Make your predictions: Shaun Marcum
by Tom Dakers on Jan 25, 2010 1:35 PM EST
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PrintLast year about this time, at the suggestion of Beyond the Boxscore, we did a bunch of community projections for Jay players. This year I thought we'd ask you all to make your predictions for us. We'll go a player at a time, and start with the starting pitchers and there in start with the maybe the toughest to predict, Shaun Marcum.
Shaun (how many different ways of spelling Shaun are there? Just counting Shawns that are in the majors, there must be 7 different spellings) as we all know missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery near the end of 2008. He did make 5 starts in the minors, a total of 15.2 innings, 13 K, 3 walks, 17 hits and a 2.30 ERA.
In 2008, before he was injured, he had a 9-7 record, 3.39 ERA, in 25 starts. 123 K, 50 walks and 126 hits in 151.1 innings. His FIP was 4.46. 7.31 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9.
Bill James prediction from him is 6-7, 4.05 in 22 starts and 120 innings.
CHONE is a little less hopeful: 5-6, 4.59, in 19 starts and 104 innings.
So let's have your prediction. Give us win-lose, ERA, starts, and innings. After that add anything else you see in your crystal ball for Shaun this next season.
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I think Marcum is going to make close to 30 starts for about 180 innings, with an ERA below 4, but not by much. He’s going to start very strong; lots of K’s, few walks, and really seem to emerge as the next Halladay. Possible All-star. Following the all-star break, he’s going to fall off as the strain of the innings get to him, and batters start to remember how to hit him. He’ll get shut down by the end of August to avoid injury, and possibly spend a little bit of time on the DL. His spot will be filled by the returning Jesse Litsch.
Am I the only one here that thinks Litsch is done?
I don’t see him punching his way back into the lineup. At least not easily.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
I doubt you’re the only one here thinking that, but I very much disagree. People really just can’t get their heads around Jesse Litsch, but the guy is a good pitcher. He’s actually got the potential to be an extremely good pitcher.
I think people oversell ‘stuff’. A guy with a live arm or a ridiculous breaking pitch, that’s an ace. The thing is that half of pitching is mental, and a guy like Litsch doesn’t need to throw 95mph or toss one of AJ’s curves to compete. He hits spots, changes speed, keeps the ball down and sticks to his game plan. He’s got an unfortunate tendancy to give up homeruns, but outside of that, he has quality stuff and doesn’t get ruffled. He approaches hitters well, learns quickly, and he’s a decent fielder off the mound. That is not a number 5 rotation guy.
Yes, a lot of the Jays pitchers have higher upsides, but Litsch is a proven commodity and a valuable one at that. He had better numbers in 2007-2008 than AJ Burnett. He’ll get back into the rotation, and my bet is sooner as opposed to later.
He is a proven commodity? After one decent year?
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Two Decent Years
And I think ‘decent’ is pretty faint praise for a guy who posted an ERA+ of 118 and 117 pitching in the AL East as a rookie from AA ball and then as the 5th man in a rotation.
2007 seemed lucky
but 2008 he made some serious improvements. He cut a whole walk/9 off his walk rate, added a full K/9 to his strikeout rate to give him a very nice K/BB ratio, and continued to get groundballs while pitching almost 200 innings (including a brief, somewhat inexplicable stint in the minors). He still has to recover from TJ, which isn’t nothing, but if he can he’s a nice pitcher to have.
As for your broader point, I think when talking about prospects, you have to value stuff more because they are still developing their craft, but when you are talking about major-league pitchers, I’ll take the guy who knows how to pitch over the guy who has the stuff to succeed but hasn’t figured out how to do so.
I’m glad we got Brandon Morrow and I’m hoping he’ll be a good starter for us, and of course he has more “ace” potential than Litsch, but he’s almost a year older than Jesse, came up at the same age, and hasn’t had half the success that Litsch has had. Yes, it’s true he hasn’t started many games in the bigs, but a significant part of that is on him. His record as a starter last season, outside of a gem or two, is not pretty. And I point this out only to show that folks do tend to undervalue pitchers who don’t have flashy stuff but know how to pitch.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Litsch is a great pitcher
If he can come back from TJ, I will be very happy. Hopefully he can take over for an innings-limited Rzep or Cecil in August, and dominate like he did in 2008.
Did we watch a different Litsch in 2008?
He was very good given the situation but I don’t think it’s accurate to say that he ‘dominated’.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
But realistically, it is quite probable.
The guy is having his first TJ surgery. It’s got a success rate of over 80% and he’s shown nothing but consistent ability since he was first called up. So how is a one in five chance of complications ‘realistically probable’ he won’t come back?
yea, TJ is successful, but it is not clear to me that his success so far is sustainable. I still have concerns from what I saw in 2009 pre-injury (admittedly on a very small sample size as Dakers has noted) but still, there is much to worry about when you factor both concerns into your thinking.
I still have concerns from what I saw in 2009 pre-injury (admittedly on a very small sample size as Dakers has noted) but
you are talking about the one start he completed in 2009? Or do you mean the second start, where he left after 3 innings with the injury?
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Well if you think the 7 innings before a pitcher has Tommy John are something worth considering
then every pitcher that has Tommy John should be written off
I would disagree, but I think we simply evaluate Litsch differently. After hearing about how he was going to fall apart through 2007 and 2008, I’ve come to the conclusion that there are just some people who don’t think he can pitch, regardless of performance.
there is a thing that people decide if you aren't scary looking you can't win....
Jesse is red head, isn’t build like a tank…..people ignore that he pitches good and isn’t scared of anyone. He just gets guys out. Like Scott Downs, he needs a snake tatoo.
the non-tank build not eliciting respect is a comment that makes sense, but are you truly snubbing gingers? LOL Many Vikings were red-haired and they struck fear (along with sword, knife, axe, atgeir and spear) in lots of people.
If Litsch comes back strong and equal to 2008, perhaps we should start calling him Jessie The Red. Than folks will fear him as they should. LOL
Doesn’t help Litsch has a round pink face and looks like he’s fifteen. You know something, though, he’s actually got good stuff. Not superace stuff, but he’s got some nice movement on his breaking pitches and his fastball. I think it might be partly because he’s not a heater/curve guy that he looks underwhelming.
Lets say
about 30 starts maybe a bit less. Around 170-180 IP. ERA at about 4. I think he’s going to start off slowly, just getting a feel for being back in the Show. He’ll have a stretch where he pitches great mid-season. Then I think he slows off at the end since its his first year back. Overall he finishes with around 12-15 wins, but guessing wins is always a crapshoot.
ERA 3.85
IP 175.1
Starts – 29
Wins – 13
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
This
Is so close to what i was going to say that there’s no point in me making a seperate prediction
that kind of season
would make me very very happy
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'm bullish on Marcum going forward
recovering from ligament replacement surgery is less dicey than from the shoulder injuries that McGowan and Janssen suffered. It was a tiny sample size, but all reports are that Marcum seemed comfortable last year and with this offseason and spring training, he has about the right amount of time to start getting his command back. Since he was never an overpowering guy to begin with, the critical issue will be whether he has regained his command of all of his pitches – I’m guessing he didn’t need all of them to be humming to be successful in the few minor-league starts he had last year.
I do think he’ll have to ease back into it, though, and that the team should watch him closely to make sure he doesn’t overextend himself. First sign of arm fatigue, I think you have to go get him. So I don’t expect a ton of wins. The other thing is that in 2007 and 2008, while Marcum was great, he also benefited from excellent defense (including that which he provided himself, of course, but taking that out of the equation) – I’m not sure that’s going to be the case in 2010.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Shaun Marcum
W/L = 29-2
IP = 231
ERA = 1.82
Second in Cy Young voting to Brandon Morrow.
AL comeback player of the year.
Throws complete game no hitter in the ALCS to beat the Yankees
Throws out shoulder in 4th inning of game 7 of the World Series. Dirk Hayhurst comes in, pitches 5 scoreless innings and the Jays beat the Philies in the bottom of the 9th 1-0 on a Walk off bases loaded walk by Raul Chavez.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 25, 2010 2:07 PM EST reply actions
you had to go for the walk off walk by Chavez....
you had me along for the ride until then. Blew the suspension of disbelief right there.
Should I have been a little less rediculous?
How about Jose Bautista hits a first pitch fastball from a righthander 450 feet for a walk off?
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 25, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
In the perfect world...
Shawn, Shaun, Sean, WTF – IF he returns to his form – is a number 3 starter on a competitive team or a 4 or 5 starter on a championship quality team. With higher potential guys like Drabek, Jenkins, Stewart, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez, Rzepski and possibly Romero, McGowan and even Litsch – after all the pieces fall into place, Marcum just might be our number 4 or 5 starter by this time next year. IF so – Wunderbar! (which is German for – Sweet, very Fu*kin’ Sweet!)
you must be kidding...
Marcum is by far our best pitcher with any real experience, and his numbers from 2007-2008 rank high in the AL… he is a #2 on any team if he pitches to that level again.
Marcum isn't bad
He’s a good #3,great #4 starter. He’s definitely the most polished aside from Dusty, tailing fastball, great change, average slider+curve.
We’ll have to see how undergoing Tommy John affects him. If he comes back strong like Carpenter, Smoltz, Dempster, then that’s great.
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!
Marcum 2010:
15-10, 3.77, 28 starts, 185 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 175 SO.
Huge start, good finish, minimal DL time in July/August.
He will establish himself as our Ace (by default).
That changeup is disgusting.
Such optimism...
If we’re to have such bounty of luck as to have Marcum healthy and winning 15 games, can Iask the gods of baseball to cut his wins to 12 and get Vernon a .450 OBP instead?
Or making Cito the comeback manager of the year? (forget “the year”; How about “the decade”?)
Festina Lente
I'm grateful that
I can predict a 4.2 ERA in 180 innings here and not have circle-jerkers thinking he is the next Greg Maddux raging around.
Also, something in his shoulder is liable to go in the next 2-3 years.
he fields like him
No, his mechanics really bother me, too. The way he slings the ball, the inverted W, the weird timing.
If you don’t focus on his mechanics, though, he’s fun to watch – throws strikes, will drop any pitch at any time, and great changeup – gives up too many long balls, but a solid pitcher.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
is history any precedent?
I say he will pitch a full season, so lets start with 32 or 33 starts. (Is he opening?) We could make an allowance for miscellaneous injuries or other misses etc. but he has never pitched more than 25 games in a season, so that is probably a good benchmark. I will guess he pitches 23-27 games in 2010.
Marcum has pretty consistently pitched about 6 innings per game, so going with that we get 138 to 162 innings in 2010. Seems ok.
Historically, Marcum gets decisions in about 68% of his outings, so he should get 16 – 18 decisions and he wins about 60% of his decisions which implies a range of 10-6 to 11-7.
Marcum’s game-weighted average ERA is about 4, which is up from 3.39 in 2008, his best season ever. So it seems like a reasonable number given he is coming back from injury.
In sum, estimate ranges are:
STARTS: 23 to 27
INNINGS: 138 to 162
W-L: 10-6 to 11-7
ERA: 4.00
I actually based the 3.05 from a rough linear extrapolation of his year to year improvements in ERA. It would actually be something like 2.80, but I didn't want to get ridiculous lol.
4.00 is probably about right though
I can understand that perspective (lower ERA based on trend). I mean his numbers are definitely trending better and were far below 4.00 in his most recent season. So if he comes back in top notch form, than fer sure 4.00 ERA is probably too high. I just like to bake in a little allowance for recovery time, getting back to speed etc … But if he busts his tail in the off-season, than he should beat 4.00 quite handily.
I think Shaun Marcum's line will be..
9-11 (Yes, a losing record) over 25 starts and 167 Innings
4.12 ERA
148 Ks and 68 BBs for a pretty nice K/BB ratio
Oh, he’ll also pitch a shutout through 8 2/3 but Cito will bring in Camp after Marcum gives up a double. Camp will swiftly blow the game. (Sorry other Shawn.. Shaun… Sean… Shonn…. Chone…..)
Why do we do this to ourselves?
Don't forget Shawon Dunston
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 25, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
I vote
for our blog all people named some form of shawn, they all have it spelled the same way: Zvone.
What about guys named LeSean or DeShawn or RaShone?
LeZvone? DeZvone? RaZvone?
I’m naming my first born RaZvone. Kid won’t stand a chance on the playground!
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 25, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
yeah but he'll be tough and hunt you down when you are old....
and fight you in the mud and the blood and the beer…..
I am an avid follower of the Jays as well as the Washington Capitals and we have a D-Man named Shaone Morrisonn which I think is doubly ridiculous monickerly speaking.
And this is coming from a guy named Sean.
For every action, there is an equal and opposite criticism.
by Rather Bengt on Jan 25, 2010 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
Yes. Sean is the Gaelic spelling for John.
For every action, there is an equal and opposite criticism.
by Rather Bengt on Jan 25, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
My name is RaZvone
How, do you do? Now, you gonna die!
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I think Bill James' predicition is pretty fair.
20 starts 7-7 4.20 120 IP
by harukaze on Jan 26, 2010 12:23 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Anyone with a sub 3.80 ERA is way to optimistic
I like the guy, but he has dealt with a lot physically and I just don’t expect much more than a 4.20-4.50 xFIP.
That is still useful, but you can’t count on him to be an above average pitcher
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