Make your predictions: Brett Cecil

by Tom Dakers on Jan 28, 2010 10:00 AM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

Our first round draft choice in 2007 out of the University of Maryland, Cecil was rushed to the majors. He was a reliever in Uni and only had 50 minor league starts to get make the transition from that to major league starter. But then we had a couple of dozen of injured starting pitchers so giving him a early look wasn't a bad idea.

Brett had good and bad starts in his rookie year. His stats:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brett Cecil	7-4	18	17	0	0	0	0	93.1	116	59	55	17	38	69	5.30	1.65

He also had 9 Triple-A starts for 49 innings, so he pitched 142.1 innings total total before he got shut down. I thought Cito left him in to get shelled a few times but maybe that's something that will help him out in the long run, though I'm not exactly sure how.....

His FIP was 5.37. It would be nice if he could strike out a few more batters and walk a few less, but then the guy was just 22 last season. He had a .338 BABIP, so maybe was a little unlucky.

Bill James figures him to go 4-7, 4.87, 18 starts, 98 innings, 40 walks and 85 K.

CHONE guesses 6-7, 4.97, 24 starts, 116 innings, 48 walks and 88 K.

Personally I saw a lot of things I like, but I'm not sure that he wouldn't be best served by more time in the minors. That said I think he can effective starter this year. He's got time to improve, he turns just 24 in early July. I'd guess him 25 starts, 8-10, 4.65, 160 innings, 55 walks, 125 K. But then if Dustin McGowan makes the rotation all bets are off.

Give us your guesses.

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My prediction was going to be really close to Tom’s….

I was going to go 9-11 25 starts 4.70ERA and 165 Innings, that being said I was banking on him becoming the 5th starter (I even have him on an entry level deal with my fantasy league). With the news about McGowen which I honestly was not expecting, I am not sure what to think.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Jan 28, 2010 10:04 AM EST reply actions

Pessimism

Prefaced with the statement that I really like Cecil’s stuff and he’s got a good approach. I think the Jimmy Key comparisons are good ones, and he’s going to be successful.

That being said, I see him ending up spending at least half the season in the minors. He’ll have a couple of just dominant starts, and he’s going to get shelled a few times, and overall, struggle to keep the ball down and execute consistently. I think this is the year that he’ll finally take some steps forward near the end, and by next year, will make the rotation for good.

by dexfarkin on Jan 28, 2010 10:41 AM EST reply actions

Minors

With the Jays having a lot of OK starting pitchers, Cecil might find himself starting the season in AAA just to get him more innings at a professional level and to prolong the time the Jays have over him before he becomes a free agent. I think David Purcey, who’s older, could get the nod over Cecil just so the Jays can see what he can do again after a little more time at AAA.

by bleh on Jan 28, 2010 11:11 AM EST reply actions

I dont see why everyone likes Purcey. He had a shot loast year he blew it, Cecil didnt. I think Purcey has to blow the minors away for another shot.

by FenixL on Jan 28, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

Cecils stats were not that good. Sure he looked good sometimes last year. But most of the time he looked like he was in over his head. Purcy looked just as bad. But Cecil is younger and WILL be a part of the team moving forward. He's gonna get his chance.

With Purcey we have to find out if he’s the real deal. If Purcey has a good spring then I’ll put him as our 5th and give Cecil some time in minors.

I dont see a point of Rushing Cecil just for the sake of doing it. Why stretch out his arm when the team wont be winning?

Im not a huge Purcey fan but I would like the team to give him another shot just to see if he can improve.

by syc on Jan 28, 2010 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t like Purcey either (I remember he’s a feast or famine guy ie he’ll put up 8 strikeouts in 5 innings but he’ll also walk a bunch and give up a bunch of runs too). But I think, if he puts in a good spring, he should be given a shot as the 5th starter. You don’t want Cecil to struggle at the major league level, then figure things out when he’s eligible for FA.

by bleh on Jan 28, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

Purcey is out of options. He will make the team for his last shot. Maybe in the pen.

by Andy Mc on Jan 31, 2010 6:00 PM EST up reply actions

I Like The Guy

High 4 ERA
8 wins sound about right
160-170 IP (if its a full season)
28 Games Started
130-140 K

I hope he allows less homers, less walks. I think he has a chance to be a really good pitcher. I hope he has a good season

by FenixL on Jan 28, 2010 11:14 AM EST reply actions

I think he's ready for a fulltime job in the majors

He has shown flashes of brilliance, like his 11K game against the Rays.

HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!

by BenjiDoc on Jan 28, 2010 11:40 AM EST via mobile reply actions

While getting an 11K game against any team (whether they generally hit well or not) is an impressive feat – a rookie pitcher taking the Rays for 11 is a bit of a big deal. I think he’s got great potential.

Whether that translates to “ready to be our number 5 starter this season” different story, and I’m not sure.

by Blue and White Expat on Jan 28, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

I have a hard time seeing Cecil starting with the club in the spring since we have so many pitchers. I see Tallet getting a starting job just so AA can trade him and Purcey will start with us if he has another solid spring. I think Cecil will be with us full-time about halfway.

Predictions
15 Starts
95 innings
3.25 ERA
8-3
90 K’s

by Joey P on Jan 28, 2010 12:01 PM EST reply actions

I agree with you.

by Andy Mc on Jan 31, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

Regular season

0-0 0.00 ERA
0.1 innings pitched.

He will be the 4th starter and on April 7th he will get hit by a line drive my Kevin Mench and will break his left arm.
Instead of rehabbing his left arm, he will take the next 5 months learning to pitch with his right arm. He will be ready for the playoffs and will beat New York in game 2 of the ALCS with a complete game shutout. Cito will then let him start Game 3 of the ALCS and he will throw is right arm out in the 3rd inning.

Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23

by craig in calgary on Jan 28, 2010 12:40 PM EST reply actions

Going for the ridiculous?

In that case, Cito relieves Cecil in the 3rd with Dave Stieb, who decided to come out of retirement again to pitch in the majors. Stieb proceeds to load the bases by hitting A-Rod with an inside fastball, hit A-Rod again with a pickoff throw to first, hit A-Rod again with a pick off throw to second, and then speartackle him as he tries to come home on a groundball.

In interviews later, Stieb recounted the incident to reporters, saying ‘One day, I’ll be perfect, but he’ll always be my b*tch."

by dexfarkin on Jan 28, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

A-Rod is admitted to the hospital and because Kate Hudson doesn't want to date a vegitable, leaves him and moves to Calgary

While shopping at the Safeway on 130th ave, Kate and Craig both reach for the last jar of Garlic Dill Pickles. There eyes meet and Craig says “You can have them” to which Kate replies “Why don’t we share them”. Craig then takes Kate Hudson back to his condo and they make love all afternoon.

Somewhere Alyssa Milano weeps.

Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23

by craig in calgary on Jan 28, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

Sadly, mine is slightly more believable…

by dexfarkin on Jan 28, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

You're right

There is no way Kate would eat Garlic Dill Pickles.
She seems more like a picked asparagus kinda girl.

Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23

by craig in calgary on Jan 28, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

LMFAO

by FenixL on Jan 28, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

didn’t gayRod and Kate Hudson break up already?

HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!

by BenjiDoc on Jan 28, 2010 5:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

hilarious

by aagoodfella on Jan 28, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

7-10
21 starts
5.21 ERA
125 IP
88 K
50 BB

Plus I think he makes 5-8 starts in AAA

by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 28, 2010 1:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions

I'm not touching this one with a ten foot pole

by Opisgod on Jan 28, 2010 2:00 PM EST reply actions

I can see ol’ Scotty in the background.

HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!

by BenjiDoc on Jan 28, 2010 7:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

These predictions are so challenging. Who are going to be the starters? Will the Jays opt for a six-man starting rotation? These are key factors that could thwart all our estimates.

Who ranks ahead of Cecil. Likely candidates include Marcum, Romero and Rzepczynski. Will Richmond return rejuvenated and re-claim a spot in the starting rotation? Will McGowan return ready to claim a starting role? Does the “give Purcey a chance” argument hold water?

Cecil seems like a fairly reliable starter to me, but as Dakers says, maybe he could use a bit more development. That said, I would expect him to be MLB-ready with only half a season in AAA. Room on the bench could be the biggest challenge he faces in 2010.

So, I will assume Romero, Marcum and Rzep get in the order ahead of him. This would leave him the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation to be shared among Cecil, Richmond, and maybe Purcey, Ray, Janssen, Mills and McGowan. Among that group, I think Cecil has the most staying power.

So:

GS = 25
IP = 150
WL= 9-7
K = 120
BB = 60
ERA = 4.25
WHIP = 1.50

by aagoodfella on Jan 28, 2010 4:51 PM EST reply actions

decent prediction, but what of Morrow?

by Andy Mc on Jan 31, 2010 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

I think

Cecil will surprise some people this season. His ERA was a little skewed by some horrendous outings and he was still stretching his arm out last season. He had a few stretches where he looked good and against solid teams.

He does have some potential mechanical issues, and he may be tipping during his delivery, so there are questions. But I see him taking a step forward.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 28, 2010 7:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions

I agree. I actually think he will start 2010 @ AAA, replacing the first injury/blow up.

I would expect a ~4.00 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, 100 MLB IP.

by Andy Mc on Jan 31, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions

Cecil

1-1
4 starts
23 IP
ERA 5.00

by REMO on Jan 28, 2010 7:43 PM EST reply actions

Personally...

I really like Cecil though I think he was rushed to the majors last year when the injuries hit…He’s only had 33 starts in the high minors where he dominated AA in 2008, did OK in a brief AAA stint, then started off the 2009 struggling in AAA and was then called up.

The hope would be to let him start in AAA and he pitches really well there for 1/2 the season then gets called back up. But if with a 1/2 decent spring I think he’ll start the year in Toronto and may struggle a bit.

4-8
20 starts
105 IP
5.46 ERA
1.59 WHIP
86 K

I see the first few months being a real struggle, he goes to AAA fixes things and is back in August where he finishes the year very strong.