Make your predictions: Ricky Romero
by Tom Dakers on Jan 26, 2010 12:30 PM EST
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PrintI'm not going to say all that much about him, since Jesse wrote an excellent piece on him back in November. We all remember Ricky had a great start to the season, not so great end, which is basically the story for the whole team. He's just 25 this year. His pitching line:
Bill James doesn't expect him to have a good year: 7-14, 5.59, 30 starts, 190 innings, 96 walks and 147 K.
Chone likes him some better: 8-9, .4.73, 27 starts, 154 innings, 71 walks and 113 K.
And Marcel has a better predicted outcome: 10-8, 4.47, 149 innings, 62 walks and 119 K.
So give us your prediction on won/loss, ERA, starts and innings. Throw in anything else you see happening for the young man. We'll look back at the end of the year and see if anyone came close.
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My guess
13-9
29 Starts
128 IP
ERA 4.30
141 K
79 BB
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 26, 2010 12:36 PM EST reply actions
Sorry, that was a typo
He will have 178 IP, not 128.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 26, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
lol - identical stats as 09
Will injure himself sneezing again?
Really?
I never noticed. What a co-inkee-dink.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 26, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
predictions
15-11
202 IP
34 starts
3.98 ERA
168 K
88 BB
I’m a little more optimistic then most on RR, I think he’s got the stuff to be a solid 2-3 starter and on the 2010 version of the Jays quite possibly their ace
it’s like a silent auction, the numbers keep going up, LOL
by aagoodfella on Jan 26, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
i think he'll have a pretty effective season
11-11
190 IP
30 starts
4.15 ERA
51% GB-rate
150 K; 80 BB
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
12-11
187.2 IP
31 Starts
4.25 ERA
145K
85BB
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
ZvonnyG likes to be very specific.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 26, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Marcum and Romero
I see Romero getting 30+ starts, 10 to 12 wins, 175 – 200 innings, a 129 whip. Romero and Marcum both must have LOTS of innings or the Jays are going to be looking at a very hot, very long summer.
but at that whip, i would expect a better W-L record, unless you think the Jays are going to be real bad at the plate
if you are going to snark someone for leaving out a decimal point
your snark should at least make sense. Whip = BB + H/IP
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
no, I meant 1.29 is “mighty” in the sense it is a very good whip and if he produces 1.29 whip, it seems less likely for him to achieve only 10 wins. I mean, it seems to imply a hellacious lack of run support from the rest of the team for Romero to only get 10-12 wins with a 1.29 WHIP — which is a possible argument..
If I look at 2009 season, a 1.29 whip would imply a 15% year-over-year improvement for Romero, that is a big jump, although possible. More importantly, in 2009, it would rank RR in 19th spot among AL pitchers. If I look at the top 18 pitchers in 2009, and apply their weighted average win/WHIP to projected 1.29 WHIP, it implies 14 wins. If I take the top 18 average wins and divide it by average WHIP of the top 18 and apply that average to RR projected 1.29 WHIP, it implies 15 wins.
So basically, what I am saying is that if RR produces a 1.29 WHIP (which I would love) he should achieve more than 10-12 wins based on the 2009 W-L records of other AL pitchers with comparable WHIP. It has nothing to do with decimal points.
I actually tried to use the adjective “mighty” instead of “big” or “large” to avoid that misunderstanding, but unless, perhaps I should have looked in the thesaurus.
ahh, I see, my bad
a 1.29 Whip is solid, but I didn’t see a 1.29 Whip as crazy “mighty”, so that was my confusion. Jesse Litsch had a 1.23 Whip in 2008, for example. I do think it’s reasonable to expect the Jays to struggle at the plate this season, so wins for their starters may be hard to come by. I figure Romero should cut down on his walk rate in his second go-around in the majors and his BABIP was a tad high last season, so I wouldn’t be particularly surprised to see it in the 1.29 range.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
re: snarking
don’t forget the order of operations . . . (BB+H)/IP
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
haha, you pedant!
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
LL Romero
I think Ricky will have a solid year.
W 15
L 10
Era 4.00
He is a tough pitcher who battles, he will be okay.
HAH
This is anot a direct comment at you tomstew, but rather at the term Battles. You really hear that term overused by Mainstream media and it really drives me nuts. What exactly does it mean? Does it mean the guy struggles to do what he does? Or a pitcher that competes more so then someone else?
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Based on the traditions of sports journalism...
Generally, it’s used when you’ve got a hitter who fouls off a lot of tough pitches, stays at the plate working the count and waiting for a mistake. In pitching, usually it’s a combination of some kind of bad luck, a couple of close calls going the opposite way, and the pitcher still having the poise to execute pitches where he wants/needs to. Over the course of the season, it’s often a guy who’s been streaky either on the mound or at the plate, and has kind of ‘small balled’ their way back; clutch singles, bunt singles, high count dying quails/low strike out but high grounder games, mounting innings per outing, low walks, etc.
And you’re right, it is way overused and misused.
Romero
30 starts, 180 IP, 10-12, 4.4 ERA.
I certainly hope I am wrong, but I actually think the start he had last season was sort of flukey.
No one expected him to do this well since he struggled in the minors.
I think this is the most realistic so far...
But I have a bad feeling that he might spend a little time on the DL so I foresee:
23 Starts
117 IP
8 W
10 L
4.45 ERA
68 BB
102 K
An uptick in his K/9 rate is my hope.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
Romero 2010
10 wins
170-180 IP
150-160 k
Around 4 ERA
I think he’ll have an okay year. He wont blow us away but he’ll get the job done. I dont see him getting rocked alot. I hope im wrong and he pitches like he did the 1st half of 2009
I'll wait for Craig in Calgary
and i will approve his prediction
Hey Ricky!
10-15
30 starts
187 IP
4.18 ERA
130 K
85 BB
My high loss predictions is based solely on the thought that he plays the sox and yankees and a few other aces and comes up on the losing end against some big name pitchers.
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 26, 2010 4:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Will become a good 4th starter
10-10
28 starts
170 IP
4.45 ERA
150 K
90 BB
Pretty similar to this year, except a few more innings and a somewhat better WHIP
My main prediction is that he’ll reverse himself from last year – pretty good early, stumble for a bit and almost lose his job, right the ship in late June and be nails in the second half.
I think he is a candidate for AL pitcher of the month in April, but he will have to build up some endurance to keep doing that after 100 innings.
Predictions:
~ 200 innings (someone has to do it)
4.25 ERA (first half better than the second)
33 starts (I think that counts for a start every fifth game coming from the #1 or 2 starter)
14-11
My prediction
IP 200
33 starts
ERA 4.90
9-13
BB 65
K 175
Components go up, ERA down. We don’t have Rolen anymore.
AWmusic - mp3 blog.
http://twitter.com/awmusicblog
Why does everyone seem to think
That Romero’s control is going to get even worse? Early on in the season it was obvious that Romero has above league average control, and as the season wore on a tendency to nibble and some fatigue worsened his walk rate considerably. Now that he has pitched a full season, fatigue wont be a problem. His pitches have legitimate ‘filthyness’, strikeouts will definitely increase, and his 4.09 xFIP will definitely be improved upon.
Defense and luck neutral prediction.
15-11
3.8 ERA
3.3 BB/9
7.6 K/9
205 innings
33 starts
Next Ace?
Why does everyone seem to think that in 3 years RR with be our 4th or fifth starter? At the beginning of last year people were calling him our next #2. He had a few bad months people: IN HIS ROOKIE SEASON!!! And he will get BETTER as the season progresses!
2010:
13-12 (no run support)
3.57 ERA
29 starts
188 innings
151K’s
65 BB
I like Ricky, but I think I liked him more when I was defending him against those who was sure he’d never make it to the majors.
The thing is that the landscape has changed a bit under his feet. With marcum back and with Morrow and Drabek both considered potential front end guys – and with effusive praise for Zep from all quarters…the competition for the front of the rotation has gotten a lot more competitive. (and that’s not counting Stewart, Cecil or McGowan even)
Being the fifth best guy in that group – whichever one of them is – doesn’t necessarily imply you are a “#5”
I think quality and stuff wise, R-Ro is (outside of NY and Boston) a n average #2 or a well above average #3 and I also think that of Marcum, Zep and Cecil has a chance to be that as does Stewart.
Morrow and Drabek (and McGowan if healthy) have a chance to be better than that.
(and I’d call a healthy Litsch a better than average #5 or a pretty good #4 at worst)
However you line them up – there’s a pretty good chance there won’t be a #4 or #5 qualilty guy in the rotation.
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