Make your predictions: First Base, Lyle Overbay and Someone.

by Tom Dakers on Feb 6, 2010 1:00 PM EST in Fun Comment 7 comments

I figured Lyle would be traded this off season but we are 10 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting and he is still on the roster. We took a close look at Lyle's 2009 season back here. In short, he hit right handers great (.282/.396/.509) and lefties (.190/.256/.278) not at all. He needs a platoon partner. I'd like to see him batting near the top of the order against RHP, but Cito seems to think Jose Bautista should be there. Lyle is 33 this year. Lyle's 2009:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Lyle Overbay	132	423	57	112	35	1	16	64	74	95	0	0	.265	.372	.466

Bill James sees Lyle hitting .267/.359/.443, with 15 homers, 63 RBI and 34 doubles in 525 plate appearances.

CHONE has him .257/.345/.410, with 14 homers, 58 RBI and 26 doubles in 521 PA.

We looked at the other possibilities at first here, but the main ones are:

Randy Ruiz, Cito didn't seem to like the idea of him playing first last year but his mind might change. He's 32 this season. He also could get at bats at DH. Last year Ruiz hit

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Randy Ruiz	33	115	25	36	7	0	10	17	10	35	1	1	.313	.385	.635

Pretty decent, eh? Usual small sample size warnings. Ghostrunner on First has a graph showing he chased down and off the plate a lot. Pitchers would likely try to exploit that in he played more but then he'd hopefully try to correct that too.

Bill James figures him to hit .294/.352/.517 with 9 homers, 31 RBI in 194 PA.

CHONE .255/.315/.448 with 21 homers, 68 RBI in 502 PA.

If we could mix James batting line with CHONE's playing time, we got something.

Brian Diporak could also end up with some playing time at first. Bill James doesn't think so but CHONE has him at .240/.288/.397 with 14 homers, 53 RBI in 444 PA. I don't know how he'd get up to the plate that many times hitting like that but ok.

Brett Wallace could also see playing time, especially if he hits as well at Vegas as I think he will.

Bill James sees him hitting .278/.331/.427 with 17 homers, 69 RBI in 544 PA.

CHONE .252/.306/.395 with 15 homers, 55 RBI in 527 PA.

So give us your guesses at who will play and how they will hit. We should end up with between 650 and 700 PA out of each position but some of these guys could see time at DH so it could add up to more PA.

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I say he gets traded before the season starts

by Joey P on Feb 6, 2010 1:34 PM EST reply actions

Clearly Wallace is "Da Man"

But – when?

I think as soon as he no longer qualifies as a “super two” the kid comes up. Unless Overbay and his platoon partner RighthandedbatRuiz orDopriak are tearing up the league in which case he could stay down until September.

Brett plays over 90% of 2010 at the age of 23 (born August 26th 1986) so if we bring up in June – when he no longer could be a “super two” then we would “own” him until the end of 2016 at the end of which he’ll be 30 – so we get him cheap for three years then cheapish for three more – for what amounts to the most part of his “prime.”

Production wise, over his career – he’ll be somewhere between Overbay and Olerud. Hopefully more of Johnny O’.

by Mylegacy on Feb 6, 2010 1:48 PM EST reply actions

He won't be Overbay

If he puts up #s predicted by CHONE & Bill James in his first year. But you never know. He can be the next Todd Helton or as that other dude projected, a Lyle Overbay.

HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!

by BenjiDoc on Feb 6, 2010 4:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

chone et al

I don’t think they capture the platoon aspect do they? they project his numbers as if he were to face RHP 80% of the time instead of LHP 100% of the time.

by ayjackson on Feb 6, 2010 2:40 PM EST reply actions