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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes).

The Walt Whitman quote seems to work for Cito Gaston's conversations with reporters over the last while. Most of the time I don't worry about people contradicting themselves because, well, if you talk about anything enough you will contradict yourself. Including baseball managers. It really doesn't do anyone any good to hard and fast rules since managers are dealing with people who all have their own personalities. That's true of Cito too. The other day, talking about batting orders, he gave conflicting reasons for batting guys where he intends to.

Adam Lind batting 3rd:

"I've preached it a lot and I've lived by it too, I like to keep people comfortable," Gaston said on Monday. "I played this game and if you're not comfortable where you are, sometimes you don't perform.

Which seems fair...but then Lind only hit 4th in 4 games last year and hit .294/.294/.471, not enough of a sample to tell anything about. Cito was clear that he hadn't talked to Lind about the move this off season. Maybe if he talked to him he'd say, "I'm fine, I'll hit where you tell me, whatever is best for the team". Maybe if the manager didn't remind everyone that he didn't like hitting fourth then it might all work out. 

On Vernon Wells batting 4th:

Fourth? You're looking at center fielder Vernon Wells as the cleanup man to open the year. Gaston said he doesn't want to "tear down Vernon's confidence." He went on to say, "We need him to come back and be himself. It's all about trying to get the best out of people and trying to put them in a place where they're comfortable."

Similar, but why not build up Lind's confidence if you think cleanup is the glamour spot in the order. I'm not a big fan of the idea of putting a guy in a spot to show confidence in them because if you 'show confidence in one guy you are showing a lack of it in another guy. Put in the guy that you think will do best and forget about comfort and confidence..

Then on Jose Bautista hitting leadoff:

"Devon White didn't want to be a leadoff hitter. I said, `Devon, it's just one time.' After that it was all right. I never asked him to act like a leadoff hitter, like to go up there and walk. (I said) go up there and be aggressive and he did that and he was great."

Which seems to be the opposite of what he said about Lind. I don't know. I believe this a lot more than the other. I believe if you tell a player he is going to do X, tell him he can do X and then leave him there to do it, he will get comfortable (within reasonable limits). Same as I believe if you put Lind in 4th and tell him he can do the job he will. But if you tell him he's not good enough to play 4th, he'll likely prove you right too. The same as I believe if you told him he could play left, I'm sure he'd learn to do ok, but if you tell him he can only DH then what is the incentive to get better. 

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Lind is quite clear on this

If you read interviews with Lind, it’s quite clear that he doesn’t want to hit cleanup, and it isn’t about recent performance but goes way back in his playing career. It sounds like he thinks he’s almost a bit jinxed in that slot. So why bother putting him there? I agree with Cito on this one. If Lind’s got himself so psyched out about it, going back years and years, then don’t mess with it. There’s a danger of overestimating Lind’s development – he’s only got one full season of success under his belt. So the focus should all be on doing things to make him more comfortable, not less. If he doesn’t want to hit fourth, then there’s no reason to – it just doesn’t make that big a difference to the team.

by jabalong on Feb 24, 2010 8:50 PM EST reply actions  

yea, I cannot argue with the stats you (Dakers) put up, but for some reason I have recollection of seeing Lind bat 4th and he looked very very uncomfortable. I would love to have Lind bat 4th, I think it is where he belongs, but really if he cannot adjust, what can a GM do?

by aagoodfella on Feb 24, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Lind belongs in the 3-hole

We need his OBP getting max at bats. Put a hot Ruiz or Wells behind him, and we will see some fireworks.

by Andy Mc on Feb 24, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I think everyone is nitpicking about the lineup. There will be plenty of other opportunities to criticize Cito. I don’t see this one as being a relatively valid one.

Lind is the best hitter on the team right now. Why not put him there? I don’t understand wanting to put him in th 4 hole and potentially losing some AB’s. And if Lind prefers to hit 3rd, yeah that should be taken into consideration. Maybe Hill could bat 4th, instead of Wells, sure… But I’m hopeful that Wells will be back to his old self this year in that spot until Snider explodes and takes it over. Of course, my sentimental favorite as a clean up hitter is Ruiz, but that’s a long shot.

The best lineup suggestion I’ve seen so far is from the Tao of Stieb’s latest post. And Lind is batting 3rd.

Again, the biggest problem with Cito is lack of adjustments. He’ll stick to the same lineup, regardless of performance. If he can change that philosophy, I’m OK with his projected lineup. That being said, the opening day lineup should at least in part reflect ST performance, in my opinion.

by REMO on Feb 24, 2010 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

The key is success...

If Wells has a bad start, move him down. If Snider rakes, move him up etc.

Cito’s “predetermined” lineup will be great if the players can fill the roles he puts them in, but as soon as they can’t changes need to be made, and quickly. I would give Wells no more than 150 PA in the clean up spot to prove he should be there. The same goes for guys like Ruiz and EE in lower spots: if they rake, they should move up into high-leverage roles.

Success, or lack thereof should influence the order of your batters, and yes, ST can only help in making those determinations.

by Andy Mc on Feb 25, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

that is a big fer sure. Last year watching Rios – Wells bat 3 – 4 through most of the season even though they were slumping - holy cow that was infuriating. Adjust the lineup to the players performance already. Wounded egos is a much lower priority to winning lineups and games.

by aagoodfella on Feb 25, 2010 7:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Cito is probably right...

but it’s for the wrong reasons (as far as I can see it). Lind is young, full of potential, and still developing… thrusting him into a role that he has said himself he is uncomfortable with is probably not the best thing to help him at this point… he’ll have time to get over his fear of the 4th spot. Vernon has little-to-no value at this point, after his recent struggles. Give him a chance to build some of that value back up by putting him in a position to pad his stats a little. Bautista can go fuck himself, bat him where you want to… seriously, he will never be a legitimate every-day player on a contending team, and if he has ANY value to the future of this club, it’s as a pinch-hitter… there’s no point trying to cater to him or his preferences, he can make his $2 million any way Cito sees fit.

by hilleraj84 on Feb 25, 2010 9:16 AM EST reply actions  

I just don't see the value

in getting too worked up over the batting order in terms of whether Lind is batting 3rd or 4th. I do get exercised when we hear plans to bat Bautista first against righties, or A-Gon second, because that’s just silly. But the minor tinkering between the 3-6 hitters I don’t think matters all that much and I do think hitters like knowing where they are going to bat and hitting where they feel comfortable.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Feb 25, 2010 9:52 AM EST reply actions  

Especially now...

By the time ST is over, we’ll have heard about twenty different lineups, as some guys surprise and some guys disappoint. I can almost garauntee Lind will bat out of the four hole at least at some point during the spring, as will Hill and even Encarnacion as they go through different combinations during training games.

by dexfarkin on Feb 25, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Well thats the hope, as that should be the case.

The problem is I don’t think many people expect Cito to do that. Most people expect Cito to pencil in the lineup and then throw away the eraser.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Feb 25, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, the blogosphere has already decided. Personally, I think I’ll taking all the talk right now for the same kind of musing that you regularly get at the beginning of Spring Training, and not get worked up about it yet.

by dexfarkin on Feb 25, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions  

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