Bluebird Banter Top 30 Jays Prospects: 21-30
Happy weekend, hope you all are relaxing and enjoying. Me, I spend the time before the football games writing. But then looking at our prospects is always a lot of fun and a great place to start arguments. Of course the difference between being in the 21-30 slots and being in the Just Missed Out group is pretty small.
The nice part about this year is I have more confidence in the 21-30 group than I did in last year's. I think our system is deeper than it was a year ago.
30. Scott Campbell, 2B - He was number 7 on the prospects list last year. Left-handed hitter was drafted in the 10th round of the 2006, out of Gonzaga University and made pretty good progress through our system, but started slow with the bat this year then got injured when he started to hit. Played 52 games at third, only 11 at second this year, which makes little sense because he doesn't have the power for 3B, but then he is blocked by Aaron Hill at second. A high OBP guy, .389 in his 4 years in the minors. Played in 3 levels this year (mostly AA) and hit .272/.368/.356. I still like him a lot but he's 24 now and the Jays signed Mike McCoy and Jarrett Hoffpauir, which doesn't seem to be a statement of faith in Campbell. If he doesn't become the first New Zealander to make the majors this year, I'm not sure he has a chance to make it with the Jays. On his Wikipedia page it says ‘has been compared to Chase Utley' by JP. Now that's a stretch.
29. Daniel Farquhar, RP - A right-hander, picked in the 10th round of the 2008 draft out of the University of Louisiana. Daniel started the year in Dunedin, pitched 17 innings and had a 0.53 ERA with 23 strikeouts and 7 saves. Then was moved up to New Hampshire and pitched 45.2 innings with a 2.36 ERA, 15 saves and 51 strikeouts, holding batters to a .193 average. He walked too many 5.9/9 between the two stops but struck out 10.6/9 and only gave up 1 homer. He's just 22 (23 in Feb) so he has time to cut down on those walks, he hasn't walked as many in the past. Not a big guy at 5'10" and 170. Throws sidearm mostly but will go three-quarter and over the top and gets lots of ground balls. I hope he starts the season at Triple-A, from there you never know with the number of players that move up and down from our bullpen.
28. Michael McDade, 1B - McDade was a 6th round pick in 2007 out of high school from Las Vegas. A big guy, 6'1" listed at 270, he found the power stroke this year at Lansing hitting 16 homers in 108 games, one less homer than Travis Snider hit at the same stop, though Snider was a year younger. A switch-hitter, he hit much better from the left-side (.293/.355/.498) than the right (.234/.283/.378). He's just 20 so he has time to develop; with his size it's the power that is going to carry him.
27. John Tolisano, 2B - John had a poor year at Dunedin and has dropped from the 10 spot on last year's list. He actually was doing pretty decent then hit just .179 in August and .125 in September, I wonder if there was an injury in there somewhere. A switch-hitter, he hit much better against right-handers (.250/.313/.418) than lefties (.165/.277/.235). Just turned 21 in October so he has time to right the ship, but would like to see it soon. A second round pick in 2007 he has a bit of speed, a decent eye, some power and a good glove. The good news about his season was he cut his strikeout rate some, while hitting more homers and he had some bad luck on BABIP. I expect a better year this year.
26. Darin Mastroianni, CF - Darin had a really good year, starting at Dunedin he hit .325/.426/.390 and then moved up to New Hampshire hitting .271/.372/.340 with 70 steals between the two stops. A right-handed bat, he was picked in the 16th round of the 2007 draft out of the University of Southern Indiana. He turned 24 last August so the time is now to make a move but with his speed and a good eye at the plate he could be a good leadoff hitter for the Jays. His defence is reported to be good and he must have a good arm, he had 10 assists in 70 games in New Hampshire, though apparently 4 were in one game, which must be some kind of record. If not for assists, then for base running stupidity.
25. Andrew Liebel, SP - He was 29 on our list last year so has moved up 4 spots, but then down at the bottom of list there isn't that much difference between the rankings. Started the year in Dunedin and didn't have a great won/loss record (5-13) but a good ERA 3.63 and a strikeout (118) to walk (42) rate and gave up less than a hit an inning. He made a couple of good starts for New Hampshire at the end of the year (1-0, 2.08 in 13 innings). A right hander who turns 24 in March, he does have to continue to pitch well but since being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft he hasn't had an ERA over 3.68 in any of his minor league stops. His problem is he doesn't have great ‘stuff' and, of course, we have like 20 good looking young starters at the moment. But don't count him out.
24. Justin Jackson, SS - Dropped way back from being number 5 on our list last year, it seems like we've been talking about the guy forever but he just turned 21 in December. Grouped with our trio of 20 year olds that had a poor season in Dunedin (deservedly .213/.321/.269), his season ended in July with a shoulder injury. Still has time to be the player we hoped he be when he was picked in the 1st round of the 2007 draft, has all the tools but would be nice if he showed them too us. Has good range in the field and a good arm, did make a few too many error (18) but that's part of the learning process. He seems to have a bit of a long swing, strikes out too much. At 21 it's too early to write him off but a good season would help a lot, but then even if his bat doesn't progress as hoped, he might have a career because of the glove. Still two years away and I'm thinking Pastornicky has passed him by as shortstop of the future.
23. Josh Roenicke, RP - We had a bit of a debate on whether Josh is still a prospect or if we should consider him ‘graduated'. He pitched in 13 games for us, not very effectively but throws hard (mid to high 90's) and struck out 10.9/9 in the minors over his career. He is 27 now so it is time for him to show what he can do. A potential closer, we can hope. You can read more about him in Hugo's post from when he came to the team.
22. Ryan Schimpf, 2B - Our 5th round pick this past draft out of LSU, he'll be 22 in March. Had a very impressive short stint in Auburn for his first taste of pro ball, hitting .287/.369/.426. He has a little speed, a little power and a good glove. Early to guess what he might do but seems to have the tools. Likely will start at Lansing this year and, I'd imagine, will be moved up quickly if he shows well. Left-handed bat, John Sickels said ‘at best a cross between Dustin Pedroia and Frank Catalanotto. At worst a Tony Graffanino style utility player.' I'd have to guess that worst is really not that good but there is a lot of room in there for him to be a very useful player.
21. Tim Collins, RP - Tim Bits, we've dropped him back 5 spots from his 16 place in last year's list, through no fault of his. Started the year in Dunedin and moved up to New Hampshire and had a 2.91 ERA with 116 K's in 77.1 innings with only 1 homer allowed. A small (5'7") lefty, you'd have to think that. at worst, he could be a LOOGY, but considering he is just 20 now and has made Double-A, he could be more than that. He has a low 90's fastball, a good curve and is working on a change. He does walk a few too many but he's just turned 20, find another 20 year old reliever that strikes out 12+/9 that doesn't walk a few. Would be nice to see him make Vegas at some point this year and then you never know, could be a September call up.
Hugo will be back with the 11-20 in the next little while.
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Like What I See
It looks like a decent bottom of the system, hopefully Jackson finds his bat and uses it because the speed is there and the defence is pretty good.
Mastronianni loooks like a burner, but he’s going to be 25 so i hope he gets to AAA this year.
Also i love Collins people compare him to Frasor, i would love to see him in a Jays uni eventually.
BTW. IMO Roenicke isnt a prospect
he was 26 last year
but he only has 34 major league innings. Pitchers don’t necessarily come along at the same rate as hitters so I don’t know what else you’d call him.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'd call him a big leaguer
He’s in the Majors now, and he’s going to start there when the season begins. But w.e you see him as a prospect i do not
ah, I see
fair enough, I wasn’t sure if you meant you wouldn’t consider Roenicke based on his 34 big league innings or based on his age/ability. But your criteria would have made Snider ineligible for last year’s prospect list based on playing for the Jays late in 2008. FWIW, Sickels and most if not all of the other evaluations I’ve seen for the Jays’ system have included Roenicke.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
He clearly wasn't a finished product last year...
Pitched 7 more innings than Robert Ray last year and I’d consider Ray a prospect.
He was ranked as a prospect...
By both BA and John Sickels
I left him off my list not realizing he was still under the line. But BA is a stickler for these things so I’m going to include him in my revised list in February. (conveniently Chavez leaves a spot open…)
It all depends how you define "prospect"...
Even if they are playing in the Majors I consider a player a prospect if they’re in the first year or so and there is some clear potential to improve.
Moving between levels in the organization doesn’t change the player – just our perspective on the player.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
Justin Jackson
I know the numbers don’t lie and all, but I remember watching Justin Jackson in a pre-season game last year, and being pretty excited. He at least, looked to me, like he could become a very good ballplayer and SS.
Potential
was and is there, its just he isnt tapping into it yet.
I think everyone agrees that he has a HUGE celing and if he were to achive it he could be a star player, the problem is he just hasent put it all togeather yet.
The injury
is the key I think. The report I saw said the shoulder had been bothering him since the previous season.
I don’t think we even have a sample of the real Jackson yet (as a pro) to analyze.
hopefully he’s fully healthy this year and we can see what we have.
I'm willing to give Jackson a mulligan on 2008 too
but I still think he has to drop in the rankings. Whichever way you slice it, long-term injuries can really hold back a prospect’s development. I’m really hoping Jackson can turn it around this season.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
A few comments.
Danny doesn’t like to be called Daniel and seeing as his stuff is good I’m sure his name will be popping up more and more.
Darin not only is a good defensive outfielder but a great one. He puts his body on the line and makes so amazing catches. This past season I saw him lay out and catch quite a few balls that I was sure were going to drop in as well as some good over the shoulder catches. He does lay out for a couple of balls that he may not need to in blowouts that could get him hurt but it shows great effort. His arm is great. I was at the game with the four assists and they were just testing him all game. Third base and at home and he had his A game that night. He doesn’t hit the plate on all his throws but he has the arm, just needs to fine tune the accuracy.
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 9, 2010 11:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I will once the season starts
I’m hoping to do some sort of weekly or monthly review of the guys at AA New Hampshire. It would be nice if we had a person who has season or half season tickets in Vegas and Dunedin. Not sure if we do here as I only found this a month or so ago but it could really give some insight into the future Jays.
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 11, 2010 8:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
that would be fantastic
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
yes but
Yill DM be able to hit in the majors or is he a fringy Scott Podsednick type?
that is the real question
/the defense and speed are nice, but will he hit?
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Was there a point in his career in which you’d have been satisfied with his bat as your starting CF?
2003 I guess, he had a 116 OPS+ at 27, but before his cumulative OPS+ since is 81.
Basically Otis Nixon 2.0
I’d want more than that from DM if he’s gonna be a starter.
agreed
Pods has had a great career from his point of view, but not necessarily benefited the teams on which he has played. Even with his excellent 2003, he’s been basically a win per year player getting too many at-bats.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
If Tim Collins is a September call-up this season I’m going to be one happy fool.
Love that kid!
Why do we do this to ourselves?
i doubt it
After seeing him pitch this year there is no doubt he has enormous potential but he had control issues in AA and Id be surprised to see him in AAA any earlier than the all star break. 2011 late season callup is more realistic. I hope it happens too, he’s a great kid.
by NHfishercatsfan on Jan 11, 2010 8:03 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Top 10?
Tim Collins should be in the top 10 next year if he continues like this. Awesome numbers, and at that age! Tolisano seems to have been hurt a little bit by BABIP (see minorleaguesplits.com and adjust for luck), but he did show a little power and I’m hoping either he or Schimpf have a good season and climb up the list next year. I don’t believe in Mastroianni much, though of course I hope he does get to the MLB even if only in a utility role. I mean, his bat can’t be much worse than John McDonald’s.
With all the pitching depth in the organization there’s no reason the Jays shouldn’t be able to build a great bullpen from those guys who just didn’t get starting jobs. It’s of course the 3B/SS/OF spots we should be worried about.
Not a fan of JJ's bat
I compared him to Cesar Izturis last year and while that was a stretch, he had an awful year. I just see too many holes in his bat to amount to much (e.g. I can see him a reserve role or as a starter for a few years if things go the right way but again I’m not a fan).
Roenicke if considered as a prospect should be higher. I think in this group, he’s at least will be a surefire servicable pitcher. He’s more then ready for his shot with the upside to be somewhat excited about other then his age. Around 15 would make me happy.
I think Collins will be up in the top 20 and maybe in the top 10. He had another good year, is still young and while his height says otherwise the sky is the limit on a 20 year old with his type of performance. I’m still worried about him but his performance should’ve put him higher on this list.
AWmusic - mp3 blog.
http://twitter.com/awmusicblog
it's nothing against Collins
(or Roenicke, for that matter). I just have an institutional bias against relievers as prospects. On one hand, their performances fluctuate too much year to year. But even more importantly, it’s hard to grade someone who basically has a 2 WAR/year ceiling against someone who could become an everyday player. For example, Jason Frasor had a great season last year but was only 1.4 WAR. Scott Downs has had three fantastic seasons in a row, none of which have been worth more than 1.3 WAR. Meanwhile, Lyle Overbay is basically an average first baseman and was worth 2 WAR just on the basis of his bat. Zep only made 11 starts and was worth 1.1 WAR. So I find it hard to rate relief prospects very highly, knowing that even their maximum contribution is so limited. Bullpens are very valuable, but the value generally comes from the quality of the pen as a hole rather than individual pitchers. In a weird way, even being a fantastic relief prospect is something like having a ceiling as a number 5 starter when you think about overall contribution to the team.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Hmm
maybe WAR needs a bit refining. It’s true that they influence/impact a small part of the game but from a trade stand point relievers tend to fetch more. E.g. if we traded Downs we could probably get double the WAR back but it wouldn’t really say much about how good the player is.
I’m not sure organizations reflect how relievers are valued. Perhaps a WAR position adjustment would be needed since Overbay is clearly not as valuable as Downs. I do get that relievers are erratic… but a major league reliever > minor league everyday player even if Player B has more potential to the WAR category.
That’s just my 2 cents. Good on you for admitting your bias nonetheless.
AWmusic - mp3 blog.
http://twitter.com/awmusicblog
Not sure about that.
relievers don’t seem to fetch much on the trade market to me, even good ones. With Downs, for example, I’m convinced we will get more if we hold on to him and let him leave as a type A free agent, which he is very likely to be, than if we try to trade him.
I’m certainly open to the idea that WAR needs refining but just saying "Overbay is clearly not as valuable as Downs" doesn’t get there. Relievers just don’t throw many innings, and pitching one inning a game just doesn’t have a huge impact on the outcome. If you think about it, a one-inning reliever will affect a few plate appearances per game (ideally, three). An everyday position player will probably affect just as many plate appearances, if not more, and play the whole game in the field. then throw in the fact that everyday position players play 150 games, and relievers pitch in 70-80 at the very most. Sure, there’s leverage, but that’s a huge swing in favor of the everyday player.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

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