Bluebird Banter Top 40 Blue Jays Prospects, #30-21
Hugo got us started on our Top 40 Prospect countdown, earlier in the week and I've been procrastinating over getting on this part of it done. The amazing thing about doing this 40 player list is there were a number of interesting players that didn't make the list.
30. Michael McDade (number 28 last year): I think I had him a few spots higher (I'm a sucker for guys that can hit the ball a long way). He hit 21 home runs, at Dunedin, in a pitchers league and had a .267/.315/..448 line. McDade does have to learn to take a walk and could strikeout less, if he wants to move up the list. He was our Webster award winner, team MVP in Dunedin. He had a great little run in the Fall league, hitting .375/.450/.557, with 11 walk and 13 strikeouts in 88 at bats. Michael is a big guy at 6'1" and 260 lb (so he is almost Prince Fielder sized). He turns 22 next May.
29. Brian Jeroloman (not listed last year): Brian had been on our list two years ago, but fell off with a poor 2009 season. This year he was really good in his second time around that New Hampshire, hitting .261/.429/.419. He's got a lot of things going for him, he's got a good arm and is good defensively, he's a left handed batter and has a really good eye at the plate. If we weren't up to our armpits in catching prospects, he'd be higher up on the list. I don't think he'd be an All-Star starting catcher, but he'd be at least as good as most of the backup catchers in the game. And, sometimes, backup catchers get to be starters for a couple of seasons at some point in their careers. It is nice to see that he's been added to the 40 man roster. He would be fine as a fill in if there is an injury.
28. Chris Hawkins (new to the system): Hawkins was picked in the third round with our 8th draft pick this year. The Jays grabbed him out of high school in Georgia. He played SS in high school (aren't all none pitching prospects shortstops in high school?), but the Jays played him at 3B and left field in the GCL. He didn't overwhelm in his 46 games there (.255/.324/.350), but you shouldn't read too much into the first few pro games of any player. He's said to have a 'high ceiling' as a hitter, he should hit for a high average and has good gap power that should improve as he fills out. Chris also runs well, he stole 8 bases in his 46 games. Defensively he has a strong arm and could end up at third or center field. I totally missed him on my first pass, fortunately Hugo picked up on him.
27. Marcus Knecht (new to the system): Knecht was also picked in the third round, after Hawkins out of Connors State College. He had a nice start to his pro career, hitting .268/.345/.437 with 5 home runs and 7 steals at Auburn. He is a big guy, 6'3", 210 lb, but still runs pretty well and should turn out to be an average corner outfielder defensively. He has really good power.
26. Brad Mills (10th last year): Brad didn't have a bad year, a 4.97 ERA at Vegas is pretty decent. He struck out 100 in 112.1 innings there. He will be 26 in March. I like him, but at best he'll be a back of the rotation type of starter and with the pitchers we have coming up through the system, it likely won't be with us. He made 3 starts and 4 relief appearances with the Jays, posting an 5.64 ERA, he struck out 18 in 22.1 major league innings.
25. Kellen Sweeney (new to the system): Another that we picked in the third round this year, he was our 6th overall pick out of Jefferson High School in Cedar Rapids Iowa. A high school shortstop the Jays played him at third in his few games in the GCL. He had a good 16 games there, hitting .267/.450/.444. He's said to have a good bat with good power. Likely he'll end up at third base and would be good there defensively. The brother of A's outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Kellen had Tommy John Surgery in 2009.
24. Gustavo Pierre (17th last year): An international free agent, he moved up from the GCL to Auburn this year. He didn't hit great, .236/.283/.344 with 3 home runs and 8 steals in 66 games. At least he learned to take a walk this year, jumping from 3 in 2009 to 17 last year. He is still just 18, so he was very young for his level. Gustavo is a big guy, 6'3" so as he fills out he's likely that he'll have to move over to third. He is really a raw talent, we'll just have to hope that he develops the way everyone thinks he should, I had him lower down on the list, so this is a compromise.
23. David Cooper (12th last year): Our first round pick in 2008 out of the University of California, Berkley was looking like a bust, in his second season in New Hampshire, until the middle of the season when he suddenly started hitting. David hit .192 in May and .211 in June then in July he hit .317/.398/.529 and .286/.369/.480 in August. The question is: did he suddenly find the secret to his swing or was it just a hot streak? Us Blue Jay fans don't have to look far to find a player that suddenly found his stroke He will be 24 going into next season so he is really going to have to show something if he wants to stay on the prospect lists. I'd think the Jays would want him in Triple-A next year.
22. Darin Mastroianni (26th last year): Our 16th round pick in 2007 out of University of Southern Indiana. You guys know the year he had, .301/.390/.398 with 46 steals. He hit even better in the Venezuela Winter League, going .372/.463/.469 with 10 stolen bases in 31 games. There really isn't much bad you can say about him, his defense in CF looks good, has a good arm. He is 25 now. The Jays added him to their 40-man roster, but then they also traded for Rajai Davis , who would seem to be a similar type of player (though Rajai isn't as willing to take a walk).. At worst I'd think Darin would make a good 4th outfield type.
21. Brad Emaus (18th last year): He had a terrific year, starting in New Hampshire, hitting .272/.402/.434 there, then he was moved up to Vegas and continued to hit, .298/.395/.495. Between the two he had 13 stolen bases. I think he'd be a good choice for utility infielder along side of John McDonald, but I guess the Jays don't agree because he wasn't put on the 40-man roster. He's a possible Rule 5 pickup for someone. Brad doesn't strike out much and is willing to take a walk.
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Knecht and Sweeney
are you sure they had identical numbers?
you have them both as: 3B and LF, .255/.324/.350, 8 stolen bases in 46 GCL games. I’d look up their numbers myself but I’m in class right now
Mastroianni
Is the reason he is so low on the list that he is still a year or two away from the majors?
He seems like a guy with a high ceiling, I may have had him up higher on the list
I guess it comes down to his lack of power
But frankly i think his minor stats compare very well to Brett Gardner’s. The difference in hype must come down to defence?
Gardner was 26 last year and has been in the majors for 3 years now
Darin turned 25 last August and was in Double-A.
The difference in the two
is there age 22 season. Gardner was pushed all the way to AA in his second season. Mastro struggled at lo-A
But Mastro did at 23 what Gardner did at 22 (reached AA) – he did as well at 24 as Gardner did at 23 (actually better figuring in the steals) but the Yanks aggressively promoted Gardner and the jays were conservative.
So Gardner played 94 games at AAA at 24 (his birthday is in August too) and 42 in the majors, and Mastroianni will start his time in AAA at age 25. and knowing the jays they will be conservative again – but that’s the team’s philosophy not Mastro’s talent. There’s every possibility Mastro will have as good or better stats at AAA than Gardner had.
So basically he’s one year behind Gardner in terms of performance which is all that’s under his control.
and I’ve read that the age 22 season was injury affected but i don’t remember the details.
IMO, the reason for the difference in hype is (a) he’s a Yankee; and (b) he was a third round pick, while Mastroianni was a 16th rounder.
hey, you have him at 22 in your list too....
I wonder if that is the only spots we’ll agree on? TamRa’s list is here.
Mastro’s value depends on his ability to retain a high OBP at a major league level (similarly Emaus). If he can then we fill a huge whole either in the one or two spot in the order. I agree with Tammy that we have not boeen aggressive enough in promoting him and that his advanced age should not be seen as to much of a slight on his value. I tend to think the jays undervalue these types of players, which is especially frustrating given their need for speed and OBP at a major league level. I was disappointed by Emaus not being protected and hope both he and Mastro get a chance to play some games at the major league level this season.
In fact if you compare a guy like Arencibia (who I like and I think should be given every chance in 2010) with Mastro, I would suggest that Mastro’s upside in a high priority need in CF (Gardneresque 5.4 WAR) both better fits the Jays needs (speed and OBP, moving Wells to right) and has a better chance of achieving that type of performance than say Arencibia. I think patient contact hitters have a better chance of adjusting to mlb. Thus in my mind I value him higher than Arencibia (high power, less OBP, average??), and similar players.
Are you guys going to update the 20-30 positions in the Top 30 widget now or just wait until the complete top 40 is done?
Nice list
Nice to see guys getting dropped down with decent production and growth, like Emaus, which means an influx of better talent
Don't know why we have Eamus so high
Sure he can take a walk… but when you’re putting up 298/.395/.495 in Vegas, its not that great… those numbers are pretty similar to Hoffpauir’s i believe… I guess he could be a good bench guy to have, but I would put almost all of those higher-ceiling guys above him.
Onions Baby Onions
Emaus was just as good in a not so hitter friendly New Hampshire.
He could be a major leaguer this coming year. You may think he could only be a bench player but he could also be a pretty good second baseman, while the guys just below him have several levels to get through before they have a shot at the majors.
and
Doing it at 29 is not as impressive as doing it at 25 in your first turn at AAA.
Sweeney, Hawkins, Knecht and Murphy
At this time I have no idea in which order to rate these guys – my personal order would be Murphy, Sweeney, Knecht and Hawkins. The wonderful thing about them is that they all have serious projectable skills. This time next year they should start to sort themselves out. All in all – I LOVE our system now – best I’ve ever seen and I’ve followed it reasonably seriously (at a non-professional fan only level of incompetence) since 1983.
Haven’t been following that long, but i am impressed with the youth in the system. The last draft brought so many young player’s with good projection, it made me smile. Just hope they all can pan out would be even happeir. So cant wait to see them all probably start at different levels with the additional farm team we added.
I just did a Minor League search on Gustavo Pierre and came across Juan Pierre listed on the Vegas 51 squad, any comments?
Kellen Sweeney?
How can a a kid who is just 18 years old be dignified with any sort of ranking? He had Tommy John surgery in June of ‘09 and has only played 16 games in our system. Those games were also played out of position at 1st & 3rd base.This is also based on a very small body of work ( 45 AB. 12 SO 15 BB ). I like what he has done but really isn’t more of a wish and a prayer.
By that logic any player just drafted into the system should not be ranked?
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
???? That doesn't make sense
He only has 45 at bats in our system ; it’s not like he played a full season or even has a somewhat significant body of work to make any evaluation. He’s played what 16 games inthe past two years. That is the logic of the payer ranking
he has value as a prospect
he should be ranked according to that value, there’s plenty of scouting reports out there on him.
Deck McGuire didn’t pitch at all in the Jays system this year, however he will presumably be on the top 20 of this list somewhere.
by masterkembo on Nov 26, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
I agree it doesn’t make any sense, but that is the crux of your argument.
Who care if he only played 16 games in system, as Masterkembo pointed out Deck has played 0, but obviously he is going to be ranked higher then a lot on the list.
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
It isn't like the Jays look to our list and say
‘Hugo and Tom like Sweeney let’s put him on the big league team’. As we go up the list you’ll see more guys that haven’t played in our system. If they are busts, they won’t be on the list in a year or two.
You don’t think he has a ‘body of work’ to make an evaluation, but the Jays think he has a enough to be a second round draft choice. I haven’t seen many reports saying they made a big mistake, so why wouldn’t he earn a spot on the list?
I don’t think third base is playing out of position. Everything I’ve seen suggests that would be the place he’ll end up.
he was a second round draft pick
hardly a wish and a prayer
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

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