The Season that Was: John Buck

by Tom Dakers on Nov 21, 2010 3:11 PM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

When we signed John Buck in December of last year, it kind of met with a 'that's ok, but when are we going to sign a catcher'. I always kind of liked Buck when he was a Royal. At one time he was a pretty good prospect but Kansas City has this reverse midas touch with prospects, they can turn any prospect into a bust. I guess that is a good argument for going after Alex Gordon.

In an off-season when every free agent catcher seemed to be getting a two year contract, Alex was able to sign Buck to a one year deal. As it turned out, it was a good idea for Buck. After a really good year he was able to get a big 3 year contract from the Marlins.

Buck was coming off injury filled 2009, though he didn't hit bad in the 59 games he got into, with a .247/.299/.484 line. Most of us were pretty pessimistic on our preseason predictions for Buck, except for Dexfarkin, who guessed he'd hit 20+ homers and flirt with .300. Pretty accurate. For some reason SB isn't letting me put up the stats widget for Buck, I guess that is what we get for not signing him. In 118 games, he hit .281/.314/.489 with 20 homers, 66 RBI and 25 doubles. Fangraphs has him at a 2.9 WAR, giving an $11.5 million value for the Jays, a very nice season.

John was one of the few of our Jays that hit lefties well, .409/.411/.705 vs. LHP and .246/.288/.430 vs. RHP.

He hit a little better on the road (.295/.323/.518) than at home (.265/.302/.454).

He was great with runners in scoring position, .307/.337/.477.

His walk dropped a bunch his year (from 6.4% in 2009, to 3.7% in 2010). Makes it seem like he caught the 'don't take walks' disease that runs through our club house. He struck out a little less (29.6% in 2009, 27% in 2010). Line drive rate was down (18.2% to 16.1%). Ground ball rate up a bit (37.1% to 39.1%). Fly ball rate didn't change at all (44.7%).

His longest hitting streak was 10 games. He never went more than 4 games without a hit.

By month Buck hit:

April: .215/.268/.477

May: .297/.342/.554

June: .271/.289/.500

July: .328/.338/.478

August: .283/.306/.348

September: .287/.330/.517

Pretty consistent.

Defensively, he seemed to work well with the pitching staff. He doesn't have the best arm behind the plate, he only threw out 16% of base stealers in 2009, but midway through this season he started, he started throwing from his knees and it worked really well. Overall, for the season, he threw out 28% of base stealers. He wasn't great at blocking balls in the dirt, though he seemed to improve as the season went on. He was awarded just 4 passed balls but there were 39 wild pitches with him behind the plate.

His favorite team to play? He had 4 terrific games against the A's, .667/.692/1.667 with 3 homers and 7 RBI. Least favorite? He went 1 for 8 with 3 k against Arizona. Of the AL teams, he hit just .115/.148/.231 in 8 games, against the Cleveland Indians.

Buck is only the second Blue Jay catcher to get to 20 home runs, Darren Fletcher got to 20 in 2000. Ernie Whitt made it to 19 a couple of times (course he didn't have Cito putting him out there every game trying to get him to 20) and Rod Barajas made it to 19. The 2.9 WAR would put him in a tie with Ernie Whitt's 1987 season for second best season by a catcher in Jay history, just behind Whitt's 1983 season at a 3.1 WAR.

He was great to watch. I hope things go well for him in Florida.

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"Of the AL teams, he hit just .115/.148/.231 in 8 games"

against who?

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Nov 21, 2010 3:43 PM EST reply actions

Cleveland...

by Tom Dakers on Nov 21, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

Ah… where I look brilliant without being able to justify it at all.

Seriously though, I really liked Buck’s swing in Kansas City. I thought he had a good, fairly controled swing for such a big guy, that he was constantly sabotaging by trying to go the other way instead of airing it out and driving the ball. My entire prediction was based on two things; a) my extremely low regard for KC’s player development record, and b) the fact that Gaston was an extremely good hitting coach and Murphy’s swing as a player was similar to Buck. I figured if they’d give him the green light to drive the ball, he’d shock enough pitchers that they’d start trying to nibble him more and make mistakes.

I think Buck will regress next year, mostly in average, but not hugely so. I think the Marlin’s signed a guy who’ll hit in the .260/20+HR range for another year or two at least. Not the elite showing like this year, but solid power with a terrible OBP that works well with pitchers.

by dexfarkin on Nov 21, 2010 4:01 PM EST reply actions

I think he'll lose some home runs

that’s a big park out there in Miami.

But then, I shouldn’t argue with you…you called it perfect.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 21, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

The left field and left field power alleys are about the same as Rogers, which is why I think he’ll hold steady. As I recall, he only hit, what, 2-3 to right field, and 2 to centre? I could be wrong, because I can’t find his HR spray chart right now.

Also, he’s going into a league with slightly weaker pitching, which I think will help his numbers a bit. Mind you, that’s totally guesswork based on very vague factors.

by dexfarkin on Nov 21, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

I think he's virtually a shoo-in to regress

based on his BABIP numbers. As Tom said, his batted ball profile, and walk and strikeout rates were essentially unchanged from the previous year, but his BA was ~40 points higher than his career numbers and his BABIP was 45 points higher than his career BABIP. This suggests to me that he got lucky on a good number of batted balls, which probably won’t repeat itself next season.

I don’t see him repeating this season with the Marlins. I think JPA will be able to match Buck’s production next season and exceed it over the next few years.

And we’ll enjoy that tasty sandwich pick.

by SuckaMD on Nov 21, 2010 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

For me, he'll always be "BucKKKKKKKK the King of K's"

But he did have a great year for us. Seemed to be liked by the pitchers, and have a good influence all round…

Good luck in Florida, John.

Festina Lente

by HESS2479 on Nov 21, 2010 7:01 PM EST reply actions

“He was awarded just 4 passed balls but there were 39 wild pitches with him behind the plate.”

Thanks to RR

by xhliang on Nov 22, 2010 2:37 AM EST reply actions

I think the point is, since its subjective, there are a number of those “wild pitches” that could have easily been chaulked up to passed balls.

Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Nov 22, 2010 8:56 AM EST up reply actions

He should be referred to as "The All Star" John Buck

Good to see him rewarded with a 3 year deal.

HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!

by BenjiDoc on Nov 22, 2010 3:33 AM EST reply actions

Mike Wilner

I remember Mike Wilner severely damning Cito for not pinch hitting Randy Ruiz for Buck in a game early in the year. Looking back now, I am sure he would like to retrack that rant.

by leonard euler on Nov 22, 2010 3:44 PM EST reply actions