Will our Triple-A team be better than our Major League team?
by Tom Dakers on Feb 23, 2010 1:43 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintI'm not saying necessarily that this is a bad thing, but does anyone else think our Vegas team will be the better team of the two this year?
The 51's starting rotation will likely include Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart, Brad Mills, Bob Ray and who ever doesn't make the Jays rotation. Drabek and Stewart are our number 1 and 3 prospects respectively. Both are likely major league ready as far as stuff goes, but both need to stretch out the number of innings they can pitch in a year. Mills is number 10 on our list and also could likely pitch in the majors if the numbers didn't work against him. Add in which ever starters don't make the Jays and you'll likely have a rotation that's not all that much worse than what the Jays have, except, maybe, a little less experienced. If that is possible.
The bullpen could be anchored by Daniel Farquhar and maybe Tim Collins, if not to at the start of the season, at some point during the year. The rest of the pen will be made up of guys that don't make the Jays out of camp. Some of the bullpen decisions will be made as much on the bases of who has options as much as who are the best pitchers.
Catcher at Vegas will be J.P. Arencibia. After reading about his vision troubles last year, other than experience, does anyone really think that John Buck would be much better than JP?
First base, for the 51's will be Brett Wallace. Wallace is prospect number 2 on our list. He can use the experience of playing first at Triple-A. Overbay is experienced and hits RHP well, I'd imagine he'd be better defensively but I doubt would be more than 1% better than Wallace by the end of the year.
Second base, well yeah the Jays win that one. Scott Campbell I like a lot but Hill is much much better. Brad Emaus will likely make Vegas at some point.
Shortstop, I'm guessing Mike McCoy will play short at Vegas. Alex Gonzalez will be far better defensively but McCoy will likely be a better offensive player.
Third base, who knows what kind of season Edwin Encarnacion will have. But then I don't know who will be playing third in Vegas. Maybe Jarrett Hoffpauir and/or Kyle Phillips.
Outfield: The Jays outfield looks to be Snider, Wells, Bautista. Just to depress you, their batting averages last year were .241, .260 and .235 respectively. They'll be better this year. At Vegas, Darin Mastroianni should make the team at some point. The rest of the outfield will likely be filled with spring minor league invites Joey Gathright, Chris Lubanski, Jorge Padilla and Jeremy Reed. Yeah the Jay's outfield will be better, how much better is an open question yet.
DH: Lind will be great. Odds are Brian Dopirak will get the job in Vegas and have a great season. Not that it will help him unless the Jays trade Overbay, the best he can hope for is a platoon role with Overbay if he has an amazing spring training, but then Wallace will be playing first for the Jays next year.
Oh well, I think overall that the major league team will be better but for the first time in a number of years it looks like we have a good Triple-A team with a number of players that could move up to the Jays at some point.
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Drabek
I thought Drabek was likely starting in New Hampshire, not Las Vegas. It’s sort of up in the air, but I think they are going to have to be blown away to rush him up to AAA right away.
Also, I would STRONGLY disagree with the notion that Stewart and Drabek are ML ready stuff wise. Stewart’s still working on his change that he didn’t throw as much in college (as a RP) and his slider, which can be a tremendous pitch, is reportedly still inconsistent. Drabek has just started using the change as well, and he basically dominated A+ w/ his big 2 pitches (FB, CB). Both will need the changeup to get LHB out at the ML level. I’d say either of them could probably get away with their 2 top pitches out of the bullpen right now, but you really want to see them at least be able to throw that 3rd pitch here and there out of the rotation.
I agree
that Drabek and Stewart aren’t quite ready for the big times as they need a little more work on their secondary (tertiary?) pitches.
I also think Drabek will likely start at AA depending on how his spring goes – with the hitter-friendly environment in the PCL and LV, there’s no incentive for the Jays to at all overpromote their pitchers beyond AA. But if Drabek dominates AA, which is not at all unlikely, he could move up quickly if there is an opening and that might not be a bad idea. The hitter-friendly nature of the PCL may make pitchers vulnerable and try them by fire, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing for pitchers coming up into the AL East.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I realllly hope
Drabek starts in NH. I took 2 days off work to go see opening night/weekend in New Britain.
by NHfishercatsfan on Feb 23, 2010 4:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
There's a good chance...
that Wallace will start the year at AA, too, since we have a couple decent 1B prospects at the triple-(or quad-)A level already. The AAA roster will probably start the year with a very good pitching staff (many of which are ML calibre), but the positional players are still a bit of a weakness. I’d bet the 51’s would be lucky to win 2 games out of 10 versus the Jays.
Have to disagree, there is next to no chance Wallace starts at AA. He spent the majority of last year at AAA and at least held his own, there is no reason to demote him. The way I see it is very likely to shake down like this:
- Wallace playing 1b at AAA: needs to work on 1b skills, no reason to demote him
- Cooper playing 1b at AA: needs to repeat AA, needs to work on D
- Ruiz or Dopirak (likely Ruiz): makes big club, some DH time and/or platoon w/ Overbay
- Ruiz or Dopirak (likely Dopirak): AAA DH
- if neither Ruiz or Dopirak make the big club, I’d expect Ruiz to be DFA’d and end up on another club either in AAA or possibly someone’s MLB bench. With the logjam at 1b/DH in the Jays system and him turning 33 this year the writing would be on the wall and he’d likely ask for his release and if the Jays couldn’t even find room for him in the majors I think he’d get it. That said, I think he most likely does make the club.
I wish wallace would start at NH but he will be in Vegas. I’d like to have seen him up close but I guess I’ll have to wait til he comes to Fenway as a Jay.
by NHfishercatsfan on Feb 23, 2010 4:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
cooper
Should be sent to dunedin. He needs to be humbled and maybe go back to basics. He did the jeter check-swing and lean into every pitch last year.
by NHfishercatsfan on Feb 23, 2010 4:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Cooper should be sent to...
Coventry.
As to the AAA team – I’m not sure it’ll be “better” but no question it should be jolly interesting! Quite a change for any Jays AAA team – usually an appalling collection of ne’er-do-wells. Speaking of “ne’er-do-wells” – it’s a pity Vernon Wells will have to play at the Major League level – not being good enough to make our AAA team.
They won't be better, but they'll be a pretty good AAA team
I’m actually looking forward the MilB season, almost as much as the MLB season – lol. I really enjoy following the boxscores and seeing how the prospects are progressing. I’m actually thinking about subscribing to MilBTV this year. Anyone ever try it, and, if so any comments on it?
I must say
That the headline is somewhat offensive, as it implies that whoever decides who’s going to make the big leagues (supoosedely the best players you have) is clueless.
The rest of the article, and particularly its end is more of a compliment to the front office that stacked up so many prospects to make our triple-A such an exciting team.
Festina Lente
That the headline is somewhat offensive, as it implies that whoever decides who’s going to make the big leagues (supoosedely the best players you have) is clueless.
I think that is precisely the point. I used to be a Cito supporter but I can no longer do so given the way I feel he mishandled last season in terms of player development and evaluation. I am willing to concede that there were more fingers in the pot than just Cito’s but he was the person who wrote up the starting line up every day.
no no....
didn’t mean to suggest they would pick out the wrong guys, figured with options and contracts and prospects the second grouping won’t be much worst than the first. If I wanted to say “TPTB are stupid” I would have said that.
A possible LV 51s lineup...
McCoy SS
Hoffpauir 3B
Wallace 1B
Dopirak DH
Arencibia C
Campbell 2B
Gathright CF
Reed RF
Mastroianni LF
Looks good to me. Add that to their pitching, wow. They may do very well. How much is the MiLB Gameday Video package?
To agree with previous comments, Drabek won’t fit at AAA right now.
If no one else gets hurt, here’s the SP depth chart (ignoring Cito’s Tallet fetish)
Marcum
McGowan
Romero
Morrow
Zep
Richmond* <prob start year on DL
Tallett <fill in if need be
AAA-
Cecil
Purcey
Mills
Stewart <only listed this low because of innings limit issue
Ray
Boone <not really a prospect but a floater who can be plugged in as necessary
Broadway <might get cut before season starts
AA-
Drabek
Perez
Liebel
Gonzalez
Rodriguez?
A-
Bell
Jenkins
Alverez
Drabek COULD be in AAA IF…
*Cecil made the majors without displacing another guy to Vegas
*Someone got hurt (Ray tends to)
*Someone got released (besides Broadway)
*Someone is shifted to relief (Ray again is a possibility)
…the latter two maybe even BECAUSE Drabek pitches so well in the spring he forces it.
Some of this will likely happen before the first half ends and if Drabek pitches well in AA he’ll be the guy they want to call but things will have to change for him to start the year there. But I’m sure the Jays will want him up to AAA as soon as is practical so he can be in line to be considered for the majors next spring.
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