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Bill James 2011 Projections for TO's Top Four Starting Pitchers

I get annoyed with Bill James' projections sometimes.  Once in a while he's far seeing and most of the time it seems to me he just splits the difference.  Fangraphs have added 2011 projections to their player pages.

I'm thinking that one would take these "projections" with a major grain of salt.

Rotation 2011 Projections

Morrow 9.61K/9 4.78BB/9 ERA 3.79 FiP 3.83 Record of 9-9 in 162 innings

Marcum 7.45K/9 2.45BB/9 ERA 3.85 FiP 4.20 Record of 12-11 in 200+ innings

Cecil 7.12K/9 3.20BB/9 ERA 4.12 Fip 3.97 Record of 9-11 in 177 innings

Romero 7.44K/9 3.85BB/9 ERA 4.31 Fip 4.07 Record of 12-12 in 213 innings


Based on the "projections", he's figuring that the Jays starting pitchers are going to regress especially in terms of walks and record (while Morrow drops over a K/9 compared to 2010.)  The remaining numbers stay fairly static.

Only pitcher to "improve" ERA wise will be Morrow because largely as a counter reaction to the insane BABIP he had this year.

Considering the strides that all 3 of the 4 have made in their BB/9 the past couple of years (Marcum doesn't count as he was out in 2009), I'd almost like to say James is full of crap.  Not going to say much about records as it's more of a pitcher's luck than anything.

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