Make your prediction: Vernon Wells
by Tom Dakers on Feb 12, 2010 3:01 PM EST
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PrintOh Vernon, I wonder if anyone has ever taken so much crap for signing a contract put in front of him. Yeah like anyone would have turned it down. For the second time in three years he had a terrible season in 2009. Yep, he had wrist surgery after the season and no, I have no idea if the wrist caused his poor season. In 2008 he had a pretty good season.
We took a detailed look at his 2009 season here. I guess that stats that really stand out is his left/right splits, he didn't hit lefties at all (.206/.279/.323). He also hit much better on the road (.300/.335/.444) than at home (.214/.285/.348). I don't see how the wrist problem explains those splits.
His full line 2009 line:
I'd very very much like the Jays to move him out of center field. I don't think it is going to happen but I think he would help him offensively, by taking some defensive responsibly off him, keeping him heathier and help the team defensively. But it's not going to happen.
Bill James sees Vernon's future this way; .271/.327/.443 with 19 homers, 77 RBI in 592 PA.
CHONE has similar numbers; .265/.321/.420, 18 homers, 75 RBI in 608 PA.
So let us know how you see Vernon doing this year, PA, slash line, homers and RBI.
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Oh Vernon.
Would .286/.332/.440, 25 Hrs 90 RBI’s be too optimistic?
I’d also like to see 25-30 SB’s
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Feb 12, 2010 3:08 PM EST reply actions
I think the 25-30 SBs is the more optimistic number.
Assuming that last year was largely his wrist issues and just lingering injuries and such from 2008, there’s no reason to think that he can’t come back to form. Wrist injuries sap both power and bat control, not letting you square up on the ball, so if that’s the case and he’s healed, you should see him improving both power and home runs at the same time.
I’d say he’ll have a respectable .290/.340/.470 with between 20-25 homeruns, but a lot more doubles.
that would be great
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Wells ...
Fwiw, I think Wells’ wrist injuries have played a big part in his decline. Wrist injuries generally sap power, and that’s been Wells biggest problem in 2007 & 2009. That and while he’s making just as much contact as he ever did, he’s not getting as many hits … maybe a sign he’s slowing down, maybe just some bad luck, I don’t know.
I’ll say he bounces back a bit in the avg&power dept hitting:
.275-.325-.465
8 months ago...
I was ridiculed on here for saying Lind was the superior hitter over Vernon Wells. And I didn’t argue it in the nicest way, so I apologize. But looking at everyone’s Lind predictions we have definitely come a long way! Although, I believe we are a little optimistic on Lind, and a little pessimistic on Wells. Here’s my shot!
.280/.330/.470, 25 HR, 105 RBI, 5 SB
This is the type of player Vernon is. He is good, but not great.
we're it took 8 months to apologize : )
Wells will take a few months to get over the guilt he feels when he deposits his paycheque on March 1.
Uhhh
the worst part of last year was looking at him strike out with RISP or ground into a DP or as i like to call it just plain old fail.
.270/.320/.440
18 or 20 HRs
70 RBI
I just hope he plays better…
I hope he's 100% healthy
.290 BA
25 HRs
90 RBIs
.340 OBP
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!
Me too. With Vernon Wells having taken so much abuse last season, with a supposed injury and with expectations generally low, I think he’s going to bounce back and have a good year in 2010. I’m guessing he’ll flirt with hitting .300, but end up in the .290’s; probably be on pace for 25 HRs, but finish somewhere in the 20-25 range. For RBIs, if he gets the above numbers, then 90 RBIs seems reasonable.
That LH split is funny
Because everyone knows all you have to do is pitch away to Wells and he will pop up, and guess what’s easy for left handers against a righty?
CF...
I like the idea of moving Wells out of CF since his hammies have always bothered him each year. Keeping him healthy would certainly go a great deal to improve his numbers. Maybe move Snider in a deal for a up and coming CF and move Wells to RF.
Oh the unintentional comedy
As a bobsledder passes through a midpoint of the track mark Jamie Screams “OH MY, JOHN Q SNOWBOARDER HAS DEMOLISHED THE RECORD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”.
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Feb 12, 2010 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
OOps
John Q Snowbarder Bobsledder
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Feb 12, 2010 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
I think you should have left his name as
John Q. Snowboarder. It makes it seem like he defied expectations
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I think he has been covering downhill skiing all season. Yep, there is life after baseball for Jamie.
by aagoodfella on Feb 12, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
bounce back year?
ab =610
avg = 290
obp = 340
slg = 525
hr = 20 (maybe shade more)
rbi = 80 (tough to predict as dependent on others’ obp)
sb = 10
cs =3
e = 2
To meet your line he’d probably need to hit about 30hr (and that assumes he could hit ~5 triples), not 20. That or a LOT of doubles. Like a LOT a LOT. To be specific, like 75-80 if you give him a realistic # of triples (3-5). Long story short, there’s no way he gets his SLG up there without a lot more HR or average closer to .330 than .290.
I figured by HR count was a bit low for the slugging number I put up, so I hedged myself with the “maybe shade more” — I like to give myself outs …. LOL … so my projection can be met with either a combo of lots of extra base hitting or more HRs, either way I get one prediction right, either slugging or HR … LOL
by aagoodfella on Feb 13, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
And I quote " He's a good player , not a great one
I think that’s the best way I can understand Vernon.
Would you put wells and pujols in the same Category ? God no , unless we were to talk player salary ( btw OuCh )
anyways
24 bombs
high 90’s low 100’s RBI
look at his rookie season carbon copy
lucas
by TorontoBluejays10 on Feb 13, 2010 12:03 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Better be good this yr.
This is the yr he starts making huge $$$.
I am not expecting all-star performance. I’d be content with 0.270 with 20-25HR.
I want 200+ hits and 100+ runs from VW this year
VW needs to start earning his paycheques.
And I’d rather have VW lead-off than have Jose Bautista in the top-spot.
With issues surrounding ( hamstring – older legs – ) you wouldn’t want the extra strain leading off ( base stealing/bunting/hit n runs / generally alot of action/ would place on wells , I think we need to re- build the idea of Vernon into a productive corner outfielder with experience on a few competitive A.L east teams throughout the decade ( think of Jermaine dye – just take franchise label off him- forgot about the war – the value he gives on the dollar in the comparitive market – it’s done and it’s not vernons fault –
Bat him five and rotate him in and out of center with whoever can handle it – bautista gathwright ?
I’m going to stop talking about Vernon until i watch him start the season – it will say alot to see him healthy
lucas
by TorontoBluejays10 on Feb 13, 2010 4:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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