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Will the Jays make one more move this spring?

We are getting closer, the Jays have their first 'official' workout on the 22nd and their first spring game is March 3rd. We have 32 pitchers coming to camp, though 3 of them are injured so really we'll have 29 guys for the 11 spots on the pitching staff. Right now our 40 man rosters, as listed on MLB.com has 27 pitchers listed and 14 position players. I know that adds up to 41, I am guessing that the paper work for either the Dana Eveland trade or the Kevin Gregg signing hasn't been filed yet, even though those players show on that list. Someone will have to be dropped from the 40 man somehow. Another roster spot will be needed for a catcher but that can wait until the end of spring training. Someone like Dirk Hayhurst or Jesse Litsch can be put on the 60 day DL then. 

There still are a few players out there that the Jays might look at, we can list some of them:

Jermaine Dye: Dye is 36 now, he's a proven power hitter, he had 27 home runs last year, but his slash line, from last year doesn't excite (.250/.340/.453). He can play RF but his defense isn't what it used to be out there. I don't think his defense would be any better than Travis Snider's. He's a right handed bat that hits lefties much better than righties and we have one of those already in Jose Bautista, who would give us better defense in RF. If it was up to me I'd pass on him. 

Johnny Damon: Johnny has the appeal of being a far better lead off hitter, at least again RHP, than Jose Bautista would be. He had 24 home runs last year, but 17 of them came in the very very homer friendly Yankee Stadium so somewhere else he'd be lucky to get to the mid-teens in homers. He's 36 now, has no arm at all in the OF, he could only play left which would make RF the only spot left for Travis Snider and I'm not sure Cito will play Snider there. If he's going to take at bats away from Travis, I don't want him. Add in that the Tigers are rumored to have offered him $7 million a year on a two year contract, I don't see the Jays matching that. 

Rocco Baldelli: Rocco still is sitting there without a contract. He's a good glove in RF and would be able to spell Vernon in CF. Actually he'd likely be a better CFer than Vernon but he the Jays wouldn't move Wells out of CF for him. He's 28 now so in his prime, health problems have kept him from the career he could have had. He's another right handed batter that hits lefty pitching better than righties so doesn't make for a platoon partner with Bautista. I know he's a favorite of some, but unless he'd come on a minor league contract and battle out for a spot I don't see the point. 

Carlos Delgado: Carlos has a nostalgia appeal, it would be nice to see him get his 500th home run as a Jay. He is 27 away so he'd need a comeback season to get there. I have my doubts that he could play first so, if we signed him, he'd have to DH, which would move Lind into LF and, I hope, Snider into right. It really wouldn't make much sense, except for nostalgia, but it would make us fans happy. It would ensure that Randy Ruiz doesn't make the team but then if you are worried about a 32 year old career minor leaguer making the team, your priorities are wrong. If it happened, fine, if not, fine. 

Russell Branyan: 35 now and had a career type year last year. His 31 homers set a career high, beating the old high water mark by 7. He had a terrific first half of 2009, 152 OPS+ but a poor second half, 81 OPS+. Could back up Edwin at third, as well as play first and DH, I guess. A lefty bat so wouldn't platoon with Lyle at first. I don't see the point to signing him. 

If you are looking for a catcher or backup catcher there are a few free agents left. Rod Barajas still hasn't signed and I'm starting to give up hope of getting that draft pick that he was to bring us. I can't see why we'd sign him since we have the lite version of him in John Buck. Jose Molina still hasn't signed, he'd be a good defense only back up catcher. Or if you wanted to offer him a minor league contract, Michael Barrett is available (let's face it, he's alway available) and he's a year younger than Barajas.

The other thing that could happen, this spring, is that with the surplus of pitching arms we could be looking to make a trade. I have the feeling that the only way Anthopoulos would trade some of the pitchers is if he could get a young shortstop that could hold the major league job for 5 to 10 years. There aren't a lot of those out there. I guess it is possible that he could move a couple or three arms for a RFer, but I have a feeling the stockpile is there to find a way to pry a SS from someone. And Lyle is still on the team. If Alex could work out a trade for him, I'm sure we'd be happy to see Brett Wallace at first earlier than we expected.

So I ask the question, is there a move you would like the see the Jays make before the start of the season?

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I’d be happy with any one of these signings, save Dye. Any two of them, I’d have to consider strongly. I like Branyan so long as Lind is in the field or Overbay is out the door for something worthwhile. I like Delgado so long as Ruiz is getting his bats with Overbay. I like Damon so long as Bautista is firmly nailed to the bench. I like Baldelli as the fourth OF.

So, yeah, it depends more on what still is in the works.

by dexfarkin on Feb 16, 2010 11:34 AM EST reply actions  

Rocco and Carlos

I was actually suprised to see Rocco is without a contract, especially only at 28. Wasn’t he supposed to be a bona fide superstar and then ran into injuries? I dunno, like you said Tom, maybe offer him a minor league contact, he might suprise alot of people

I really like the possibility of bringing Carlos home to retire. (ala Ken Griffey in Seattle) I also don’t believe he’s just a nostalgic pickup, didn’t he hit 38 HR’s just 2 years ago? This would especially be a wise pickup if we could get something for Overbay.

"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.

by craig in calgary on Feb 16, 2010 12:05 PM EST reply actions  

He did hit 38 homers two years ago,

but two years when you are 37 is a lot more than 2 years when you are 27. With the injuries and with him only able to DH, you might end up with the second coming of the 2008 Frank Thomas. Would he be enough better than Ruiz or Dopirak or Wallace to be worth giving him all their at bats?

by Tom Dakers on Feb 16, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

On Barajas

IF – Rod signs a “Major League” contract this off-season we get a “supplemental” pick – about number 41 overall. How much is a 41st overall pick worth?

I ask because why don’t we consider paying some team a half million to supplement their pay to him so they sign him and we get that 41st overall pick?

As to “other” moves this off-season – I think that Cuban first baseman Ruiz might be a possibility.

by Mylegacy on Feb 16, 2010 12:12 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah they might sign Ruiz.

I didn’t include him because I don’t see him making the major league team out of spring anyway. I think they’d want to take the year to see what he can do.

by Tom Dakers on Feb 16, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

He would have to be trade bait, yes? What need would the Jays have for another 1B.

by aagoodfella on Feb 16, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

according to victor wang at hardball times

the supplemental pick is worth a little over $1M

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-one/

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Feb 16, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Dye = Joba2 so pass
Baldelli = Joba2 so pass
Damon = would fit nice in Jays but one foot in Tiger stadium and likely too costly anyway, so probably, pass
Delgado = sure nice bat, but threatens Ruiz (sorry, I disagree about Ruiz. I think he is a late bloomer and could have five more productive years – perhaps more – with the Jays as a cost-effective DH. In my eyes, that is worth too much to discard a player due to birth certificate. Sure it is a bit risky, but it is not like the Jays cannot afford risks right now. So, I would rather take a flyer on a 32 year old Ruiz for the, admittedly, modest chance at a multi-year run as DH. If Jays were contenders this year, I would opt for Delgado, but we are not. But a couple of years from now? Who knows. And maybe Ruiz will be stroking MLB then like he did MiLB. Even at 34, 35 or 36 or 37, he could be quite helpful.) So on Delgado, have to pass.
Branyan – is there anything compelling about this option?

by aagoodfella on Feb 16, 2010 1:33 PM EST reply actions  

The problem with Ruiz

is that he has no defensive flexibility at all, and the Blue Jays already have two young hitters that are pretty talented in Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion who don’t exactly play the field particularly well.

Realistically, the best move that Toronto could make would be a move for a new center fielder, so they could push Wells to left field, keep Snider to right field and Lind at DH. The offensive standard for a DH is really, really high (replacement level for a DH is 17 runs above average offensively), and it’s not clear that he’ll be able to produce enough offensively to not only justify a roster spot, but playing time at DH and first base as well.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 16, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Yea, I guess that is true Ruiz ties the Jays’ hands defensively. I guess, in my mind, was implied that Lind adn Snider evolve to become everyday outfielders leaving the DH role open to late-blooming (fingers crossed) Ruiz.

by aagoodfella on Feb 16, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Realistically, I think that the future plan

is to have Wallace at first, Snider in right, Wells in left, and Lind at DH, which clearly doesn’t leave much of a spot for Ruiz. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a trade candidate eventually, much like a few other guys on that team.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 17, 2010 9:39 AM EST up reply actions  

to whom?

Teams won’t exactly line up to pay him that salary. He’s a guy that it makes more sense to move midseason, as teams could get desperate for a solid lefty hitter. Another guy to really watch is Scott Downs, he could certainly be gone by August.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 16, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Like the attitude =D

I hope he gets traded but i dont see it happening
Best case= He plays his ass off, has a great year (Contract year woop) we trade him for some prospects

by FenixL on Feb 16, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

crap

the woop was supposed to have a * next to it indicating im making a wooping sound….. Failure on my part…

by FenixL on Feb 16, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t see the Jays adding any FA’s.
- You could argue maybe you sign Dye or Damon and try to swing them at the deadline if they’re having a decent year, but I’m not sure the risk/reward is very good there.
- Delgado I think people hit on the head, would like to see it but it just doesn’t make sense as long as Overbay is here.
- I don’t get Branyan at all unless you’re thinking of putting him at 3b … which I don’t really get either … but maybe he’s a cheaper version of Dye/Damon (i.e. possible deadline trade bait)
- as for the C’s … Raul Chavez v Jose Molina, does it really make a difference?

What I think AA will look to do is offload a P or 2, in particular Downs or Frasor. But even more so, I think it will be worth watching what he does wrt RF. If guys like Reed and Gathright fail to impress, I could see AA offer up some of the pitching depth to make a pitch for someone that is on the bubble to make another club or wearing out their welcome. On the high end I’m thinking of someone like David Murphy in Texas (who could make a terrific platoon partner for Jose Bautista) but more so lesser guys like Brandon Jones, Brandon Moss or Ryan Church in Pittsburgh or if Detroit signs Damon maybe Clete Thomas in Detroit. Murphy might take something, but the rest of the guys might not take a whole lot to acquire, especially the group from Pittsburgh as someone is not going to make the club. Future superstars? No. But possibly more useful to the Jays than having what … 9 LHRP in the running for jobs?

by jayjay on Feb 16, 2010 3:36 PM EST reply actions  

trade overbay....

at or before the deadline when some first baseman on a contending team gets injured and needs a first baseman. you wont get a young SS for him, but can definately get a young OF or 3B.

by JaysFan101 on Feb 16, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions  

That would be awesome to see Delgado in a Jays uniform again. Wells and Delgado formed quite the formidable duo back in the day, though obviously now that kind of production probably wouldn’t happen. Still, it would be thrilling to see.

by Icedragon on Feb 16, 2010 6:37 PM EST reply actions  

i dont see why it would be so thrilling….. They’re both past their prime, if anything it would be depressing to see how far the great have fallen.

by FenixL on Feb 16, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

What about Filipe Lopez?

He could replace Scutaro’s OBP/AVG, platoon RF/leadoff with Bautista, spell 3B, 2B, LF, maybe even SS if needed.

He is only 29, and in great shape (it seems). I would sign him to a 3yr/$10MM contract (or less if possible). He is a valuable player because he is versatile. A great super-sub/platoon guy to have.

Also, I would like Branyan, only if he could handle a RF platoon with Bautista, but only for ~$3MM.

Dye would have limited use as a platoon 1B, 4th OF, so I would not mind AA signing him for cheap, although Ruiz loses out in that scenario.

by Andy Mc on Feb 18, 2010 3:34 AM EST reply actions  

trouble with Lopez is that you're signing him to a multi-year deal

after what was essentially a career year. A fair portion of his fangraphs WAR value last season was tied up in UZR’s high grade of his glovework (7 runs above average), which — although TotalZone liked him as well (6 runs above average) — is an aberration from his career.

And while fangraphs loved him last year (4.5 wins), baseballprojection saw him as essentially an above-average (but not very good) player, and that’s considering his TotalZone, which, as mentioned earlier, is A. not far behind UZR (2.5 wins) and B. also an aberration with respect to his career, where he’s been essentially an average defensive 2nd baseman.

Lopez hit fine last season, but hasn’t posted an above-average offensive season since 2005. Add in that he had a .358 BABIP last season (.320 career) and we’re looking at what is likely to be a fallback, as he slows down. Unless the Jays sign him to play short (where he’s a significantly below-average fielder), the only places the Jays can really afford to play Lopez are 2nd (not happening) and 3rd (they are already committing to giving the starting job to E5).

I would say that the bottom line here is that Felipe Lopez’s absolute ceiling is probably 3 wins/yr, but I don’t think he’ll be a 3 win player even next season, I think he’s likely to come back down to 2 or 2 1/2 and I don’t think it’s wise for the Jays to put themselves on the hook for him for three seasons. If they can get him on a one- or two-year deal (7M/2yr or so), that would be fine for me, though it makes me wonder why they had to sign Mac to a two-year deal.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Feb 18, 2010 8:35 AM EST up reply actions  

To me, the Mac signing has Cito written all over it. I think it’s fair to say that it is by far the most puzzling move that AA has committed so far and makes no sense unless there was some pressure coming from somewhere.

by siggian on Feb 18, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

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