Make Your Prediction...Roy Halladay

Looks like BBB is done with Jays player predictions (though I may be wrong), so I thought I'd throw something up, to see how everyone thinks Halladay will do with the Phils.  He's not a Jay, but you know Jays fans will be following him closely this year.  In fact, for me, it'll be a toss up as to whether I watch the Jays opening game or Phils (probably flip in between).  It is nice though that the Phils home opener is scheduled to start 1 hour before the Jays game.

Anyways, here is my prediction and how I came up with it.

Last year, Halladay was 17-10, with a 2.79 ERA, 208 K, a WHIP of 1.13 and 9 CG over 239 IP and 32 starts


He played in 44% of his games in the AL East, who averages 5.09 runs per game.  The NL East, where he'll be playing 44% of his games next year averages 4.57 runs per game, which is 89% of the AL East's runs per game.

The other 56% of his games played in the AL were versus opponents who scored 4.67 runs per game.  The other non NL East divisions in the NL score 4.3 runs per game, which is 92% of the other AL teams.

So...  To adjust ERA for NL, I calculated, with the data above, that over 239 IP (though he may pitch more than that in NL), he would allow 68 ER's instead of the 74 of last year, which would adjust his ERA to 2.52.

The wins are hard to predict.  The Phillies last year had 93 Wins, 69 Losses.  They pitched 1455.2 IP, which equals out to 1 Win per 15 IP per pitcher and 1 Loss per 21 IP per pitcher.  However, the team ERA is 4.16.  Halladay's projected ERA as above is 2.52.  Therefore, Halladay's projected adjusted wins per IP, according to my calculations, and according to a 93 Win season and a 239 IP season for Halladay, would be 27 Wins.  His projected losses would be 7.  Of course, it wouldn't make too much sense to have a W-L record with 34 decisions, particularly given the fact that he will likely only get around 32-34 starts, if all goes well.  So I'll do one last adjustment.  Last year, he had a decision in 84% of his starts.  I'm projecting a 79% winning % (27-7) for Halladay.  Therefore, if he starts 32 games, and has a decision in 84% of his starts, with a 79% winning %, he'll go 21-6.

So there you go, my prediction.

21-6 with an ERA of 2.52.

For comparison purposes, Lincecum in 2009 (NL Cy Young) went

15-7 with an ERA of 2.48 over 32 starts.

Really, it would be cool if he could somehow manage 23-25 Wins, but that's a lot to ask.

So what do you think?

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