Make your predictions: Aaron Hill
by Tom Dakers on Feb 8, 2010 11:26 AM EST
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PrintNo one figured Aaron Hill to have the season he did last year. I took a look back at our predictions from last season and no guessed him to have more than 15 homers, which made a lot of sense since he a total of 28 home runs in his four year career up until then. Add in that he was coming back after missing most of 2008 with a concussion. In fact I made a lot of fun of a TSN TV commentator who called Hill our franchise player before season. That turned out to be far closer to the truth than any of us thought.
We took a detailed look at Hill's season here. He turns just 28 in March so he's still young. Here is his batting line from last year:
Bill James figures him to have 580 PA, a .283/337/.800 batting line, 20 homers and 76 RBI.
CHONE sees almost exactly the same line: 596 PA, .282/.332/.453, 21 homers and 75 RBI.
So give us your predictions for how our favorite second baseman will hit this year. Give us PA, slash line, homers, RBI and anything else you can see in his near future.
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Hill's year
625 PA
.303/.340/.490
32 Hr’s 92 RBI’s
…and a Gold FREAKING Glove.
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Feb 8, 2010 12:01 PM EST reply actions
I’m going to say he’s roughly in line with the James except for the slugging. I think he’ll be right around 30HRs. I know all of his power is down left field, but so what? The thing that impresses me most with both Hill and Lind is both of them have fantastically quick wrists. I think a lot of Hill’s strikeout problems is that he’s going after stuff that he sometimes can get around fast enough on to drive. Both of these guys are still filling out too, so see last year as less of a fluke and more of a high water mark.
I think his batting average at the start of the year was fluke
i dont see him batting over .280 to be honest.
Onions Baby Onions
I Disagree
As mentioned, fantastically quick wrists. I think he’ll be a little like Guerrero in that he’ll put a lot of balls in play in the zone, and more than a few outside, but the downside will be few walks and a lot of strikeouts.
He’s really shaping up as a quality five spot hitter.
I'll say the same as you. I might add 30 PA to bump it to 620, cause Cito likely won't sit him much.
my objectivity was somewhat tainted by the year-over-year PA declines predicted by James and CHONE. I am guessing they expect that a weaker Jays offense will provide fewer ops for Hill to step into the batter’s box.
yea, 682 to 590 is a big decline (about 15% ish, eyeballin) but it allows for weaker team offense and maybe some injury time
that’s 682 AT BATS which is NOT the same as plate appearances.
A lot of people to this point in the thread are projecting AB but calling them PA
how do you know what other people are projecting?
it’s possible that they’re hedging bets based on some injury time (I know I did). Look at 2006, a season in which Aaron Hill saw 606 plate appearances over 155 games (and he started 152 of them). Sure, he was hitting lower in the lineup than he did in 09, but I think he should hit lower in 2010 than he did 09 as well.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
How do I know?
Because the first post in this string says:
590 PA
.285/.333/.450
22 HRs / 82 RBIs
And the one just above mine (both posted by the same guy) says:
“yea, 682 to 590 is a big decline”
And we know that Hill had 682 AT BATS in 2009.
Thus, he cross referenced a projection of plate appearances with at bats. It is certainly possible he just slipped up and meant to use the 720+ figure Tom refers to but it seemed likely he was mixing the terms.
What you did isn’t relevant because I said “to this point in the thread” which means I wasn’t referring to posts below the one which started this string.
right
that’s one person. But you said “A Lot of people” which to me certainly carries a connotation of more than one person.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I referenced what I did
not in order to prove you wrong, but just to show an example that I figured some folks could be doing.
Additionally, my projection was made on 8 February 8:16 PM EST, your post was made 9 Feb 3:42 AM EST. Why would “to this point” not include my projection?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Whoa, wait a minute.
When did BBB get Twitter?
http://twitter.com/bluebirdbanter
Who maintains it?
It can’t be Tom, he doesn’t even know how to say Twitter and it can’t be Hugo because Hugo doesn’t watch Football.
Jesse?
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Feb 8, 2010 1:41 PM EST reply actions
Did SBnation make you do it? to link to posts and whatnot?
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
hehe “suggested”
All I can picture is a scene out of a Mobster movie with a bunch of guys holding baseball bats with little SB nation logos on their shirts showing up at Tom’s door and telling him “a twitter account would be a good idea because bad things happen to blogs without twitter accounts and we wouldn’t want anything bad to happen to you capish?”
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Is that really gonna stick around all season???
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Heh I don’t really mind, I was just surprised it was sticking :)
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
that's exactly what happened
except it’s spelled “capisci?”. And to paraphrase Steve Martin, It hurts my eyes when you spell it!
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I can only spell Italian words
in Italian, spelling is easy. Everything is spelled the way it sounds, more or less uniformly.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
now grammar -
that’s where I can really get pedantic. But I try not to subject my fellow banterers to that.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
do you have to sign up as a follower? or something like that? I must admit I am not a huge user of twitter although I do have an account. Mostly, it just seems to be another source of spam. LOL
yeah you have to hit follow....
search for bluebirdbanter and there will be a follow button. It is pretty much only our story titles that come up on it.
seeing as
my band has a song called “Too Old to Twitter” it feels hypocritical to twitter, so I don’t. Well, that and the laziness. Ahhh, the laziness.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
607 PA
.288 BA
28 HRs
90 RBIs
.350 OBP
.490 Slugging
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!
by BenjiDoc on Feb 8, 2010 1:44 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I really see 2010 as Hill's age 27 season, since he missed his #26... that being said, he will emerge as a perrenial top 5 2B
590 PA
.300/.340/.485/.825, 26 HR, 40 2B, +10 Defence
His RBI totals will go way down, unless he hits in the 5 hole, where he should be.
Although...
I think he got a TON of protection hitting in front of Lind all season, so, unless Snider emerges as a major power threat (likely) and hits in the 6 hole behind Hill, the 5 hole may not be his spot at all.
i'm thinking along these lines. too
630PA
.307/.353/.470, 28 HR, 87 RBI
Hill
190 hits
.285/.340/.480
28 HRs
Solid year less Homers more doubles. Good year for a Second Basemen
Does anybody have an idea as for how's the batting order is going to look like?
It seems like it has an effect on our predictions for the batters, so does anyone have an educated guess/wish?
Festina Lente
This is what I would do... but Cito won't
vs LHP
BAUTISA RF
ENCARNACION 3B
LIND DH
RUIZ 1B
HILL 2B
WELLS CF
SNIDER LF
BUCK C
GONZALEZ SS
OVERBAY
PHILLIPS
JMAC
MCCOY
vs RHP
OVERBAY 1B
HILL 2B
LIND LF
RUIZ DH
SNIDER RF
WELLS CF
ENCARNACION 3B
BUCK C
GONZALEZ SS
BAUTISTA
JMAC
PHILLIPS
MCCOY
My try...
620 PA .310//.355//.490 23 HR, 75 RBI, 110 R
I love the amount of liners this guy hits and if he puts some more balls in play i think he will have his best statistical season to date.
Not over .300. and 30 HR.
I see him at .280/.340/.475 with 25HR, 90RBI.
Given that our current talent doesn’t really work for moving Hill down to the 5 or 6 hole that would best suit him – I predict he’ll hit second again.
(who else is Cito going to be willing to put there – wait, if Bautista is leading off vs RHP it might be Gonzalez for all i know)
Anyway, assuming that:
665 AB, 48 doubles, 25 homers, 50 BB, .295/.344/.480/.824
it is hard to imagine the leaps of logic it would take to write Gonzalez' name into the 2 slot.
But if Cito is happy with Bautista playing RF and leading off everyday then anything is possible.
remember that
Scutaro is not with us anymore so i guesstimate his RBIs will drop drastically but still maintain his power
i would put:
.275/.345/.480 27HR, 70-80RBIs
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