Greinke
by lambo on Dec 17, 2010 9:59 AM EST
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Here is a great piece on Zack Greinke by Joe Posnanski, who has interviewed him many times over his career. Posnanski talks about Grienke's competitiveness and his desire for pressure situations, but on the flip side, he has no clue what's going on inside his head.
After reading this, is Greinke a good fit for the Jays and his competitiveness is great for the AL East or is his mental issues too much risk to give a long term contract?
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I think with that talent and the caveat of saying "at the right price"
Means of course he’d be a great fit. Especially because I feel like by definition, “the right price” is whatever you value him to be at, so unless anyone thinks he’s a negative value he’ll always have a right price.
Agreed.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 17, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
for some reason that article made me like Greinkie a lot
by pho king awesome on Dec 17, 2010 10:19 AM EST reply actions
I don't see how anyone could vote No
If you are worried about his mental makeup, that would be a factor in your price.
However, I don’t think the Jays will get him because the Royals will be asking for too much. For me, I’d rather keep Snider and Drabek because their careers are better positioned for the Jays run in the next few years.
you're not going to trade for him
if you don’t think you can sign him to a long term contract and his mental issues poses risk for him to suceed over 5-7 years, especially when the Jays are currently rebuilding and out of contention in September.
well
Zach switched agents today and has officially asked for a trade so one would think that would hurt KC’s bargaining position somewhat. Though if their asking price was more then Snider and Drabek I’m not sure I’d still want the Jays to pay the price to get him
if the price drops enough to Drabke +, i would do that in an instants (with an extension in mind)
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Dec 17, 2010 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
The beautiful thing about the Marcum/Lawrie trade, is that the Brewer’s are now lacking a top prospect to land Greinke. Less competition means Greinke’s trade value is less. With the Yankees and Red Sox on the no-trade list, his value is even less. I hope AA stands firm with his offer. When the trade rumors started, I was all for Greinke and giving up a lot for him, but now that I have calculated the picture, there is no way Greinke is worth Snider and Drabek, when you start factoring in controllability and dollar figures.
Call me crazy but I wouldn't be surprised if Lawrie/Stewart/Gose gets it done.
So no Drabek and no Moonraker.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 18, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
if there's no (good) extension
I don’t think I’d do that. even if Gose never makes the Majors, and Lawrie tops out at like 3.5 WAR, that’s still a decade of 6-ish WAR from Zach and Brett compared to 2 expensive years of 5 WAR Greinke
It would be Greinke's WAR + Lawrie's replacement's WAR + Stewart's replacement's WAR vs. Lawrie's WAR + Stewart's WAR.
Does that make sense…
Also, they may see Stewart as a reliever (expendable) and Lawrie as being somewhat expendable with the presence of Hill, Hech, Yunel, JBau, Snider (if they see Lawrie as a corner outfielder).
Lawrie was the perfect acquisition for a huge trade like this.
However, you have to ask yourself if Greinke is that much better than Marcum.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 18, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
You need to add Greinke's replacement's WAR on the right-hand side of the equation.
The Jays have an effectively infinite supply of replacement pitching, so Greinke’s replacement is roughly equal to Stewart’s replacement and they cancel out. The equation simplifies down to:
Greinke’s WAR + Lawrie’s replacement’s WAR vs. Lawrie’s WAR + Stewart’s WAR
Using benk’s numbers, and assuming that Lawrie’s replacement is a 2 WAR player, we have 7 WAR vs. 6 WAR, which (ignoring money) only makes sense if the Jays plan to win with Greinke and don’t think Lawrie + Stewart have a combined potential of >6 WAR.
right
I basically held replacements constant. and ignoring money would be leaving out a huge part of the deal
True, but the way the Jays operate with an annual net income of $0, money doesn’t have to be considered during the first-order evaluation (i.e. the “good baseball decision” phase). My argument is that a Greinke for Lawrie + Stewart trade doesn’t clearly pass the first-order evaluation, let alone the second-order evaluation (i.e. the “good business decision” phase, which considers money).
Not any more.
Dealt to Brew Crew for a lesser package.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 19, 2010 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
what Royals should have gotten
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Dec 19, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t really call it a lesser package. Escobar is a pretty big name. I am just glad we were able to plunk Lawrie from the Brewers before he was part of the package. The Brewers gave away their system for these trades and even needed some money. I don’t think it is a good thing if they needed money to pull this deal off, doesn’t say much for the longterm sustainability of keeping their team together.
you are misreading the money thing
the $2 million was essentially the Royals paying for Milwaukee to exercise Betancourt’s 2012 buyout (the Brewers now have a $6 million club option for Yuniesky for 2012) because Betancourt is terrible and there’s really no way Milwaukee doesn’t use the buyout.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Apparently the Royals didn’t need a top prospect :)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 19, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
well to be fair
Escobar and Cain were top prospects before reaching the majors
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Dec 19, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
TSN says he's gone to the Brewers.
On to the next rumour.
I agree.
Just Dayton Moore being Dayton Moore.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 19, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Aight
Just Dayton Moore being Dayton Moore.
That haul is pretty weak for 2 years of Greinke.
Jeffress is a reliever, Odorizzi has done nothing above low-A ball, and I’’m not convinced either of Cain and Escobar will ever hit. Yes, I know Cain hit alright in his 150 AB Major League stint, but he has anemic power.
If that average drops, then he’s screwed.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
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