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The Future of Dustin McGowan


I know I have mentioned this in the past however is it just me that thinks that McGowan's future should be at the end of games rather then at the beginning of them?

The first reason this move pops into mind is the shoulder woes he's experienced over the last year and a half, and a way to protect that shoulder is to give him less of a work load (not to mention the Tommy John surgery he had a few years back).  If that is not reason enough, there is no need to push him into the rotation because the Jays have a lot of starting options as it is, so why risk having Dusin re-injure himself when there are other capable options to start games.  The third reason is that a contending team requires a legitimate intimidating closer, and Dustin can be just that (I think he could be similar to a Jonathan Papelbon in Boston).

McGowan has 4 plus pitches, if he was focused on closing he could amp-up the fastball into the high 90's, doing this would make his change more effective and he could really pick his spots when to toss in a curve or slider.  Before his shoulder woes he had been showing improvement with his control as well (also a major plus for a closer). 

Dustin has the intimidating pitches to be an effective closer he also has the seemingly intimidating look to be an effective closer with those mutton chop sideburns and 'wild thing' glasses.  In my mind the Jays would be wise to try the bullpen route with Dustin rather then having him back in the rotation (at least in 2010).  If Dustin proves healthy after the 2010 season in the bullpen and if the need is there in the rotation then it's possible that he could slide back into the rotation in 2011 however I personally think (more just a hunch) that Dustin can be an extremely successful (even dominant) MLB closer.

 

Thoughts?

1 recs  |  Comment 25 comments

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most very good starters

could probably be excellent closers. I think McGowan, if healthy, could be a very good closer too. But McGowan is much more valuable to the team as a starter and should only move him to the bullpen if he requires it for health reasons. The best closers are 2-3 win pitchers. John Smoltz, for example, was unbelievable as a closer but had much more value to his team when he was starting. With a mid-rotation type pitcher, I could see the argument for moving him to the bullpen, but with a pitcher with #1/#2 upside like McGowan, I wouldn’t do it unless it was demonstrated to be necessary to protect his arm.

The other thing is that while the Jays have plenty of starting arms (though not many with McGowan’s upside), there’s no shortage of options for the bullpen in the next few years either.

If Mcgowan is brought back as a starter and suffers a significant setback, then I think you’re right and the discussion should start as to whether his arm would be healthier in the bullpen.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 5, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

the thing is if McGowan is brought back as a starter and suffers a significant setback it may mean the end of his career…catch 22

by bunner on Jan 5, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But then you'd have to believe/prove that

being a closer would be easier on his arm. Closers have to have the ability to work consecutive days, they can’t spend days getting ready to pitch, they have to be able to pitch when needed. Being a reliever isn’t a promise that a pitcher won’t get hurt.

But then if the team decided that was the way they had to go I’d be interested to see how he took to the role.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 5, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As said above,

Do you not relies that most starting pitchers could/should be able to be quality back end pitchers? You said it yourself, hes got 4 plus pitches. He’s also got stamina, the ability to command pitches (not just control).

No, in my mind, unless there is glaring reasons when he comes back with his health he still needs to be given the chance as a possible 1-3 starting pitcher.

by Jesse Taylor on Jan 5, 2010 12:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think McGowan is more valuable as a starter because he has a number of different pitches he can throw for strikes. The other thing is that he has experience that none of the other Jays starters have and he’ll need to be the anchor for the rotation.

The best closers generally just have two quality pitches (if they threw more quality pitches, they’d be wanted as starters). I think there’s one or two prospects that fit better if they have the mental capacity to do the role. I say this because I think that much of the time, the closer role seems to be more mental than physical (both in the pitcher’s mind and the batter’s). It’s why BJ Ryan was so successful despite not having the greatest stuff. Even when his arm was shot, he was still getting saves (though it made us very nervous). Once he lost that aura of invincibility, he was done.

by siggian on Jan 5, 2010 1:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i agree that health aside, he's better as a starter

but for this year, I’d put him in the pen (not pitching on consecutive days) for half the year, before gradually stretching him out. He then could start 6-10 games at the end of the year to cover the young arms that get shut down.

This would limit his innings to 100-120, which would be a cautious approach to his recovery year.

by ayjackson on Jan 5, 2010 1:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’d rather see them start him down at AAA if they aren’t sure about him being ready and want to stretch him out. Working out of the pen is a very different circumstance to starting, in preperation, regularity and intensity, and I think he’s more likely to get hurt trying to adapt to one and then get thrust into another.

If they want to baby his arm, send him out in AAA or even AA ball on strict pitch counts, and extend those, letting him get back into the rythym of a starter without putting too much pressure on his arm. It wouldn’t hurt giving him a chance to work the rust off against weaker batters as opposed to sending him into high leverage relief situations to do so. Build up a little confidence, get him back to his polish of his secondary stuff and his control, and then bring him up after the All Star break into the rotation.

Unless his arm is shot, if the Jays move McGowen along carefully, he will get to the point of realizing his potential. His head is in the right place, he’s got the raw stuff; treat him right and it’ll come together.

by dexfarkin on Jan 5, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought that voluntary rehabbing assignments didn’t require an option though?

by dexfarkin on Jan 5, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i think you get about two weeks

why would he volunteer for more?

by ayjackson on Jan 5, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As long as it doesn’t effect his pay, I think there’s a very logical case to be made to the player, that in the bullpen, he’s not going to get the kind of conditioning that he needs to move into the rotation, which he can get down in the minors. That way, he comes up ready to hit the rotation and stick, instead of potentially doing the Morrow thing and bouncing back and forth between the bullpen and starting.

Spring Training is really going to be the key in what to do with McGowen, but I still think that holding him in the bullpen actually works against his chances of succeeding midseason in the rotation.

by dexfarkin on Jan 5, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dusty should be in the rotation

The dude has a very high ceiling, and I quote former Jays backstop Gregg Zaun

If he can control his fastball, he is the next Cuit Schilling

Hopefully, he is healthy, by Spring Training, and stays healthy throughout the season.

HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!

by BenjiDoc on Jan 5, 2010 3:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

McGowan has stated he’ll be ready for Spring Training, but I don’t think anyone in the Jays front office has said anything that definite.

by dexfarkin on Jan 5, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Article on TSN says he “Hopes” to be ready.

Link here

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Jan 5, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

un-retire Tom Henke’s aviators and I’m onboard

Cannot play with 'em, cannot win with 'em, cannot coach with 'em. Cant do it.

by Andrew J on Jan 5, 2010 5:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm a huge McGowan fan...

I think most of here are. He’s has so many health challenges, including his diabetes – you’ve just gotta be cheering for him.

We’ve SO MANY good looking young starters – by early 2012 Morrow, Drabek, Jenkins, Stewart and Alvarez look to be the best. BUT – WOW – REALLY, I’ve NEVER seen us with so many quality YOUNG arms.

As to McGowan – I think IF HEALTHY he can force his way into a starting role or a late inning role. I really think we should let him play where it makes the most sense for his body. My gut feeling is he’ll soon be our closer or set up man.

by Mylegacy on Jan 5, 2010 7:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’m convinced that stuff wise he could do it, I’m not convinced that it’s kinder to his shoulder.

That said, it is pretty much a given that if everyone stays healthy, our long-term closer WILL be a guy who is capeable of being a good starter.

If McGowan is healthy and in the rotation, and you believe what Alex says about Morrow, then McG, Marcum, Romero, Morrow and Zep are in line to be in the rotation and not just this year.

If someone falters Litsch in the short term and Drabek in short order fills the gap….that leaves Stewart and Cecil who would both be capeable (at least) mid-rotation starters…and both who have closing experience.

(and that without getting into Mills, Richmond, et al)

So not to dismiss the potential of Farquhar and Collins….it looks to me like there will be a guy we now think of as a starter closing soon.

by WillRain1 on Jan 5, 2010 7:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Just to throw my 2 cents into this. Given his arm troubles I think a regular regiment that being a starter provides would be more beneficial to his health.

Unless of course you want to get into a McGowan version of those Joba Rules nonsense.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Jan 5, 2010 8:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

if they’re going to build him back up the team is going to want him to be active for the whole season as well as having an inning count.

i’m sort of looking at it this way. if he starts for the second half of the year and averages only 5 innings a start (which is definitely conservative) that works out to (5 IP * 15 starts) 75 innings. to keep him active for the whole year and keep his innings around the 100-120 area he would have to be throwing 1 or 2 inning starts for the other half of the year… and there’s no way they’re going to be sending him out as a starter in AAA with a pitch count between 30-40 for the first half of the season. if he’s doing that he might as well be a reliever with the big club.

with all the young arms the jays will be using, most nights we’ll be lucky to get 6 or 7 innings from the starters. that means they could basically tell mcgown that for the first half of the season every fourth day he was going to get a couple innings of relief work. he’d be able to stick to a routine with his workouts then in july you stretch him back out with a couple 3 or 4 inning starts and let him start 10 or 12 games to end the season.

by b_man_zero on Jan 6, 2010 1:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The problem is with that you can’t schedule your bullpen like that. Emergencies come up and what not and there are days where you burn through your pen.

And if you are going to sit McGowan down in the bullpen and only use him once every 4 days. That seriously handicaps your bullpen because your basically just wasting a body down there that you can’t use.

Not to mention what happens on those 4 days where all of the sudden the 4th or 5th starter has a decent game and goes 7 or more innings. Does McGowan lose his “Start” for that week?

If you are in the bullpen, you have to be a relief pitcher, you can’t be a starter down there as I think it could mess you up even more.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Jan 6, 2010 9:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you took that every 4th day comment way too literally… the jist of it was that as long as everyone agrees that he isn’t going to be used on consecutive days out of the pen he would have days off to get in workouts and there isn’t going to be any shortage of relief innings on this team for him to get regular work.

none of that was important though. the main thing i was trying to do was point out out that if you believe he’s going to need an inning limit this year, which may or may not be true, he’s going to hit it early as a starter. this would happen regardless of what level he was in or how low his pitch count was to start the season. then they’re going to have to shut him down before he can get a full seasons worth of work in which is something nobody had brought up yet.

by b_man_zero on Jan 6, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would be fine with not getting a full season of work. A lot of young starters don’t due to injury concerns or building up arm strength.

If I were to guess I would say that the amount of innings he would get out of the Pen would be too low. I would be more worried about him building up arm strength again going into the next year to get back up to starter strength.

Regardless it’s all a bit of a moot point. He may not even play even in light of his recent comments I am more firmly in the believe it when I see it camp. And on top of that I am not sure Cito is the type of manager to stick to a Dustin version of Joba rules.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Jan 6, 2010 11:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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