Make your prediction: Edwin Encarnacion
by Tom Dakers on Feb 10, 2010 2:55 PM EST
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PrintPart of what we got for Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion for better or worse is our third baseman. We really don't have anyone in the minors ready to jump in at the position. Jose Bautista is around but Cito seems to like him better as an outfielder. At the end of last year, when Edwin missed a few games, Cito preferred to use Millar at third and leave Jose in RF. John McDonald can play there on occasional to give E5 a day off here and there. Mike McCoy and/or Jarrett Hoffpauir could also fill in if Edwin ends up on the DL for any period. And spending time on the DL seems a possibility, the most games he's played in a major league season is 146.
We took a detailed look at Edwin's 2009 season here. His defense isn't great, but he has a strong arm. If he gets his footwork down he should be ok. I think working with Brian Butterfield should help.
Last year he missed 58 games for the Reds with a wrist injury, then hit the DL for us with a sore knee and missed a few games near the end of the season with a groin injury. His off-season has been eventful as well; he had surgery on that wrist and then fired fireworks into his face at New Year's.
Edwin had a good year in 2008 hitting 26 homers with a 251/.340/.466 line. He looked to be coming into his own. Starting last season off with the wrist injury didn't make for a good year last year. He was terrible with the Reds:
He did much better with us. Likely his wrist was some better:
There are a handful of guys that could lead the Jays in homers this year. Lind of course, Hill, Snider, but Encarnacion might surprise be in the running.
Bill James has him going .259/.343/.465 with 21 homers and 64 RBI in 502 PA.
CHONE .255/.335/.428 with 17 homers and 60 RBI in 480 PA.
So let us know what you think he'll hit. PA, batting line, homers and RBI. And number of errors seems appropriate for E5.
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projections are all over the map
James and Pecota were quite good, Chone was decent, ZIPS was terrible (.233/.317/.393). While I, like you, am hopeful that Butterfield can help him in the field, I think the best that can be hoped for is that he can go from terrible at third to merely below average, so he’ll need to hit in order to be useful. Wrist injuries are tough, and Encarnacion is still young enough to bounce back, so I’m hopeful for a good year, but not particularly optimistic. He did have 8 homers for us in just 42 games, which is encouraging, but only had 5 doubles, which is pretty bad.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
if we resign him
he’s a free agent after next season and if he doesn’t play well this year, he’ll almost certainly be non-tendered.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
whoops
accidentally erased your comment, Andy. You’re exactly right and that’s what I meant by next season, he’s a free agent after ‘11. I’m already sufficiently ready for ‘10 that it’s “this season” and 2011 is “next season.” That’s why I made reference to the Jays non-tendering him after 2010 (not keeping him for the last year of team control) if he doesn’t play well.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
oh, I see now. I am living in the past! the future is NOW
I think he’ll play well, and sign a short extension after this season. here’s to another frustratingly-lovable Jay!
the hitting is certainly possible
five runs above average at third is tough to believe and 25 homers in just 550 plate appearances (considering how many walks you’re projecting) looks tough. Not impossible, but could conceivably win him Comeback PoY
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Wrist injuries are flukey, so I expect him to have something around the James numbers, which is more than decent for a third baseman. He doesn’t have a lot of patience at the plate and a pretty good eye.
I also don’t think he’ll be anything close to an awful fielder. Encarnacion has a great arm, is athletic, and reacts quickly. I just don’t think he ‘gets’ the Hot Corner yet. He doesn’t position himself well for the bag and takes some awkward approaches to the ball. All of those things are fixable if he’s willing to learn and work with the coaches hard. I doubt he’ll be a great gloveman, but speed, reaction time and position, combined with a cannon arm makes up for that and then some if he can make it click.
EDIT
That should read: He does have a lot of patience at the plate and a pretty good eye.
those are good points
I don’t think he’ll be awful either, I just don’t see him becoming average or better. Most infielders don’t improve at his age. If he matches the James projection and doesn’t improve in the field, he’ll be worth between 1.5 and 2 wins, which isn’t bad. If he improves his fielding, and returns to the way he hit in 2008, he could really be a valuable player.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Most infielders don’t improve at his age.
True, but third base is a weird position. In my opinion, it’s been the position that relies the most on strategic intelligence ahead of physical abilities. And from what I’ve watched of EE, it’s not that lacks the ability to make the plays, but the consistancy in making them. His only real defensive liability in my observation is that he’s not a natural gloveman; he uses it a little too bluntly, doesn’t transfer well out of it to throw. Past that, it really looks to me more like inexperience or lack of training/preperation.
I agree, I haven't seen anything
that couldn’t be fixed. But at some point, the player is making a choice, implicit or explicit, not to improve on things that can be improved on. Coaching only goes so far. I have no knowledge as to how coachable Encarnacion is or isn’t so I won’t speculate on that, beyond saying that there is likely some reason why he hasn’t improved yet on things we agree he could improve on (UZR certainly doesn’t think he is getting better). That said, you certainly could be right, and I definitely hope so.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
his problem is with transfer, pivot and release point
all things that practice, coaching and (in-game) patience can cure (to an extent)
presumably
he’s had the opportunity to practice and to have coaches before. And his reactions and footwork are a big problem, from what I’ve seen.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
E5
.270/.340/.460
26 HR
70 RBI
I hope he has a good year ,somebody likes him, we trade his ass for prospects =)
or he emerges as an above-average 3B and holds the position for the forseeable future
a distinct possibility in my opinion.
Me too
….nice to see some other people coming around on this, I’ve been saying this since the day we acquired him and people wanted to ship him out for a plugged nickel.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
the guy has potential. He hit 26HRs in 2008 so its possible he can get there again.
The Jays probably wont be in the playoff race, so trading him if his value is high is a smart decision.
Only really makes sense if the team keeps Wallace at 3B
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
My prediction
He’ll have more throwing errors to 1st than homeruns.
I’m extremely bearish on E5.
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Feb 10, 2010 4:37 PM EST reply actions
Is it that far fetched?
2009 – HR’s 13 Errors 11
2008 – HR’s 26 Errors 23
2007 – HR’s 16 Errors 16
2006 – HR’s 15 Errors 25
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Feb 10, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
e5
.260 / .340 / .460; 22 HR; -6 fielding runs
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
EE
I’m going to put EE right there with John Buck … he’s got power, he can’t defend worth a damn, and I don’t think Cito’s going to like him all that much. He and Buck I think will both be guys that Cito might end up benching more often than the casual fan will like. I think we could see Bautista playing some at 3b, with maybe Lind in LF or possibly another OF makes the club (Reed is a possibility). Or even, gasp in horror, a Johnny Mac and Alex Gonzalez left side of the infield.
I'm a believer!
EE will have less errors this year than ever before!
It could happen. Really!
Stop laughing. =(
Ball.
EE could be the "Dark Horse" of 2010
And then again he could be a disaster.
Mylegacy thinks he’ll hit 272.330.499 with 27 dingers. Remember this kid has been highly touted for years – and now in his prime and healthy – could we have struck lightening in a baseball uniform? I say, “YES!”
Most likely to be 'surprisingly' DFA'd
For some reason, I see him designated for assignment sometime this year and then released. This would especially be the case if he struggles offensively and doesn’t improve defensively. This might mean a Bautista/MacDonald platoon at 3rd and a Bautista/Gathright/Snider triumvirant in RF.
I fail to see what's accomplished by DFAing him mid-season
and there’s no need to DFA him at all unless he struggles at the plate and in the field, so you don’t need to remark that it would “especially be the case,” because those are the only circumstances for that case.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
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