What's the worst that could happen?
by Tom Dakers on Mar 19, 2010 12:02 PM EDT
in Analysis
23 comments
We have a team picked by most of the experts to finish last in our division, some that think we'll lose more than 100 games. I don't think we'll be all that bad, personally. The media tends to down play the Jays at the best of times. While I don't think we are going to contend or anything, I think we could finish in the mid 70's for wins.
So if we give in that we aren't going to be battling for a playoff spot, what is really the worst that could happen this year?
- Injuries. Particularly to pitchers. I could gladly go the whole year without hearing the words Tommy John or frayed...well anything really. That frayed word seems to always mean really bad things. I am hoping that Cito is gentle with his pitchers. I wouldn't mind if we go the season without a complete game and I'd be happy if none of the pitchers go much past 110 pitches in a game. I'd like him to go with a straight 5 man rotation and let everyone get an extra day rest when we have off days.
- Certain players getting rushed to the majors. There will be a fair bit of pressure to bring up Kyle Drabek. Show the fans what we got back for Doc. Especially if Doc is leading the Cy Young race in the NL and if our starters don't do as well as we hope or if we have some injuries. The absolute earliest I'd like to see Drabek (or for that matter Stewart) is September. Hitters I'm not so worried about them coming up early. Brett Wallace I wouldn't mind seeing this year, JP Arencibia I'd like to see. Even Adeninis Hechavarria, if he were to show that he could handle things.
- Maybe the worst thing that could happen is we somehow hang around the edge of the playoff race and we end up trading prospects for someone that could help us now. I don't think this could or would happen but it would be bad. Now if we packaged prospects to get prospects, I wouldn't mind. We do seem heavy on the pitching prospects and light on outfield and third base prospects. I wouldn't mind a little reorganizing.
- If attendance goes way way down and Rogers has a fit and pulls more money out of the team, that would be up there on the worst list. I'm sure Rogers has been warned that we won't be filling the stands this year but still, Rogers is a corporate animal and you never know what way the wind will blow.
- Vernon Wells doesn't improve on last year. No matter what he does he won't get the worst of the fans off his back, but it would help if he had a better season. He doesn't need 30 homers or 120 RBI (but then it couldn't hurt), but a clear step up from last year would help a lot.
- Not exchanging some of our veterans for prospect by the trade deadline. We don't have to dump them all, I wouldn't mind seeing them keep Downs. And some could be Type A or B free agents, we might not get more in a trade than the value of the draft choices we pick.
- Not signing our top draft choices would be very bad, we have 9 high picks this year. It would be very bad if Rogers pulled back the money we need to sign them. This is a good chance to add a lot of depth to our system. Can't miss out on it.
- Impatience by Cito and Alex. They have to let the young guys play even if they have bad streaks. Travis Snider not playing a full time role would be bad and sending him or really any of the young guys down because of a few bad games would be just dumb. A couple of years ago Adam Lind had 19 poor at bats and the team sent him down to play Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench. They can't do that this year. Commit to using the young guys and stick with it. If we are stuck watching Joey Gathright play, I'll be very unhappy.
What do you all think?
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Or you know
Trading prospects for Kevin Millar. If we wanted to go with the absolute worst thing that could happen.
Ball.
by Casusby on Mar 19, 2010 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Right on Tom
Lots of good stuff in there. I have really high hopes for this season. Not so much the final results in the standings (though 75+ wins would be nice) I am more excited to watch our young guys develop.
I plan to attend a lot of ball game this year. I work for Rogers so tickets are always easy to come by for me and work is real good about letting me get away to the games.
Expect to see a lot of my name posting over the months to come.
I don't work for media side but...
I did bring it up in a seminar with some media people the other day. It blows me away we can’t get better coverage for ST. We have Leafs TV, Raptor TV but no Blue Jays TV channel. This needs to be remedied.
Drabek & McGowan
I might be alone on this, but I have pretty much no desire to see Drabek in Toronto in September .. maybe a bullpen appearance or two but that’s it. My reason is that would either mean he was injured at some point during the season or his innings could be getting up there.
Remember, Drabek had 130 total innings in 3 seasons before last year due to injuries, and then threw 150 innings last year. I think the Jays should be VERY careful with him in terms of workload over the next few years.
And I’d have similar concerns with McGowan. I hope I’m wrong b/c stuff wise, he might be our best shot at an “ace” in the short term. But his track record is not good injury wise. It’s not like he’s a guy who has proven he can go out there and give you 200 innings … in fact he had major injuries the season after his 2 heaviest workloads (191.2 in 2007, 162.1 in 2003). I don’t think the Jays WILL turn him into a RP, but I’m not sure they won’t regret not doing so either.
Cito
is my best bet for what could go wrong with the Jays.
if he doesn’t handle the pitching staff, we could really be seeing some pitchers going down mid season for overload work.
I mean we have a really nice bullpen who can step and take some innings off the starters.
none of the young starters have pitched more than 200 IP and Cito has to be very careful with that.
I have to put my hat in for this realistically
Cito showed signs of pitcher abuse last year, I don’t know if he can change…
Ball.
Realistically
The worst case scenario is that our pitching absolutely implodes. Marcum and Romero’s strong springs turn into +4.50 ERAs and 8-16 records, McGowan comes back with much fanfare, pitches a half dozen games and is basically out of baseball as his stuff just can’t come back. Hitter figure out Scrabble’s sliders, Janssen can’t keep the ball down, Tallet gets used up as a starter, Eveland turns into a beanball, the bullpen collapses between injuries and Acts of Gregg, forcing up Stewart, Drabek, Collins, Farquer, etc way before they’re ready and the ensuing slaughter sets them back years or forces machanical changes that lead to injuries.
I think this is a team that will hit, and shot of Adam Lind spontaneously combusting at the plate or Aaron Hill getting killed by a fallen satellite while rounding third, I think the offense will be at worst solid enough. The agony and the glory is going to be in that starting rotation.
I think you are over estimating the hitting/./
Only Hill as Lind are sure to be above league average at their postions. Gonzalez and Buck are likely to be black holes. Bautista still isn’t my idea of a lead off hitter. We won’t hit all that well.
Possibly
But I think it is far more likely that pitching will blow up ahead of hitting. 2009 was not a great year, and Toronto was in the top third in most offensive catagories. So regression to, say, around league average or so would make sense, but completely reversing into one of the worse offenses I find harder to imagine.
Now, league average in the AL East does mean 5th place and losing a lot of games, so it won’t be all that comforting, but yeah, if we’re talking worst case, I think it’s all about our rotation and bullpen.
i'm a bit bullish on the offense
I think we’ll improve at 1B, LF and CF (and maybe a slight improvement at C), and be worse off a short. I think we’ll be about the same everywhere else.
My gut feel is that it will likely even out. I expect gains in CF, 1B and 3B, but less production at SS, C and possible RF. I also expect where we lose in power we’ll make up for in on-base percentage, RISP and steals; those kinds of tradeoffs. I can see us regressing significantly, although wouldn’t be hugely surprised if we do take a step or two back if Overbay, Wells, Bautista and Encarnacion struggle again and we’re forced to bring up newer guys sooner. I don’t see us dropping to around the bottom of the league or anything.
Now, the nice thing is, if everyone ends up clicking, this is a lineup that can do a lot of damage. Other than SS, this is a roster of starters will power at every position.
Seriously and Honestly...
While high tides and low sperm counts may bedevil our sainted Jays – I for one – think it is much more likely that:
In Boston, Beckett’s shoulder – the one that the Sox almost didn’t do the trade because of – finally unravels, that Matsuzaka never returns to his former glory and that Papelbon’s pea sized brain and intensity meter finally break down.
In NY, Rodriguez’s 34 year old hip finally gives up the ghost, Posada’s and Pettitte’s 38 year old bodies finally crumble and CC Sabathia’s bulk and high mileage arm finally meet gravity.
When all that happens – Ladies and Gentlemen we’ve got ourselves a whole new ball game! And while all that is somewhat unlikely – I think it is MORE likely than any doom and gloom scenarios about the Jays.
That would be nice.....
but unfortunately the Jays are no longer in the same league as the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of payroll. As Syc stated: Epy Guererro V2.0. Rogers needs to somehow find a way to market the team better to a younger audience. One thing that Rogers could do is make the field more esthetically pleasing. The field needs to look more traditional. The present Astro turf/cutouts at the bases looks odd IMHO.
by Muscle-Dolphin on Mar 19, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Plenty of teams compete at that level without that payroll
The Blue Jays are finally making the steps to get to that position. If AA proves that he is building a winner don’t be surprised to see Rogers open up payroll a bit more. Obviously not to the extreme of the Yankees/Red Sox but they can approach the 100 million mark easily if it’s justified.
If the Jays play
aggressively and showcase their young talent hopefully they should be able to prevent a large dropoff in attendance that could lead to Rogers pulling back on the payroll. Rogers needs to use some of their marketing braintrust to find a way to make baseball “cool” again.
Honestly
worst thing would be:
1. we dont sign our draft picks
2. our prospects dont improve
3. Morrow/McGowan dont improve
4. Cito Re-signs for 5 more years…
Great list
Great list Tom, albeit of bad things, but nicely put together.
My approach as a fan to this season is that this is going to be a fun, exciting season just from the point of view of watching young players develop and the future coming together.
So personally I’m not worried about on-season performance so much, whether it be how many games we lose or how some of the old guys do (though I am pulling for Wells to bounce back and Overbay to do well so we can trade him). But I am worried about the rest of the fans. I hope Rogers Centre really isn’t a black hole and that this then puts pressure on AA from Rogers to try some stop-gap moves or what not. The good thing is Paul Beeston is around, he knows from the Jays early days the importance of sticking to the plan in the lean years, so I’m pretty confident it will be okay from this side of things.
My other main worry would be injuries. This is what has really been the hardest part to me of being a Jays fan in recent years. I can handle players struggling, particularly when it’s young guys, but there’s nothing more depressing and enthusiasm-sapping as a fan then seeing player after player disappear to the DL. I really hope our young starters can stay healthy and we can just see them develop without the what ifs and maybe next year’s about injuries. The good thing though is that we’ve got as many exciting young starters at the AAA level as at the MLB level, so if we do get stricken again by injuries there, we have other exciting players to see.
Otherwise, the other stuff about not signing draft picks or not making the right deals or making wrongs one, I’m not worried about as I have a lot of confidence in AA’s ability and the support of Beeston to have the dollars ready.
Cost savings is the key...
In order to protect the delicate arms of the team’s can’t-miss pitching prospects from Cito Young Pitchers’ Abuse Syndrome, the Jays front office has decided default all their games this year. Apparently the team is going to just e-mail in the losses.
AA decided that the few fans who do show up for scheduled games would have more fun drinking free beer and watching replays of the 1992 & 1993 World Series on the Rogers Centre big screen.
An insider told me that the Blue Jays are going to start playing games again in 2014, although to me that seems to be kind of rushing things a little.
not to cast too great a shadow over the 2010, but after the Jays hot streak, wasn’t there record after that worst or second worst in all of MLB? that is my greatest fear
This will be a tough year but results could be ok – ie: 500+. The team has some decent hitting assets including Hill, Lind, Wells (if he reverts), Snider (if he matures) and Ruiz and JoBau (if they sustain). EE could breakout and Overbay may outperform due to contract year. I have low expectations for SS and C hitting slots. There are a lot of question marks here. My biggest worrry is that Cito is not responsive enough. This season may require more active decison-making than that to which Cito is accustomed. I would cite Cito’s slow response to Rios / Wells situation last year as an example of what not to repeat. I hope Cito moves the pieces around more quickly based on performance.
I have some worries about bull pen. They were a little erratic in 2009. I hope they tighten up a bit in 2010.
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