Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting.
by Tom Dakers on Apr 19, 2010 11:51 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintOne of my favorite Yogi Berra quotes, thought he says he didn't say all the things he said. Anyway, we chased Denbo out of town because the team was taking too many pitches. Now, well we are swinging at everything and things aren't great. Maybe there is a middle ground somewhere.
We've struck out 109 times now, leading the league by a bunch. Cito has said he isn't worried about our strikeouts because 'we are a team of power hitters and power hitters strikeout a lot'. You think maybe this is part of the problem? Maybe we could tell them they are allowed to cut down on the swing some? At least when we get to two strikes? Most of the time, guys seem to be going up there with the idea of hitting a homer.
Maybe we could try to get some guys on base too. We shall see, shouldn't judge a time when it is going bad or when it is going good. But watching guys strikeout is less than fun.
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The question is, and I don’t have the pitch f/x data on hand, but are they taking pitches and are they swinging at good pitches and just not getting results?
Apart from Ruiz and Overbay, I haven’t noticed anyone just hacking away consistantly. Even Snider has seemed to cut back on his tendancy to chase the breaking balls. However, from just watching, it doesn’t seem like they are rushing an approach at the plate, just not getting results right now.
based on the pitch data
Overbay’s approach is way off (obviously a small sample size alert). He is swinging at way more pitches (6% more than in his career and 11% more than in 2009), both inside the strike zone (9% more than in his career and 13% more than last season) and outside of it (8% more than in his career and 10% more than last season). He is actually making contact at in-zone pitches more often, but, as will happen when you are swinging at more out-of-zone pitches, he’s missing more of those for more swinging strikes than he’s ever had before.
He’s never been a great breaking ball hitter but in the past he has used his plate discipline to get into fastball counts and turn the number 1s into hits. So far this season, he hasn’t been doing that, so he hasn’t seen as many fastballs (and the ones he is seeing, he’s not hitting). That’s the logical conclusion when you’re swinging at too many pitchers’ pitches. He is also hitting way more fly balls and way fewer line drives than typical Lyle.
Ruiz, well, he’s just swinging at everything, including more than half the pitches he’s seen outside of the strike zone. Whoops. No one is going to throw him a fastball unless he learns to lay off the crap (already he is seeing 10% fewer fastballs than last season).
Travis Snider’s approach actually looks very solid. His walk rate is way up and he is swinging at relatively few pitches outside of the zone while keeping his contact rates steady. Fastballs have actually given him the most trouble, and you have to figure that if he keeps his approach consistent, his timing will click back and he’ll start smacking them around. You don’t get as far as he has without being able to hit a fastball.
All data from fangraphs.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Snider
Based on my casual observation, he looks much, much better at the plate than he did a year ago. Overbay and Ruiz have looked much, much worse.
So it’s nice to see that the fangraphs back up my observations. I always appreciate it when I’m not out to lunch like that, as I often am.
Nice work Hugo, thanks.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
At this point
It’s like Overbay and Ruiz are trying way too hard, much like Snider was last year.
Overbay is swinging away and just trying to hit everything and get out of his slump anyway he can as fast as he can. He knows he’s in a hole and probably beats himself up every game when it doesn’t work.
Ruiz is swinging away and just trying to hit everything to justify his bench spot, especially with Lewis being his new bench buddy. He knows he’s there for his bat and if he doesn’t show it off, he’s might lose his spot when Hill comes back.
Confidence (at least for Overbay) is flowing from The Manager to them, so what else needs to happen?
Ball.
Swing % is one of the fastest stats to stabilize
It only takes 50 PAs.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
that's true
we talked about that very thing recently in the sample size fanpost
That said, the fact that it is statistically significant or that it has stabilized doesn’t necessarily mean it will continue, of course.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Right, but the point is that this isn't just hitting into bad luck
that we expect to even out. It’s being terrible, and nothing will get better until he stops being terrible.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
yep, that was my point all along too!
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Power Hitters?
Since when did this team become a “team of power hitters?” Has anyone on this team ever hit 40 homers? Telling them that they are power hitters just makes them think that strike outs are okay. I hope that Cito tells them to hit in situations rather than swing for the fences all of the time. It was probably not a good thing that we opened the year in two homerun hitter ballparks.
Yeah, "team of power hitters" gave me the giggles too
How many do you think break 20 HR this season? My guesses:
Easy: Lind, Hill, Wells
Possibly: Ruiz, Snider, EE
Not a chance: Rest of the team
Ruiz is conditional on Cito telling him “Relax, you’re going to bat in 4 games a week, so you don’t need to keep hacking and going for the HR to avoid being sent back to the minors”. I have no doubt that Ruiz is going for the bomb each time because he’s thinking that each at bat might be his last and an HR might buy him a reprieve. If Cito keeps Ruiz consistently on the bench, move him into the “Not a chance” crew.
I put Snider in the list because I’m hoping he figures out ML pitching a bit and starts to hit mistakes hard. Here’s hoping.
I would define a power hitter differently. If you narrow your definition of a power hitter to someone who can hit 40 HRs you’re looking at a list of about 7 or 8 guys in all of baseball. The way I look at it, you’ve got 3 major skills:
- hitting for average
- drawing walks
- hitting for power
If you do one of those things MUCH more than the rest, you’re that “kind” of hitter. So to me John Buck is a power hitter … he’s just not a GOOD one. His isolated power is consistently pretty solid. His ISO of around .200 is fine, that’s the same as guys like Matt Holliday and Hanley Ramirez last season, but he just doesn’t make contact anywhere near as much. When he does, he hits for power. You could say the same thing about EE, and to a certain extent Wells & Hill too, their primary tool seems to be power. Even Lind’s primary value comes from his power.
I would agree with your approach
though Lind is a more complete hitter and with Wells it sort of depends on the season
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I agree. Lind was kind of an afterthought, where I was noting that the scale tips a LITTLE for him (and I believe it does) but not nearly as dramatically as the others.
i actually really like that analysis
though as hugo said it might not necessarily be fair to plop someone into one of the three categories, like Lind
Oh I agree. I didn’t really drop Lind in there so much as I noted afterwards that power is probably the best of his tools, which wasn’t an attempt to put him in there with them. It’s a generalization for sure, so there’s always going to be guys who are clear cut and guys who are more varied. Which is also why we shouldn’t read too much into it .. it’s a good way to quickly look at things as long as you don’t put too much stock in it.
stop putting so much stock
into Lind’s power!
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Maybe we could tell them they are allowed to cut down on the swing some? At least when we get to two strikes? Most of the time, guys seem to be going up there with the idea of hitting a homer.
This is a tough situation. For the veterans, it’s really tough to get a guy like John Buck or Vernon Wells to change their approach to hitting at this point. For a guy like Travis Snider, not so much. So I think you have to be careful with who you change and how much. Cito’s plan isn’t perfect and won’t work for every hitter, but I think it’s proven to work in the past. And fwiw I think it’s less about “hit a hr” and more about “wait for your pitch, and then drive it”. It just so happens a lot of these guys (Bautista, Buck, EE, Ruiz) like to kill the ball. Buck and Ruiz are so out of control sometimes I think they probably strike out during batting practice.
Mike Wilner -
the Jays after game radio host thinks that Cito is continuing to play Overbay out of spite (against Overbay) who complained a lot last year about his playing time.
I don't get that theory.
So Wilner is arguing that Cito is continuing to play Overbay everyday so he continues to struggle in his contract year?
A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar
by craig in calgary on Apr 19, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Cito believes
that Overbay may have been part of the alleged “mutiny” last year and subsequently does not particularly like him. If Overbay keeps failing after another two weeks he can say to Overbay, “See, we gave you the chance to play everyday,” and Overbay will be silenced once and for all.
by Muscle-Dolphin on Apr 19, 2010 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Who cares what he thinks?
Does a manager really need an excuse to sit a player who’s hitting well below .100 after 2 weeks?
If Overbay was part of the “mutiny”, thats even more reason to sit his ass on the bench.
I just don’t get what playing him does except put a large hole in the middle of the order.
A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar
by craig in calgary on Apr 19, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
There is a time to yank and a time to slap. Depending on what the count is and how well you know a pitcher, this all comes into play when taking an AB. Baseball is a game of playing the odds, but you can’t become totally predictable, sometimes you have to roll the dice. Good teams have an excellant feel for this.
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