Fifteen Things I Believe
by hugo on Mar 27, 2010 6:37 PM EDT
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Print- Ricky Romero has an impressive career, and an impressive season, in front of him. In 2010 he will cut his walks by almost a full walk/9 while keeping up his solid K rates and impressive ground ball rates.
- Whatever Cito says, one way or another, Lyle Overbay will not be in the lineup on an everyday basis against left handed pitchers.
- Jose Bautista, useful player though he is, is stretched beyond his capabilities as an an everyday leadoff man and right fielder.
- Shaun Marcum will get back to baffling hitters with his array of quality pitches and pinpoint control as if nothing ever happened. He'll give up his share of dingers, but will establish himself as a solid #2-3 starter again.
- The Jays' bullpen will be as much as a third of a run better than they were last season (4.08 ERA).
- Vernon Wells has not had his last 25 home run season.
- Marc Rzepczynski will establish himself as a decent major-league starter this year, but that will not be enough to secure him a job in the Jays' long-term rotation plans.
- Brian Tallet will not end May in the Jays' rotation. Brett Cecil, however, will.
- Edwin Encarnacion will bring above-average offense from the third base spot. However, the Jays will miss Scott Rolen big time on the defensive side of the ball.
- Adam Lind will enjoy another excellent season in 2010, albeit perhaps without 35 home runs, and will hit 50 doubles in a season before he turns 30.
- Aaron Hill, too, will hit fewer home runs in 2010 but will improve as a hitter nonetheless.
- Kyle Drabek will never make the Jays' fans forget Roy Halladay, but will also make us never forget Kyle Drabek. He will also start the Jays' first playoff game since 1993.
- Brett Wallace will be playing first base for the Jays by the season's end.
- Assuming Encarnacion is traded during or let go after the season, Brad Emaus and Scott Campbell could make a reasonably effective two-headed third baseman in a throwback to Jays' teams past - at least, until something better comes along.
- Roots Radical is as good as anything Operation Ivy ever did. Well, darn close.
Post the things you believe in the comments.
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This
Is going to be a long season
I am the commenter formerly known as Belligerent Burkie
Follow me on twitter @CoolJ90
However...
I do believe in:
Scrabble, Vernon, Hill, Lind, and Alex Anthopolous
I find it hard to believe in:
JoBau, Cito, EE, A-Gon, and statistics.
Don’t ask me why. It’s just a gut feeling…
Festina Lente
Forgot to mention that
I don’t believe in:
A single word out of Bud Selig’s lips…
But that’s just me, I’m sure…
Festina Lente
I forgot to mention Anthopolous
bonus belief #16: Alex Anthopolous has the Jays on the right track (though that is sort of built into the Drabek thing).
If anything, you seem even more optimistic than I am.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
"Optimistic" is my middle name
And I do, same as you do, find it difficult to separate “Hope” and “Believe” while regarding the Jays.
In order to have Hope, one has got to Believe…
Festina Lente
i like some of these
the emaus/campbell platoon is something i’ve been thinking about since the summer of 2008.
same here, actually
it seems to work better at third, too. Not many teams seem to platoon their second basemen.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
would feel a lot more comfortable if I knew where Campbell was at the moment...
But I’d like to see it.
Junior Jays
I wish us all that next year every day will be a “Junior Jays Day” – Cito, Let the Kids Play!
Festina Lente
Hoboken > Roots Radical
I’ve heard both live and can attest to that.
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Mar 27, 2010 7:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
that's a fair point
That is a great song. I was just listening to Out Come the Wolves recently and thought I had given some of it short shrift compared to Op Ivy, which I have always had on this sort of pedestal.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Bombshell...
..is a hell of a song. Their best, in my eyes.
UNITY – AS ONE STAND TO TOGETHER. not aging as well.
by Lloyd D. Barber on Mar 27, 2010 7:51 PM EDT reply actions
also an incredible song
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
freeze up is my favorite by opivy
and my favorite rancid song, ridiculous as it is, would be poison, though the more melodic stuff is often great as well
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
fav op song is the crowd
“ohh, just another crowd! – we need a gathering instead!”
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
one thing that makes me laugh
When Scott Campbell arrived in NH this summer we were talking and he said in a totally non-sarcastic and completely narcisstic tone that he would only be in NH a week or two before he went back up to Vegas. After weeks and months in AA it really got to him. I think it would do a lot for him to get a crack at the big club. I think he felt hurt not getting sent up to AAA last year aside from the early handful of at bats.
by NHfishercatsfan on Mar 27, 2010 8:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
and by narcisstic
I don’t mean he was a jerk, I mean confident.
by NHfishercatsfan on Mar 27, 2010 8:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i think he started the year in AAA
and struggled with injuries. he was probably told he was just down at AA to rehab a bit, but he never really found his health until the end.
Hechavarria will
be called up by the end of August. Overbay will be gone and Wells will finally come close to meeting expectations. Romero will win 20 games. Next year Anthopolous will be named GM of the year.
Are we getting anywhere with the Hechavarria Signing?
I would feel better if the deal was done
They haven't said a word....
I’ve been taking it for granted it is physicals and contract language and all but you’d think all that would be done by now. Would be nice if it were done, it would be nice to see him actually play.
it's almost certainly immigration
i remember kenny rodriguez i think taking two months to come across 2 years ago.
Frasor
Hasn’t Cito already said the job is his?
"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.
by craig in calgary on Mar 27, 2010 9:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Carl Crawford would make a great offseason signing next year
except that the Jays won’t be willing to offer him more than 4 years.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
nor will they
Be able to afford him…
by NHfishercatsfan on Mar 27, 2010 9:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
no we could definitely afford him if we wanted to
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
not if the yankees
Decide they want him, which if Werth decides to go somewhere else, is a strong possibility. Plus he’s spent a long time on a losing franchise. I doubt he’d choose another one if a winning team offered similar money.
by NHfishercatsfan on Mar 28, 2010 8:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I know you are a Yankee fan
but give it a rest, man. Anyway, your point has nothing to do with your original statement that the Jays “couldn’t afford” Crawford. Clearly they could, though I don’t think they will really try.
Now you are saying that he wouldn’t want to play for them. Sure, that’s always a possibility, but generally free agents try to go to whichever team pays them the most money over the most years. That the team in question happens to be the Yankees quite a lot, well, you’re confusing cause and effect, I think.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Well any team can afford any player...
So it’s never whether or not you can actually afford someone. These are billion dollar (or some close to it) companies. It’s whether or not you value how much the going rate is for the guy and if that is in your budget. When he comes around as a free agent, any team will be able to afford his desired salary, it’s just how much of their “budget” they want to put into other players. And I really don’t think the Jays will be able to fit his salary in their budget when they get into a bidding war with the Yankees or Red Sox or any other big market team…therefore they will not be able to “afford” him.
by NHfishercatsfan on Mar 28, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
as you point out, whether the Jays
want to get into a bidding war with the Yankees or Red Sox doesn’t really have anything to do with whether they can afford Crawford. My point is that there is room in the Jays’ budget, with Overbay, Ryan, and others coming off the payroll, to pay Crawford whatever he will end up making on the market.
On another level, it is just plain annoying to hear Yankees fans just assume that if they want a player, they will always get him and no one else should bother trying. This is a Jays’ fan site.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'm not assuming it as a Yankees fan...
I live near Boston. I hear that all the time from all of my Red Sox fan friends, Mets fan friends, Marlins friend fans, etc.
It’s the way all of baseball sees it.
by NHfishercatsfan on Mar 28, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
too bad the jays are actually the 4th largest market in the league.
maybe more, if the rest of the country is included…
a winner in toronto will be huge. just wait.
the problem is
Baseball either isn’t that popular or there aren’t enough fans willing to pay to go to the games/close enough to the stadium.
I’ve gone to 2 games in Toronto in the past 3 years and both times I was able to buy like 10 dollar seats and move down to field level because it was near empty.
The only other places like that were Montreal and Tampa Bay and I’ve done all of the stadiums except the new yankees and mets stadiums.
by NHfishercatsfan on Mar 29, 2010 6:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
you must have gone to a garbage series in dead summer, during the 2009 season...
they average 20,000+
and are in the upper middle for attendance, even in the last few years.
once the team grows a bit, expect 30,000 regularly.
Toronto is twice or three times the size of most MLB cities.
re: bidding wars
that’s like saying no team besides the Yankees could afford any player because the Yankees could just theoretically outbid them
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
that's not an issue
Beeston will pay more per year to have a shorter term. that’s been his strategy since the eighties.
Gathright's been released
I think the advantage McCoy has over Reed is that they’d like to try Bautista everyday. If he proves he can’t handle it, they would look to call up Reed as a platoon partner.
yeah
Reed’s career offensive numbers are not even close to enough to get excited about, but his numbers against righties are better than Bautista. Perhaps not better by enough to justify a roster spot, though.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
15 things that will happen this year
1. Vernon wells bats higher than 280 for the season ( 92 RBI – 27 hr )
2. The jays will question a 5th starter until someone finally clicks in September
( meanwhile 1 – 4 will jockey positions )
3. As the season ends strong hints towards an inner organization promotio for cito’s replacement !
4. Someone other than hill or Lind belt 30 homeruns
5. Someone other than Roy leads the jays in all pitching statistics ( romero )
6. Despite the 12 games behind 500 we are at the all-star break , attendance will be up .
7. Buck in a full season eclipses all previous off totals ( Rogers center is a nice place to hit -ask Adam linds opposite field power
8. Downs leaves Toronto in august for a prospect
9. We are treated to a consistant wheel work of movement by AA throughtout the year – ( please spin Lyle out if town )
10. Randy ruiz will be very productive all depending on AB’S
11. Marcum will make two dl trips both 15 day , maybe a month
12. McGowan will be hitting the low to mid 90’s by august and probably be left in AAA for the season
13. The bullpen with be in the top three of A.L bullpen ERA
14. Cito will make us laugh
and just maybe we win a few games
thanks for the blog SB
lucas
by TorontoBluejays10 on Mar 28, 2010 12:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
i like the way this one sounds
2. The jays will question a 5th starter until someone finally clicks in September
It makes me picture Brett Cecil being interrogated by Toronto Police
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
1/3 of the roster that starts the year will not finish the year as part of the Jays organization
I get the feeling that AA will be very active trading away or moving whatever lineup the Jays break camp with.
I have a very tough time thinking that E5, Overbay, Alex Gonzalez, Molina, Buck, Macdonald, Frasor, Downs, Tallet and Bautista will finish the season with the team. Contenders will come calling and swoop all of them up. All of them are useful reserve pieces for a championship team. The Yanks, for instance, could be interested in bringing Molina back if Burnett struggles and needs his personal catcher back.
I Really hope you are right...
About the bullpen being .25 lower, EE and obviously Drabek. I think you are wrong about EE though.
Catch the Taste
you think he will improve defensively?
I’d like to believe he will, but I just don’t see any reason to. I’m hoping Butterfield can work a very modest improvement that would still leave him significantly below average. By the same token, though, Encarnacion was a decent hitter before his wrist injury and, assuming full recovery, he should be able to get back to hitting. The big problem I have with him is that his defense is so bad that even when he hits like he did in 2008 he’s not all that valuable of a player.
I’m not sure whether he will get traded, but I think if he doesn’t there’s a decent chance the Jays non-tender him. It depends how he plays this season, though.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
i'd think if his bat's good enough
he could have value as a first baseman (or leftfielder?) somewhere, though unfortunately it’s not exactly like the Jays will have much room at those spots
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
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