Hi everyone.  We're still facing some serious snow issues, with another 10-20 inches of snow apparently on the way today.  I'm enjoying the snow, but thinking about baseball does remind me that spring is just around the corner. 

Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski has been running through mlb teams in reverse alphabetical order, so the Blue Jays are one of the last teams, and not one of the prettier ones, in his annual ZIPS projections, which he prefaces by saying:

In my opinion, you're looking at the 5th-place team in the AL East. There's just not enough upside, at least in 2010, in the offense and while the team has legitimate players at every position, that's not enough in this division. The rotation already had serious issues before losing Roy Halladay, with essentially every other 2006-2008 starter being injured and the loss of Doc really blows a short-term hole in the pitching staff. After the injury crew, there are simply questions marks of another kind, from Ricky Romero having serious problems in the Eastern League just a year ago and Marc Rzepczynski's control issues.

The Anthopoulos regime is going to have problems if they try to do any quick fixes. The team can contend, but it's going to need a long-term plan.

Here are some of the, ahem, highlights (to see the full stats you will have to view the post in expanded view by clicking through to comments or, better yet, just going to BTF):

Name                      AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K   OPS+ 
Adam Lind*               .277  .339  .488 152 582  84 161 38  2 27 102  53 119     117 
Aaron Hill               .275  .323  .447 131 528  72 145 32  1 19  73  36  82     103 
Lyle Overbay*            .251  .339  .416 130 442  56 111 29  1 14  57  59  95     100 
Travis Snider*           .231  .322  .434 128 429  56  99 22  1 21  60  55 144      99 
Vernon Wells             .260  .314  .430 128 507  70 132 29  3 17  69  40  73      96 
Jarrett Hoffpauir        .264  .331  .394 128 436  56 115 26  2  9  55  42  50      93 
Edwin Encarnacion        .233  .317  .397 132 464  68 108 23  1 17  72  50 103      89 
Jose Bautista            .227  .324  .389 129 414  68  94 21  2 14  60  56 109      89 
Randy Ruiz               .239  .301  .414 131 502  64 120 27  2 19  73  37 146      88 
Brett Wallace*           .246  .314  .385 134 525  75 129 23  1 16  63  38 135      85 
Jeremy Reed*             .274  .320  .386 139 368  53 101 19  2  6  43  24  51      84 
Joey Gathright*          .258  .327  .302 120 368  50  95  9  2  1  24  32  62     70 
Kyle Phillips*           .244  .297  .338  95 352  30  86 15  0  6  35  25  73      69 
Brian Dopirak            .227  .275  .371 127 498  48 113 25  1 15  63  32 147      70 
Sea Bass Gonzalez        .231  .277  .354 107 376  39  87 17  1  9  39  21  79     67 
Raul Chavez              .246  .285  .338  61 195  19  48  9  0  3  22   9  31      66 
J.P. Arencibia           .222  .258  .370 116 465  48 103 25  1 14  58  20 133      65 
John McDonald            .232  .271  .323  85 198  22  46 10  1  2  18   9  29     58

Ouch. Travis Snider already more or less had that season in 2009, so I have to think he'll be able to do a little bit better in 2010 than ZIPS does, though he'll absolutely have to improve on his K rates. I also think ZIPS is a little pessimistic on Lind, who put up much better numbers than that last year (I don't see him dropping 40 points of OBP) where he essentially put up superstar numbers at 25. FWIW, the 3 projections systems available on Fangraphs all like Lind better, though Marcel's is close. ZIPS has never really liked Aaron Hill much but now at least it respects his power somewhat. I think it's fair to say they're still selling him a bit short, though. Finally, I think a healthy Vernon Wells may overperform his projection, and perhaps the same can be said of Encarnacion - though when wrist surgery in the offseason is cause for optimism, that's pretty sad. If Encarnacion doesn't improve, there is absolutely no reason he should be seeing starting time in the major leagues, given his poor defense. Hoffpair would be better there if the projections are accurate, accounting for defense.

On the other hand, ZIPS thinks that our minor league bats aren't quite ready for the big time and SS is looking hideous.
And when Overbay has been healthy, he's always been a better-than-average bat, so unless he regresses big time, he could be better than this too.

Pitching numbers are after the break: