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Around SBN: The Ten Worst Swings Of The 2011 Season

April Reflections on the Blue Jays

 

APRIL is the cruelest month, breeding

 

Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing

 

Memory and desire, stirring

 

Dull roots with spring rain.

                                                                        -T.S. Eliot, the Wasteland

            It’s been an interesting April here in Blue Jay land.  It’s been something of purgatory for the Jays, so far, with many key players from better-than-you-thought late aughts teams -- Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, Marco Scutaro, Alexis Rios -- gone but many of the guys who are slated (at least in our dreams, guilty as charged of "mixing memory and desire") to be the next great Jays team not yet making major-league contributions.  So we are left with a lot of in-betweeners playing key roles, guys like Jose Bautista, John Buck, Brian Tallet, Dana Eveland getting a ton of face time.   Only 4 of the 9 players currently making up the Jays’ starting lineup have anything resembling a future in a Blue Jays uniform. 

            One piece of the future who is up with the big team has been Travis Snider, and while the results haven’t been as expected (.127/.257/.254), there are some reasons to be optimistic going forward.  A 23.4% line drive rate (14.9% last season in the bigs).  Over 4 pitches per plate appearance (3.6 P/PA last season).  Walking 15% of the time (10.5% in 2009), while striking out 25% of the time (a third of the time in 2009).  And a ridiculous .133 BABIP.  Give him time. 

            Adam Lind is doing his best to show that his huge 2009 wasn’t a fluke and has been hitting the ball well of late.  Aaron Hill got off to a slow start, hampered by a hamstring injury, but is back now.  Vernon Wells has turned heads with a fast start to the 2010 season (.333/.400/.716) with 17 extra base hits in 21 games.  On the pitching side, the returning Shaun Marcum has been mostly terrific while with sophomore southpaw Ricky Romero, you can omit mostly from that construction.  

            The others have been either better than expected (Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez) or not (John Buck, Lyle Overbay, Brian Tallet), up and down (Dana Eveland, pretty much the whole bullpen), or hurt (Edwin Encarnacion) but let’s face it – it really doesn’t matter unless you thought that someone was going to give up a lot for one of these fellows in a trade.

            The important thing is who will man these positions going forward, not who is keeping their places warm now.  First base prospect Brett Wallace is tearing up AAA and looking like a viable everyday player down the stretch, if the Jays find a place to stash Overbay.  Catcher J.P. Arencibia is hitting very well in AAA himself in an effort to rehabilitate his prospect status after a terrible and injury-hampered 2009, and has made strides on defense.  Lefty starter Brett Cecil has already found himself promoted to the bigs after a hot start and the early returns have been quite good.  Fellow lefty starters Marc Rzepczynski (broken finger) and Brad Mills (rib injury in 2009 but off to a great start in AAA) don’t look to be all that far behind.  The Brandon Morrow experiment is ongoing.  Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart, starting pitchers that came back in the trades for Halladay and Rolen, respectively, are pitching at AA and having some significant, if qualified, success there, while 2009 first-round pick Chad Jenkins just had his first dominant start (8 shutout innings, striking out 9 and walking one) in A ball.  Exciting young starter Henderson Alvarez is mowing them down in high-A ball.  And there are some early discouraging performances and injuries in the minors too.   But this is what really matters, not whether Randy Ruiz should be seeing more at-bats than Lyle Overbay (he shouldn’t) at first, whether Jose Bautista is really good enough to play every day (so far, so good, though the career platoon splits aren’t favourable), or whether manager Cito Gaston has been missing opportunities to pinch-hit (almost certainly yes, though yesterday was a strange aberration). 

            For my part, I’m enjoying 2010, and plan on enjoying it even more as the pieces of the future play increasingly important roles in the team.  Lilacs being bred out of the dead land, dull roots being stirred by spring rain and all that.  That may take some time so patience is required at this point.  I don’t expect unqualified success, but it will be fun to see. 

  Also posted at Baseball Reflections  

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Well said, although...
For my part, I’m enjoying 2010, and plan on enjoying it even more as the pieces of the future play increasingly important roles in the team. Lilacs being bred out of the dead land, dull roots being stirred by spring rain and all that. That may take some time so patience is required at this point. I don’t expect unqualified success, but it will be fun to see.

Hugo, I whole heartedly agree with you regarding the patience needed, and I think it’s a shame that so many “fans” are all about “Success Now”, and nothing about showing up at games and giving some support for the jays.

However, While the lack of commitment by some of the “fans” is annoying, I worry more about what I hope are false symptoms of a lack in commitment of the front office. And by that I mean Whoever picked and signed the coaching staff.
I was an ardent advocate of “Give-Cito-a-Chance” last year and this Spring training. Not anymore. I don’t know who’s responsible for the hitting woes, or the bull-penn woes (mostly the players themeselves, granted, but the coaches are on the pay-roll for a reason), but something seems to be seriously out of whack.

Before the “small-sample-size” guys jump me, I’ll add that I’m aware of their opinion…

I believe in waiting out on up-and-coming players (such as Snider) or slumping hitters (Overbay) because they can make adaptions and get better. But I lost my patience with a manager that is a self-proclaimed unadaptable person. And with all due respect to Beeston and co. ( and I do have that respect) I don’t buy the lame excuse of “treating Cito with th respect we owe him” (I do hope it’s something concocted by the media) for keeping him around when we desperately need a manager that will help players develop.

Sorry. I was at yesterday’s game. It was as frustrating as it gets.

just my 2p

Festina Lente

by HESS2479 on Apr 29, 2010 11:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Don't be sorry

You aren’t the only frustrated one.

by Tom Dakers on Apr 29, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm probably a small sample size guy that is frustrating you.

Overbay is not a small sample size. He hasn’t really hit since 2007, and I don’t see him turning out of it now. I don’t understand the organizations commitment to him. Snider on the other hand, I’m fine with plugging him in the bottom 1/3 of the batting order all year and sort himself out.

I don’t know why people that are hard on our players (Overbay, Buck, E5) are less fans just because we don’t pledge blind allegance to them. The 3 guys I mentioned above are not going to be around when the Jays return to the playoffs and if I want to say “Buck is a bum” under my breath after he strikes out 3 times on a total of 9 pitches, it doesn’t make me less of a fan.

A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar

by craig in calgary on Apr 29, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Overbay is not a small sample size. He hasn’t really hit since 2007blockquote>

Except he had a fine year at the plate last year. That’s why when you say ‘Overbay is a bum’, it sounds like unsupported griping as opposed to reasoned criticism. We’re all fans here, and we all want the team to do well. I just wish a lot of the speculation and personal attacks weren’t presented as fact and absolute truth.

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not going to be preached to by someone who can't figure out a simple blockquote :)

I’m a fan, and a pationate fan, I don’t need/want to be reasonable.
I have no idea why there is a hole in Overbays swing. Instead of sayinging “It appears he is dipping his right shoulder” or “his stance is too open” I yell at my TV and switch over to 2 1/2 men.

A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar

by craig in calgary on Apr 29, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

I yell at my TV and switch over to 2 1/2 men.

That alone should disqualify you from ever commenting on anything ever again =)

Seriously, though, Overbay was very effective last season because he was used correctly. In 2008 he was very good against righties but too many at-bats against lefties dragged down his numbers. While this year his numbers against righties (.198/.313/.375 is bad but quite saveable with a small hot streak) aren’t good and indicative of some approach problems he hasn’t typically had over his career it’s the lefties (2-21 on the season, with no walks) that are killing any chance he has of having a good year (right now dragging his OPS down 100 points), even as he has been hitting better lately. It still boggles the mind how some people thought that him seeing lefties everyday would increase his trade value, but that’s another story. Still, he’s not the one penciling himself into the lineup everyday.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK

But don’t complain when someone ignores your opinion as another boorish fan like the ilk that think closers have to ‘look mean’ and Joe Carter deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.

I get p***ed at the television too when Overbay swings through a hittable pitch or Hill chases ball four off the plate. And I yell just as loud when Tallet gets sent out for the 6th when he’s obviously lost it or JMac is up to the plate in the ninth when we’re down a run. But statements like ‘Overbay sucks!’ or ‘Cito is clueless!’ aren’t about creating dialogue; it’s just demagoguery without any substance behind it.

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Difference being

I yell it at the TV, yell at my dog, but generally don’t take it onto BBB. I may not be the most eloquent member of BBB but I think you all can agree I generally am not overly belligerent. The only exception to the rule was last year in Baltimore when the Jays lost a 7 run lead after the 7th inning on a day Doc pitched. That day noone behaved themselves.

A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar

by craig in calgary on Apr 29, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

the Brian Wolfe game

just thinking about it….

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s fair, but you seem to be saying two things. That people who critize a player are not considered real fans, and from the context, that statement was about on-line. Did I misunderstand and you were only talking about the general fan in a conversation at the game or in a pub, that kind of thing?

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't even know what I'm saying.

When I was at the pub last year and Vernon was a perpetual popup machine I would yell and scream and rant and rave. I would probably do more yelling and screaming on BBB but I realized that is not accepted, and I actually like that about it here. It took some getting used to, but I enjoy blogging during games and I don’t want the dreaded red card.

The whole point is by calling Vernon a Bum, I don’t think it makes me less of a fan. It may make me a bad intollerable person, but I’m ok with that. Clearly the Ownership wishes there was more people like me because at some point in Mid august there will be 4,900 people at a Jays game. I’d rather have a belligerent fanbase than an apathetic fanbase, which Jays have now.

A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar

by craig in calgary on Apr 29, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

That Helps
The whole point is by calling Vernon a Bum, I don’t think it makes me less of a fan.

No, you’re right. It doesn’t make you any less of a fan, but it does devalue the currency of your opinion in an actual discussion. I’m speaking in general terms, and not specific to you, by the way. The people who jump on to the Star’s comment pages saying ‘Vernon sucks’ are just white noise, and there’s no proof that their opinion is based on anything legitimate. Even if it is, the generalized insult still immediately frames the person as someone who’s willing to omit information that doesn’t fit into their already decided on opinion. Or the people who state as fact things that they can’t know; for example, the ‘Overbay doesn’t care’ crowds floating around.

I think a primacy of those kinds of generate passionate, but also wholly obnoxious fanbases like the Red Sox Nation and the Bronx Zoo. The owners take it to the bank with a smile, but as a fan, I don’t really want to be part of the culture that comes along with that; trashing hats and shirts of the other team on visitors, threats and harassment of opposing fans, intentionally vomiting on children, etc.

It’s a balance, and the Jays seemed to have it in the 80s and mid 90s. I’d like to see that happen again.

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I never said that

people that are hard on our players (Overbay, Buck, E5)
are less fans. My only complaint was about the Toronto “Fanbase” that shows up at games only if payroll is above 100M$.

I got down hard on Buck and EE (and Accardo, for that matter) more than once. That does not make me less of a fan…
Tom’s “admiration” for K.Millar didn’t make him less of a fan, either…

Festina Lente

by HESS2479 on Apr 29, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

...

Being a fan means being frustrated when someone isn’t playing well IMO. I always change the channel when I get mad at my fav team. I usually just cool down then start watching again. I think the team is good right now and was totally confused when people were saying were going to lose 100 games. There are just 2 many good arms. Imagine if we had at least Rolen, but even Doc and Rios in the lineup. There’s no reason that lineup with mayb an addition of a 1B couldn’t be a playoff team.

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's a lot of reasons

They look great now, but this is Apr 29. Those are young arms that could blow up at any time. Rios’ numbers are about the same as Bautista, so I don’t really see him as the savior. Yeah, Doc and Rolen would make us stronger, no doubt, but they don’t really alter the fundamental weaknesses of the team.

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't like Rios

but its nice to look at the team you could have and say they would make the playoffs :)

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cecil is looking awesome and I really like the way the three amigos (Romero, Cecil and Rzep) are shaping up Bodes well for the future, a future as early as next year.

The only thing Cecil has to work on is getting his pitch counts down a bit to carry him through 7 more easily and a bit better stamina, but these I expect to come with time. Looking great so far.

by aagoodfella on Apr 29, 2010 11:26 AM EDT reply actions  

Cecil has looked awsome, I really hope he keeps it up

Just to keep Tallet out of the Rotation. I like him but he’s to up and down to be a starter and on a “rebuilding” team the young arms need the innings

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

If someone told me right before April started that the Jays would be hovering just below .500 at the end of the month and would I be happy with it, the answer would have been yes.

Great young rotation, snakebit bullpen, lots of offensive woes but some real positives mixed in. We’ve mostly lost to better teams, and beaten the teams we should have beaten. I’m not unhappy with that.

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 11:44 AM EDT reply actions  

couldn't agree more

seeing Marcum come back so seamlessly and Romero pitching so well, and now seeing Cecil start to emerge, those have been huge positives.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Indeed

Three Jays have carried no-hitters into the seventh already, and against decent offensive teams. Morrow and Eveland have had their ups and downs, but they’ve shown some quality stuff. Romero especially is really attacking the plate, and keeping those walks down like he needs to. Now if they could get a little more agile with his curveball and cut down those wild pitches, it would be better.

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wooot Marcum,

Was my fav, and still is. I’m so happy he’s pitching well. Now the bats just need to score some runs. It’s a little embarrasing that both him and Ricky have 1 win between the 2.

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I had a complaint about Marcum

He needs some new aftershave balm. He looks like he always had bad razor burn on his neck.

Looks painful.

A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar

by craig in calgary on Apr 29, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I liked him a lot more before i read his online chat thing today

HIs favorite bands were… disappointing.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Apr 29, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Snider

He has the lowest BABIP according to fangraphs of anyone in the majors this season. The balls will start fiding places in time, right? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=0

by icedbecker2007 on Apr 29, 2010 11:58 AM EDT reply actions  

I noticed Vernon was quite high on that list.

Funny how we always have excuses why Snider is doing so poorly, but never poo-poo Vernon for being lucky.

Wow, I must be grouchy this morning.
No coffee this morning, thats my problem.
Off to Timmys.

A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar

by craig in calgary on Apr 29, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep

That is definately fair to say. In defense of Vernon though he is hitting with a lot more power which isn’t reflected on BABIP at least in terms of HR’s. I haven’t been able to watch many games, but when Snider does put the ball in play, where is it going, is he hitting in sharply or just bouncers back to the mound?

by icedbecker2007 on Apr 29, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I rarely see Snider hit the ball sharply

although i guess if his LD% is 23.4% he must be hitting a few hard.

It seems every time i see one of his at bats he strikes out or hits a soft ground ball.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Apr 29, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

funny, every time I see him make an out he is hitting the ball hard

luckily, we have the data to sort that out

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

see below

Snider’s line drive rates and other batted ball data suggest his BABIP should be north of .300

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

you can def tell Vern is feeling great.

only prob will be if he tweaks something, does he regress right back to the can’t hit a thing guy? Hope not

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

fair point

 I don’t expect Wells to hit .333 this season, but he’s hitting more line drives (over 22% LD%) this season so I’m not sure he’s been particularly “lucky” on those balls in play, though I agree some regression in that area might be expected. but even if you correct for xBABIP (expected BABIP based on batted ball data and speed) or Vernon’s career BABIP, he’d still be doing extremely well offensively, he just wouldn’t be getting on base 40% of the time (which makes sense, he’s never come close to done that before). On the other hand, Snider’s LD% (23.4%) suggests his BABIP should be much, much higher than it is. If you correct it for xBABIP or even league average BABIP, his numbers would actually look very good. So the two situations aren’t really comparable.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Question Hugo

What are the factors that you should look at when determing if someone’s BABIP is “lucky”? I guess I am asking at what point should a red flag be raised if someone has a high BABIP? Is it .330 for example? Also I am assuming this can’t be looked at in a vaccum, so what other tools do you look at to evaluate BABIP?

by icedbecker2007 on Apr 29, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I realize I wasn't asked, but...

According to this wonderful fanpost, the number in 2009 was .299. If you are well over that, clearly the Baseball Gods loved you

A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar

by craig in calgary on Apr 29, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

it's not as simple as just looking at league average, though

 The biggest factor is line drive rate. One rule of thumb is to add 100-120 points to a players line drive rate e.g., if you hit 20% line drives, your expected BABIP is a bit above .300. That makes sense as an average BABIP is about .300 and average line drive rate is about 19%. So if your actual BABIP is .360, you’re getting lucky. If your actual BABIP is .220, you’re unlucky. Also, in a general sense, the more line drives you’re hitting, the more hits you should get on balls in play, because line drives are much more likely to end up as hits than grounders or non-HR fly balls (the only ones that count towards BABIP). There is a limit, though, to how many line drives major-leaguers can hit. If someone has a 35% line drive rate and a .370 BABIP, they might not have been getting “lucky” exactly, but they are also unlikely to keep up that line drive rate (and that BABIP) – things will normalize out.

But line drive rate isn’t the only factor. Speed plays a significant role, because grounders are more likely to be hits when Carl Crawford is running than when Jose Molina is. By the same token, you’d think there might be a slight bump for being lefthanded, and for other types of batted ball data. Here is a good article about it in the Hardball Times, and here’s a x(expected)BABIP calculator.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its curious to see people excusing Sniders poor play because of his low BABIP

But everyone can still hate on Overbay even though he has a .212 BABIP, 9th worst in the league.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Apr 29, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

no one is excusing Snider's poor play because Snider has not, in fact, played poorly

he’s getting very unlucky. His approach and batted ball stats are much better than they were last season. By the same token, Lyle Overbay’s approach stats and batted ball stats are much worse than last season so far. You can make the case that he has been unlucky, too, but he actually is playing poorly (and being used incorrectly, but that’s another story).

You can’t just look at BABIP in a vacuum. Snider is hitting line drives over 23% of the time. Overbay is hitting line drives 14.8% of the time. That’s very bad for a guy who has, throughout his career, been a big line drive hitter. Meanwhile Overbay’s BABIP is over 80 points higher than Snider’s. So it’s just not comparable.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

The defense rests.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Apr 29, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess the stats tell a different story than what i see when i watch the games

It just looks to me like Snider has huge holes in his swing… plus it seems like hes hitting a bunch of soft ground balls.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Apr 29, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really think the Jays should keep Zach Stewart in the bullpen.

Our pen sucks right now. Frasor is a bum and Downs is nothing more than a lefty specialist who had one good season. Camp is the only guy who looks good for us right now.

You look at teams like the Sox who have guys like Daniel Bard who can just mow guys down and give you a scoreless inning when you really need it.
We have plenty of young starters, but a strong, consistent young arm in the pen is something that could be useful too.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Apr 29, 2010 12:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Downs is nothing more than a lefty specialist who had one good season.

ludicrous. Downs by year

2005 – 104 ERA+, 2.21 K/BB, 1.35 Whip
2006 – 112 ERA+, 2.03 K/BB, 1.34 Whip
2007 – 207 ERA+, 2.38 K/BB, 1.22 Whip
2008 – 238 ERA+, 2.11 K/BB, 1.15 Whip
2009 – 141 ERA+, 3.31 K/BB, 1.26 Whip

Even if you argue 2005 and 2006 were only “okay” (I’d argue in the AL East and considering he was doing some starting those seasons, it’s better), that’s 3 very good years.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wallce-Taylor deal

Should be a win-win trade for both teams.

Wallace inability to play 3b longterm, made him available. A’s have been hyping daric barton for years and is finally showing it at the mlb level. His approach is very wallace like, but with less power and more defense. Also they have chris carter at that 1b logjam.
Wallace has seemed to re work his swing for more power which could be huge for his upside. It will be interesting to see how jays rotate ab’s with wallace, arincibia, lind, and snider at some point who all have good bats, but defensive issues.
Taylor’s offensive start has been solid, but not as good as wallace. Yet has flashed his wide range of skills with SB’s, 4 triples, and even said to have CF capability by their farm director. Call me skeptical, but we’ll see. Cant see a 6’6" lasting in cf longterm.

by MagicMike23 on Apr 29, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Anyone think our poor play at Rogers Centre is affected by the poor attendance?

I know the sample size police may issue me a ticket, but:

Home: 4-9 .226/.285/.408 ERA: 4.72

Away: 6-3 .224/.311/.452 ERA: 4.14

One thing not shown in those offensive splits is “clutchiness”, i havent seen every game this year but it seems we have more timely hitting on the road.

I never thought poor attendance affected a teams performance, but I’ve never seen attendance this poor. Are we just lucky on the road and unlucky at home so far, or is there more to it?

by ucantcoachthat on Apr 29, 2010 2:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm not sure if you're onto something or not

but I do know that players really, really hate playing for mostly-empty home crowds

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mayb

I think it might be the just started off hot, and on the road, after May I think we’ll have a better idea.

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Observations.

The Jays poor record so far can be attributed to one person and he is the last remaining piece of incompetence in Toronto. Cito Gaston is managing every game to lose, through stupidity and bad judgement. Whether it is putting in the wrong pitcher at the wrong time, penciling a lineup of players hitting .125 and struggling, or doing nothing to surprise the opposition, it all ends with the same result. – Another loss in the standings.

People here can look at statistics all they want, but there is one thing they can’t ignore. If a player is batting .126 and killing innings every time he comes to bat, he is a liability on the team and is sent down, regardless if he is hitting linedrives most of the time through statistics. Production keeps guys in the majors and all the potential in the world means nothing if they consistantly strike out or kill innings when they play. Snider is another Brandon Wood in Anaheim and this is his make or break season. If he continues to struggle, he should be traded, regardless what his potential could be.

Gaston puts players in situations to fail, not succeed and he has all the vision of an earthworm. Every game is the same and he refuses to run, exercise bunts, hit and runs, etc or pinch hit for players that struggle against certain pitchers late in games. Overbay is in the lineup every day for one reason. Gaston is quoted as saying that he is a free agent and wants him to secure a lucrative contract for next year, regardless how many games he loses for the team this year.

Gaston kept going with Accardo etc, when he knew that he gave up runs every time he appeared on the mound. He will have Camp burned out by June through overuse, the same way he destroyed Janssens arm in 08 and Carlson in 09. Now that Roenicke, the closer in Las Vegas and Lewis, the set up pitcher for the eighth are called up to replace Valdez, who never got a fair chance this year, it will be interesting to see how often they are used in late innings. To sum it up in a nutshell, Wallace will replace Overbay in June, Ruiz will continue to veg on the bench, and Snider will be left to self destruct in the lineup every chance Gaston has to destroy any confidence he currently has in himself. It is time for a new manager to take over in Toronto, that works well with young players and helps them succeed. As long as Gaston runs the show, fans will be left frustrated and very angry at his stupidity in the dugout.

Games are won and lost on the field, not through calculators and statistics that mean absolutely nothing in the games. There are many here that put statistics ahead of anything else, but when the player strikes out twenty times in a row with the bases loaded and the game on the line, what good did they do, if the stats say they hit line drives 40 percent of the time. Anyone that puts their faith in stats to make players appear better than they really are, are dillusional and have destroyed the fun of just watching the game for what it is. The game is simple. Throw the ball – hit the ball – score one run more than the opposition and win the game. Everything else means nothing, but it looks good on paper. Teams are always world series champions on paper, but in reality, they lose 100 games a year and all the statistics fans throw around meant absolutely nothing at the end of October.

by logicdictates on Apr 29, 2010 3:21 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with 99% of what you said.

I disagree with your take on Snider and Wood.
Both are going to be very good and to sell them for a ham sandwich at this point would be a mistake.
Are we going to get another prospect for Snider than trade that guy if/when he struggles at 21 years old?

A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar

by craig in calgary on Apr 29, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can't give up on Snider

Hes too young and I agree your not going to get the potential back.

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

what good did they do, if the stats say they hit line drives 40 percent of the time

bear with me here, because I know this is out there, but what if the player in question actually did hit line drives, not in a stat-computer fantasy world, but, like, in the games? And the stats were, not some pretend fantasy calculator reality, but, like, a way of compiling data of what actually happened during the games in an effort to better understand them? what would logic dictate then?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stupidity and Incompetence

Remember what I just said about the currency of opinion? You can disagree with Gaston all you want and for all the right reasons, but unless you happen to have forty successful years of professional baseball experience under your belt, calling his decisions to be based on stupidity and incompetence simply makes your opinions worthless.

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

some things aren't worth responding to, but

a. Brandon Wood, 25 yrs old: career: 302 PA, .191 / .220 / .299, 36 OPS+
    Travis Snider, 22 years old: career: 431 PA, .233 / .317 / .399, 91 OPS+

Travis Snider is three years younger, has already had more major league time and OPSes 200 points better. How, exactly, do they seem similar to you?

how, exactly, did Cito “destroy” Janssen’s arm in 2008? You do realize that Janssen was hurt in Spring Training of 2008 and John Gibbons was still managing at the time, right?

c. which teams were “world series champions on paper, but in reality, [lost] 100 games”?

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Apr 29, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

:)

Cito did overkill on Carlson, but yay Casey was just wear and tear on the shoulder.

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have to say, I find your diatribe against "statistics" amusing
Whether it is putting in the wrong pitcher at the wrong time, penciling a lineup of players hitting .125 and struggling

Oooh! Statistic!!!


If a player is batting .126 and killing innings every time he comes to bat

Statistic! Nerd!!!!!

Production keeps guys in the majors and all the potential in the world means nothing if they consistantly strike out or kill innings when they play

strike outs! hitting with runners on! statistics! statistics! booooo!

when the player strikes out twenty times in a row with the bases loaded and the game on the line

Not statistics again! Situational hitting splits?! Get your head out of your statbook, geek!

See, you don’t dislike statistics. You just don’t like statistics that don’t support your opinions, or statistics you don’t understand. That’s actually quite sad.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Only 42% of em?

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Apr 29, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

nah all of them.

If I was to say Kevin Millar is worth 10 wins because of his clubhouse presence, how can you argue with it. It is a perfect stat. Can’t argue it at all cause you have no idea what it means.

by Tom Dakers on Apr 29, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

The clubhouse presence is actually worth:

5 wins on a 100 loss team
10 wins on a 81 loss team
15 wins on a playoff team
and 20 wins on a championship team. :P

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's why your VORB

(value over replacement blogger) is so low

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was last year...

I had carpal tunnel syndrome. Now I can hit that shift key without hesitation, I’m clearly at least a game over replacement.

by Tom Dakers on Apr 29, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

are you sure you didn't succumb to performance-enhancers

“to get back on the field for your teammates”

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Better then me. Im just here for clubhouse presence.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Apr 29, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

The stats don’t recognize your intangibles.

by dexfarkin on Apr 29, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

he does the things that don't show up in the boxscore

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Like use a Linkin Park Lyric in a game thread and get a ban threat :)

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Apr 29, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's worth at least a run over replacement just by itself...

Linkin Park….much better to be like Hugo and make up bands.

by Tom Dakers on Apr 29, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

screw you Dakers

Just because I’m in a band doesn’t mean it’s made up

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 8:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I deny the suggestion I used PED

I bought them for my wife, honest. Purse shopping is a competitive world.

by Tom Dakers on Apr 29, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

She is going to kill you if she reads the site today

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Apr 29, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

I’ve mentioned this before- Gaston is totally tanking the season. He’s playing guys that really shouldn’t be playing prominent roles on this team (Overbay, Buck, E5, Tallet) over guys that should be given opportunities to play (Ruiz, Molina, Bautista at 3rd and Cecil, respectively) based on their better performances.

by bleh on Apr 29, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

ooo Buck

he hasn’t hit that well, but was anyone expecting him 2?

by L0ngball on Apr 29, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really but Molina seems to handle the staff better and pitchers seem to perform better when he catches over Buck. Molina’s not the greatest of hitters either but, if you’re bringing a young staff along, it seems the best move to to play a guy that handles pitchers well.

by bleh on Apr 29, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed--if neither will hit

play the one who does everything else better.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Apr 29, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't disagree and I was happy to see

The Jays take my suggestion and have Molina catch Morrow again. It didn’t work out, but it was a good thought

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Apr 29, 2010 8:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

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