Jays Top 5 Off-Season Needs: 1B/DH
by bunner on Nov 10, 2010 2:14 PM EST
Email
Print
2. 1B/DH – I’m grouping these together because Adam Lind will likely fill one of the spots, it just depends on who the Jays look to fill the other which will determine who plays where. Lyle Overbay handled 1B duties for the last few years but is a free-agent, his defence was appreciated where his bat left a lot to be desired.
Internal Candidates: As mentioned, Lind will occupy one spot, the other is up for grabs. After the trade of heir-apparent Brett Wallace the Jays don’t have a great deal of Major League ready talent to take over everyday 1B/DH duties in 2011. The Jays could look to JP Arencibia to handle some DH time, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion (if retained) or even Travis Snider could play 1B but would leave holes elsewhere.
External Candidates: On the free agent market the most intriguing names available at 1B are Adam Dunn, Aubrey Huff, Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee. On the trade front there are two big name 1Bs available in Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez and some others that would be considered projects in James Loney and Chris Davis. On the DH side you could look at some of the above mentioned 1Bs (Dunn, Huff, Berkman) as well as Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, Jonny Gomes and Andruw Jones as free agents. Trade wise Carlos Lee, Raul Ibanez, Josh Willingham, Bobby Abreu and Mat Gamel could fit the bill.
Likely Scenario: I’ve gone back and forth on what I think will happen here but ultimately I think the Jays will want to have Adam Lind play in the field in 2011 as they don’t want to limit a 26 year old player to just DH duties, so that means the Jays will likely go externally to fill their DH hole. DH will also cost a little less to fill on the free agent market then a capable 1B with an equal bat. Ultimately I see Manny Ramirez or Magglio Ordonez with the Jays in 2011 on a short-term incentive based contract.
Pie in the Sky: Trade for Adrian Gonzalez, he has been an all-star hitter in the toughest pitchers park in baseball, he could be a dominant force for the Jays for a long time and it would also prevent the Red Sox from acquiring him.
Up next: 3B/RF
17 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I agree with everything you have said and especially like the idea of trading for Gonzalez. I am not convinced that Lind is good enough defensively at first. I am not sure what it would take to get him but maybe: either cecil or marcum, either arencibia, perez, or darnaud, and zach stewart. I would not be surprised that all if AA pulled the trigger on the deal for Gonzalez.
he's only under contract for one more year, though
i don’t think it makes sense to get him unless he’ll sign an extension (like what the Phils did with Doc)
I imagine A-Gon-2 is gonna want a long term deal
at ~$20M/season. Similar to what Texeira got from the Yankees. And he’ll get it, too. I’d absolutely love the Jays to get him for the next several seasons (11.8 WAR over the past 2 season), I don’t see them shelling out that kind of dough. If Manny puts up ~4WAR next year in the DH hole for ~$8M like we think he can, that’s a better value for money than getting Gonzalez, though not as good a player, obviously.
Beeston has said in the past that he’d only give out one of those monster deals to a near sure thing like Tex. I think Gonzalez qualifies. They’d have their first baseman set for the next six years. Not holding my breath though – I agree Manny or Mags most likely.
by ayjackson on Nov 10, 2010 10:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I can't see AA making a deal for Adrian Gonzalez
He has already stated that he is going to test the free agent market and will not sign any kind of extension.
I would take a shot at Berkman (a longshot) for 1st/dh. He and Lind could split the duties at first. I happen to think Lind is capable of playing first decently. If not, Manny might be interesting for the right price, although I’m not particularely enamored by it.
Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena
To take a different route, how do you guys feel about Dunn or Pena?
Dunn is an extremely poor fielder but would be a good candidate to fill the role of home run slugger on this team. Unless you are expecting Jose to reproduce his power explosion from last year, this team doesn’t have a true home run slugger in line with a Delgado, Canseco or Troy Glaus that we are familiar with. While we have good power throughout our lineup, we don’t have a true cleanup hitter. Dunn fits that role to a tee. No matter which team he plays on (and he changes teams a lot), he’s a lock for 39 homers and 100 RBIs (scarily consistent). Since JP is gone, perhaps Dunn would be more open to signing with the Jays now.
Carlos Pena brings a similar package of pure power and low batting average as Dunn but with a better glove. While his defence likely won’t win him a gold glove, it is likely better than Lind’s over the course of a season.
Whoever we get, I agree that getting Lind out in the field more would be in everyone’s best interest. In the past, Lind has expressed a preference for playing in the field (albeit that was when he played more OF) as opposed to sitting on the bench.
I like Dunn in theory
he’s probably the top offensive FA out there. He was worth 4-4.5oWAR last year. 35-40HR and an OBA between .380-.400 is what you can expect (at least for the next year or two). He’s probably the worst outfielder in baseball (-30 and 37 RAR the last 2 seasons he played in the OF), but isn’t worse at 1B than Lind is likely to be. Problem is, since he is probably the top offensive FA, he’s going to cost a ton of money (I figure $15-20M/yr for several seasons - maybe 5/90 or something similar). Also, he has said he won’t DH so we’d have to play him at 1B, moving Lind to DH for the most part. Rumour is he will be pursued by the Cubs, who lost Derrek Lee last year, and I can see that happening.
Pena is kind of in the same boat, lots of power and walks plus lots of strikeouts. He was worth 6oWAR in 2007 and 5oWAR in 2008, then had seasons of 2.5 and <1. His is a good, not great, defensive 1B by fangraphs and has won 1 GG, but you shouldn’t really pay a big premium for a glove at 1B, especially if its merely good like Pena’s. He’ll come relatively cheap, but not super cheap, and you have to count on a bounceback from 2 declining seasons.
My solution, as you probably could have guessed from the outset, is to just move Lind to 1B, sign Manny and be done with it. If Manny stays healthy (as he should by DHing), he should be worth ~4WAR with OBA ~.400. This is basically the production you would get from Dunn (and likely better than Pena unless he is able to return to 2007 production) for a fraction of the price.
Well,
I’m a fan of grabbing a savvy veteran that can’t play in the field anymore, ala Vlad Gurerro.
Pardon my ignorance (can’t watch many blue jay games in Ohio), but who’s a better LF, Lind of Snider? I’ve always been surprised we haven’t experimented more with Snider at first, but like I said I have to watch from afar.
Can anyone help me with this?
Snider seems to be the better OF. His initial body type when he first came up gave the impression he wouldn’t be but he has slimmed down a bunch.
Not to say he is Ichiro out there or anything but the guy holds his own.
Lind is an adventure in the field and is the taller of the two that is why most of the talk centered around him switching to 1st instead of Snider.
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
his UZR numbers (SS alert)
were actually quite good (over a WAR in OF). he’s also pretty athletic, and most of his qualitative problems seem to be with routes, not speed, so with practice he could be (even) better
A rebuilding team in the toughest division in baseball giving up high draft picks to overpay overrated players in a very weak free agent class? Suggestions from the same type of guys who thought Gil Meche at 55mil would have been a good idea. Last season will be Overbay’s worst, and though he probably won’t be back he is still a better option than Dunn, Pena or Ordonez at that price and high picks. Draft well, buy low and be patient… only chance this team has.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Citi Field All-Star game has finally been made official for 2013
- Brett Lawrie receives four-game suspension, fined for ‘aggressive actions’ toward umpire
- PNC Park security guard loses finger in struggle with fan during Pirates game
- Create-a-Caption: Partying like it’s 1988
- The Ron Washington puppet is watching you while you sleep — and has possibly jinxed the Rangers
