A look at the Halladay Trade, One Year Later

It might be a slow news day today (edit: nevermind, I publish this and see they resigned EE), but one year ago, there was a lot to talk about.  It's hard to believe, but it has been one year since the Jays officially parted ways with Roy Halladay.  I think most of us were probably relieved for it to be over.  It was difficult time, knowing that one of the top Blue Jaysof all time was on his way out, and I think we were all tired of the endless speculation and swirling rumours.  I kind of like reading through the old threads (especially the comments) so I've linked a bunch of the relevant ones here.  There's lots of them to read through if you want. 

For a little trip down memory lane, the rumours really started to pick up on December 14.  The first rumour, detailed here, had the Jays, Phillies and Marinersas part of a three way deal.  It was suspected that Phillipe Aumont and Dominic Brown were coming to Toronto in return for Halladay.

A few hours later, it was suggested that J.A. Happ, Domonic Brownand Joe Blantonwere part of the deal, and that Aumont was not.  Also, Travis D'Arnaud and Micheal Taylor 'might be' involved, however Kyle Drabek'likely isn't part of the deal.'

And by 2AM on December 15, Tom had it hammered out here.  Halladay and $6M for Micheal Taylor, Travis D'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek.  By the end of the day on December 15, we knew that Micheal Taylor was being flipped for Brett Wallace, and I don't think many of us liked the deal.

Of course, as we all know, Brett Wallace was traded to Houston on July 29, with toolsy centrefielder, Anthony Gose coming to the Jays in return.  That thread is here.

Obviousy, it's too early to even begin evaluating who won this set of trades, but lets take a quick look at everybody's numbers, shall we? 

We all know the year Halladay had for the Phillies, leading them to a National League Championship Series.  Coming off of one of his top 3 seasons with the Jays, Halladay continued putting up stellar numbers for the Phillies.  He threw the 2nd highest IP of his career, third year with 20+ wins, and matched or beat his career high's in K's and BB's.  He accumulated 6.6 fWAR, good for the 5th highest total of his career.

Highlights of the season for Halladay?  He threw the 20th perfect game in MLB history on May 29, 2010 and in his first post-season start, he no-hit the Reds.  Highlights from the games are here and here.  Not often I jump off the couch cheering for a team that isn't the Jays, but I did that day.  Bittersweet though, wasn't it?  Becoming the 5th pitcher to win Cy Young awards in both leagues was probably a highlight too, joining Gaylord Perry, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez there.

Travis D'Arnaud had a bit of a rough year playing at High A Dunedin as he was fighting with injuries for most of the second half.  He had a very good first half though, and was selected to play in the Florida State League All-Star Game.  He finished the year with a .259/.315/.411 in 71 games.  Not a bad year for a 21 year old catcher in a pitchers league.  I expect he'll move up to AA next year, and hopefully he can stay healthy and show us what he can do in a full season.

Kyle Drabek pitched most of the year for AA New Hampshire and had a fantastic year, cementing his position as the Jays number 1 prospect and making a formidable 1-2 punch with Zack Stewart.  He lead New Hamshire to the playoffs, where he pitched a decent game, in his only game, but still took the loss.  A few days later he was called up to the bigs, where he got his first taste of MLB hitters with 3 starts.   To me, it looked like he had pretty good stuff. 

Highlights of the year for Drabek?  He was named to the Eastern League All-Star team and won the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year (Brad Arnsberg won the same award in 1985).  Shaky video of the no hitter finish here.

Michael Taylor played the majority of the season at AAA for the Sacremento Rivercats (a PCL team, so take the numbers with a grain of salt).  He had a decent, but not great year.  He had about the worst numbers of his minor league career, so maybe flipping him was a good move?  He's still a top 10 prospect for the A's, but I'm sure they'd like to see improved production from him going forward.  He turns 25 in a couple of days, so it will be interesting to see if he makes the A's out of spring training next year.  After a quick look, I don't think he was a top 10 player in any of the stats, and his OPS was way down the list (and behind Las Vegas players, Jarret Hoffpauir, Chris Lubanski and JP Arencibia).

Brett Wallace was dubbed the 1st baseman of the future during the spring, and as such, most Jays fans seemed pretty outraged when he was flipped midway through the season.  He spent the first half of the season at AAA Las Vegas, and while his numbers did look a lot better than Taylor's, he wasn't blowing the league away with his production.  He finished the year playing for the Houston Astro's and got off to a pretty rough start.  It sounds like he'll be a decent player, but not a real top of the league kind of guy.

Anthony Gose finishes off this list.  He was another Philadelphia prospect that was traded to the Astro's as part of the Roy Oswalt package, and then flipped to the Jays for Brett Wallace.  It's hard to get a real reading on players still in the low minors, but he had a good season splitting time for Dunedin and Clearwater in A+.  The numbers don't jump out, but he is younger for the level, at only 20. 

Here's a summary of everyone's 2010 stats.

Roy Halladay:

MLB Philadelphia:  250.2 IP, 219K (7.86/9), 30BB (1.08/9), 24HR, 2.44 ERA, 3.01FIP, 33GS, 21W-10L

Kyle Drabek:

AA NH:  162IP, 132K (7.33/9), 68BB (3.78/9), 12 HR, 2.94 ERA, 27GS, 14W-9L.

MLB:  17IP, 12K (6.35/0), 5BB (2.65/9), 2HR, 4.76 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 3GS, 0W-3L.

Travis D'Arnaud:

A+ Dunedin:  292PA, .259/.315/.411.  68H, 6HR, 38RBI, 3SB

Michael Taylor:

A Desert Dogs:  128 PA, .278/.391/.407.  30H, 2HR, 15RBI, 6SB

AAA Sacremento:  524 PA, .272/.348/.392.  226H, 6HR, 78RBI, 16SB

Brett Wallace:

AAA Las Vegas:  423 PA, .301/.359/.509.  116H, 18HR, 61RBI, 1SB

MLB Houston:  159 PA, .222/.296/.319.  32H, 2HR, 13RBI, 0SB.

Anthony Gose:

A+ Dunedin/Clearwater:  574PA, .262/.332/.393.  134H, 7HR, 27RBI, 45SB.

So, Banterer's, 1 year later, how do you feel about the Halladay trade, and the sucession of moves that followed?  Do you think we got enough value for Halladay?  Can the three players that we have today, eventually make up 7.0+ fWAR a season?  I think the key will be Anthony Gose.  I think Drabek is most likely going to end up a 3-4WAR pitcher in general, maybe with a few years about 4WAR.  D'Arnaud shoud make the Jays in a few years and is hopefully a 2WAR player.  Gose might never sniff the big leagues, but if he does make it, I think he makes the deal a win for the Jays (if that's possible when trading away the heart of your franchise).