Jays top 5 Off-season Needs: 3B/RF

by bunner on Nov 15, 2010 1:51 PM EST

3. 3B/RF – I had to re-think this one over the weekend. The initial "Likely Scenario" I had was with the Jays bringing Encarnacion back, now that he’s in Oakland that seems highly unlikely so I’m going a different route here.

Internal Candidates: For 3B the internal candidates the Jays have are Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista or prospect Brad Emaus. Moving Hill to 3B would obviously open up a hole at 2B which would need filling and likewise with Bautista moving in from RF. Emaus is an interesting candidate. He posted a solid offensive season in AA/AAA in 2010 posting a combined .290/.397/.476 line, though most of that came in hitter-friendly Las Vegas. For RF the internal candidates would be Bautista and Travis Snider (creating a hole in LF).

External Candidate: On the free agent market the top RF draw is Jayson Werth followed by Magglio Ordonez (mentioned as a DH candidate), Brad Hawpe and Jeff Francoeur who was let go by the Rangers, though he might be more of a platoon player at this point. On the trade front Carlos Quentin and Bobby Abreu might become available. For third basement the pickings are even more slim with Adrian Beltre leading the group by a large margin with no one else really worth giving everyday at bats to. On the trade front for 3B options we have heard Alex Gordon’s and Dan Uggla’s names linked to the Jays while Arizona might make Mark Reynolds available I feeling the asking price would be too high for a strikeout machine like Reynolds. Other interesting trade candidates would include Chone Figgins, Mark Teahen, Brandon Wood, Mat Gamel and Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Likely Scenario: The likeliest scenario here is for the Jays to explore the trade market for either a 2B, 3B or RF’er and fill Bautista and Hill in the spots not occupied by the newest Jay. Though I think for Dan Uggla the price will be too high so the likeliest trade candidate I see would be Alex Gordon. Should that fall through I’d look for the Jays to sign Orlando Hudson for 2B and move Hill over to 3B.

Pie in the Sky: Would love to see the Jays make a big offer to St. Louis for Colby Rasmus (likely centered around Kyle Drabek) and put Rasmus in CF, move Wells to RF and put Bautista at 3B.

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Comments

Though Alex Gordon would be a good candidate, it might be a tough sell to put him at 3B. He isn’t much of a defensive upgrade at 3B with a career -2.1 UZR/150 and 3 seasons with 10+ errors (including 2009 with 10 errors in only 50 games).

He did a good job last season in left field, putting up a 9.1 UZR/150 and a .985 pct. Compare that to Sinder’s 23.5 UZR/150 at left this season and the fact that you really cannot move Snider to RF, and it is obvious Snider needs to stay at left.

So where does Gordon fit in?

I like picking up Hudson, but Hill has very limited experience at 3B. He has only played 3B once at the major league level, and only for 30+ games in 2005.

Honestly, though Rasmus is the least likely move we could make, it probably would be a good option to pick up a right fielder and move Bautista to 3B. Jedi seems to have on and off years at 3B though, so not even that is the “everything is awesome” scenario.

by kudzupo on Nov 15, 2010 4:22 PM EST reply actions

I would prefer to move Bautista to third and pick up an outfielder. Though Bautista is not a fantastic 3rd baseman, he is not a great RF either. I am a fan of attempting Mastrioanni in CF, and moving Vernon to RF. If we pick up a third baseman we end up with a log jam in the field in a couple of years, and a CF that is to old to be in CF. (This limits moving Bautista to third, and so the outfield becomes set with Vernon in CF, Bautista in RF, and Snider in LF). If we try Mastrioanni (his upside projects to a Gardner type), we have a CF, and maybe by 2012 his hitting is adjusted enough that we fill a whole at the top of the order.

by peterzm on Nov 15, 2010 4:55 PM EST reply actions

I’m not certain who’d be available for us to go after, but I don’t care what position they play, just grab the best player possible at those positions, regardless of what position they play.

Best is a 2b, move Hill to 3rd.
Best is a RF, move Bautista to 3rd.
Best is a 3B, done and done.
Best is an LF/CF? pull a switch a roo.

The point I’m trying to get is let’s get the best player possible for our system, rather than sign someone based exclusively on position.

by ddbumpus on Nov 15, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions

yup, definitely

in general, though, it’s much easier to find a quality offensive outfielder than any other position.

by benk on Nov 15, 2010 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

agreed

I don’t much love the idea of moving Hill to 3B, but if that’s the way to clear room for the best player you can, do it. That said, I think it will be easiest to find an OF, meaning Jose will be moved to 3B

by SuckaMD on Nov 16, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Does anyone like Tsuyoshi Nishioka? The Jays could put him at 2nd and move Hill to 3rd. He has good speed and he had .423 obp in 2010 (career year) . He would be a bit expensive (at least $15M + the contract) but the Jays wouldn’t have to give up any prospects or players to sign him. He is 26 years old.

Please count the players on every play.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 15, 2010 6:09 PM EST reply actions

He doesn't really have good speed

He gets caught stealing all the time.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Nov 15, 2010 8:47 PM EST up reply actions

by good, I meant above-average. He was successful about 2/3 of the time I believe. He is also a switch-hitter with + defense.

Please count the players on every play.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 15, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions

the fangraphs scouting report on him said

something to the effect of “will be an effective starter on a team in the bottom half of the league.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement if you are looking at him displacing Hill at 2B on a potentially top team.

by SuckaMD on Nov 16, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

Here’s the fangraphs article:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/thoughts-on-nishioka/

he says, bq. overall I see him as a Ryan Theriot/Chone Figgins type

Chone Figgins is a pretty good player. He had 6.1 WAR in 2009.

Defense, speed, and patience at the plate usually translate well to the majors. I don’t think anyone really knows at this point how well he will hit. Here is another article

He looks pretty good in the videos I posted below. For me, it is like signing a major league ready prospect without giving up any compensation. It’s a bit of a risk as he might not pan out and he does have some history of injuries. It depends how much he costs.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 16, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

and Ryan Theriot was replacement level last year

interesting comparison. I just don’t think the Jays need to be looking at the middle infield to upgrade the team. Better to go to the OF or maybe find a 3B.

by SuckaMD on Nov 16, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

In that scenario Hill would move to third and our infield defense would look pretty good. Did you watch the videos below? You can’t say a lot from watching a few clips, but his defensive range and batting approach seem good. Japanese baseball is fun too :)

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 16, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

2/3 isn't enough

Needs to be 3/4.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Nov 17, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

generally, but it depends on how you pick your spots

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Nov 17, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, but 2/3 isn’t ‘all the time either’. He will get signed more for his defense, obp, and speed generally than as a base stealer. He only had 20 or so in the Japan league, I believe.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 17, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

22 SB, 11 CS in 2010
175 SB, 73 CS for 70.6% for his career. Probably he would have <20 SB’s a year in the majors. The most he ever had in a season was 41.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 17, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions