Manny being a Blue Jay?
There are lots of rumors about Manny Ramirez signing with Toronto soon. And, of course, lots of debate about whether it would be a good thing. John Lott on twitter seems especially upset about the idea. Course he also seems to think that Yunel Escobar is a lousy SS.
Personally, I kind of like the idea of going after Manny, as long as we aren't paying too much. For one thing, it would be a signal that we are trying to win. The last couple of off-seasons the team made it clear we weren't trying to compete, which, I think, is a terrible message to send to the fans. You tell them you aren't planning to compete and then later complain when the fans don't some out. Signing Manny would be a clear signal that we could be in the race this year. It can't hurt to build some interest.
I think this year is likely a long shot but add a DH and a 3B, a year of growth for a young pitching staff and better seasons from Hill and Lind, we could have some fun. The Rays might drop back some. The Yankees and the Red Sox are each getting older, I can't see any downside to putting together the best group of players we can, as long as we aren't mortgaging the future too much.
What are Lott's complaints?
- He'd rather see the money go to signing draft choices. This is a total non-starter to me. We spent a small fortune on signing bonuses last year and we have a fair bit of player salary money coming off the books this year. Rogers seems committed to spending what is needed to sign draft picks. I'm sure the money paid to Manny wouldn't come out of the draft budget. I'm sure Lott doesn't believe that either.
- Manny has bad habits and is selfish. I don't know the guy, I can't say anything about him being selfish, perhaps he is, that's one of those things I don't care about as long as he player is getting the results on the field. Bad habits? Manny has always been said to be s great student of art of hitting. He apparently works very hard at his hitting, sort of like Johnny Mac works hard on his fielding. I imagine that that would be a good example for the rest of the team.
- That signing Manny doesn't fit with Anthopoulos' 'long-term plan'. That one I don't understand either. If signing manny doesn't fit the plan then neither did the signing of John Buck last year. Since there isn't a young player that Manny would be blocking from getting playing time, I think he fits right in with the plan. Build depth in the minors and not rush anyone into the majors. Signing Manny doesn't effect our minor league depth at all.
- 'Remember Frank Thomas'. Another argument that really has nothing to do with signing Manny this year. No one is suggesting we sign Manny for 3 years at $10 million per. It doesn't look like we are competing with a bunch of other teams to get Manny. A reasonable one-year contract or one plus a team option wouldn't be too bad.
One that Lott didn't mention is the idea that he is a 'cancer' in the clubhouse. I don't know, he's been to the postseason 11 times. If he is a cancer, it sure isn't hurting his teams. Or if it is, they hide it well.
And, of course, everyone's favorite insult, he is lazy. Well, he's lazied himself to 2573 hits and 555 home runs. That's my type of lazy. Everything I've read says he works as hard on his hitting as anyone does. I know, lazy is the catch all for talking about a player you don't like, don't know much about, but can't point to anything else to complain about. Maybe he is, I don't know. If he gets on base 40% of the time, he can be as lazy as he wants.
Yeah, Manny had an off year last year, but then his batting line was .298/.409/.460 not that bad for an off year. No one on our roster had a .400 OBP. I think it would be a good to have a veteran show the young guys that taking a walk isn't a bad thing. We have a lot of 'see pitch, hit pitch' type batters, someone to show them that working the count isn't against the rules would be
He missed time last year with hamstring and calf injuries and had an operation for a sports hernia after the season. you have to figure that since he wouldn't be expected to play the outfield for us, he shouldn't have as much trouble. If he does, well let's not invest too much into him.
Me, I'd like the team to sign him. We seem to be slowing building some excitement around the team. This should only add to it. And I know it would give us give us stuff to talk about. Selfishly,I hate dull moments, he should give us things to talk about.
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I'm all for getting Manny
but I think it’s going to cost a lot more than 1 year/$7 million
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Really?
There was an article on mlbtraderumors this morning where Boras said that Manny was looking for a 1 year incentive laden contract. I’d say $7M base and up to make $10-12M on incentives would be a pretty good deal going both ways.
right, I'm including incentives
based on playing time. It would be great to have some of the money tied up in playing time incentives rather than guaranteed, though.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
How's about a mutual option for a second year?
$7m guaranteed, up to $10m with playing time incentives, with a mutual option for the same contract the following year?
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
You are right...
I had meant to say plus incentives but I didn’t. I also meant to say that I really like John Lott and don’t know why he’s being so closed minded on this one.
Manny’s in a tough spot. He’s got all the “issues”, plus the fact most of the contenders (IE – the teams most likely to spend money) either already have a DH or want to keep it open for someone else. And most rebuilding teams probably don’t want to spend the money. And he has to DH, so he’s limited to 14 teams.
I’m guessing it’s between us, the Rays, the Tigers, the Rangers or the Twins. I think the Tigers and Rangers are hunting larger fish, and the Twins probably bring back Thome (who worked nicely for them last year). So I’m guessing it’s us or the Rays. Since we seem to have more money to spend, I’m guessing it’s us.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
A happy non Manny being Manny without a glove
Isn’t such a bad thing to risk on taking.
One year + a team option sounds good to me.
If he shows his age then so be it. If he hits… oh man. Watch out AL East.
Only one stipulation. Keep away from the field and make sure he doesn’t own a glove. Period.
Finally… everyone bitches about Frank Thomas. He did have a very good 1st year with the Jays. 26Hr and 95 RBI was nothing to complain about. It didn’t end well, but not everything the Jays do ends well. It’s more of an excuse than anything IMO.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Nov 16, 2010 1:03 PM EST reply actions
The problem with the Thomas deal was that it extended for more than one year.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
yeah, one of the reasons that Manny appeals
is that he’s pretty clearly seeking just a one-year deal. I’d expect any team option after that year is going to have to be very expensive, though
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I’d even be up for a contract that starts around there, with a healthy raft of incentives for him. He’s still an incredibly patient hitter, even if he’s not the same power threat he was before. However, any offer that starts looking like multiple years and gauranteed money into eight digits, and I’d say no.
I say no and found this in Associated Press piece in the Toronto Star from Sept 2nd as he moved on to the White Sox. Makes me think of Frank Thomas all over again. The Jays shouldn’t be signing cast offs.
“One look at this year’s numbers certainly seem to indicate that. Ramirez was on the disabled list three times, missed 58 games, and had a meagre eight home runs to show for his $20 million (all figures U.S.) paycheque.
He’s finishing like many players of the steroid era, breaking down frequently as he ages, swinging late on fastballs, and hitting balls to the warning track that used to easily carry the fence. He’s pretty much been that way ever since he was suspended for 50 games last year for using a fertility drug that masks steroid use, and there is no real reason to believe going to Chicago will change that."
he put up over .400 OBA
and a .382 wOBA despite a very poor year power-wise. Bill James predicts him a .401 OBA and .503 SLG – good for a .393 wOBA. he’s an excellent, excellent hitter. as for the DL trips, playing DH should help his health prospects. yes, he took PEDs, he got suspended, and now (presumably) he isn’t, and is still hitting baseballs very very well
Bill James
Unfortunately Bill James is not always right. Take a look at Jeremy Sandler’s article in the Post. I think people don’t look into how age related decline will be a factor. Also how well did he do in Chicago…not very. Not only that the talk of tantrums that surface in LA again. This guy is not worth it. Everywhere he goes he leaves a sour taste.
I can't understand how anyone could get worried about 69 at bats.
especially when he had a .420 OBP in them. It is working too hard to find something wrong.
Incentives is the way to go
Low amount of guaranteed money and a ton of incentives so it isn’t a risky signing. We can pay him 20 mil, but he better hit like .350 and drop 40 bombs. Motivation is good for someone with Manny’s reputation.
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!
incentives cannot be based on production
just playing time. Manny has generally been very good at staying on the field over his career.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
New manager
If anyone would know whether Manny was a “cancer” in the clubhouse, our new manager would know. Since he publicly endorsed Manny right away, you’ve got to know Farrel is on board with this. Farrel would also know whether he is lazy or not.
Manny on a one-year incentive-laden contract is perfect. I’d say 7 guaranteed, with another 7 million in incentives (with crazy numbers or team results to get that full amount) is perfect. I’d even add an option for a second year if has an average Manny year. The option would prevent the Jays from being on the hook if he has a down or injury filled year this year while giving Manny some security. If he reaches the numbers for the option, you’d want him back anyway. I’d give Manny the right to decline the option.
incentives cannot be based on production
is the new “Manny is a Type A Free Agent”
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
We had to find something else to replace that talking point...well done.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Ok games played or at bats is fine by me. Can incentives be based on team goals such as finishing xth in the division or finishing with x rated offense?
nope
Major League Rule 3(b)(5) provides as follows:
“No Major League Uniform Player’s Contract or Minor League Uniform Player Contract shall be approved if it contains a bonus for playing, pitching or batting skill or if it provides for the payment of a bonus contingent on the standing of the signing Club at the end of the championship season.”
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Hmm... I wonder how Greinke's contract (at least according to cot's baseball contracts) skirts around those rules.
Apparently;
award bonuses: $50,000 each for Gold Glove, All Star, LCS MVP; $0.1M for WS MVP; $0.1M for Cy Young ($50,000 for 2nd-5th place); $0.1M for MVP ($50,000 for 2nd-5th place)
(I have no clue how to do block quotes)
oh, those are common
not sure what the rule is that says you can have that, but I know that’s a clause in plenty of contracts
great question
incentives for winning or placing on various awards don’t count as performance-based awards for whatever reason. they are common in mlb.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Because they are voted on and not statistically linked? So the player technically doesn’t have direct control over them?
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Well they are statistically linked… you know what I mean.
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
yes, that's the stated reason, as far as I know
I’m not sure that it squares with the language of the rule but there it is.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Interesting.
I guess the rules aren’t specific enough to ban those types of bonuses… or something. My legalese is somewhat lacking, so I’ll trust the explanation you’ve given haha.
The formatting guide (there is a link in the comment area) will tell you. Just type bq with a period after it and then the text.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 16, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Or click the butan!
you can do that too :)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 16, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
I had no clue those buttons were there.
Somehow my eyes have managed to completely miss them all this time lol. Thanks for pointing that out.
you can also be super hacker-y
and type <"blockquote"> text </"blockquote> without the quotes. it makes me feel cool.
I still do that too
a holdover from the dark days where I had to write my own html to write for the site.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
the lineup tables for the game threads were a huge pain
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'm in a computer science class right now
Learning basic HTML…it’s a pain in the ass.
I'm thinking that when the Leafs win the Cup, I'll lose my drinking problem.
by leafsfan4life94 on Nov 17, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
I want.
Give me a one or two year deal (preferably one + options). I was sending responses to Lott on Twitter and getting no responses to most of his critiques. I didn’t understand his arguments either.
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
I noticed you putting up a really good argument
between his feelings about Manny and his complaining about Escobar, I’m not sure what’s going on with him. I like the line about Escobar’s numbers with the team being bad it you don’t count the first ten games. If you discount the best 20% of anyone’s season, it won’t look great.
He seems to think if you do one it blows up the rest of the plan I just dont see that being the case at all for the exact reasons you described in your post.
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Agreed
The discussions on this board during the offseason have been even better than the regular season discussions.
I’d say that bodes well for the health of the franchise, if the fans are still just as engaged when no games are being played.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
I agree it’s fun (love that blog…) but I wouldn’t go as far as to
say that bodes well for the health of the franchise, if the fans are still just as engaged when no games are being played.
We’re just a bunch of bored fanatics here… ;-p
Seriously, though… or… err… on a second thought… Got nothing serious to say… [I can see myself getting flagged again… Johnny! keep your banhammer where I can see it!]
Festina Lente
Banhammer? Oh no…. I have something special in store for you
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Wow
So, I am sitting here in my office, giggling with joy at the thought of Manny coming to Toronto, when my sister in law asked why I was giggling. As she doesn’t know a lick about sports, I explained the situation as thus…
It is like if Gossip Girl signed Harrison Ford on do film a 5 episode guest appearance. While Gossip Girl is popular, and gets good ratings, it still is on at the same time as House and Two and a Half Men, so it never wins its timeslot. And while Harrison Ford isn’t the star he used to be, he can still act well, and is a Hall of Fame type calibre actor that can both bring a lot of buzz and some actually acting goodness to Gossip Girl. Will Harrison Ford alone help Gossip Girl win the Timeslot? Maybe not, it will make the race that much tighter.
She understood
There She Gooooooes!
by Rugged Rock on Nov 16, 2010 2:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
is that you, Bill Simmons?
a more ridiculous (and awesome) sports analogy I have not heard in a long time.
If Manny comes on board
Is there any way you play Lind out in LF instead of at 1B? or is he stuck at first?
Stuck at first unless you're willing to live with his Adam Dunn-like butchery in the outfield.
Which we shouldn’t be when first base is probably a viable spot to put him (just as it was with the nats with Dunn).
woah, woah, woah
-5 RAR in 200 games for Lind. Dunn was -27 RAR in EIGHTY-FOUR games last year. no comparison.
that said, yeah, Lind’s stuck there. Jays probably would rather acquire an IF and keep JoBau in the OF then replace JoBau with Lind, and shift Jose to 3B
Lind is not Dunn
noone is. Dunn is probably the worst defensive player of his generation (or, at least, the player with the highest playing-time-to-defensive-ability ratio). Lind is bad and should not play the outfield, but he’s at least semi-competent, which is far better than Dunn.
Okay, that was an unfair comparison on my part.
My point was more that if Dunn can stick on first, there’s no reason Lind can’t. Dunn actually looked pretty decent on first this year too, at least by defensive metrics.
Not good mind you, but not awful either.
agreed
this is why we should just put Lind at first (where IMO he will be slightly below average) and sign Manny. Especially if he actually wants to play for Farrell/Toronto. $7M for 1 year would be a steal, maybe with another option year. You aren’t going to get 4WAR for anything close to that any other way on the FA market.
Just do it.
That would create a Lind-Wells-Bautista or (more likely) Lind-Wells-Snider OF with Bautista at 3B.
Not acceptable defensively, I think.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
I'd take Snider over Bautista in the outfield.
But agree that neither combination would create a very desirable outfield to watch.
The arm
I don’t know how you wouldn’t take Bautista in the outfield if at all possible with the arm that he has. It’s one of the best in baseball. No offence to Snider as I really like him as a player, but there is a reason they play Bautista in right and Snider in left.
then you would have to DH Snider or put him at 1B
both of which does not help the team
Bautista can at least play 3B decently (he’s not good by any means), so might as well put him there
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Nov 16, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
also
as has been discussed endlessly, as fun as Bautista’s arm is to watch in the OF, range and speed is far, far more important than arm strength as far as preventing runs goes. he’s a below average (not necessarily by a large margin) defender at both positions, so might as well put him where he fills a need.
you can't give performance-based incentives!
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Adam Lind could be better than Devon White in the outfield. Devon is 47 now…
by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 16, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'd still take Devo
IIRC, he was there for the let’s-honour-Cito night. Still looked pretty spry. Maybe we should sign him to play CF instead of calling up Mastro (or whatever it is we’re going to do).
There are real question marks going into next year, but also a very real potential to be one of the best teams in baseball. Although I am hopeful about players like Bautista, Arencibia, Lind, Hill, Snider, Wells, Escobar their are some real questions about what we can expect in terms of production from them. I like the Man Ram move a lot b/c it’s low cost (both in terms of contracts and not costing prospects) and it could be the piece we need to keep us competitive if things come together next year. It would put fans in the stands and if we are out of contention he could be traded at the deadline, or get’s us a draft pick at the end of the year.
He wouldn't get us a draft pick either
I can’t imagine we’d offer arbitration, no matter what he does this year.
a very real potential to be one of the best teams in baseball.
Hey! I thought we already ARE the best team in baseball…
Festina Lente
statistically
third best in MLB (BtB). with Manny, bounceback seasons from Lind and Hill (they don’t have to play to 2009, just somewhere in between 09 and 10), Snider playing every day and Drabek every fifth, and a year of growth from the starters, this team could be very very good. even with JoBau’s regression.
Don't forget we're unfortunately also likely to lose some production
we’re unlikely to get as much from the catching spot as we got from Buck last year, vernon will be a year older, we could have some injuries to deal with. I have a positive outlook, too, but I guess I’m “cautiously optimistic”
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
if JPA can perform to his MLEs last year
assuming no improvement (since he had a crazy-ridiculous year, but also being one year older) we’d probably only lose half a WAR there, and another half WAR from Vernon’s defense probably not being as good as last year.
Hill and Lind could (and should) easily improve 2 WAR each, if not more. playing Snider everyday is another WAR. Drabek over revolving door of 5th starts is at least a WAR (even if he’s not quite as good as Romero’s rookie year). Manny’s offense over Edwin’s (and his replacements like Hoffpauir) will be 2 WAR. Morrow almost certainly gets another WAR – if only from 30 more IP. acquiring a CF to allow Wells to shift over would nab a WAR defensively (from Wells in RF, if not from the CF himself).
that’s 8 WAR, ignoring improvement from Cecil/Romero/Marcum, assuming Manny produces like last year (he was on track for 5-ish oWAR in 09), and assuming Lind and Hill both have very mediocre seasons
So here is the question...
How much is too much to sign Manny? Everyone is bouncing the “7 mill” price around, which seems reasonable. However, this is a Boras client remember, and Boras knows how to squeeze every penny out of GMs.
So, the question is, barring the fact of the fact he is a Type A free agent (wink), at what price does everyone would be too much for Manny?
There She Gooooooes!
my limit would be
18M/2 years, but I’d consider up to 10M/year with one club option year. remember we just shed $5M by letting E5 go, and considering that Manny could very well post 4 oWAR (oWAR=WAR since he’s DHing) that’s an absolute steal.
Boras is his agent
But Boras is also the one talking about a one year contract and Manny being a pure DH.
The way Boras and Manny make lots of money on this is for him to play one year and prove that Manny is still a force with the bat. If he does that, they can clean up next year with a much higher contract and multiple years.
Boras also knows that this year there is a very limited number of teams who would want Manny and have an open DH slot. If they ask too much in this contract, no team will want him and he won’t get the big contract in the following year. I think the Jays are one of the teams contending for his services but they don’t absolutely need him. The Rays might actually need him more, but they are also trying to reduce payroll so spending 7-10 on a DH might be a bit rich for them. The rest of the good teams have settled DHs this year and I’m not sure that Manny really wants to play for a sucky team like the Royals.

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