Poll: Who would you pick to be the last man on the bench?
by Tom Dakers on Mar 16, 2010 3:21 PM EDT
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PrintPresuming that Encarnacion's wrist improves enough to start the season (might be a big presumption) our bench probably would be Jose Molina, Randy Ruiz, John McDonald and someone else, likely to be Jeremy Reed, Joey Gathright or Mike McCoy. Of course, I'm also presuming the team takes Travis Snider north, but Cito did seem to suggest that would happen.
Reed has played all three outfield spots in his 6 year major league career. He is 29, was a second round draft pick in 2002 and has hit .255/.312/.357. So far this spring he's hitting .391/.440/.478.
Joey Gathright has also played all three outfield spots in hit 6 year career. He's also 29, was a 32nd round draft pick in 2001. Career batting line is .263/.327/.303. He's hitting .150/.190/.150 in just 20 at bats this spring.
Mike McCoy has only had a few major league at bats. He is 29 as well, in the minors he has played every position except first and catcher. He has even pitched. This spring he's hitting .615/.688/.692 in just 13 at bats.
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I voted Gathright
Why?
1) For me it’s McCoy over McDonald or not at all. He’s a SS who can play elsewhere, but we don’t NEED someone who can play 2b, 3b or SS if you are already carrying McDonald, nor do we need another 1b or C. We need an OF on the bench. So I don’t see why you take the guy who isn’t a regular OF and who has hit less than the other 2 in his minor league career.
2) On Reed vs Gathright, this is another sort of six of one half -dozen of the other scenario’s … Reed has more power, but defensively Gathright gets the edge. IF this is a bench spot, I say give it to Gathright who can do a little more such as pinch run, come in defensively and probably much more adept at handling CF in case Vernon gets hurt .
All that said, If Snider goes to AAA and it’s a platoon spot opened up (assuming Lind in LF and Ruiz at DH is not happening), I would say carry them both and Reed gets the starts over Gathright. I see Gathright as more of a guy who can be an asset off the bench b/c of his glove and speed, whereas Reed is a better fit for a more regular spot or maybe an NL spot where the pinch hitter is used a bit more, that is if he can ever hit in the majors.
Bottom line I guess is, defense translates better from the minors to the majors than hitting. Reed has to outhit Gathright to match his value, and I’m not going to bank that he absolutely will. For a bench spot, go with the stuff like speed and D, especially considering the team’s regular OF clearly lacks them.
I'm pretty sure Jeremy Reed is a better outfielder than Joey Gathright
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Every scouting report I’ve seen says Reed is not a great athlete, is more a fringe CF with an okay arm in RF. Gathright, however, covers a ton of ground out there.
Statistically, UZR/150 for their careers:
Reed: 0.5
Gathright: 10.3 .. that’s very, very, VERY good
hmmm
Sean Smith has Reed as 5 runs above average career (9 TZ, -6 OFarm, +2 Positional) and Gathright as 8 runs below average career (2 TZ, -11 OFarm, +1 Positional). Their minor-league UZR favors Reed as well.
Regardless, UZR figures are generally considered subject to a three full season sample size for any sort of significance. Anyway, career UZR/150 in CF:
Reed: +1.9 Gathright: +8.5
I think there is a lot of noise in the data here, so to say that Reed’s bat needs to make up for Gathright’s additional value in the field is not quite right. Gathright’s faster, but I don’t think he’s necessarily any better in the outfield.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
McCoy
Not because I know he is the best option, but Reed and Gathright have shown us what they can do and it isn’t a whole lot to write about.
We don’t know what McCoy can or can’t do at the majors and he has a very good track record in the minors. But then maybe we do need a proven outfielder. It is a tough call.
Yeah that's where I sit
Gathright and Reed seem to have proven that the don’t belong in the majors. If the choice is the 3 of them, I’d let McCoy prove he doesn’t belong there too. All three have speed enough to be a pinch runner. And I think all three could do a reasonable job defensively. Gathright might be the fastest but he gets caught stealing too much for my liking. Reed doesn’t steal much but seems like a good runner.
I don’t get that argument. … but that argument, give the job to me. I haven’t proven I don’t belong in the majors either. McCoy hasn’t proven he deserves a shot by never hitting outside of a mile above sea level in his entire minor league career. Gathright and Reed at least proved they deserved a shot by hitting, and in Gathright’s case fielding.
Reed is not a good runner. Socuting reports from back when he was a prospect all suggest he’s not very athletic at all, and stole bases more on reading pitchers than actually being fast. Down the 1st base line he was clocked at being an average runner overall. Vs. Gathright, who even if he’s slowed a step was one of the fastest players in the game.
Yeah I suggested everyone who hasn't played in the majors should get a chance.....
ummmm no. I suggested that of three players, two have played in the majors and didn’t get within throwing distance of being replacement level so since the third has speed, is a good defensive player, plays more positions, and is having a good spring, tho in very limited at bats: I’d give him the job, at the moment. Maybe the next two weeks will change things but if it is a job for someone to win at camp, he’s the one winning.
Anyway, long enough argument.
My point was the argument that a player with an otherwise inferior track record should get the job b/c he hasn’t gotten the chance doesn’t make sense in general. I don’t disagree with many of the points in favour of McCoy, but the idea that his not having had a shot is somehow a positive in his favour … I don’t buy it. That was my point.
And yes i understand that it’s not the ONLY positive in his favour. But still, if you said you’d take McCoy b/c he’s a SS, b/c he’s faster, b/c he’s more versatile and b/c the sky is blue … I’d probably take issue with that last point as well. Not having a major league track record is not a point in his favour, IMO.
Fair enough
But having a terrible major league track record is a point each against Gathright and Reed.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Only if there up against someone who has a GOOD one, not if they’re up against someone who doesn’t have one.
Given with 3 choices, 2 proven unfavourable, and 1 that maybe could go either way. I’d take the chance on the one that goes either way.
Is it a positive trait for McCoy? Not really, but it makes him seem the better option.
Ball.
I guess my point is, to clarify: people seem to be suggesting that a guy who could not hit in the minors (McCoy’s track record outside of a small sample above sea level in a hitters league was terrible) has a better chance of hitting in the majors than guys who HAVE hit in the minors but have yet to hit in the majors. I disagree.
McCoy's ofensive calue has nothing to do with altitude or bandbox ballparks...
A high AVG and OBP the PCL does not (help) make. It helps with SLG and HRs.
Don’t act like the great year McCoy had in 2009 was due to the PCL effect. That is intellectually dishonest.
Never mind that he absolutely raked, played great defence and stole a bunch of bases in the MEX winter league (under Nick Leyva, who actually recommended him for the spot).
A great defender speed does not make. Same goes for base stealers. McCoy was still in his prime in 2009, and still could be now. We just don’t know. Maybe we should find out.
I never said it helped his walks, but it most certainly DOES help batting average which pushes up OBP, and helps SLG. It tends to boost everything b/c not only does the ball fly easier, but less resistance kills the break of breaking pitches. They tend to flatten out, and get hit.
Just look at the Rox … last 3 years, team home/away splits for avg:
home: 287/278/298
away: 235/249/261
That’s a pretty big different each year.
And it’s not intellectually dishonest. Colorado is a mile above sea level, very easy to hit in. PCL is a hitters league, lots of small parks. Look at McCoy’s career:
2005 678ops
2006 650ops
2007 677ops
2008 – before Col 727ops
2008 – in Col 908ops
2009 – in Col 807ops
Come on. Lets be realistic here. The guy doesn’t hit a lick until he happens to play in an easy league in a easy place to hit and you say it’s intellectually dishonest to suggest that that’s why his numbers jumped?!?
My argument for McCoy
is also based on the fact that if McCoy proves he can’t play in the majors, then I don’t think it would be hard to replace him with someone else.
We are talking about a dime a dozen backup fielder here, not starting players.
I still say McCoy gets the role until he proves otherwise. McCoy could turn out to be a good role player for the Jays.
Yeah it shouldn't be hard to get a replacement level player.
there should be a few on the waiver wire before the start of the season.
This year is also supposed to be about building assets. Gathright and Reed are not assets. McCoy probably isn’t either, but has a better chance of being an asset if things go his way.
Same thing for guys like Ruiz, Tallet, Eveland, Frasor, Downs, Gregg.
absolutely true.
mccoy could wind up filling our UTIL role for years, at the minimum, if successful. if reed/gathright succeed, they go to arb. in the off-season, no?
HE HAS POSSIBLE UPSIDE FOR THE FRANCHISE. that’s good enough for me.
DFA gathright/reed as soon as the ST injury window closes (as long as mccoy keeps it up).
What “very good track record in the minors”? He was absolutely horrific until the past year or so while playing in the PCL (tremendous hitters league) in Colorado, well above sea level.
horrific?
The last three year OBP for McCoy: .364, .376, .405. Might not be the best in the world but not horrific.
Horrific outside of Colorado .. absolutely. Even with Colorado his career minor league line is:.270-.369-.360, and that SLG could easily be inflated by playing in Colorado, before that he was struggling to crack .300 SLG.
And compared to Reed and Gathright’s minor league track records, those #‘s aren’t good at all. Gathright’s minor league obp was .395. Reed’s was .388. So if you are using minor league OBP as the only measuring stick of value, give the job to Gathright. But that’s silly to use that as the only measurement.
McCoy seems to have the most upside...
But that’s probably not actually the case. Either way, he’s the fun choice here.
If my nose was full of nickels I would blow it all on you.
Too Early
I think this is a poll that would be better the week before the opening. We’ll get to see a lot more of Reed, McCoy, and Gathright between now and then. If you’re going by the numbers up to now, McCoy brings the most versitility, defense and speed with the best bat. His biggest minus is a lack of major league experience, but again, Inglett suffered similar issues and had a very solid year in his first shot.
“if you’re going by the numbers up to now, McCoy brings the most versitility, defense and speed with the best bat.”
Versatility – absolutely.
Defense – in the INF absolutely, in the OF that’s Gathright
Speed – depends on what you mean, speed vs SB … if SB, yes
Best bat – he has the worst bat in the minors by a considerable margin, Reed hit the best, then Gathright
If you value the versatility he brings and want to vote for him b/c of that, so be it. Agree to disagree there. But to call him a better hitter and defender (sort of, but sort of not) than the other two, that just doesn’t make sense to me.
I was talking about so far this spring. Gathright isn`t hitting, is dead meat trying to steal, and hasn`t particularly shown much steller defense. Reed is hitting, but is a few steps behind McCoy and is not much of a stolen base threat. As for defense, McCoy on the bench lets you do all sorts of additional things that Reed or Gathright don`t, especially if you`re going to mix and match with Bautista.
So, yeah, he`s a better hitter this spring and a more valuable defensive asset.
Ah … okay. I wouldn’t hand out jobs based solely on spring b/c you’re really only talking about a tiny sample, which is why I assumed you meant overall.
As for his versatility, I just don’t see what he brings that McDonald doesn’t already. That’s why I say I’m fine w/ McCoy over McDonald + an OF, but both are redundant. Ruiz is the #1 pinch hitter, McDonald is the #1 INF sub, Molina is the catcher … so what you need is an OF. You’ve already got three 3b, two SS and two 2b on the team. I don’t doubt at ALL that McCoy would add to the depth at every one of those positions … but how valuable is that? How often is the 3rd SS or 4th 3b going to be needed where the DL isn’t involved?
Well, he hits well which Gathright doesn`t. He steals bases, which Reed doesn`t. He plays six positions, where Reed and Gathright play three. Plus, you already, in theory, have four primary OFs on the team; Lind, Wells, Snider, Bautista. So in a bench position, you`re looking for depth, pinch hitting and baserunning opportunities. You`re not going to pinch hit with Gathright, you`re not going to pinch run with Reed, and neither Bautista, Wells or Snider is going to merit a defensive replacement in late innings. Since McCoy only trails both Gathright and Reed in terms of defensive ability in the outfield, he would appear to be the more balanced option.
So, based on the assumption of this lineup and the performance in spring training, I think it is reasonable to say that McCoy should be the first choice. But, I go back to my initial point that it is still too early in the spring to judge it yet.
McCoy
cuz when we have almost all our pitching staff tired by midseason.
he comes in pitches a hitless complete game and……
oh wait
PLAYOFFS
McCoy is dominating this thing
wonder who the “other” choice is.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'm curious too....
I’m thinking there might be a decent outfielder put on waivers before the start of the season, maybe that’s what the ones voting other are thinking.
Or, you know, we could likely trade for Brad Wilkerson.
who Marcum struck out today, btw
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Dopirak could easily be the "other"
Bautista is versatile enough to move into the infield when an infielder needs a break. In that case, you throw Lind in the field. If someone in the OF needs a break, again, you throw Lind out there. Then you got 2 possible big bats off the bench (Ruiz/Dopirak).
Emaus a possible other choice, as well as Lubanski.
I kind of miss Inglett, to be honest. He has career OBP around .350 and he’s a supersub kind of guy that can play IF and OF if necessary.
Oh well, whoever it is shouldn’t get any more than 200 AB anyway, since they won’t be platooning. May as well as get someone who can pinch hit late in the game for McDonald/Gonzalez.
Dopirak and Ruiz are just too similar for me to imagine both making the team
maybe if Ruiz were playing everyday you could make a case for carrying Dopirak too, but I just don’t see room for both of them.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
ya, well I could see a case for a Gathright then, used mostly for pinch running late in games.
McDonald was used as a pinch runner a lot last year, and as much as I like the guy, he’s not the greatest runner.
you are so right on inglett. i cant believe they bumped him off the 40-man and not one of the sean henn types
there was a clear spot for him this season, unlike last, but they exposed him to waivers. maybe because they had mccoy, but inglett has a MLB track record, and a good one at that. AND he is a LH bat.
still dont get that move.
I picked McCoy
For a few reasons:
1) If (and this is a big if at least for me because I haven’t seen any data on it, anecdotal or otherwise) his OF defense is anything above terrible, he’s the most versatile. With only 4 bench spots, with EE in questionable health, and with some questionable options elsewhere (e.g. Bautista, JMac) it would be nice to have somebody who could potentially back up 2B, 3B, SS, and LF. I don’t know for sure that McCoy can do that but I thought I read that it was a possibility.
2) People talk about Gathright’s speed, but McCoy seems to have a significantly better track record in terms of SB% (again, I haven’t crunched numbers, this is just from reading posts). This to me suggests he gets a good jump and has decent baserunning instincts, both of these being a lot more important than raw speed over short distances. If we’re talking utility as a pinch runner, based on this I would say McCoy is probably a better choice, or certainly no worse.
3) If McCoy makes the team and struggles I don’t see Cito having a lot of trouble sending him packing and looking somewhere else. Gathright, however, I can see easily falling into Cito’s “proven veteran,” “professional hitter” meme, basically meaning that no matter how bad he is we’ll never get rid of him. Basically, I feel that Gathright could easily be this season’s Mencherson/Millucci, particularly since we haven’t signed anyone else who really fits the mold, and I don’t know if I can bear it.
Should Snider even make the team?
Look, I know Snider is a building block and spring stats apparently don’t mean anything, but should he even make the team? He just seems a little behind with his swing and such. Why not keep both McCoy and Gathright? Or Reed and Gathright? Send Snider down with specific instructions to work on his swing and defense and, if he improves in a month, bring Snider up. Giving him a spot he clearly hasn’t earned at all this Spring training sends the wrong message to young players.
I'm not writing Snider off.
Who’s says I am? All I’m saying is that Snider is starting very slowly. So, sending him down for a month with specific instructions to work on might not be the worse thing in the world. Struggling at the MLB level when he still has options is not smart. Send him down, have him gain some momentum, then call him up later would be much better. Also, guys like McCoy and Reed are working their butts off to make this team. Having Snider, scuffing now, beat them out sends the wrong message.
Maybe I value ST a lot more than others.
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