Make your predictions: Brandon Morrow
by Tom Dakers on Jan 27, 2010 12:59 PM EST
in Analysis
38 comments
On the list of 'tough to guess just what he'll do for us' Brandon Morrow must be near the top. This will be his 4th major league season and he's only made 15 starts but will be a starter for us. At least that's the plan. He is just 25 (26 at the end of July), he was picked up in the 1st round of the 2006 draft by the Mariners out of the University of California, Berkeley and made the major leagues the next year.
As Alex Anthopoulos has said, he throws hard. He has 204 strikeouts in 197.2 major league innings. The trouble is that he also has 128 walks in that time for a big 5.8/9 innings. There are a lot of power pitchers that took a few years, in the majors, to find the strike zone, but then there are others that never did find it. If he doesn't throw more strikes against patient AL East teams, he isn't going to be pitching late into games. His FIP was pretty high (5.05) last year, which worries me some.
So for me the question is how deep into games he can get and how many innings he can take after pitching 63, 64 and 69 innings the last three years?
Anyway if you want to look at his pitching line from last year, here it is:
Bill James guesses that he will go 7-8, 3.93 in 25 starts, 135 innings, 79 walks and 131 strikeouts. So he doesn't have Brandon throwing much more than 5 innings a start.
CHONE has him as a reliever still: 4-3, 62 games, no starts, 62 innings, 32 walks and 60 strikeouts.
So take your guess. Give us starts, innings, ERA, record and whatever else you might want to tell us about the season Brandon is going to have.
Update: I didn't mention that Morrow made 10 starts in the minors last year, for 55 innings, with a 3.60 ERA and a complete game. So that brings him up to 124.2 innings pitched last year. That might play into your prediction.
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Alright heres my guess.
….
I have no friggin clue.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
First to guess!
I have a feeling….
5-2 23 G — 15 GS — 100 IP — 4.75 ERA — 90 K — 45 BB
I think he will make great strides this year but will have a couple starts where he just gets pummeled. I also foresee him having 2 starts where he goes 8+IP, with less than two ER, and more than 10 Ks.
I have a feeling his breakout year will be his second year for us.
I honestly am so excited to have this guy in our rotation!!!! :D
Johnny said it best..
I have no friggin clue.
I love it
I’m calling him ZvonnyG all season!
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 27, 2010 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
TOUGHIE
like said above ‘i have no friggin’ clue’ but I think he’ll have a strong 1st half and fade in the 2nd half due to fatigue of being in his 1st full year of starting in the majors. So here’s my shot:
10-12
155 IP
30 GS
4.79 ERA
1.51 WHIP
151 K
80 BB
*1st half he’ll be 7-4 with an ERA around 3.70….
This is a tough one.
IMO I think he’s gonna spend some time in AAA at some point this year. He has an option left. Also reading some interviews about him when we got him. A few scouts said because of the rush job seattle put on him. He needs to basically be taught some things again.
If he’s comes out throwing good in spring I think he breaks camp with the team. If he has control issues I think he starts off in Vegas. That being said….
7-10
142 IP
22 starts
4.68 ERA
154 K
83 BB
1.48 WHIP
I see a similar line to Romero last year
Starts off hot, but eventually gets tired and has a bad second half for around a 4:50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (a little high like Romero), and a lot of K’s and a lot of Walks.
This is super tough. I mean, historically, he has been a reliever, but he does have 15 starts over two seasons, including 10 last year. That said, he has never pitched 70 innings in a single season, which does not speak greatly to 2009 when he STARTED 10 games put played in 26.
I cannot see this guy starting a full season (ie: 32 games, sans injury and 172 IP or 6 IP per game).
What to guess?
Ok, lets say he starts 15-20 games, say 16 and then gets moved to the pen. So that is 96 innings (a big jump from 70). Then he plays some sort of relief role in 25 other games, say 1.1 innings per outing. So, 124 IP (yikes, a huge jump from 70).
Ah forget it, where is the dartboard?
9-7 (7-5 from starts, 2-2 from relief)
124 IP
16 GS
ERA 4.15
145 K
75 BB
1.40 WHIP
sorry...I forgot to mention he pitched 55 innings in the minors last year...
so he doesn’t have such a big jump to full time starting….
I remember reading that some smart baseball people feel it’s a rule of thumb not to increase a pitchers innings by more then 50% of the total from the year before so if he pitched a combined 125 IP last year they could bump him up to almost 190 this year…
Not saying it guarantees anything, I just remember reading it somewhere a while back.
It's called the Verducci Effect
And the suggested maximum innings increase is 30 (total added IP), not 50% more than the previous year. Hence, Romero should be able to pitch ~200 this season.
Ok, re-do. I still think he is a little “light” for a full tape-to-tape season. Plus, the Jays have other pitchers they might want to use a bit … etc … etc … but based on your 55 MiLB innings, I will goose up my estimates a bit. Again, I am expecting him to work from the pen a little; both so the Jays can rest him a bit and so they can get a look at some of their other prospects.
GS = 18
IP = 140
ERA = 4.15
W-L = 9-7 (7-5 from starts, 2-2 from relief)
K = 150
BB = 85
WHIP = 1.40
to me he seems like a guy who is gonna hit his stride in 2011, but how can you be sure?
by aagoodfella on Jan 27, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
hmmmm
I belive he will be demoted to the pen circa the all star break so with that in mind I say:
7-12
GS 15
G 32
IP 155
K 120
BB 70
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 27, 2010 2:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions
to start the season, but
They aren’t stupid enough to keep him in the rotation all season if he does terrible and looks fatigued.
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 28, 2010 6:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
HE WILL...
be sent down to dunedin almost immediately. there, he will meet mel queen at a bar one night and start talking…
fast forward 4 years, and he will be anchoring our staff, a perennial cy young candidate, and great clubhouse presence. however, the closest he will ever get to a no-no will be a meaningless september 30th start in his rookie year.
brandon league (all the best…) will fizzle like billy koch.
What I like is that he will get every chance possible to be a starter, but he will have a tight innings limit. My guess is that he will be limited to ~ 150 innnings if he can get that many. We know Cito isn’t going to like the walks.
Predictions:
100 innings
18 starts (less than 6 innings per start)
5.5 ERA
5-9
Somehow he gets a pitcher of the week award
Cy Young or bust.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 27, 2010 4:34 PM EST reply actions
Morrow
10 Wins
150-160 IP
30 starts
4 ERA
K per inning so 150-160 k
I think he’s going to have a good year and establish himself as the “ace” moving forward. He’s going to strike out a lot of guys hopefully cut down on the walks. I see him as a good pitcher for us. I think he’s going to suprise some people.
People forget that
Morrow has absolutely no clue where his offspeed pitches are going right now, and all he has is that hard fastball with average control at best. Relievers can live on that easily, but not starters. There is definitely room for improvement, but if he comes into April as a flyball pitcher hanging sliders outside of that cavern called Safeco he won’t last long at all.
Here is a pitch FX summary of his 8 inning ‘gem’ last september
Specifically, his pitch location plot
His Fastball is in every part of the zone, but so is every other pitch he throws, not good. The success of a slider is keeping it down unless it’s jamming the hands of a opp-hitter, enough said.
I hate to rain on parades like this, but that’s not all that’s going against Morrow. His arm action is very troubling and are a possible reason for his recurring elbow problems. In Leymans term’s, Morrow shares the arm action of the following pitchers, among others:
-AJ Burnett
-Josh Johnson
-BJ Ryan
-Chris Carpenter
And nearly all of them have one thing in common: Tommy John surgery.
This would be my absolute optimistic prediction of Brandon Morrow
8-10
4.49 ERA
120 innings
20 starts
4.3 BB/9
8.5 K/9
And outside the numbers…
Recurring elbow problems put Morrow on the DL twice, one of them beyond the 15-day period. In 2011 the problems persist, and he eventually undergoes Tommy John surgery in that year or the next.
OR
Someone makes minor adjustments to his delivery, and his health issues decrease significantly, starts increase to 26, shut down in September (although i wouldn’t agree).
everyone seems to agree the mariners rushed him and didn’t give him a chance to develop. he’s obviously got alot of natural talent if he’s made it this far along without the proper amount of coaching but he doesn’t look like he’s going to catch up to his potential at the rate he’s going at now. unless i missed it, i don’t know why there isn’t any talk of fixing his delivery from the jays point of view.
it’d be nice if they turned him into a bit of a short-term project. if he shows some progress in spring training and improves his mechanics, send him down to the minors for a half season to keep working. that way he doesn’t end up destroying his arm and can fix his walk rate. if he doesn’t show any progress let him start until his arm is fried or he figures it out himself.
a hopeful prediction…
70-80 innings in vegas
and back in toronto another 12 starts, 5wins, 65 innings, 4.50 ERA, 60K but with a nice step forward in his walk rate and WHIP
if there aren’t any changes…
probably somewhere around 20 starts, 8 wins, 110 IP, 4.75 ERA, 85K and the 2 trips to the DL with TJ in a year or so mentioned above sounds about right
I agree with the 20 saves part. i also agree with the above posts about Tommy John surgery. He has the mentality and the delivery of a closer. I think trying to push him to be a starter will end up being taxing mentally and more importantly physically on Morrow.
Making him a starter will only speed up the inevitable.
Impossible to say
but I will give it a go:
11-13
26 starts
4.29 ERA
161 IP
Gets shut down in September because of inning limitations.
My optimism relies on the Jays fixing what’s wrong with Marrow’s delivery and helping him find at least one consistent second pitch.
If they don’t, it won’t matter if he gets hurt because he’ll just be throwing awful innings.
If they do, I’m gonna guess he’ll have your typical AJ Burnett season.
Here’s AJ’s age 24 season:
11-12, 4.05, 173 IP, 145 H, 83 BB, 128 K
I think that’s a fairly decent prediction for the neighborhood Morrow ends up in IF good coaching gets him on track.
I do wonder how the Jays plan on dealing with the IP increase issue though.
that sounds pretty reasonable
but probably needs to be adjusted for the fact that Morrow will be in TO in the AL East, not in Florida in the NL East. It’d be very tough to finish with an ERA that low in the AL East with those K and walk rates.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
IP are rarely an issue
for pitchers with safe deliveries, the only question would be fatigue, which tends to only affects performance in the same year. Verducci ‘effect’ examples always have a problem with their delivery, that is a fact, sucks to be Morrow in that case.
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