Would you trade Aaron Hill?
by Tom Dakers on Mar 3, 2010 10:08 AM EST
in Analysis
36 comments
I picked up Baseball Prospectus 2010 and read the Blue Jays section. Some of it was interesting, a fair bit of JP bashing. They really don't like the trade of Michael Taylor for Brett Wallace. But in the Aaron Hill write up they say that even though he is signed to a very reasonable contract...
he's on the other side of 27 and is unlikely to ever have a better season. The rebuilding Jays should cash him in for prospects before he has a chance to be exposed.
I don't know. First of all, he won't be on the 'other side of 27' until the 21 of this month. Yeah he may have just had a career year but then you can't trade everyone that has a good season. Hill might not be as good this year as last, then again he might be. I didn't foresee a 36 home run season last year and I would bet on another this year, but he should be good. Even a team rebuilding needs to keep some players. It's not like Hill will be too old to play in 2 or 3 years when the team hopes to be contending again.
I guess it depends on what you would get for him, we do have holes in right field and short, maybe third, and if you traded Hill you'd have one at second as well. It seems like a lot to hope to get a good prospect for each of those spots just for Aaron Hill.
So I'll ask you guys the question, would you trade Aaron Hill and what would you like to get back?
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Like Harry Frazee said, of course you’d trade Aaron Hill… for the right price.
I’ve never liked the ‘untouchable’ label, because it implies an unwillingness to even consider an offer; a trait that no GM should ever indulge in. Unfortunately, very often the baseball press takes any qualification other than untouchable as being actively shopped.
Yes, trade him
I’ve been saying this for a very long time now. Look up my commenting history.
Aaron Hill’s value will never be higher. The team still has many, many holes. Hill is also signed to a reasonable contract considering his perceived value (which I feel is quite a bit higher right now than his actual value). I think you could get significantly more for Hill than you did for Halladay right now, which is saying something, and would make a lot of sense to investigate.
Hill’s value is only going to go down, unfortunately. I hope I am proven wrong, but this team is probably 2-3 years away from seriously challenging for the playoffs, and at that point Hill will likely be heading into his decline.
Cash in while you can.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
"you could get significantly more for Hill than you did for Halladay"
You really think you could get MORE than 3 top-flight prospects (almost definitely 3 of the Jays’ top 4 or 5 prospects) for Aaron Hill? Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy and how he plays the game, but let’s be realistic here. He’s at best a top-5 at his position player and you’re comparing him to (in my biased opinion) the best player who plays the most important position in the game? Hill’s signed to an EXCELLENT contract, put up a very solid OPS (especially at such a valuable position), plays great defense by pretty much every metric and anecdotal evidence, and is, in theory, just entering his baseball prime. As Jayson G said below, if you could get 2 high ceiling, proven prospects for him, then absolutely pull the trigger, but no GM in their right mind would ever trade more than three excellent prospects for a player of Hill’s calibre.
In my mind...
…his excellent contract works to his favour, because a competing GM thinks – I can solve this position for a long long time.
Halladay had one expensive year left. That downgraded the return you would get.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
I don't agree
because it’s only one year. Any contending team (remember how many teams were entered in the Doc sweepstakes?) would gladly swallow his (fair) contract for one year if it put them that much closer to a title. If Doc had 3 or 4 years left, and was getting older, maybe a different story. But IMO, as good as Hill’s contract is, you’re vastly overestimating the difference it would make in a potential deal; the players are still overwhelmingly the most important cog.
Same
I thought i was the only one who liked the idea of trading him. He is a great player, but by the time we are ready to compete (which I put at around 2012-2014) he will be 30 years old and i doubt that he will be repeating his previous years. Trade him while his value is high for 2 high ceiling prospects (preferably at third base and shortstop) and let those prospects be in their prime when we can start winning again. And at second base the Jays have some promising prospects. But the Jays aren’t going to get as much as they got for Halladay. Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the game and most consistent.
Blasphemy!
I don’t think any Hill trade will sit well at all with the fan base, unless of course Wells is part of the package. (Hey, one can dream.)
Hill is probably the main reason I (and a lot of others) will have an incentive to watch a game or visit the ballpark this year. Besides, at the end of the season he will still be…27; and i think he will have another stellar year. But the worst part about trading Hill is that it might instill an Oakland-type mentality where we might just keep developing players and then trading them away.
I don’t think you can trade him.
As bad as things are for the club right now, the Jays still can compete. If you trade Hill, then you could cause unrepairable damage to the fan base by putting a guaranteed last place team on the field. I think they should at least hang on to Hill for a few years and hope they can draft his replacement as opposed to trading Hill for his own replacement.
its going to be a last place team with him or not. You atleast have to look at a possible trade or your not doing your job as a GM. Oh and the fans wont care you traded him. What are they gonna do not show up to games?
by syc on Mar 3, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, that's correct.
Of course you need to consider trade options, but to say that the fans wouldn’t care if you traded him is idiotic. According to baseballprojection, Hill was worth 5.4 wins last season. Want to guess what he was worth in 2007? It was 5.2. I think there’s at least a fair chance Hill is worth five wins in 2010. The difference between winning and losing five games is huge, even for a losing team. I know I’d much rather see the Jays go 77-85 than 72-90.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I’d gladly take those extra 5 losses if it meant having a chance for an extra 5-10 wins in a later season down the road.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
how often are you going to get a 5 win player
in return for a 5 win player? 2Bs are fairly easy to come by, and a team doesn’t trade with you unless it thinks it can win. Maybe you don’t care about how many wins the team has this season (which I also find extremely hard to believe), if they lose Hill and the trade doesn’t work out (revealed a few years down the road), you most certainly will not be happy with the team
Hill
I’d listen, b/c I agree that Hill is not likely to hit 30hr too often and the Jays have some encouraging options in the minors at 2b (Emaus and Tolisano had “unlucky years”, they are 2 I think could really emerge this season). But realistically, are you going to get a lot for him? I don’t think you would. Teams would be wary that he had 1 huge season first off. And secondly, 2b usually isn’t a tough position to fill. Look at guys who were available this offseason, Felipe Lopez isn’t in Hill’s league but he’s not an awful option and he just got a job last week. But a better comparison would be Kelly Johnson, who is Hill’s age, has the same career line, and was coming off a bad season (vs Hill’s great season). Johnson was non-tendered and there wasn’t exactly a bidding war for his services. I’m not saying he and Hill are the same, but I’m saying it’s a huge leap to go from getting nothing for one guy (Johnson) and multiple elite prospects for another (Hill) based on one season and one season alone.
If I had to guess what WILL happen with Hill, I see him here this year for sure, hitting around his career line or a little better. I also think Emaus will step it up and give reason for AA to possibly shop Hill next offseason, and that if he is dealt we will not get 2 elite prospects for him b/c the market for 2bmen just isn’t that great. There’s a lot of good 2b like Hill. There’s few great ones (Utley …. anyone else?) but I don’t think Hill is in that class.
I dont think teams would be scared off cuz of one great year. One great year got Gary Matthews JR a huge pay day. There is always one sucker to over pay for a guy based off one good year.
by syc on Mar 3, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
There are several questions to whether a trade now makes sense
Will Hill’s performance decline over the next 2-3 years?
Will the player(s) you get back be able to significantly contribute to the Jays in the next 2-3 years?
Is there a player in our system that can adequately replace Hill at 2B in the next 2-3 years? The replacement player would not have to match Hill’s accomplishments but he would have to play well enough that there is no too much of a drop off.
I'd trade anyone for the right price.
Hill is a great 2B, a position always in demand… you could get a LOT back for him. He isn’t going to be as good as he was last year again in his career.
I don’t think the Jays should trade him unless someone offers something spectacular, but you can never rule out the idea… even though its unlikely to ever happen.
Onions Baby Onions
For an outlet that prides itself on ignoring mainstream baseball analysis mistakes
Baseball Prospectus really makes a lot of the same ones. Since when is 27 even an age players get “on the other side of”? I’d like to know how many players the Prospectus said that about.
As dex said above, you have to be willing to part with players if the right deal comes along, but the problem with Hill is that his perceived value is nowhere near what they might claim it to be — particularly if you go off shopping him now. The value of any established major leaguer who is signed to a team-friendly contract will “only go down.”
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Really, the only way you move Hill is either a team is willing to overpay in the areas you need most, or if you’ve got a can’t miss prospect tearing it up behind him. Since I really don’t think that Emaus and Tolisano are going to emerge as elite prospects anytime soon, there’s no internal pressure to move him, so really, the only scenario that makes sense is someone coming with a Doc like package.
One of the problems with the wealth of statistics is that often people forget to look at the player and the root of those stats. Is Hill’s value going to decline? Possibly, but what are considered the reasons why? There’s the possibility that Hill ends up being a little more selective at the plate this year and crushes almost as many. There’s plenty of hitters in baseball that didn’t become elite until their late 20s, so to suggest that Hill’s past his peak just on the basis of age and statistical averages is premature.
The goal is to have a star at each position
I don’t think you move Hill until he replacement forces him out. He could be a good second baseman for 5-10 years.
Everyone has a price
if a team came out and gave some great prospects you trade him..
There is no burning need to trade him now, he is still a good defender and a good hitter.
He has a good contract so there is no need to trade him unless some team blows you out of the water.
No team is going to be insane enough to make an offer that the Jays would make. If they did make an insane offer, then the Jays should definitely do it.
The thing is, Hill doesn’t make that much. That being said, it doesn’t matter if he only hits 20hrs per year, because he was never signed or projected to hit +30 hrs anyways.
What the Jays have is an affordable great option at 2B. I don’t know how you trade that. Even if you got a mega prospect, you are still going to have to pay that mega prospect $20 million after a few years anyways.
trade anyone for the right price...
BUT
the right price in this case would require a confluence of events unlikely to happen – to wit, we’d need to get back a young, stud SS which you are only going to get if such a player is coming up in an organization that already has a superstar SS.
The unlikelyhood of such a perfect storm happening makes this pretty much a theoretical.
that said, if – for instance – you got offered a deal which was incredibly stupid for the other team then yeah, you have to take it.
Trade Hill? What difference would that make?
I’m a Yankee fan, but for 25 years my allegiance was with the Blue Jays—until fairly recently. I opted for fan free-agency so I’d have the “chance to win”.
I’m not going to waste my time following the Canadian version of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the next five to ten years, eh.
Do you think Yankee fans discuss trading Robinson Cano for “cant-miss” prospects? I haven’t heard a single thing mentioned.
Over the past quarter-century, the Jays have gone from a good team to a great team to a mediocre team to the current bottom-feeder team. I’ve got them pencilled in for 58 wins this season; Yankees should have around 115. (No need mentioning why, guys. I’m fully aware that MLB is a joke in terms of competitive balance.)
Sad thing to see a once-great franchise disappear down the dumper.
LOL
That whole post disgusted me. 58 wins? 115 wins? The Jays will not lose 100 games I don’t care how biased you are. I think only a Yankee fan could project such obscene numbers. How can you win 115 games with only one pitcher that will have a sub-4.00 ERA? Burnett? Not likely. Vazquez? I’d bet my mortgage on it. CC is your only stud on the farm, my out of touch yankee friend.
Fan free-agency? I would love to throw an actual red sock in the wash with your Yankee jersey!!
That's like swapping your wife for her hotter but crazier sister
you’ll have sporadic moments of enjoyment, but if you don’t regret it in the long run, you must be crazy, too.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
My sincere apologies...
Hi Jesse
Let’s be pals.
Tom just told me how this site works. I’m in excrement up to my ears because I asked if you were dumb, but it’s okay with Tom that you suggest that I have mental problems. Because you’re his friend, eh.
The other know-it-all, Haynes, calls me “out-of-touch,” a euphemism for “ignorant”.
Let’s face it. The subject matter of the article is hilarious. Trading one of your two stars for “can’t-miss” prospects. What for? So that four or five years down the road you can trade the best prospect you got for Hill—if one of them becomes an impact player—for more prospects?
The only thing big corporations like Rogers Comm. can’t take in stride is bad publicity. You’ve got a respectable medium here. Why don’t you start using it to effect change?
Buying into Anthopoulos’ propaganda is pathetic. AA’s saying all the right things to get fans to continue to support the team, while his bosses cut about $35 million in payroll, reducing the team’s contending chances to nil.
A baseball game at the Rogers Centre is still entertainment, but there’s not going to be much “sport” in it for years to come.
Sigh
What is it with Yankees fans, who feel the need to run around fan forums of every other MLB team, doing their best to point out how substandard that they are? I mean, really, do you honestly have that much time on your hands between writing comparisons of Derek Jeter and Jesus and proclaiming that Joba is the next coming of Walter Johnson, Sandy Koufax and Chuck Norris combined that you need to drop into another forum, make some kind of nonsensical and insulting statement as a ‘former fan who saw the light’ and switched over to rooting for the Yankees, and then post inflammatory drek in order to pick a fight? Is there that little to talk about in Yankeeland?
Besides, rooting for the Yankees is easy. They have the most money, they have the most media exposure, they have the ability to buy into any player on the market and a history littered with making baseball as uncompetitive as possible for their own advantage. It’s like trying to root for the guy in a romantic comedy to get the girl he wants from a lineup in a brothal. The second the money is handed over, it’s done. You can actually respect Pirates fans. Anyone who’s bled for that long following a team in a tough division is a real fan. The bandwagon jumpers are just guys who like switching caps a lot.
Addressing dexfartin's beautifully balanced reply to my previous post...
Dex, you’ve disarmed me. You’ve got to cut me some slack. I can’t keep up with all your non-germane metaphors, similes and hyperbole, although I really did dig the overall sense of oxymoron which permeated throughout.
Just because I’m a practicing Christian Irish-Canadian old-age pensioner living the high life in goyland, don’t you think I know what “drek” means? Nein yiddisher mensch, ich bin a gute goyshe alter kocker mit a sehr bisl meshugas. Verstahe? So please refrain from using foul language. Er, unless you’re one of Tom’s friends. Then it’s okay.
In my previous posts, I made several statements about the Jays organization. Would you care to address those remarks? If you don’t agree, give me your take of the Jays’ situation, will you?
I don’t agree with what you said about the Pittsburgh fans. They’re acting like a bunch of masochists. Weak as water. Makes a man want to toss his cookies.
Pittsburgh fans can improve their team’s chances anytime they want. After all, they hold the big stick. All they have to do is not attend any of the games in the team’s next six-game homestand. That ought to do it. You’re an intelligent fellow, Dex, so I’m sure you can see how.
It's a slow day at work, what the heck...
I’m not going to waste my time following the Canadian version of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the next five to ten years, eh.
Inaccurate comparison. The Pirates have had 16 straight losing losings without ever approaching a playoff spot. The Jays, for all their ups and downs, not only have a significantly higher winning record, but have done so in a tougher and more expensive league and division.
Do you think Yankee fans discuss trading Robinson Cano for "cant-miss" prospects? I haven’t heard a single thing mentioned.
Which only makes sense if you assume that the Yankees and the Blue Jays face identical challenges and the differences between the two can be summed up as organization mindset and culture. So in one sense, you’re right, if Aaron Hill was on the Yankees, there would never be a reason to consider trading him because the reasons we’ve discussed do not apply to New York. If Cano was on the Jays, the exact same reasons which apply to trading Hill would apply to him as well. There are fundamental difference in how each club can assemble a playoff calibre team, and ignoring those differences is disengeneous at best.
Buying into Anthopoulos’ propaganda is pathetic. AA’s saying all the right things to get fans to continue to support the team, while his bosses cut about $35 million in payroll, reducing the team’s contending chances to nil.
And your basis is? Whether you agree with it or not, Anthopoulos has clearly outlined his strategy, priorities, and plan to compete on a timeline. It is also a reasonable model to follow in the conditions under which Toronto has to compete. So dismissing it as propaganda assumes you either possess a level of insider knowledge into the organization and have specific knowledge that the plan is just a ploy to keep rubes in the seats, or you’re making assumptions because you disagree with the approach and want to cast it in the most negative light possible in order to support your statement, without an actual proof to the veracity of your claim.
I’m a Yankee fan, but for 25 years my allegiance was with the Blue Jays—until fairly recently. I opted for fan free-agency so I’d have the "chance to win".
I’ll stick with my original opinion; fans who jump teams based on winning records are about as valid in my eyes as choosing a team based on what logo you like best.
I can't smack you down any harder than dex and jesse have
but I would like to address a point you made about the site.
As a proprietor of Bluebird Banter, I fully agree that posters who are Jays fans get more latitude than Yankees fans who come onto the site and pick arguments. That’s because the vast majority of Jays fans are here for intelligent baseball conversation with like-minded fans. When it comes to fans of other teams, many of them come for the same reasons and everyone here treats them with respect and decency, or they answer to us. But when fans of other teams come by just to point out the breaking news that the Yankees are better than the Blue Jays, no, they don’t get a lot of latitude in what they say. When you’re a guest in someone’s house, you behave a certain way or you won’t be invited back.
Also, only some being willfully obtuse could read jesse’s post and think it compares to asking if another poster is stupid. Don’t be willfully obtuse
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
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