The 5 Biggest Swings of the Bat in 2010

by Rugged Rock on Nov 29, 2010 10:41 PM EST

Over the last couple of seasons, I've come to love the statistical analysis done by Fangraphs. Specifically, the analysis of Win Probability Added or WPA. For those who are unfamiliar with the Fangraphs or that statistic will still recognize WPA from this site's Jay of the Day (JOD) award we give at the end of the game. In essence, every time a player come up to bat, the site determines how much they added or subtracted from the likelyhood of their team winning. Hence, Win Probability Added.

If one were to look into the inner depths of the Fangraphs database, you can look up every at bat from every game of the season. So, when I had a couple hours, and decided to look up the 5 Biggest Swings of the Bat the Jays hit this season. And by that, I am referring to the 5 At Bats that had the biggest upswing in winning probability added to victory.

Now, before you read the Top 5 after the jump, take a couple minutes and see if you can think of/remember those really big hits...

The Top 5 after the Jump.

Number 5 - Lyle Overbay

July 25th, Tigers 3, Jays 3. Top of the 9th, 2 Outs, Jose Valverde pitching. Wells on 1st. Lyle Overbay at the plate. 0-1 Pitch. This is what happens...

.485 WPA added

Number 4 - Jose Bautista

April 11th, Baltimore 2, Jays 1, Top of the 8th, 2 Outs, Kevin Millwood pitching. Johnny Mac on 1st. Jose Bautista at the plate. 1-2 Pitch. This is what happens...

.517 WPA added. Oh, and it was his first Home Run of the season.

Number 3 - Fred Lewis

May 9th, Chicago White Sox 8, Jays 7. Top of the 9th. 0 Out. Bobby Jenks pitching. Snider on 3rd, Buck on 1st. Fred Lewis at the plate. 3-1 Pitch. This is what happens...

.520 WPA added

Number 2 - Adam Lind

September 12th, Tampa 4, Jays 3. Bottem of the 9th. 0 Out. Rafael Soriano pitching. Hill on 1st. Adam Lind at the plate. 0-2 Pitch. This is what happens...

.655 WPA added

Number 1 - Adam Lind

May 5th, Cleveland 4, Jays 3. Top of the 9th.2 Out. Chris Perez pitching. Hill on 1st. Adam Lind at the plate.1-2 Pitch. This is what happens...

.742 WPA added

So? Did you guess right?

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Comments

Hrmm

So, my Fan Post fu is a little weak. I thought it was gonna embed the videos for me. Anyone know if I can make the vidoes appear in the article?

There She Gooooooes!

by Rugged Rock on Nov 29, 2010 10:45 PM EST reply actions

There is an embing code that is sometimes available on sites like Youtube.

I dont believe you can emb MLB videos.

Never Explain. Your friends do not need it and your enemies will not believe it anyway - Elbert Hubbard
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Nov 30, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions

Cool

So, I just did a quick edit to link the videos instead of having the urls in the article. urls are tacky.

There She Gooooooes!

by Rugged Rock on Nov 30, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

Those were all very satisfying games

Unlike 2009 when come from behind wins were lacking.

One thing about Lind’s HR against the Indians was that it set off one of the funniest rants ever by a Cleveland broadcaster outside of the movie Major League.

I’ve seen it, but it seems that MLB got all upset and got it pulled of Youtube.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Nov 30, 2010 7:30 AM EST reply actions

.517 WPA added. Oh, and it was his first Home Run of the season.

You say that like he had a few more……
.
.
.
wait a minute……

Never Explain. Your friends do not need it and your enemies will not believe it anyway - Elbert Hubbard
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Nov 30, 2010 9:27 AM EST reply actions

I was at the Number 1 and number 3 games

which were both road games. Pretty sweet to see 9th inning come-from-behind victories for your team in an opposing park. I was pretty obnoxious in the stands when those happened, I thought someone was going to accost me while walking out of the park in Cleveland.

Of course, the next two Jays games I went to were both 9th inning come-from-behind victories for the Rays, so that sucked.

by SuckaMD on Nov 30, 2010 11:41 AM EST reply actions