Signings: Kevin Gregg and others.
by Tom Dakers on Feb 3, 2010 1:35 AM EST
in Analysis
61 comments
Before we get to the main feature, the Jays have also signed former first round draft pick, Wade Townsend, to a minor league contract. Wade was 8th pick overall in the 2004 draft by the Orioles. He has been released by the Orioles and the Rays, and his minor league numbers don't exactly shout potential. But then our minor league teams need enough pitchers to cover all the innings. Also, the Nationals signed former Jay fan favorite Kevin Mench. Mench spent last year with the Hanshin Tigers of Japanese baseball league.
But the real news, as noted in Syc's fanpost is that we've signed Kevin Gregg. He will make $2.75 million next year and has options for 2011 and 2012 that could make the deal worth $12 million. Gregg will be 32 next year, he's been in the majors for 7 seasons with the Angels, Marlins and Cubs. The last three seasons he has been in 74, 72 and 72 games so he is durable. He has 85 career saves, all but one in the last three years. He strikes out about a batter an inning. You can see his numbers here.
This past year was a tough one for Kevin, with a 4.72 ERA. The worst was he gave up 13 homers for a rate of 1.7HR/9, but he had much better rates the two years before (0.8HR/9 in 2007 and 0.4HR/9 in 2008). So the question is: is 2009 his new level of performance or will he bounce back to his previous level of play? He throws hard and has always been a fly ball pitcher. Perhaps the heavy workload caught up to him last year. If home runs remain a problem, he is in the wrong division, Yankee Stadium in particular would be a bad place for him.
It does seem like his signing adds to an over crowded bullpen. The Jays say Gregg will compete with Scott Downs and Jason Frasor for the closer job, but perhaps one of those two will be traded away. I'd imagine. Actually it's easy to admit that I don't know what the plan is. The plan might be that the Jays hope Gregg will have a very good first half of the season and become a nice looking trading chip at the trade deadline. That seems like a strange reason to sign a player but who knows.
Without a trade we have the following players to fill (most likely) 7 bullpen spots: Gregg, Downs, Frasor, Carlson, Accardo, Camp, Janssen, Hayhurst, Tallet, Valdez, Roenicke. Oh and Zechry Zinicola, who has to make the roster or be offered back to the Nationals. Throw in anyone that doesn't make the starting rotation like Scott Richmond. You could even throw in a wild card like Dustin McGowan, who could be healthy and doesn't have any options left. How would you like the job of picking who makes the team out of that group.
One or some of them could leave in a trade. We still could use a right fielder and Anthopoulos keeps talking about trading for a young shortstop. Relievers don't don't generally carry a lot of trade value but some of those guys have track records (Downs, Frasor), some have potential (Carlson, Roenicke, maybe Accardo) and a swing man like Tallet has value.
Bob Elliot figures there is a trade in the works for Downs. He would seem a logical choice. I know I'd miss him and any team that wanted him would have to give up more than the value of the draft picks we would get for him if he left as a free agent. He will be 34 years old in 2010 so if it will be a couple of years before we contend, moving him while his value is high would be a good thing.
Share your feeling on how it will all shake out. We are only a couple of weeks from when the pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Things could start happening quickly now.
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There has to be a trade in the works...
And if there is, I’ll be fine with the pre-emptive move. If not, I really hope he pitches well, because we have a ton of younger – and cheaper – options.
Also, Purcey and McGowan are out of options, and may each need a BP spot to avoid having to expose them to waivers, which crowds things even more.
Also, It must suck to be Accardo, Camp, Hayhurst, Janssen or Roenicke today. They must really be wondering what is going on, and where they will pitch in 2010.
Oh ya, on Townsend:
Just look at his senior year with Rice. Domination. It just goes to show, nothing is a sure thing in Baseball, especially for high-ceiling pitching prospects. Strasburg could easily go the same way. Tommy John + Labrum surgery = disappointment. Hopefully the Jays coaches can help allow a Carpenter-style comeback.
purcey isn't out of options
as far as I can tell. Can you source this?
Then I'm pretty sure Wilner's wrong
Purcey’s only been up twice
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
No...
it is option years….they can go up and down as many times in a season as the team likes and it is just one option year. Like say Accardo was up and down three times last year (guessing) but that was just one option.
The poll is missing an option
the proper choice would be the following:
WTF?
Even if a trade is in the works this makes no sense.
Hell, Shawn Camp pitched better – or at least as well – last year than Gregg’s best years (given the relative difference in competition)
Yeah you are right, that should have been an option.
I spent so long trying to figure it out, I skipped the simplest solution.
Free asset
If you’re looking at it from the angle of “does it make the Jays better in 2010”? No, I don’t think it does but I don’t think that’s the point. Actually I’m almost certain it’s not the point.
If you look at it from the angle of “does it help the Jays rebuild”? Absolutely. They can trade Downs (not a part of the future) for a prospect and if Gregg bounces back get something for him too. Remember, b/c of all his saves Gregg would have been a Type A FA if the Cubs offered him arb. If he closes for Toronto and has a bounce back year he could be a Type A again (meaning you get a 1st rounder for him), and he’d likely decline arbitration to seek a LT deal if that happens.
So what is the downside? We downgrade from say Downs or Frasor to Gregg in a year where we aren’t trying to win.
And what is the upside? We could get prospects/useful pieces for Downs or Frasor and potentially high draft pick(s) compensation for Gregg.
That’s a risk worth taking IMO.
We have different definitions of the word free....
$2.7 million, even if it isn’t a lot of money in baseball terms still is something. It could be a little less than half of the way to Johnny Damon. Paraphrasing…a million dollars here and a million dollars there and pretty soon you are talking real money.
And, course, it is an open question on whether he’ll be an asset. If he pitches like he did last year, he won’t be an asset.
My point was ...
he’s a free asset in that that didn’t have to give anything up for him compensation wise (either in the form of picks or in a trade). I’m not at all concerned about the $ of it b/c it doesn’t matter, we’re not trying to win this year, and it’s generally not the case that if the Jays saved that 2.5 million they would be allowed to spend an extra 2.5 million next year.
You have to look past the purely on-field perspective to understand what AA is trying to do here … Gregg is an asset in that if he returns to form he could very well be a type A free agent at the end of the year (which he was this year) which is worth potentially 2 first round draft picks. 2 first round draft picks to a club that’s rebuilding is absolutely HUGE.
no one gives up first round picks for the likes of Kevin Gregg. If he’s type A and we offer him arbitration his free agency is basically over at that point.
A Type B then yeah, you might get a pick there (then you have to decide if a supplemental pick is worth ~$3 mil) but we will NOT be getting two picks for Gregg.
well ...
Firstly, only half the league would have to give up a first rounder. And even for that one half of the league they could not give up a 1st for him if they sign a better A-type.
Secondly … yes they do. If he has a good season in Toronto he’ll of had 3 good years in his last 4. Obviously that’s the risk, but the downside is minimal. And if it happens I think a team will take a chance on that, especially if they would only lose a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Heck if Placido Polanco can get a multiyear deal as a type-A, anyone can IMO.
He had a hard enough time getting a contract this year without being offered arbitration.....
Of course there was no way the Cubs would have offered him arbitration and there would be no way the Jays would either. If he has a really good year, then we take his option, if he has a poor year we don’t offer.
I don't know
if I’m AA and Kevin Gregg has a solid year that generates a TypeA status and I feel pretty sure someone will sign him, I think I quit while I’m ahead and let him go. Say, for example, Gregg gets lucky and a lot of those flyballs stay in the park . . . that doesn’t mean he’ll be worth picking up the option on next year, but there are still some teams out there who think reliever ERA is important. Let them buy high on him.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Because he accepts and then you pay what the arbitrator says....
which would be far more than he’s getting this year. Look at how it worked this year…had the Cubs offered arbitration he’d have a contract in the $7 to $9 million dollar range.
He wouldn't accept it
but if he has a good year he is extremely likely to reject it, like most players his age do, so he can seek a long term deal. Obviously you don’t offer him arbitration if you think he’s going to accept it. Usually the only players who would accept it are guys too old to command a multi-year deal (i.e. Johnny Damon this year) or guys coming off a bad season (i.e. Gregg this year). If he’s 32 years old, coming off a good season and with 3 good seasons in his last 4 under his belt why wouldn’t someone give him a multi-year deal? Heck Marco Scutaro had basically a career year at 34 years old and even he rejected arbitration and got a LT deal (2 yrs + option with a solid buyout on that 3rd year).
Depends on how good his season is
I would think he’d be looking for a two-year commitment from a team, but it is possible he’d accept. Did you hear the $7M – $9M figure anywhere in particular? I can’t imagine an arbitrator would have given him that much . . . Jose Valverde is getting 14M over two years, but he is actually good.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Panic Under Pressure?
First off, I am really not understanding this pickup so much. The Jays seem like they have way too many pitchers and seem destined to start leaking them off via waivers due to a mismatch between spots and candidates.
More importantly, this kind of raises a bit of a red flag for me about “panic under pressure” behaviour. That is, when the team sees a slot open, they rush to fill it with the easiest option available, than once the role is filled realize it might not be the best choice and then look to replace. For example, consider the gaping void at shortstop left by Vespa departure. So the team ran out and extended JMac – fine, he is a great fielder – but then they signed him to a multi-year deal. Hmmm? Head scratcher. Then they ran out and signed Agon. Ok, I guess. Now we hear they are looking to trade for another shortstop? What is the team going to do with three shortstops? Why did they panic and run out to sign the most proximate alternatives if they knew it was not going to be satisfactory to organizational needs? It does not seem to be rational behaviour but more like panic under pressure.
Similarly, the team is just running out and grabbing pitchers and now has far too many BPoptions. Were the signings panic reactionary contracts? I do not get it. Is this also panic under pressure?
Perhaps there is rationale for the decision. For example, maybe the team does make a trade for a good fielding hard hitting short-stop by offering up Agon and some relief pitching. If this were to happen, it could be an upgrade for the team and we are all better off. If not, perhaps it is just panic. Tough to know until April.
Holy Panic Button, Batman!
Do you work for the Toronto Star, by any chance? Months (MONTHS) after they sign Gonza, and you’re starting that rabble train again? Rabble rabble rabble… It’s not like AA is handing out $10 million/yr contracts here, and claiming these guys to be the saviours of the franchise. Keeping good defensive back-up options under team-friendly contracts are hardly the kind of moves that scream “panic under pressure”, and signing them before other teams start in on the bidding could be considered “smart”… As for Gregg, for an insignificant amount (yes, despite the fact that the Jays are paying Gregg more than some of us will make in our lifetimes, it’s still pretty insignificant to the Jays), they have the opportunity to see if Gregg is for real. If so, they’ve locked up a pretty darn good closer for 3 years, at an average salary of $4 mil. Pretty good deal, if you ask me. And if Gregg proves that 2009 was a sign of things to come, we cut ties, and maybe even net a type B supplemental pick for our troubles. Either way, we have options… and when you’re looking to build the core of a team, options are your best friend.
Basically...
…what’s the downside? I don’t really see much, if any.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
Downside is he'll pitch like he did last year....
in the AL East, which would mean a much higher ERA. We trade Downs and/or Frasor and are left with no one that we want closing out games.
I think that’s overstating things a bit. We have Accardo, Roenicke has the right makeup for a closer, and if McGowen isn’t really ready to assume the workload of a starter yet, he’d make a very attractive closing option if he’s all the way back.
Mind you, I’m more of the Bill James school that ‘closer’ is a pointless position. I’d rather seen three guys with double digit saves than one guy with all of them, in order to always put the best matchup on the field, as opposed to an absolute ‘9th inning’ guy.
But you know Cito is going to want a closer
You know he’s not fond of Accardo and Roenicke didn’t thrill anyone in his few innings last year.
I’d rather seen three guys with double digit saves than one guy with all of them, in order to always put the best matchup on the field, as opposed to an absolute ‘9th inning’ guy.
I would rather have the one dominant guy because that is how most of the better teams do it. I think that quite often closing a game is more mental than physical. Bringing in a dominant closer just puts that much more pressure on the opposing team and affects their performance. I hold up BJ Ryan as a guy who was able to intimidate the opposing team long after his stuff was no longer that good. Once the intimidation wore off, he had nothing (except lots of Blue Jay cash)
None of the current Jays have the “aura” of the closer. Just think back to Henke. When he came in, as Jays fans, the game was over and we could relax and enjoy the final formality three outs. Downs is probably closest we have, but for some reason, he doesn’t have “it” for me. I think he is much better as the set up man. This may be the thinking behind the Gregg signing. That is, trying to find the closer so that Downs can go back to being that 8th inning guy.
I personally don’t buy the ‘cult of the closer’ myth. While it might be the prevailing wisdom in the baseball world, it doesn’t mean it is right.
Having a closer is a nice luxury; a dominant guy you can trust to get three outs in the ninth. But if you don’t have a rotation and bullpen that you’re comfortable holding a lead into the ninth with, the closer becomes a wasting spot. You’re better to use the best matchups and histories out of the bullpen depending on the situation than trust in ‘intimidation’ and the like.
I'd prefer the by committee thing
But it seems like the pitchers have bought the ‘cult of the closer’. It seems that they feel more comfortable if they know their spot in the pen.
Big Picture
In the long run, Gregg can be a reliable rubber arm who won’t hurt you. That said, he’s doesn’t have the same perceived value as Downs or Frasor, despite being a fairly similar pitcher. He’s also a year younger than Frasor, and 2 years younger than Downs.
My thought is that the Jays realized they could trade Downs or Frasor for a chip that they value better than the difference between Gregg’s 2010 production and the production of the reliever they trade. And if Gregg lights it up in the first half of this year, they can probably get something small back for him (teams always overpay for RP at the deadline).
If Frasor or Downs nets anything substantial (like a decent prospect or an upgrade in RF), I’d say this is a solid move.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
As for the current 'pen
At this point i think it will be: Gregg, Downs, Frasor, Accardo, Tallet and Camp. With Carlson and Janssen competing for the final spot. If someone is traded then Carlson and Janssen will make it.
I think that Roenicke should start the year as the closer in Vegas. Get him used to the idea of closing out games and hope he takes to it. McGowan likely will start the year on the DL and I think Purcey will either be on another team or in AAA he won’t be good enough to crack the bullpen and remain there.
That leaves Hayhurst, Valdez, and Zechry Zinicola out of jobs. I think Hayhurst can go to Vegas, Zinicola will go back to Washington or the Jays could work out a trade to keep him in their system and I think Valdez is out of options so he’d likely be lost (not a huge loss really).
All in all the signing isn’t a bad one but it doesn’t really make a lot of sense to add another player where you already have a lot of depth unless (like mentioned before) the Jays plan to deal from that depth to pick up a SS or CF/RF type.
I don't get it
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I don´t see Frasor and Downs in Jays Uniform in April...
Maybe one of them.. but not Frasor and Downs!
I agree with Dusty on DL and with Roenicke as the CL for Vegas.
Maybe we don´t need Valdez anymore now we have Gregg! Don´t believe he´ll make the team.
Hayhurst will be JoJo-man this year… believe he won´t travel north in april.
Purcey or Accardo can be a nice add in a Downs- or Frasor trade.
With Downs might be away it´s for sure we keep Tallet in the BP
by jaysfanfromeurope on Feb 3, 2010 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
I think I get it, but I don’t necessarily agree with it. Gregg is relatively cheap, provides a possible closer as well as a draft pick if we trade him or he signs with another club, and provides a durable righty in the pen for a season that is likely going to be tough on the bullpen. So from all those points, Gregg is a fairly low risk reasonable signing.
However, as has been noted, there’s already a lot of arms stockpiled for the pen. Gregg’s numbers are suspect, and there’s a good reason to believe that his 2009 numbers will be a lot more likely in the AL East than his 2007 numbers. Plus, there’s no reason to think that any of our other righty options wouldn’t do the same job for a quarter of the price.
So, yeah, I get it. And it makes even more sense if AA is shopping a significant package around for a SS, and that includes a combination of Downs or Frasor being moved. I just don’t like Gregg’s metrics at all, and think we’re going to get something closer to Benitez than we are Camp.
almost $3 million
doesn’t seem all that cheap to me for a pitcher of Gregg’s quality. If we trade Downs and Frasor, wouldn’t you rather see Roenicke and/or Accardo get the chance to close and pitch late innings than Gregg? I would.
I don’t hate the move, exactly, I just don’t really see the point.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
As I said, I don’t see a reason that our other options couldn’t do the job for a quarter of the price. However, even though I don’t agree with the decision, I can see the reasons that the club feels it makes sense to do. If they believe that Gregg can be effective as a closer, $3mil isn’t a lot for that position. If they think that even if he implodes or if trade value is there that it could net a draft pick or a decent return, again, $3mil isn’t much to risk against that kind of return.
Personally, I think Gregg is going to be awful, but I have to be fair and say the move isn’t a bewildering one.
If they believe that Gregg can be effective as a closer, $3mil isn’t a lot for that position. If they think that even if he implodes or if trade value is there that it could net a draft pick or a decent return, again, $3mil isn’t much to risk against that kind of return.
sure. but why would they think Gregg would be a more effective option than what they already have? And at least Roenicke will be under team control for several more years, so there are developmental reasons to give him the late innings rather than Gregg.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Obviously they must not think Roenicke is ready to step into the role, or they don’t necessarily have confidence that Accardo, Frasor or Downs will be available or a lock on the position for the whole year. Or, they see something in Gregg beyond the stats that they think he’s got a shot at harnessing in 2010. If it doesn’t work out, or if he ends up being just a decently effective middle reliever, he’s a potential asset to trade or get picks from.
I think it really comes down to a decision being based on information we just don’t have; be it trade packages, player development issues or organizational depth. I can’t see them doing it, especially with the money involved, just for the sake of doing it.
sure, I don't disagree with you at all
I just don’t get it, based on the (admittedly limited) information to which I have access.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
What’s going to be interesting is to see what kind of weight spring training is going to have for some of the guys in the bullpen. It’s very possible we could have a bullpen with only a couple of names from the start of last year involved.
This isn’t entirely improbable:
Gregg – closer
Carlson
Camp
Roenicke
Zinicola
Valdez
Tallet
if you thing you had a wtf reaction
i wonder what Accardo’s was!! another hat in the garbage?
I’ve got a nasty 65mph fastball with some late movement on it and a 60mph changeup that will fool them…maybe I’ll get a shot?
I can do an Eephus pitch like Pascual Perez. I got nothing else though…
I loved the Eephus pitch playing MLB on XBox
It was my strike out pitch.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Feb 3, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
I created the greatest rookie ever. He threw a knuckler, a forkball, an eephus pitch and a palm ball. I named him Lee Wakefield.
You should have also given him a 98 mph fastball.
A 98 mph pastball after a couple eephus’ (ephi?) would seem like 150 mph. They would be swinging after the ball has been thrown back to the pitcher.
Ohhh Brett...One more year! One more year! One more year!
Superbowl Prediction - Colts 41 Saints 23
by craig in calgary on Feb 3, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Bob Elliott link broken, try this
That link to the Bob Elliott column doesn’t work for me, but found this one instead.
As for Gregg, I’ll echo the view of many people here by saying it’s a low-risk signing with good potential upside in on-field performance and return in players down the road. Good job AA.
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