What about Robert Ray and Brad Mills?

by Tom Dakers on Mar 8, 2010 11:44 AM EST in Analysis Comment 17 comments

The Jays seem to have decided that Brian Tallet will be a starter this year and the best reasoning for it, around here, seems to be that him starting would drive up his trade value. I do see the point, I thought he should be traded last year at the deadline, as he was pitching well and starters are valued by contenders, but a trade wasn't found. I'm not sure that, unless he pitches very well, he could have anymore trade value this year. In fact I'm not sure he wouldn't have more value as a lefty reliever, but that's a digress.

But with Robert Ray and Brad Mills, we have two pitchers that are pretty much on the bubble this year. Ray is 26 and Mills 25. There are handful of younger arms that are likely to pass them by in the next year, so if they are to make the majors, this is the year. I'd love to see one of these two make the team so that we could see what we have and/or we could build some trade value and maybe get something in return for them since they don't look to be part of the future of the team. If we they don't pick up any trade value this year I think they will likely become assets with little to no value and I think they are each too good to not get something out of them.

Not that I'm against Brett Cecil making the team, I think he'd do great and I think getting him a full year to get used to the majors would be good. We know that despite how good we've looked at the start of spring, this year isn't likely our year. We might as well get Cecil some experience. And, on the theory that our best coaching is at the major league level, we might as well have our best work with him.

If it is me, I use Morrow, Scrabble, Romero, Marcum and one of Mills, Ray or Cecil. I don't worry about the order of the rotation. I run them as a straight rotation and don't skip anyone for days off, I just push everyone a day back.That gives guys an extra day every now and then. I tell them to relax and pitch, I'm not taking anyone out of the rotation for at least the 10 times through the rotation.

Tallet I use as a long man, we have a bunch of young pitchers in the rotation, there will be lots of times we need a long guy, both he and Camp will have lots of work.

Yeah I know the guys they pay to make those decisions are smarter than me and know more about these things, but that's what I'd do. But I can't see the point in giving Tallet a starting job at 32 years on a team that's not planing to contend for a year or two. He's not going to complete a bunch of starts to give the bullpen a day off now and then, so what's the point?

0 recs | Comment 17 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Agree and Disagree

Agree:

If it is me, I use Morrow, Scrabble, Romero, Marcum and one of Mills, Ray or Cecil

Disagree:

the guys they pay to make those decisions are smarter than me

LOL

by aagoodfella on Mar 8, 2010 11:53 AM EST reply actions

Mills

actually put up pretty good numbers last year in his 14 starts at AAA, despite the bad win-loss record.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Mills put up a better performance than Tallet, if given the chance to start every 5th day. And since it doesn’t look like the Jays are going to find a place for Mills long-term, the Jays could always trade Mills instead (my guess is that he will have more trade value than Tallet if he proves he can start in the majors as he is younger, controlled, and far cheaper) and still bank on getting the draft pick from Tallet (assuming he is a type B), which could well be more than whatever he will return in a trade.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Mar 8, 2010 12:07 PM EST reply actions

I think Mills pitched a couple of times at the majors last year and looked terrible. I know a couple of times is not a lot, but Ray on the other hand had good starts last year.

by wadcanshuur on Mar 8, 2010 12:12 PM EST reply actions

Mills made 2 starts and neither was good

Ray made 4 starts and 1 was good.

I’m not counting Ray out (I think injuries are his biggest issue) but to base anything on that is a little silly.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Mar 8, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

It has never been clear what was his injury last year.

by aagoodfella on Mar 8, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

right

that’s not an encouraging thing. but he has had other injuries his whole way up, that’s what’s delayed his progress to the majors

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Mar 8, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

Again, don’t see this as a big deal b/c by the middle of the season it’s not going to be Tallet or Mills or Ray or probably even Cecil in there, it will likely be Litsch or McGowan, maybe both. Let the kids start in AAA without the pressure of potentially being dropped from the rotation when the vets get healthy. If they rip it up in AAA, bring them up! By all means. But to me the worst thing you do is give them a job, watch them crash and burn and then demote them. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: set people up for success, and when they do succeed THEN advance them. Some people around here seems to be that we should be giving major league jobs to guys like Cecil, Mills, Wallace, Arencibia … none of whom have really proven they can handle AAA (though MIlls wasn’t bad, injuries derailed him) just to see what we have … to me that is ridiculous. You want to see what you have, go to Las Vegas and watch them play!!! If they aren’t playing well there, chances are pretty good you aren’t missing out on much. Let them succeed in AAA, THEN move them to the majors. Let Snider succeed lower in the lineup, THEN move him up. Same goes for Drabek and AA vs AAA, let him master AA.

As for Robert Ray …how does he get lumped in with actual prospects? You know why he’s 25 already? B/c he pitched 3 straight years in Dunedin and has only a half a season in AA or higher, and when he was in AA while he had a great era his whip was 1.40 which is a terrible sign. His minor league track record in general is mediocre at best.

by jayjay on Mar 8, 2010 12:35 PM EST reply actions

personally, given the range of pitchers the Jays have and in the interest of not rushing Litsch back, I would prefer, barring a rash of injuries, that Litsch not return until 2011.

In Snider’s case, when he came up in late 2008, he was the best hitting player on the team. In 2009, he fared ok early on (albeit vs. AL Central) than declined. So even by your logic, he had merited a spot on the team up until part way through the 2009 season when he started slumping. But there were plenty of slumping bats on the Jays in 2009.

by aagoodfella on Mar 8, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

Potentially agree on Litsch, we’ll have to see. It really depends how far along he is. Last I heard he should be ready for July, and if he was I see no reason to just sit him on the sidelines for 3 months if he’s ready. But for sure, you don’t need to put him into overdrive and push him back asap.

I didn’t say Snider didn’t merit a spot on the team. I think he was demoted b/c he refused to make adjustments, which Snider has said himself. And as for the other slumping bats, how you handle veterans who may not be here in 1 or 2 years vs. how you handle kids you expect to be core to the club for the next 5+ years is very different. But even some of the slumping vets (Rios) got punished as well.

by jayjay on Mar 8, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

I know why he's 25 already...he was born 25 years ago....

why he gets thrown in? he was terrific last spring, he almost won a job out of spring. A number of guys take time at a level to get past it.

Won’t be Litsch at mid season. might be McGowan but by then some starter will likely be hurt and he’ll be needed to slide in. Why not use guys that might be there when the team could win?

You ask why use guys unproven in AAA? I ask why use guys that have proven they can’t help a team win. The team isn’t going to win with Buck as catcher, he’s a place holder. Nor with Alex Gonzalez at SS. Let Snider succeed lower in the order? Why have him bat behind guys that have proven they can’t do anything in the middle of the order?

And no I haven’t suggested once that Wallace get a to play. Arencibia…yeah…I don’t see how he’d be any worse than what we have at the moment.

by Tom Dakers on Mar 8, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

“I ask why use guys that have proven they can’t help a team win. "

So that the next wave of kids can develop. Pure and simple.

by jayjay on Mar 8, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

and I should say develop without using up major league time. Once they are proven in the minors, bring them up. But to advance a player to a level of competition higher than what he has already succeeded at and expect him to do anything but fail makes no sense. Nobody is arguing they might bot be better options in 2010 … but it’s not about 2010. It’s about what is best for 2-5 years down the road when the team hopes to compete.

by jayjay on Mar 8, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

I don't disagree

and I agree you don’t pitch someone in the majors just to “see what you have,” but it’s a fine line. Sure, you can start a guy like Cecil or Mills at AAA this season, on the grounds that they haven’t “proven” themselves there, and I don’t have any problem with the Jays deciding to do that, but things change very quickly.

At some point players have nothing left to prove in the minors (and therefore, nothing left to gain there) and lots of players, particularly pitchers, spend very little time at AAA. Moreover, no matter how much time you have in the minors, most players need some time to readjust to each new level. So, sure, you can start Tallet in the rotation and Mills and Cecil at AAA, but you can’t justify keeping there very long if they’re throwing well. In addition, the PCL isn’t really conducive to building pitcher confidence and putting up fat numbers (nor, of course, is the AL East).

By the standard you are applying, Rzepczynski hasn’t “proven” himself at AAA (2 starts there in his career, essentially skipped AAA in his promotion to the majors), nor, arguably, did Litsch (just a few AAA starts), McGowan (18 decent AAA starts but certainly nothing beyond what Mills did last season), Marcum (4.95 ERA at AAA in 2005, in 2006 he was mostly used as a reliever there), Romero (7 good starts at AAA in 2008, after a mostly poor 2008 season in AA). At some point, you have to not demand dominating success at each level but just ask whether the player is ready to contribute at the major league level.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Mar 8, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

“So, sure, you can start Tallet in the rotation and Mills and Cecil at AAA, but you can’t justify keeping there very long if they’re throwing well.”

Agreed. I’m not saying hold them down there long, just that it’s not a big deal to have them start there and Tallet in the majors and then promote them vs. put them in the majors and possibly have to demote them.

And on the other list, yes it’s not a steadfast rule but the Jays are also in a much different situation than when they promoted many of those others. Zep was called up almost by necessity b/c of injuries . Guys like Litsch and Marcum were coming up b/c the Jays were trying to field the best team right away, which is not the case today and changes the equation. And in all honesty, if you REALLY want to dig into the situation the fact that many of them have pitched well does not prove that they couldn’t have pitched better had they not be rushed (if they were rushed). Generally, rushing players is a bad thing. So I’m preaching caution, especially in a year where the benefit (extra wins today) doesn’t really merit the risk (if they are being rushed they may not reach true potential) given the Jays aren’t really in a “competing” year. If they were, maybe it’s worth the risk. But they’re not.

by jayjay on Mar 8, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

it generally doesn’t pay to rush players. Seattle is an organization that comes to mind that tends to aggressively promote their pitching prospects and while it worked out okay with King Felix, it arguably backfired (maybe big-time) with Morrow. Each player is different – Romero only had 7 starts at AAA and wasn’t very effective at AA in that same season, but he put together a nice rookie campaign for the Jays the following year. But a lot of that move was necessity due to injuries to Marcum and McGowan (and Burnett’s opting out). So I agree that just because it seems to have worked out doesn’t mean it was the optimal way of doing things or the way you’d draw it up.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Mar 8, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

I’d say the most likely reason is that they aren’t necessarily sold on either Mills, Ray or Cecil being there and ready opening day, so unless they tear things up in Spring Training, why add up MLB service team if you’re not sure they’re ready to handle it? Tallet already going to make the club, either in the rotation or the bullpen (unless he keeps pitching like his last start), and starting him for a month while double checking the other guys doesn’t hurt the ballclub at all and might add to his value.

I think the thing is that if AA and the Jays think Cecil, Mills or Ray are ready to come up for a real chance to stick with the rotation, Tallet makes no sense. But if there are still question marks and things they want to see from them to avoid having to move them up and down over the year, starting Tallet is a way to use your organizational depth, and opens up a bullpen spot for one of the reclaimation arm projects in Zincola, Merkin, or the other fifteen guys jammed into it.

by dexfarkin on Mar 8, 2010 1:38 PM EST reply actions

Mills, Ray

Hugo has hit the nail on the head. A lot of “wild over the plate” pitches go unpunished in the minors. Whether or not a pitcher can get MLB hitters out is all that counts.

At the major league level, Mills looked like he lacked both velocity and location. Ray looked like he had a lot more potential, but he was inconsistent.

At their advanced ages (for minor league prospects) neither could be traded for value at present. If I had to bet money, I’d say that neither will make the Blue Jays opening day rotation now or in the future. Too many better arms in the organization.

by SirJock on Mar 9, 2010 11:32 AM EST reply actions