? It would be interesting to see him in the outfield. He was fairly fast on the base paths for a big man wasn’t he, if I recall?

by aagoodfella on Jan 19, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

interesting might be the right word......tho I can think of others.

and yeah I think the James’ projection is just nuts, but who knows.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 19, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

no, not mocking

we all have our (somewhat) irrational favourites.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 19, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

could have been worse

And to think there were talks last season involving trading Halladay to Boston for a few guys, one name which was tossed around a lot was Sox #1 prospect and future disappointment Lars Anderson who plays first base. People think Cooper had a rough year in AA but Lars was bad and it was his second year. He even cursed out fans who heckled him. If the Jays had him in the mix too it would be ridiculous. Good non-trade.

by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 19, 2010 1:04 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Interesting?

Note that almost every evaluation Tom gives of these players includes a good reason why Cito should not manage the Jays this year. I don’t think it was deliberate, but there you go.

by siggian on Jan 19, 2010 1:09 PM EST reply actions  

Overbay/Ruiz platoon would work

But since Overbay complained about playing time last year, I don’t think he’ll be thrilled to see himself in another platoon role.

I remember Jason Lane tearing up Spring Training last year, but even if he hit .500 and 20 HRs, he still won’t win a job over Wells/Rios/Snider/Lind. I’m rooting for Dopirak, and hope he does well to get a job on the team.

I still want Overbay traded, despite his great D. I’ve had enough watching him come up time and time again in a clutch situation only to strike out and hit a weak fly-ball.

HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!

by BenjiDoc on Jan 19, 2010 1:43 PM EST reply actions  

I still think Overbay is going to get moved. There’s some teams that can use him, he’s got plenty of upside and his contract is reasonable enough to build a package around for some value in return. There’s a few national league teams that he’d be an excellent fit for: Mets, Giants, Pirates.

If he’s gone, my preference would be to see Lind in LF, Dopirak at first and Ruiz DHing. If any of them don’t work out, you can shift Bautista to a full time spot or bring up Wallace if he’s doing well in AAA. Or, as people have mentioned, Lane and Cooper are potential options. It also allows the Jays the flexibility to pick up a big, cheap bat in the spring if the option is there.

by dexfarkin on Jan 19, 2010 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

it'd be nice if wallace managed to stay at 3B and lind was moved to 1B for next year...

i’m not going to be holding my breath for that to happen though. it would be too good to be true.

as for this year i’d agree with the post above…
overbay plays half season here and then gets moved (hoping for some contract year magic)
dopirak and ruiz split the rest of the season
and wallace probably gets a few at bats in september

by b_man_zero on Jan 19, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

me too, but AA has already indicated Wallace is going to 1st

by aagoodfella on Jan 19, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Does Dopirak bat right?

If so, i really dont see how Cito can manage to not have an Overbay + Dopirak/Ruiz platoon at 1st. it would be ridiculous if that didnt happen.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Jan 19, 2010 2:48 PM EST reply actions  

ridiculous? like what? platooning with Millar? batting JoBa against lefties? putting JMac in OF?

by aagoodfella on Jan 19, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

hahaha, i like it, but

sorry to nitpick, but it’s righties, bautista doesn’t hit.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jan 19, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

yea, i was just testing ;-)

by aagoodfella on Jan 19, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Why does everyone say Bautista doesn't hit righties?

Maybe he hits them very well, no one will ever know has he has never actually swung the bat.

NFL Conference Championship predictions:
Vikings 31 Saints 30 ~ Colts 23 Jets 17

by craig in calgary on Jan 19, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

bautista has 123 AB vs. lefties (ave = 293, obp = 349, slg = 537, Ks = 21 or one every 5.85 AB)
bautista has 213 AB vs. righties (avg = 202, obp = 331. slg = 333, Ks = 64 or one every 3.33 AB)

versus righties, JoBa is a bad hitter, has little power and strikes out alot
versus lefties, JoBa is downright good

by aagoodfella on Jan 19, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

aa,

you really gotta recalibrate your sarcasm detector

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jan 19, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL, my sarcasm detector did register a hit on that comment, but i figured it would be interesting to look at the data anyway

by aagoodfella on Jan 19, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions  

it's a career-long trend

not just last season

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 20, 2010 7:01 AM EST up reply actions  

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