Found Nothing, Reporting Same: Shaun Marcum Trade
by Tom Dakers on Dec 6, 2010 11:33 AM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintNo new news on the Shaun Marcum trade. It sounds like they won't announce anything until this afternoon at the earliest, so since I've said that, the announcement will probably come before I finish this post.
Anyway, if the trade is straight Marcum for Brett Lawrie, I'm good with it. Lawrie is a terrific prospect and to get one of those you are going to have to give up something good. Marcum is really good pitcher, I like watching him, but no one is untouchable. A few of the rumors:
- One is that the Jays tried to sign Marcum to an extension beyond arbitration years, buying out his first couple of free agent years and Marcum said 'no', that he wanted to play closer to home. If that's the case, Alex may have decided to move him now, when his value would be at its highest.
- That Lawrie will be flipped to the Royals for Zack Greinke. Man I hope not. That would make this a trade of Marcum for Greinke. Greinke's likely the better pitcher of the two, but he will make at least $10 million more this coming season and several million more in 2012. I don't think the difference between the two pitchers is worth that much money. If that's it, I would rather keep Marcum and use the money to buy a third baseman and DH/1B.
- It is funny reading the tweets from fans of both team, Jays fans think it is terrible that we gave up a number 1 starter for a 20 year old AA players. Brewers fans think it is terrible they gave away their number 1 prospect for a number 3 (or 4) starter. I figure any trade that pisses off fans of both teams must be good. For Jays fans I'd say, you keep telling us you want 'high ceiling' players, but you don't want to give anything up to get them. . For Brewer fans, you are getting a really good pitcher and a great guy, you will love him.
I'm hoping the announcement will come sometime today, if nothing else just to ease our minds. But I'm going Christmas shopping. Yeah, I know, it is early yet, but my wife is making me. I can't get interested in shopping until half way through the month.
The post title is from a favorite MASH episode. They are lost and go off looking in different directions, Frank comes back and says 'Found nothing, reporting same' and Potter says 'A simple crapped out will do'. Maybe you had to be there,
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If Marcum wasn’t up for an extension (which makes perfect sense), this deal is even better. Marcum was likely my favourite pitcher in the Jays rotation, but he’s at the top of his value and moving him for a guy that’s being considered a monster bat on the way up is what the Jays need to do.
As for Greinke, I don’t like the idea of the ‘cupboards bare’ requirement to pick him up, especially with his price tag. While he’d be nice to acquire, I can’t imagine that he’ll do much better than, say, Marcum did last year in the AL East. The Jays are more than one big pitcher away from competing, and I don’t agree with sending out premium prospects out yet to land a big name like Greinke.
..a monster bat???
Lawrie had 8 HRs and 63 RBIs in 554 ABs in AA. That’s not a line that reads “Monster Bat” to me. He hit a decent .285 and has nice speed with 30 SBs, but not a monster bat.
Compare JP Arencibia’s numbers when he played AA (at 22); JP had a .282 BA with 14 HRs and 43 RBIs in only 262 ABs (292 less ABs than Lawrie).
by Marcos Montenegro on Dec 6, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Lawrie was 20
and had lots of doubles (36) and triples (16). He’s definitely got middle of the order potential as a hitter
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Thats Mr.Monster Bat
How about we compare Lawrie’s numbers in AA when he’s 22 to JP’s in two years when Lawrie is 22 ? For a 20 year old in AA those are monster numbers and I for one am very excited, AA did a great job once again! Man he’s spoiling us Jays fans.
How old was Snidner when he played AA ball and how many dingers did he hit?
"Without a catcher we´ll have a lot of passed balls!" Casey Stengel
by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 6, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
great question
Snider also spent most of his age 20 season in AA (with cameos in AAA and the majors) – he had 17 homers in substantially fewer plate appearances, but overall Lawrie hit extra base hits at a higher rate (1 per 10 plate appearances) than Snider (1 per 11). Obviously there’s a difference in body type and it’s very fair to say that all indications are that Lawrie’s home run power is still developing.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I can agree that his power is still developing, but no monster bat
Bryce Harper, at 17, was a legit monster bat. Did you see his bp at the National’s stadium?
I wonder what his numbers will be when he gets to 20, if he’s still in AA.
by Marcos Montenegro on Dec 6, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
worrying about whether his bat is "monster" is silly and subjective
Bryce Harper hasn’t even had a professional at bat so that’s not an apposite comparision.
Lawrie hasn’t hit a ton of home runs yet, but he has hit a ton of extra base hits (including 16 triples) and those tend to turn into long balls as a player gets further into his 20s. There’s a pretty clear scouting consensus that Lawrie has middle-of-the-order potential as a hitter. of course, whether he reaches that potential is still up in the air, but that would be true if he had hit 30 dingers this season.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
the only thing I worry about
is his defense.
by Marcos Montenegro on Dec 6, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Still for a 17/18 year old
OPSing over 1.000 in the AFL is something.
no doubt
Harper is unreal as a prospect. But acquiring someone like that on the trade market is essentially impossible at any price (even setting aside that he’s not eligible to be dealt) and doesn’t really have anything to do with whether Lawrie is a good return for Marcum.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=snider001tra
23 homers at three levels of the minors, 31 2B, 0 3B + 2 HR and 6 2B on the Jays.
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Dec 6, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Lawrie projects as a serious power threat. 8HRs at age 20 is some real power, and as he fills out, you’ll see those numbers go up. He’s a good contact hitter with speed and plate discipline, with emerging power.
8 HRs even at 20 isn't some real power, but I'm not concerned by that.
Every report has indicated that he has AT LEAST plus raw power.
Like others said, the doubles and triples show you what Lawrie’s capable of.
He should eventually be a 25+ home run hitter.
My main concern with Lawrie is that he stays open even after he strides.
I’m wondering if that has caused him/will cause him issues with pitches on the outer half.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 6, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
to me it's the 16 trips and 36 doubles that indicate the power more than the 8 dingers
but, yeah.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Yeah I didn't get that
The two main stats that people use to gauge a player’s speed are typically SB and 3B. He had exceptional numbers in one and good/great numbers in the other. What’s weird is that I was going over how BA evaluated the trade and they said he only has average speed and he’s not expected to replicate his SB numbers going forward, but then they didn’t mention his 3Bs.
That's the "north of the border" discount
Seems to happen quite often with Blue Jays talent.
by transmogrifier on Dec 6, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
I see that a lot with BA.
For example, Ryan Kalish steals a ton of bases and looks pretty fast.
Yet, BA always says he has solid-average speed.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 6, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
nice pedigree too apparently..
google his sister Danielle, I hope the Lawries had lots of kids…
Yeah, Danielle's hawt.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 6, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Why are you using batting average and RBIs?
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 6, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
And you're completely disregarding scouting.
Lawrie is known to have plus-to-plus-plus raw power.
Also was 2 years out of HS in the upper minors.
Big in-game power is likely not going to be apparent.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 6, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
I like the trade for getting a very good prospect for for a guy who his value possibly won’t be any hiigher. AA is doing a great job of building this team methoodically and not taking short cuts. However, if we can get the ’09 Cy winner with a decent contract for the next couple years, I think AA should do it. The price does have too be right though and no where near the asking price of Drabek and Snider. If we could get him for Stewart/Drabek and few mid tier prospects, it will be cheaper in the long run trying to bid on an ace in FA market in a few years, if we go that route.
Marcum for Greinke, no thanks
I agree, outside that one outlier year of Greinke’s who’s to say that he is such an upgrade over Marcum that emptying the cupboards is the best move Alex has to make? The idea of getting Greinke is just such a Bob McGowan idea. He thinks the Jays are one piece away from contending and that any one who is considered a piece is what the Jays will need to contend in the East.
Do the Jays simply have a question in the rotation that can be answered with a #1 pitcher? No
Will Lind reverts to 2009 form, he can play an adequate 1st base; will Hill revert to his 2009 form; will Bautista be a good third baseman considering his D is rated very poorly there and hasn’t played a full season there before, will he repeat; the Bullpen; you get the idea, this could go on and on.
I think it’s great that we moved Marcum and that we got a solid return for him, but the idea that we should sell the farm because were one ace pitcher away just seems foolish. I for one also can’t wait to see Marcum destroy the NL and will eagerly await his pitching matchup with Doc.
Marcum a Grump?
I have been reading all over the net (granted in fan reactions not anyone in main stream or alternative media) that Marcum became disenchanted and difficult near the end of last year… Any truth to that? Has anyone heard the same.
I feel very tepid to the thought of essentially trading the cheaper Marcum + whatever we would have to add for ZG.
Somebody tell that that I should still be in love with AA.
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Of Course
The Greinke rumours are just that, rumours. Did anyone have a whiff of the Marcum trade before it happened? Or Villanueva?
If AA traded the farm for Greinke, I’d be very leery about the deal, but up to now, I haven’t seen Anthopolous make a move that I didn’t understand the risk against the potential return.
The fact that these rumours of Marcum suddenly being a 'clubhouse cancer' or whatever have only started appearing after the trade tells me that it's nothing but a lot of hot air.
Before last night his status of clubhouse leader and overall good guy to have around had rarely been challenged. Being called outright unpleasant to have in the clubhouse is something I had never once seen claimed. The entire thing screams to me that people are trying to disparage Marcum to make the trade look better for the jays. That’s really not cool with me, he seemed like a perfectly good guy.
However, that's not to say that the scenario where he was offered an extension and refused never happened.
If it did the trade makes even more sense than before, as one year of Marcum would never land a top prospect like Lawrie. I don’t think we have anything evidence that outright suggests it did though either.
certainly he seemed to have plenty of friends on the team
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I don’t think his teammates would have posted on twitter the well wishes and compliments if he was.
Odds are they would have just kept silent on the issue unless asked.
Never Explain. Your friends do not need it and your enemies will not believe it anyway - Elbert Hubbard
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
People on another site wanted to trade Marcum for prospects last season
I disagreed, good pitching is key in AL East and he is a cheap and solid starter who was under team control for a couple of more years. Marcum also seemed to be a good mentor for the staff last season. That said it seems Marcum wanted to be closer to home in the midwest and is thrilled with this trade. Given that his value might never be higher – and could potentially be much worse with another injury – then AA did a great job with this deal. Makes me wish we still had Shawn Hill though, can never have enough good starters and he was solid down the stretch.
Lawrie has serious speed and good pop but also serious question marks on defence. Wonder if he will end up being future 3B and Hill stays where he is instead of Hill moving to third as some have suggested? Lawrie at soon-to-be 21 still has time to work on his defence though.
Ya'll wouldn't take esentially a Marcum for Grienke trade?
Really? Is it really about the money?
Obviously old man Rogers has boatloads of it if he’s buying every Canadian Sports team and there is no salary cap.
I’d take that in a heartbeat.
by craig in calgary on Dec 6, 2010 12:36 PM EST reply actions
This
Assuming it would be possible to trade Lawrie straight up for Grienke, I don’t care how much money he is going to make, you are stupid not to make that trade.
Greinke is a bona-fide number 1 and trading if I was an MLB GM and someone came to me and essentially offered my Marcum for Greinke straight up I wouldn’t even have to think about it. Remember Rogers has said they would be willing to open their coffers for the right players, Greinke is one of those players.
the problem, though
is if Grienke is so much better than Marcum, it’s unlikely that the Royals would trade Grienke for the exact same return that Marcum garnered. they are going to want more. That complicates things from the Jays’ perspective because, while there’s definitely an argument that Grienke is an upgrade over Marcum, it’s unlikely that he is enough of an upgrade to warrant throwing a ton else into the deal, particularly given the difference in cost.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
the rub...
appropriately captured.
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by Humble Dragons on Dec 6, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
I can understand your hesitation, but who knows why they are so eager to trade him. Maybe he has told Brewers management that he simply has no interest in being there anymore? Perhaps he doesn’t see a contending future for him in Milwuakee and wants a change to play for a contender.
Maybe Brewers management thinks he has an attitude problem and needs to dump him from the locker room?
Either way there is no denying the fact that Greinke is young, and has a higher ceiling talent wise than Marcum does, sure Marcum is a great pitcher, but he is more of a true number 2 starter, whereas Greinke has proven that he can be a true number 1. As far as I am concerned you have to take a deal like that if it’s on the table.
Indeed. Would Grienke help? Without a doubt. Is Grienke the difference between contending and not? No. You only deal heavily from the farm when you’re expecting to make a legitimate run, and I don’t see the Jays being there.
Mind you, when you’re going to make a legitimate run, you don’t try and protect prospects and go half heartedly. For example, the Phillies could have had Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay in 2009 by emptying the farm. They went cheaper with Lee, lost the World Series around him. They let Lee walk and spent a chunk of the farm for Halladay. Mid-season, they dealt the last of the prospects they were hording for Oswalt. Imagine if they’d just paid up in the summer of 2009? Same prospects gone, Halladay/Lee back to back for the playoffs.
I think Marcum's age is really a non-issue
Im not upset with the trade, but a couple of B prospects would have been nice too.
Marcum isn’t going to lose his stuff anytime soon. he doesnt throw hard and doesnt need to throw hard. Control pitches age much better than power guys. Marcum will be very effective into his late 30s i imagine.
Onions Baby Onions
Out on Grienke, In on Lawrie
We dont need Grrienke, there are so many high ceiling pitching prospects in our system just wait for the ones that are gunna turn out to turn out.
And Lawrie is a steal, if he can be converted to play 3rd then he is of way more value. and the team looks to have a stronger core going forward for many years of contention.
I don’t understand how any team in the MLB can say “we don’t need Greinke”, yes we have a lot of high ceiling pitching prospects, but Greinke is already a proven number 1 starter, and a lot of those high ceiling prospects we have might never even pitch in the majors.
Taking in a bona-fide number 1 allows the Jays to turn some of those high ceiling prospects into other needs the team has, and I don’t see how any smart GM could turn down a trade that is essentially Marcum for Greinke. Trading an above average pitcher for a true number one is a very easy decision.
But you are not going to get Greinke for Marcum(Lawrie) striaght, I would not over pay in prospects for Greinke for 2 years left on his contract i believe prolly wrong, then him sign else were. would rather build a farm system with depth, and keep the turn over going then to be a long lasting contender.
I agree we shouldn’t over pay, my point is simply that if Brewers management is willing to flip Lawrie (and maybe a B level prospect) for Greinke, then I would take that in a heart beat.
I just dont see that getting Grienke, I would sell out on Upton, before i would Grienke, I trust in AA that he is going to do it right and give us a team that more then competes
I agree that what I suggested shouldn’t get Greinke, but all the chatter around the web is saying that a deal like that could possibly happen.
I agree I would not sell the farm for Greinke, but I am also not worried about it, because I know AA wouldn’t do it either. I have a ton of faith in AA and I know that no matter what happens, he will steer us in the right direction.
I don’t think anyone is saying that they wouldn’t. The problem is that the estimated price is one or two of our centerpiece young talent, like Drabek and Snider AND a couple of B level prospects. I think that’s were people are saying it’s not worth it.
Ya no, I would not even consider giving up both, I just like Lawrie more then Grienke. If he reaches his potential will be amazing to have an possible allstar calliber canadian on the roster. That alone will do alot for the franchise.
Ugh
Can we please stop overvaluing players just because they are Canadian?
Don’t get me wrong I understand Lawrie has the potential to be a great player, but the fact that he is Canadian makes absolutely no difference to whether or not we win a WS.
i agree that this doesn't make him any better or more valuable
HOWEVER, having a star player on the roster who is canadian would be good for the franchise. If we had a guy like morneau or votto, it would do alot for the team. i’m not saying that means we should be targeting these guys specifically, but if one of them turned out to be really good, i think it would be a great thing for the franchise
I agree, having a Canadian born star on the team would be good for the franchise…. although to be honest I don’t really understand why.
It confuses me why people care where their players are born, what does any of it matter as long as we win a WS? Casual fans that choose to suddenly start following the Jays because we have Canadian talent make absolutely no sense to me.
A star Canadian player on the team probably would be great for marketing.
But that would just be an added bonus, as opposed to something that should factor into the decision of making a trade like this.
Remember the Olympics?
Its that warm fuzzy feeling you get knowing a fellow citizen has succeeded
by bowling_kid25 on Dec 6, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
I think Lawrie won't be trade bait, but...
I do think it may be a precursor to another deal. Beefing up our prospect pool before shipping out other prospects for a high rated player sounds like a pretty classic GM move.
I think 2 interesting things happened with this trade...
1) Our farm is a top 6 farm now…. adding another b+ prospect
2) AA saved some money to spend for our BP
"Without a catcher we´ll have a lot of passed balls!" Casey Stengel
by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 6, 2010 12:50 PM EST reply actions
Anyone else confused by the Reynolds trade?
I have a difficult time believing that noone offered more than the garbage the Orioles just sent to the Dbacks…a decent reliever and a seemingly bad AAA reliever? Really? Does that mean that we could have traded Scott Downs and like…any of our crappy AAA relievers (we have plenty) for Reynolds? I find that hard to believe…
im talking before...midseason or something...or we couldve resigned him?
i dunno…but you see my point. a 26 year-old AAA reliever with injury issues and a 7th inning guy doesn’t spell good value to me
meh
He had 99 hits last year. Reynolds has some awesome power, but where do you put that bat in your lineup?
dunno
but i find it hard to believe they couldnt have got a better return for that guy. i mean, yea he had a crappy year, but look at the 2009 season. and yes he strikes out alot, but so do a lot of guys, and his batting average likely wont be hovering around .200 again.
No, I could see his BA jumping up to the .240 range again…maybe. If he hits for .240/.340/.470, he’s a useful player, however, will he come back to those kinds of numbers?
and yes he strikes out alot
This is a big understatement. His last 3 years his K% has been 37.8%, 38.6% and 42.3% – good for 2nd worst, worst, and worst in the league. It has to be somewhat concerning as a GM that his K% has increased every year in the league as well. Add in a propensity to hit pop ups last year, and he makes way too many ‘easy’ outs.
His return seems to be what people were predicting around the trade deadline – mabe a little light, but not teribble. Looks like a lot of people think his talent level lies at the 2010 level, and not the 2009 level.
After reading on mlbtr that a lot of teams talked to Cliff Lee´s agent...
Hope AA will surprise us again with a shot at Lee… hahaha… he will only cost us dollars and one pick… this is less then Greinke would cost us…
"Without a catcher we´ll have a lot of passed balls!" Casey Stengel
by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 6, 2010 1:41 PM EST reply actions
Just in..
MLBtraderumors report Jays after Carlos Pena.
Just makes too much sense, IMO. Heavy hitter. Power bat. Excellent defensive 1B. Knows the AL East well.
AA won´t trade for anyone who was named in trade rumors...
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 6, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Makes a ton of sense
Last year was a down year but he could/should bounce back.
Texas would make alot of sense as well for Pena, other than that can’t think of too many other teams that would.
Why doesn't MLBtraderumors...
Just name every single player in baseball (majors and minors) as someone that the Jays will trade for, and then they stand a really good chance of being correct.
haha
and know Buster Olney reports we are linked (among 4 others) to Russell Martin
it appears that there may actually be truth to that rumour
since we apparently examined his medical records. in addition, hes the kind of buy low candidate that AA seems to like
How about
Matt Diaz then? Also linked to him. This is funny.
I think it would be easier for them to mention who the Jays arent interested in
Ball.
by Casusby on Dec 6, 2010 5:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Probably
As now we are linked to Ty Wigginton.
What about Carl Crawford? Can’t the Jays be linked with him, at least until he signs elsewhere?
by Defense Counts! on Dec 6, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
Top 3?
Maybe number 1 – I think I read somewhere that BA had him ranked higher than Drabek…but not sure about that.
+1
We all knew that Drabek had a decent fastball and excellent bender, but he impressed me so much with his cutter and 2-seamer in his Major League debut.
It shocks me as to how Drabek’s K-rate wasn’t over 9 in AA, but like others have speculated, the FO must have had him working on specific pitches rather than just attacking guys.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 6, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
i think its safe to assume that lawrie won't be swapped for greinke
since mlbtr is reporting that the brewers tried to acquire greinke before turning their attention to marcum.
Why not?
Obviously it would take more than Lawrie to acquire Greinke.
Just because the Brewers didn’t want to give up what the Royals were asking for doesn’t mean the Jays won’t.
Two separate teams, two separate ways to approach a potential trade.
We have no idea what these two front offices are willing to give up for Greinke.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 6, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
well i was working under the assumption that AA would be smart enough to realize
that acquiring greinke wouldnt significantly upgrade our roster over a guy like marcum…enough to warrant trading alot more if the royals clearly want more than lawrie…enough extra that the brewers wouldnt pull the trigger on the deal. just speculating obviously, but it seems more and more unlikely
I am also leaning towards the Jays not trading for Greinke.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 6, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
O/T
Who is our new Jordan Bastian?
Does he tweet?
by craig in calgary on Dec 6, 2010 6:18 PM EST reply actions
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