Jays Top 5 Off-Season Needs: Closer
by bunner on Nov 8, 2010 11:07 AM EST
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PrintI wanted to take a look at potential needs heading into 2011 and discuss the available options the Jays have for filling them. I've ranked the needs by what I feel is the most important and will lay out who I think the internal options are, the best external options, the most likely scenario to fill the role and a little 'pie in the sky', what I'd do if I had an unlimited budget scenario.
The order I’ve come up with for the Jays needs are:
1. Bullpen
2. 1B/DH
3. 3B/RF
4. 5th Starter
5. Bench
I’ll first look at the bullpen and continue posing the remaining positions soon.
1. Bullpen - Now that Jason Frasor, Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg all seem headed to free agency I think that bullpen becomes the Jays #1 need heading into 2011. Many of the remaining 2010 bullpen crew did well in 2010 and should do so again in 2011 however if pushed into later inning roles they may not be as successful.
Internal Candidates: The bullpen will be filled with some of the following: Shawn Camp, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson, Casey Janssen, Brad Mills, David Purcey, Josh Roenicke and whoever loses out on the 5th starter spot.
External Candidates: There are always plenty of free agent relievers available, this year headlined by Rafael Soriano as the best free agent closer (not including Mariano Rivera), while JJ Putz, Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, Brian Fuentes, Chad Qualls, Kerry Wood and Jon Rauch have all had closing experience. Canadian Jesse Crain has the desire to close in 2011 as does Trevor Hoffman and others like Joaquin Benoit, Frank Francisco, Grant Balfour and Takashi Saito could all handle late inning duties. On the trade front we’ll probably here Heath Bell’s name in a lot of rumours and other names like Bobby Jenks (unless he his non-tendered), David Aardsma and Leo Nunez could all be on the move. In the never say never category we could see Jonathan Papelbon or Jonathan Broxton shopped during the off-season though the likelihood of them moving is pretty low.
Likely Scenario: I’m not confident that any of the internal candidates would succeed in the closer role in 2011, they are better suited for mid-late inning work. I think the most likely scenario is that 1) Frasor accepts arbitration and remains with the team in 2011, I doubt that if he declined he’d find many suitors with is 2010 struggles and type A status and 2) the Jays will add someone like Jesse Crain, JJ Putz or Chad Qualls in hopes they can battle with Frasor for the closer/set up role.
Pie in the Sky: I think (depending on asking price) the Jays should pursue Jonathan Broxton. With the Dodgers uncertain ownership situation and Broxton’s late season struggles he might be available for the right package and I am confident he could easily return to his pre-2010 form.
Up next: 1B/DH
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Closer
Gregg is more than adequate. Best option is to begin negotiations with Gregg and sign him if reasonable terms. Other options including a Plan B (i like concept of trading for Broxton) follow if unsuccessful.
Gregg was pretty good
but not particularly fantastic, and as Torgen noted in another thread, if you “trade” type B closers you each get a supplemental pick. so for a reasonable price I don’t mind signing any of those guys, but I don’t want to spend a ton of money on the bullpen if possible (as in: use Janssen, Accardo, Carlson, etc)
Gregg is the perfect
example of what Earl Weaver called “a 2 packer.”
Every time he takes the ball it’s an adventure. He is capable of striking out 2, then walking 2, with a double in between. And every appearance takes forever with all the stalling he does between pitches. He makes you so nervous you smoke 2 packs of butts every time you put him out there. Besides, he short arms the ball so much, he couldn’t throw more like a little girl if his life depended on it.
Avoid hypertension, take the pick, then run like a thief.
by Infield Pete on Nov 13, 2010 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
My preference would be to identify a younger player to develop into the closer rather than to use an established closer. I’m not quite sure that the Jays are ready in 2011 to win the division (although being in the pennant race is certainly achievable with a bit of luck) so I’d like them to work on this piece of the puzzle. If the younger player doesn’t work out, try to acquire one for 2012.
I think what the Jays should do is re-sign Gregg or sign a similar average stop-gap closer. The younger closer-to-be should fill out the setup role a la Ward to Henke. If the senior closer falters badly, go with the closer-to-be.
Ward and Henke
had career ERA+es of 124 and 157, respectively. there’s no one in the system close to that calibre – unless, perhaps, they converted a big time prospect to the pen (Stewart)
I wasn’t saying we had someone in the system like them, I was saying I would use the senior closer and closer to be in the same way. That is, the senior closer would pitch the 9th and the closer to be would pitch the 8th.
FWIW, I can see the possibility of them converting a big time prospect to be the closer. It’s much easier to turn a starter into a closer than the other way around. The converted starter can always drop his least effective off-speed pitch and survive on only 2 or 3 pitches. It’s a lot more work to stretch out a closer and perhaps even add a pitch to his repertoire.
We could do worse
than Purcey. Mid to upper 90’s on his heater, and a plus breaking ball. If he can put a heater or 2 high and tight in the strike zone, then bounce the breaking ball after that, he’ll be hell on wheels.
by Infield Pete on Nov 13, 2010 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Qualls
Criminally unlucky last year, decent BB rates (my key for my ideal bullpen is a group that doesn’t give out free passes but can also strike out a guy or two).
I don’t mind Putz either, but I think he’s going to be looking for a big payday based on his bounceback year.
Crain is a decent option, although maybe not for closing.
I like Frankie Francisco alot, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Im not sure Frasor goes to FA. I think he may accept arb as he isn’t a dominant reliever and the Type A status has more a chance to hurt him. So on that point I agree with you completely.
For me I think the Bullpen is filled internally as I don’t think AA is going to want to spend big bucks on a relief pitcher, Maybe another signing ala Gregg with low cost.
So in closing…. I think I agree completely with your likely scenario.
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
You are right about Frasor
Frasor lives year round in Toronto. He says that he really want to stay. He says his wife is Canadian. He says his kids are Canadian. His says his dog is Canadian.
I think he will take less money from arbitration than sign somewhere else. I have no problem with that. The guy still throws in the low to mid 90’s most days, he throws strikes. He can and will take the ball whenever you need him to. He’s a valuable set up guy.
Just don’t let him close anymore.
by Infield Pete on Nov 13, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Woods
If the jays are serious about contending next year then going out and getting Kerry Woods would be a good move. He proved last year that he can pitch in the AL East and unless you are going to go out and get Soriano, Woods may be the next best option. Frasor accepting arb. would be the worst thing possible.
Frasor back would be the worst thing possible?
the man had a 113 ERA+ this year (after an insane 178 the year before, and with a pretty high .320 BABIP) with a career ERA+ 119. he’s a very good reliever, though maybe not “closer” material. yes, two picks are probably more valuable, but I doubt that’s what you were referring to.
the 2 draft picks is exactly what I was referring to. This is the deepest draft class in resent memory and to lose 2 top picks would not be worth one more year of frasor. We are building for the long term not the short term.
right, fair enough
but I think it’s much closer than you allude to. we could very possibly be 10 wins better this year (especially if we sign a big bat to DH/1B), and if we are, a solid to very good arm in the bullpen would be very helpful. 2 picks would be really nice, but a) i doubt it would be a first rounder (no one is going to sign ONLY Frasor as a type A) and b) we either get the picks or a very reliable RP
2 picks would be juicy
But it’s hard to not like a guy on your roster because he wants to stay and he has the right to turn down more money as a FA than what he gets by opting for arbitration, as is his CBA right.
The guy can’t close. Who cares? He’s a plus set up guy. He throws hard and he throws strikes. He is durable and always willing to take the ball. He can give you 1 batter. He can give you 2 innings. He can pitch 3 days in a row. That is a valuable arm. That skill set and mindset is not easy to find.
Besides, you can’t have all young guys down in the Pen, they need some veteran leadership too.
I can’t think of any 2 guys who would be better at that than Camp and Frasor.
8 picks would be outstanding. 6 picks in the first 50 odd picks is way more than anybody else is going to have. Quit your bitching.
by Infield Pete on Nov 13, 2010 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Did You flag it for the use of the word “bitching” or because Pete pointed out a certain obssesion some of us have with hoarding draft picks?
On either account, I’d like to hear your reasoning for that flag
Festina Lente
I’ll agree that it’s not an agument. It was probably more in the spirit of a plea.
The argument should have been: In terms of priority, Draft picks are important but it can’t be the sole measuring stick to evaluate a move by the GM. One would have thought that real, tangible players that we get (or give) are at least as important. Recently it seems that everybodygets overexcited about everything regarding those draft picks (Did I mention that Manny is a ty…[Flagged]..gent?) If we have a type A free agent, he probably is quite decent player. Should we automatically let him go for the draft picks? (I know that neither you, benk, nor the others around here think that way, but one has to exaggerate to get the point across…)
All in all, I don’t find “bitching” such an offensive word. It’s no worse than “whining”…
I’m done bitching rambling ;-p
Festina Lente
nope, this is true
and it’s a fair point. my issue was with how it was presented.
anyway, draft picks ARE, in fact, very valuable. Jason Frasor probably isn’t better for the team than two good shots at good players. especially because of the position he plays – good relievers are very easy to find, and are not very expensive. as a result, the best outcome would most likely be Frasor leaving and getting signed, and us signing another pretty good reliever to take his place.
I disagree with your assessment of the Jays' needs
relievers are notoriously difficult to project and the Jays do have some good pitchers who are sticking around with the team. I can see all/most of Camp, Purcey, Janssen, Rzep, Hill, Roenicke being good out of the pen this year. If Frasor accepts arbitration, that’s not a bad thing in my books as he is a very effective arm who will be gotten for one year at a reasonable rate.
Closer is a position created by the advent of the largely-meaningless save category (by which I mean there isn’t really anything inherently more difficult about pitching in the 9th inning, what matters is the skill of the guys you are pitching against). Even once-dominant closers can quickly collapse, and it’s not always easy to figure out who they will be (e.g. Papelbon). We’ll be able to find someone to close for us effectively, even if it’s not a big name acquisition or if it’s an in-house solution.
The first order of business is to clear up the 1B/DH spots and figure out who is going to play 3B (i.e. E5, Bautista, or acquire someone else). I think the Jays will acquire a bullpen arm or two via FA or trade, probably mid-level guys (Rauch? Crain? Aardsma?) who can be gotten on the relatively-cheap and won’t cost draft picks (I think Balfour is type A), but sorting out the batting order is the most pressing order of business.
by SuckaMD on Nov 8, 2010 1:01 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Interesting that you mention Richmond
Bad shoulders are dicey, but assuming he comes back healthy, he’d be a decent closer.
He has the good heater and a curve that drops like an elevator. 2 plus pitches; the stuff for the job. When he was healthy he racked up a lot of K’s. He’d strike out more not pacing himself in a start. He’s the type of guy to go right at you, not nibble around. He’s been around and made it to the Show facing longer odds than most. That tells me something.
I only would worry about the recovery time he would need. Could he close 2 days in a row?
It’s a long shot to me, but more than a half bad idea; certainly worth a try in Spring Training.
by Infield Pete on Nov 14, 2010 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
Richmond would be a good righty specialist, but not necessarily a closer
he has a lot of trouble with lefties
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'll pass on Broxton
He’s not exactly the cool head you want as a closer. He utter lost it after blowing a 4 run lead against the yanks and pretty much sucked down the stretch.
As much as KG sends my heart into palpitations, he seems much more emotionally tougher.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Nov 8, 2010 1:11 PM EST reply actions
I don't know know what you're getting at either
KG still came out and did his tightrope act. It was one lousy game vs a 1/2 a season long freakout for Broxton.
The Good: A National League All-Star. Up until June 26, Broxton was one of the best closers in baseball. Next to automatic.
Through that point, he was 3-0 with 17 saves in 20 opportunities, with a stunning 0.83 ERA. He had struck out 48 while giving up just five walks. The LAFD was ready to name him the new fire chief.
The Bad: After June 26, he went 2-6 with five saves in nine opportunities, had a 7.58 ERA and struck out 25 while giving up 23 walks. The turning point was his June 27 appearance against the Yankees, when he threw 48 pitches and blew a four-run lead the day after recording the final four outs against New York.
The whole article
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgers/2010/10/daily-dodger-in-review-jonathan-broxton-back-from-the-ashes.html
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Nov 8, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
As far as I'm concerned
Emotionally toughness is a necessary requirement for closer. If one is going freak out after a horrible blown save then there is really no point in keeping one in the role.
I think that Broxton is too fragile emotionally to survive the daily grind of the AL East.
Blown saves against the Yanks, Rays and BoSox are a part of the life in the AL East. I hate it when it happens, but they happen whether or not I want them to. I love the way Mariano Rivera just shakes bad days off. Look at what he’s done since 2004 vs Boston or even 2001 WS vs Arizona when he blew critical saves in the playoffs. He just kept going instead of freaking out about it.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Nov 8, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
all right, I'm going to give up
because I honestly know nothing about Broxton’s meltdown – so I can’t say at all whether he actually did melt down, or just hit a rough patch. either way, I wouldn’t mind Broxton if the price is right
rays' pen
If we could get either balfour or benoit away from the Rays, that would be sweet.. and doable. Getting Soriano would be a pipe dream. If we’re looking for a nice bounceback option: Fuentes. I don’t think Frasor would end up being the closer for more than a couple of weeks, even if we don’t bring in someone else. Roenick is the most likely of our relievers to have a break-out season. Taylor Bucholz wasn’t mentioned in the list; he was picked up late in the season from Colorado with an eye towards a spot somewhere in the bullpen in 2011 as well.
Balfour is Type A
who, unlike Manny Ramirez, will be offered arbitration. We almost certainly won’t be seeing him in the Jays bullpen next season as it would come at the expense of our first round pick and we very likely won’t be signing multiple Type A FA’s
Joaquin Benoit
I like Benoit alot. Not sure if he’s closer material but I prefer him to Qualls, Wood and everyone else not named Rafael Soriano.
wow
didn’t notice how insanely ridiculous his stats were with TBR. I’m wary of him for two reasons: sub-.200 BABIP and 1.6 BB/9 despite career rate of 4/9. at any rate, if he could keep his walks down anywhere near that, even with regression he could be fantastic. as for closer material, he had an 11.2K/9 rate… people always love closer Ks
Some pitchers are getting little coverage, and I’d like to ask if anyone thinks they’re bullpen candidates.
Jeremy Accardo: Seems to be the best candidate for an internal solution to the closer question, but I know he’s in management’s doghouse. Why don’t they trade him instead of leaving him in the minors?
Scott Richmond: Pitched well in the minors after coming back from his injury. Obviously he won’t be a starter. How about long relief?
Shawn Hill: Deserves a chance to compete for the last starter spot, but no-one’s talking about him. (Hey, we’ve got the Canadians Richmond – Hill … Richmond Hill, get it? Okay, so it’s not that witty …)
Taylor Bucholz: Why did the Jays get this guy? Not to be a starter, that’s for sure.
by Defense Counts! on Nov 10, 2010 7:37 AM EST reply actions
give it up
give a real reason why not. enough statistics can and have been brought in to show that he can probably be a perfectly good relief pitcher.
Odds are, yes he can be a perfectly good relief pitcher if he can get his control problems under wraps when he is facing big league batters.
That being said, I don’t see any way he doesn’t pull some form of Shea Hillenbrand and cause enough of a Ruckus within the Jays to make it not worth it.
Eternal Hope
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
I have to think the fact he hasn’t ever really been given a shot suggests he won’t.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Sure. I should have clarified. I meant in the last 2 years. There’s really no reason why he hasn’t been given a shot since then, which suggests to me that they are done with him. Rightly or wrongly (and I happen to think that’s a shame), but that seems to be the way it is.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
for sure
it’s entirely possible that there is some reason why he hasn’t been successful in his (brief) stints in the Majors since, but it seems that his stuff is good enough, just based on 2007 and his past two years in AAA, to be at least an adequate reliever
really?
like his 5.14 K/9 ratio in AAA last year?
he’s been given several opportunities over the past three seasons and pretty much wet the bed each time. Can’t seem to break that 1:1 k to bb ratio in the majors lately.
down season K-rate wise
but 8.1/9IP last year and 6.6 career rate in the Majors. also a quite solid career BB rate (3.3/9IP) last season notwithstanding. no one is saying he’s going to be an elite closer, but I really think he could probably be a perfectly adequate, cheap reliever
2 reasons:
1.[Small sample size warning]I’ve attended a few games at the Rogers center when he pitched, Couldn’t be worse. He was just horrendous.
2. I think attitude problems are underrated here. I know there are no WAR/RAR/SHMAR stats for it, but I’d rather keep the Hillenbrands of the world away from my team, if only because I can’t cheer for Pro Athletes who’re constantly bitching, while making a lot of money (more than me, anyway)
one last point: Sometimes, I have an inexplicable bad/good gut feeling about someone, that goes against the (holy) stats. Don’t ask me how, but that gut feeling turned out to be right every time. So, as my gut feeling says: Not Accardo!, I’m obliged to follow it.
Festina Lente
Hill and Richmond
Have the best stuff of the 4 you listed IMO. Both coming off shoulder problems, though I seem to remember both of them having good minor league outings near the end of 2010.
I think Richmond has the makeup and for the job and the good heater with an ‘A’ curve. BUT…Can he close 2 days in a row…can he get loose in a hurry like those guys need to do sometimes.
All I know about Hill was a bit I read last year. From what I read, he too is not a soft tosser, more of a power pitcher. Other than that, I have no opinion.
I think it will be best for Accardo to get a fresh start with another club. He had the one good year and that wasn’t exactly yesterday. Not his fault, he got jerked around because they didn’t have to waive him, but he ran his mouth a little too much and burned some bridges. I could be all wrong about this and hope I am. If he could close like he did that one season, I will be the first one on my feet cheering.
And too bad they don’t have a pitcher named ‘Forest.’. That is a much nicer area then Richmond Hill.
by Infield Pete on Nov 14, 2010 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
Is Tom Hanks available? I saw Forest run, but I don’t know about his pitching…
by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 14, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
I agree, the Jays have enough good pitching to fill the bullpen next season, I think they need a ring leader for the starters, someone a little older and who can pitch 220+ innings. I like any move that has Bautista at 3B and Lind at 1st base, I read a something that was talking about O-Dog coming to Toronto to play second and Hill moving to 3rd, this is also a nice move, still keeping Lind at 1st base (see ya later Overpaid). I also like the Manny in Toronto idea, if for no other reason than to get some more fans out to the games. When you start looking at a line up that includes Manny and O – Dog, bringing in another starting pitcher, I think the Jays can contend for the wild card in the AL East. I also like making Hill more flexible, being able to play 3B and switching Bautista and Hill up at that position to see what fits best.
I would love to see this next year for the Jays:
LF: Fred Lewis
2B: Orlando Hudson
CF: Vernon Wells
DH: Manny being Manny
RF: Jose Bautista
1B: Adam Lind
3B: Aaron Hill
C: JP Arencibia
SS: Younel Escobar
That’s a good line up!
As for the bullpen, filling it with guys like Listch, Jansen, Carlson, Acardo, Camp, Hill, and Bucholz will work just fine, there is some talent there. The closing position is something not to be over looked, right now I like Wood but he is too old, the idea posted about bringing in Joaquin Benoit is fantastic although not that young either. The starting rotation, like I stated earlier needs a veteran, I still do not consider Marcum a veteran starting pitcher, and if Drabek is to break in to the MLB next season our rotation could look something like this:
Maybe a Carol Pavano?
S. Marcum
R. Romero
B. Morrow
B. Cecil/M. Rzepczynski
K. Drabek
No, for me the Fred Lewis Experience is over. He was perfect in his stop-gap role last year, but I’d far rather have Snider (whom you missed on your list) in LF.
i'd actually rather
have Encarnacion in the lineup than Hudson. much more power, and good career on-base skills (this year notwithstanding) – even with the loss of defense.
I agree with you on that one
@ Jays9293: I would like to know why Marcum can’t be considered somewhat a veteran. At what point (is there a certain amount of years or innings pitched) does one become a veteran? He’s definately the leader of the staff. Carl Pavano…pah-lease. We’ve got better and cheaper solutions internally.
Absolutely
@ Jays9293: I would like to know why Marcum can’t be considered somewhat a veteran. At what point (is there a certain amount of years or innings pitched) does one become a veteran? He’s definately the leader of the staff. Carl Pavano…pah-lease. We’ve got better and cheaper solutions internally.
Marcum took on some leadership last year. That can be overrated, think Kevin Milar.
He was 28 last season, not exactly green, age wise. The guy is an absolute bulldog out there. He’s a converted position player, and brings the aggression of a hitter to his pitching. He hardly walks anybody because he comes right at everybody. A perfect example for the rest who all have much better stuff, but fewer wins and higher ERA’s.
by Infield Pete on Nov 14, 2010 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
if you count his innings
he pitched about 4 and a half years worth of innings
you wouldn’t really call him a veteran. Of course, you also wouldn’t call him a newbie either
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Nov 21, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
I don't get Carl Pavano....
He’s had one good season in the last, I guess we could gamble that he have another one at 35 in the AL East, but I’d much rather not.
Hopefully we can land some arms.
Gregg at a cheaper price would be nice. I like him as a set up and Frasor as a 7th inning guy bridging to a closer. Papelbon being moved is not a long shot. They have Daniel Bard waiting and were listening to offers last year.
Avi: Should I call you Bullet? Tooth?
Bullet Tooth Tony: You can call me Susan if it makes you happy.
True but...
what makes it a long shot is that Boston’s asking price will likely be high, and the amount that Papelbon will get in arbitration might not make it worth any team going after him.
I agree he is over priced. But sooner or later this team is going to need a dependable stopper.
After the BJ Ryan mistake Im not sure if the Jays would want to spend alot of cash on the stopper or not.
Avi: Should I call you Bullet? Tooth?
Bullet Tooth Tony: You can call me Susan if it makes you happy.
While many predicted the Beej would break down when that contract was signed, the fact is that his first season was very successful and is worthy in comparison to Henke or Ward’s years. He broke down in the following year but recovered in 2008. While his stats look good in hindsight (2.95 ERA 32 SVs), many felt he was operating on reputation and smoke and mirrors.
Ryan was a mistake only because he broke down (which was slightly predictable given his delivery) and that the Jays weren’t really in a position to need an elite closer. Those late Riccardi teams had some talent in them but also sizable holes. An elite closer really didn’t help them much.
The 2011 Jays are a much different story. They seem to have a lot of young talented pitching with depth there to help out. There are some holes positionally but not too many that a trade or signing couldn’t fill. One of the holes is the closer and for the 2011-13 Jays, a top dollar closer might be worth having.
I dunno
Ryan was a mistake only because he broke down
Never give a pitcher more than a 3 year deal, with club options after. Richardi gave a 5 year deal to AJ Burnett, a million dollar arm with a 10 cent brain. The guy spent a lot of his first 2 years on the DL. He finally had his career year when his walk out clause was going to open up Then NY gave him 5 more at bigger money. . How is that working out for the Yankee’s?
Ryan was worse, a guy with a delivery looking for an injury, who had done nothing, then had one monster year as a stopper. When he came back after the Tommy John, he was showing the reddass like a 5 year old cause they wouldn’t let him close with his 84 mph fastball.
It’s damn near surreal to look back in wonder at all the incredible fuckups JP managed to rack up while he was here.
by Infield Pete on Nov 14, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
he had "done nothing"?
please look at statistics. in the 8 seasons before he came to Toronto he had a 141 ERA+ in 470 games. that’s very, very good. he walked too many guys (4.3 BB/9IP) but made up for it with a crazy K rate (almost 11/9IP). it wasn’t a good deal for the reasons outlined above (relievers being inconsistent) but not because his “delivery [was] looking for an injury” because you’re not an athletic trainer working with him every day. throwing a baseball with significant velocity is a delivery looking for an injury.
also, swearing really doesn’t help your argument. just sayin’.
I want to say before Ryan signed with the Jays
he had never been on the disabled list
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
yup
and his first and third years in Toronto (injuries in 2007, ineffectiveness/TJ tenderness/whatever the reason in 2009) were both excellent. 2006 he was actually lights-out amazing – .444 OPS against, 10.7 K/9 IP to 2.5 BB/9IP, 0.85 WHIP, 335 ERA+ in 72.1 IP. 2008 he was just very good – .650 OPS against, 9K/9 to 4.3 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP, 144 ERA+ in 58 IP (some luck in both seasons, but still)
not that giving him a big 5-year deal was a great idea
but that’s because of the nature of the closer position more than anything specific to Ryan
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
definitely
I’m against big deals to relievers in general, but BJ’s track record until then was very good, the deal just didn’t work out in the end
oops, my stats were wrong actually
127 ERA+, 11K/9 to 4.6 K/9 (I think I included his ridiculously awesome 2006 in the data by accident)
Never give a pitcher more than a 3 year deal
Unfortunately, the elite pitchers are in the driver’s seat and the next level below them have nearly as much control. The Jays can say that, but there’s a very good chance that there is a team out there who will give an elite pitcher that 4th, 5th, or even 6th year. It especially hurts the Jays that two of the teams most likely to give that sort of contract play in their division.
for sure
basically, it was a bad deal for two reasons: the Jays weren’t in a position where an elite reliever filled a particularly large need on their team, and they spent a lot of money on a position where wild fluctuations in stats and effectiveness is very common. the problem really wasn’t BJ Ryan in and of himself.
ideally
I’d love to see the Jays develop Zach Stewart to become the closer, he did it in the past and many experts consider him to end up in that role long term.
Why not groom him now like the Red Sox have done with Bard? Jays bring in a closer for the next 2-3 years and let Stewart start out in a set up role in the bullpen until he’s ready to take over.
There’s more then enough rotation depth to make up for the loss of Stewart to the ’pen
but if Stewart projects as a good MLB pitcher
i.e. a number 2, 3 or 4 starter, then why move him to the pen? A good starter is far more valuable and difficult to find than a good reliever, whether he’s actually playing for you or used as trade bait to acquire something you need. Don’t just move a top prospect to closer because the spot is open. I’m sure the Jays have other guys they can move to the reliever role or groom to be a closer that don’t have Stewart’s upside in the rotation
I don't disagree (in general)
however the Jays have others that can slot in as the 2-3-4 starter, considering Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek as their starting 5 in 2011 they still have Zep, Richmond, Litsch, Hill and Mills that could start in 2011 if there were injuries. Deck Maguire, Asher Woj and Aaron Sanchez all project out as 2,3,4 starters as well. There’s a lot of picthing depth in the system (top to bottom). So if Stewart projects as a high-end closer or mid-range starter I’d rather take my chances on him as the high end closer as there are plenty of other options that can develop into the mid-range starter.
or we could trade him
and, being a starter, his value would be a lot higher
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Nov 21, 2010 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
the problem is
even though we have good starter depth, a pretty good starter is still loads more valuable than an elite reliever because of many reasons, one of which being that failed starters are often converted in relievers – Purcey was a failed starter (no control) but he was excellent in relief last year. Stewart would probably be a fantastic reliever (his minors relief numbers are pretty ridiculous – sub-2 ERA both seasons he spent time as a reliever) but the question is: where is he more valuable? and the answer is probably a starter
I See Your Point
I’d love to see the Jays develop Zach Stewart to become the closer
But I’d rather convert another power pitcher with only 2 plus pitches. There is a reason the Jays converted Stewart, just like they converted Cecil to starting. They have more than 2 plus pitches. Good starters give you 200 innings. Though important, closers give you 60, maybe 70. And they can’t save a game in 1 inning unless the starter gives you a minimum of 6 quality innings, most times out.
Purcey was given a look near the end of last year. Henke was a starter with 2 outstanding pitches that the Rangers couldn’t wait to get dump. Purcey’s heater is consistently 97mph with good movement. If he burns it down the middle it will move plenty enough. He really doesn’t have to spot it like he had to do when starting. He’s got a tight late slider that is an A pitch as well. Those 2 pitches are all he has. But that’s all he needs to close.
by Infield Pete on Nov 14, 2010 1:52 AM EST up reply actions
This and That
I suspect Frasor takes arbitration. His wife is from Toronto. He lives here year round. That’s not all bad, though I would prefer the extra picks. He can’t close, but he is a better than average setup guy. Being an older vet is valuable as well.
Bell is interesting, but not a bonafide flame thrower. Broxton has a better arm and upside, but I’m not sure he has a closer mentality. Inconsistent, and has always had trouble staying in shape. The guy weighs 300 lbs! I pass on Broxton. I think about Bell.
If he isn’t making the rotation this year, I think hard about putting Zach Stewart in the closer spot and let him run with it, but only as my last option. He has electric stuff, and was always a stopper until the Jays started converting him into a starter.
In the best of all worlds, Purcey steps up and grabs the job, but that is a longshot. He has the dominant 2 pitches to get it done, if he can spot his heater. The guy hits the high 90’s on the jugs.
More On Closers
This is outside the box. because of the arms on the cusp of making the rotation, Stewart, Drabek, Zep, all those guys, and more.
If in the spring we are hip deep in starters ready to go, put Marcum in the closer spot.
Let’s face it, he is the oldest guy with the least stuff on this staff. .
Hear me out. He sure has the bulldog mentality. He may be a soft tosser, but so were Greg Maddox , Jimmy Key, and Tommy John. I would not be surprised if his velocity is back to the low 90’s where it was before the Tommy John. That usually happens in the second year for the guys who come back early.
The guy has pinpoint control. He can spot 4 pitches anywhere he wants, anytime. He can carve you up and punch you out, or pitch to contact for a ground ball. I project him as a righthanded Scott Downs, with 4 pitches instead of 2, younger, and with better control. Good enough for me.
Marcum has a compete level that is off the charts. I would not be surprised if he relished the challenge, especially if you structure a deal similar to what Romero got, but for fewer bucks. He hinted last season that he wanted that. It’s a win win AA. Lock the guy up on a reasonable deal.
Marcum as a starter
has so much more value than as a reliever that it’s not even close. Besides, starters with only one or two plus pitches are often turned into relievers, not ones with 3 or 4, because you really only need one or two pitches to succeed for an inning or less at a time (see Rivera, Mariano – he throws 95 percent cutters). I don’t think they should re-convert Stewart into a reliever either, because his value is higher as a starter, but at least he has the ridiculous relief numbers to back himself up. if you don’t want Marcum starting (which I don’t understand in the first place) trade him.
Marcum
will be traded before the 2012 season all star break, because in spring training there will be several electric arms better than his, younger than his, more contractually controlled than his, ready to start….like Stewart or McGuire or Sanchez , or Jenkins, that list goes on and on and on.
If he gets hurt this season, he could lose his job while he is out, and end up in the pen anyway, or traded when healthy. If this year AA trades a starting arm to improve for a push after 2011, it will be Marcum.
You are setting up a straw man with this 2 pitch thing. You need 2 overpowering pitches to relieve. If you don’t have them, but have 3 or 4 that you can change speeds on and spot wherever you want, you can be just as successful. If Marcum tried to start OR relieve with only his 2 best pitches, he would be tattooed. Think Josh Towers.
You want to keep him, move him to the pen as soon as both Drabek and another horse are ready to go.There, he can be a big piece of the puzzle, fill a need.
Otherwise, he will end up as a very useful but dispensable arm to be traded so as to address other needs. Scott Downs was a starter when the Jays got him. Marcum has the same potential, and what is wrong with that?
by Infield Pete on Nov 12, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
if you're convinced there's no place for Marcum in the future rotation, trading him as a #2 starter
is a much better idea than trying to convert him into a reliever. Giving him a Romero-type deal only to stick him in the bullpen is a still more terrible idea.
Hear me out. He sure has the bulldog mentality. He may be a soft tosser, but so were Greg Maddox (sic) , Jimmy Key, and Tommy John
Not closers.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
maybe he’ll get hurt. maybe someone else will, and we’ll need a very good pitcher to replace him in Marcum. besides, Josh Towers had zero overpowering pitches. he had good control on some middling stuff. please don’t compare the two. and no one said there is no reason to trade him – if the package is right, go for it
Why Not?
I was comparing velocity, and contrasting number and quality of pitches. Marcum has 4, that he can spot for a strike anytime he wants.
Concerning this, I was reading one of Keith Law’s online chats he does for ESPN. He had a question about what the Jays rotation will be like in the near future. He said, that if they all remain healthy, the quality of a rotation of Drabek, Morrow, Romero, Stewart, and Cecil, in that order, would be insane. And I’m not even thinking about electric arms farther down in the system.
I don’t see Marcum on that list. He might be there if somebody else gets hurt. The man certainly can throw strikes. He wouldn’t be the first good closer who can’t hit 90mph, but spots the ball wherever he wants it, and has more than 2 pitches so he can get away with the low velocity.
Otherwise, I trade him. Probably before the 2013 season, maybe this year if I have another arm ready, like Zep. Zep is tearing it up right now in the Arizona Fall League.
by Infield Pete on Nov 14, 2010 2:14 AM EST up reply actions
hes a free agent after 2012
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Nov 21, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Jays will try to sign Marcum to a medium or long term deal
during this offseason or in-season 2011
and marcum>>>>zep
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Nov 21, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
Marcum is solid
hes relieable and mature. you know what ur gonna get. this team needs that with so much youth unproven and inexperience
youuu cant spell
I'll take Putz or Rauch
Both have been effective before and can be effective again.
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