Make your predictions: Marc Rzepczynski
by Tom Dakers on Jan 29, 2010 10:00 AM EST
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PrintAnother lefty that got his first taste of major league action last year. Scrabble had a pretty amazing year, he started the season in New Hampshire, playing Double-A after spending all of 2008 in A-ball Lansing. He made 14 starts there, before moving up to Las Vegas, two starts later he was called up to Toronto. He's made a very quick climb through our system after being drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 draft out of the University of California, Riverside, the first from that round to make the majors.
In his 16 minor league starts he had a 2.66 ERA, with 40 walks and 104 strikeouts in 88 innings. His major league line looked like this:
So between the two he pitched 149.1 innings.
CHONE predicts Marc will be 5-4 in 18 starts, 98 innings, 48 BB, 95 K.
Bill James didn't rate him. Likely couldn't fit Scrabble's name into his database.
I'll admit I was very impressed with Marc, a 23 year old who can strikeout a guy an inning in his first year above A-ball.
So give us your guess on 2010 win-loss, starts, innings, ERA and anything else you might like to add.
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These are getting tough.
Ok. Rzep will struggle mightedly for the first month or two, going 2-7 with a 6.91 ERA until a start in Atlanta in mid-june. While continuing to struggle pitching, he will go 4-4 with a HR, 9 RBI’s and hit for the cycle. In the same game, Vernon Wells pulls a hamstring running down the hot dog guy and go on the IR. Rzep will then be the starting CF’er for the Jays for the next 12 years.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 29, 2010 11:11 AM EST reply actions
Really, I can see this guy putting in a full season. So, lets say
GS = 26
IP = 155
W-L = 10 – 6
ERA = 3.60
WHIP = 1.30
K = 165
BB = 75
Really?
That is a pretty ambitious number 1.30 whip. That means he will only give up ~131 hits in that many innings.
Here is my guess,
GS = 27
IP = 162
W-L = 9-7
ERA = 4.11
WHIP = 1.42
K = 157
BB = 79
by canadiancolts on Jan 29, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
he did 1.32 WHIP last year over his 11 starts so I am basically saying flat year-over-year
you can see his WHIP splits here if you like
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8523/splits;_ylt=AhNzNWX9mH843ZAGQ8fcpEyFCLcF
he beat the 1.42 WHIP in 21 of 31 split categories last year (although I am not implying that the categories should be equal weighted) —
it is a guess and I recognize that 1.30 is a very respectable WHIP but eyeballing his game log last year, his WHIP seemed consistent throughtout the season …. so I am comfortable with 1.30
by aagoodfella on Jan 29, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Good reasoning
I say 1.42 because if you look at the splits (thanks for providing them) righties hit him much better than port siders. I expect him to get a big dose of right handed hitters this year and only the truly elite left handed hitters.
One quick question too. When the skydome roof is open does that count as indoor or outdoor?
by canadiancolts on Jan 29, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
that sounds like one for Dakers, Hugo or Jessef
by aagoodfella on Jan 29, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Found it
He had 5 starts at Rogers and 2 starts at tropicana. However the indoor/outdoor shows only 4 starts indoors.
So…. dome open = outdoor and dome closed = indoor.
My vote for the year is keep the dome closed for Scrabble.
by canadiancolts on Jan 29, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Scrabble is my favorite Jay
I’ll settle for him going 13-5 (beat the Red Sox twice) 165 IP 160K and 70BB
He’s my guess for the “Pleasant surprise of the year”. I just hope he won’t flame out like some of our former “Pleasant surprises”.
By the way, did we settle on Scrabble as his official nickname? I find it better than Zep or Rzep. However, “Chefchinski” is a good one…
Festina Lente
Haha he rolls his eyes when he hears scrabble. But who has a nickname they like? That’s no fun.
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 29, 2010 1:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Did you know?
I checked and “Rzep” in polish means either “Bur” or (this is a good one…): “Colloquial definition of material trade name Velcro, invention means of a special tape coated with small hooks, which _ on the second tape-covered fabric together to form a combination of easy to fasten and unfasten, used in the production clothing, Equipment sports and other consumer items”
DO YOU THINK HIS NAME IS A COMMERCIAL TRICK?
And I do hope he’ll stick in TO as a Velcro…
We can try VELCRO instead of SCRABBLE… maybe that’ll be more to his liking…
Festina Lente
Haha that’s pretty interesting. He is VERY polish. He says the worst thing about being on the rode is how hard it is to find real polish food. I wonder if he’d understand the velcro comment. Would be amusing.
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 29, 2010 2:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Clearly we need "Triple Word Score" seat cushions
to hold up when he K’s someone.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
that sounds fun
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
2010:
28 starts
3.89 ERA
14-11
181 innings
80 walks
170 k’s
The entire pitching staff is going to feed off of each other and become a tight bunch. Their numbers are going to be better than most people think.
those are somewhat aggressive estimates for Rzep, but I would not call them unreasonable or unachievable
Tough ony cuz he wont be using only 5 guys all year.
Once camp breaks I think our rotation would look like this.
Macum
Romero
Morrow
now after that I was tossing around an idea to split the 4th spot between 2 pitchers, each getting 18 starts. Cecil and Scrabble.
Then Any combo of Richmond, Tallet, Litch, McGowen and Drabek in the 5 hole filling out those 36 starts.
But I also think Purcey should find a few starts, Mills and Ray too.
Yourself…how do you see it going down?
I agree with Marcum and Romero as 1 and 2. I am somewhat in the skeptical camp concerning Morrow, so I can see Rzep getting boosted above him.
Your idea about 4th and 5th being filled by a bunch of different pitchers, I agree is quite likely.
I figure the rotation might start with Marcum, Romero and Morrow, Rzep in 4th and Cecil in 5th. (Richmond is a wildcard. He could displace Cecil). As time goes on, I see Rzep’s status boosting him above Morrow.
Romero should pitch most of the season so he will not miss too many starts. Marcum might miss some starts as he recovers to full strength. That leaves Rzep, IMHO, as the most eligible to pick up games.
All guessing.
why is everyone talking in itallics?
Or is my computer just effed?
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 29, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Everything from HESS2479’s post about Velcro is italicized on my computer too. So it’s not just you.
by jonnybluejay on Jan 29, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Test
This is written in italics. Either it will be normal, but I’m hoping it will be super italizised
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 29, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Or neither
Formatting fail.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Jan 29, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
hmm
12-7
28 starts
3.97 ERA
175 IP
180 K
75 BB
Zep is the best pitcher I saw in AA in the past 2 seasons aside from Madison Bumgarner but he is just ridiculous. I can see him doing really well this season with an even better record if he gets the run support.
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 29, 2010 1:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Ah, well... that's the real untangible one - the run support...
Run support is what brought Doc’s record down last year.
Dear Jay batters, if only to get the newpaper editors racking their brains how to fit "Rzepczynski " in their headlines, please provide Scrabble here with the necessary run support.
And, Vernon… THAT INCLUDES YOU!!
Festina Lente
Loved the Alphabet Kid
I could have sworn I’ve heard him called that around here, and I love that nickname for him.
Anyway;
13-9; 25 starts; 3.7 ERA; 170 IP and 155 Ks!
Scrabble, Zep, RZep....
Whatever his name is he’s going to be a good pitcher (methinks)
12 Wins
28 Starts
High 3 ERA
170-180 IP
180-190 K
80 walks
I think he'll be traded
I think he’ll be traded in April or May for something of need in the organization like a young 3rd baseman, shortstop or catching depth. He’ll start the year in AAA.
My pick for surprise (pitcher) of the year, though it doesn't sound like it'd surprise many folks round here
14-8
26 starts
178 IP
ERA 3.60
Scrabble doesnt have much of a clue where his fastball is going,
All he does know is that it’s going somewhere in the strike zone. He also has a madding tendency to become completely incapable of pitching the away part of the plate.
A basic analysis of his delivery tells me he definitely looks the lobbing-sinkerballer type, and I am not sure the control can be improved noticeably. He could get away with this and a respectable walk rate previously because minor league hitters love to chase bad pitches and major leaguer’s didn’t know him, but that’s changed. Now, when hitters aren’t chasing bad pitches and are taking free bases, he nibbles much less and gives hitters a lot of good pitches to hit.
Among starters with at least 50 innings pitched in 2009, scrabble was dead last in zone% and tied for 6th worst in first pitch strike%. Honestly, a major league average ERA is what people should expect even though he might do much worse, because his slider is truly filthy relative to just about every other 82MPH slider, the K’s shouldn’t be going anywhere soon.
I absolutely love this guy
Our lefty Brandon Webb.
26 starts
8-6
170 IP
165 K
The Chef is definitely a weird case. I’ve seen him throw offspeed pitches to start off an AB, then finish the batter with a sinker, numerous times. He hides the ball in his delivery very well, making up for the lack of velocity. Until hitters figure him out, he can get away with being wild at times. I think his control will get better with more experience.
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!
by BenjiDoc on Jan 29, 2010 4:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The word is out
…among Jays fans and Zep is the fashionable choice for breakout-pitcher. I actually think he IS, but I selfishly wish I was a voice in the wilderness on that point instead of a voice in the crowd.
That said, I’ll have to get back to you on specific numbers – got too may things going on right now.
Ok
Im going to take the under here:
12 Starts
3-6
64 IP
4.95 ERA
52 K
34 BB
I absolutely love the guy but I think the K totals will drop a bit and the BB will increase once he goes around the league again. He likely needs more seasoning in AAA, and the Blue Jays are in a position to let their youngsters take their time.
This...
…is much more likely to me than the vast majority of other posts. I think he might get a few more starts, but I wouldn’t be surprised with an ERA in the high 4’s, with something like 6.5K per 9 and 3BB per 9.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think he still needs some time.
question
Last year Zrep did about 9K per 9 and you are suggesting he falls off to 6.5K per 9
Last year Zrep did about 4.5BB per 9 and you are suggesting he improves to 3BB per 9
So, in sum, you are saying he gets fewer strikeouts (less control) and fewer walks (more control) leading to a higher era of 4+ versus 3.7 last year
I am not criticizing your prediction, cause who knows the future? no one. And this is not sarcasm but genuine curiosity. But I am very curious as to what are they dynamics you think that lead to a guy giving up fewer walks and less Ks. Thx
by aagoodfella on Jan 30, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
fewer K's doesn't necessarily mean less control at all
it could just mean that hitters aren’t chasing his pitches out of the zone. Or he is making them put the ball in play earlier in the count. Zep was extremely inefficient this year and if he is more efficient next season (getting hitters to put the ball in play earlier in the count) you will see less Ks and less walks. Both become more likely the more pitches a hitter sees in an at-bat.
I think Rzep will continue to post good K numbers, but I think it’s very likely they fall off from where they were last season. Of course, if that’s because he is more efficient and is getting hitters to hit ground balls earlier in the count, it will also mean less walks and it’s not necessarily a horrible thing. But if it is because hitters stop chasing pitcher’s pitches and make him come out over the plate, it could be bad news too.
Personally, I don’t see Rzep pitching as well as he did last season. I think hitters will know what to expect more and have more of a plan. I still see him being an effective pitcher, though, because he gets Ks and the movement on his pitches protects him to some extent even when they are in bad locations. But I think most of the predictions here are a little optimistic.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Zep has had the fortune of going through our system without being pressured or coddled, and I see the same happening this year with all the other prospect pitchers we have. I seriously think Zep could be our ace at season’s end.
30 starts
~190 innings
15-9
3.5 ERA
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