Make your predictions: Jesse Carlson

by Tom Dakers on Feb 1, 2010 3:27 PM EST in Fun

Jesse had an amazing rookie season in 2008 with a 2.25 ERA in 69 games. He didn't have as good a year this year 4.66 ERA in 73 games. Jesse started off well, he had a 1.23 ERA on May 3rd. I felt he was over used. His delivery is pretty deceptive, but showing it too much loses some of the value, but he was a favorite of Cito's.

He is a favorite of mine too, even before he stood up to the Yankees and dared throw behind Jorge Posada after a a pair of series where the Yankee pitchers were using the Jay batters for target practice. The 3 game suspension worked out well, Jesse needed a some games off.

A lefty, Jesse had more trouble with left handed batters (.272/.333/.421) than right handers (.247/.304/.411), so might not be the best choice for a one out lefty type. His numbers from last year:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Carlson	1-6	73	0	0	0	0	3	67.2	67	37	35	7	21	51	4.66	1.30

Bill James has predicted him for a 4-4, 3.90, 71 game season, with 21 walks and 59 strikeouts.

CHONE guesses 4-3, 4.14, 64 games, 21 walks, 50 K's.

So what do you see Jesse doing for us?

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I think he has a bounceback year, get backs to numbers he had in 2008.

by FenixL on Feb 1, 2010 4:00 PM EST reply actions

Finishing off Posada once and for all.

by dexfarkin on Feb 1, 2010 4:00 PM EST reply actions

my prediction

intentionally hits Posada at least once this year. lol

Jesse blew a lot of games for us last season. Gave up critical hits/walks in crunch situations.

I think somewhere between 2008 and 2009 is reasonable.

I’ll be really happy with 4.00 ERA.

by harukaze on Feb 1, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

I would have to say that he blew a lot of situations because he was always the guy that had to be there. Cito needs to learn to use the bullpen, and not just the same two or three guys. I would say that Cito got very predictable, you always knew who was coming in and there were no surprises. It is easy to prepare for Jesse when you knew he was coming in every other game when you are the opponent.

by Joey P on Feb 1, 2010 9:35 PM EST up reply actions

He blew a bunch of games last season...

I see

3-5
3.45 ERA
60 IP
1.45 WHIP
45 K

by Andy Mc on Feb 1, 2010 4:21 PM EST reply actions

“Oh this is interesting”http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4391&position=P

ITts blatantly obvious that Carlson lost a significant amount of movement on his slider, those articles flooding in were not airheading it. But he still wasn’t as good as he looked in 2008.

3.6
65
55 K
20 BB

by Opisgod on Feb 1, 2010 6:46 PM EST reply actions

Anyone is better than Tallet

He’ll bounce back, so will Downs, get rid of Tallet, the guy’s a bum.

by raptor4Life on Feb 1, 2010 7:22 PM EST reply actions

Bounce back kind of ...

The difference between Carlson 2008 (C08) and Carlson 2009 (C09) may be subtle but C09 could be more indicative of what to expect in 2010. In both seasons, Carlson threw about the same number of innings (C08 = 60, C09 =67), same number of BB (21) and roughly the same number of K (C08 = 55, C09 = 51). There are slight differences but fairly consistent.

Where there is a difference is in hitting. C08 gave up 41 hits but C09 ballooned to 67 hits. As a result, C08 yielded only .195 versus .260 for C09. A key reason appears to be BABIP expansion. C08 benefited from a lowly .235 BABIP versus .300 BABIP for C09. (all the data in the paragraph sourced from Fangraphs). Assuming that Carlson gets BABIP back to normal .290 (normal per Baseball Prospectus), then, hopefully we can see a flow-through to opposing average, implying .250 in 2010 versus 260 in C08 (as noted previously).

So, factoring that all in -

G = IP = 65
K = 55
BB = 20
WHIP = 1.30
ERA = 4 to 4.25
W-L = 7 to 9 decisions at .500 +/- a game or two either way

There could be some upside to these numbers.

by aagoodfella on Feb 1, 2010 7:36 PM EST reply actions

Ther were a small handful of scattered appearances that were REAL bad. Take out his three worst appearances – 1/3 of an inning each, a total of 11 earned runs – and his ERA goes down to 3.24

So I’m going to suggest that is the neighborhood where we’ll find his ERA by the fall, with his various rates about like they have been in terms of K’s and BB and something like 7.5 H/9

by TamRa on Feb 2, 2010 4:11 AM EST reply actions