It's a Sunny Day, Big Fight! Cobra versus Mongoose! Big Fight, We Can't Wait Forever - Wednesday Links

Shonen Knife’s cover of ‘Daydream Believer’ is one of the most unintentionally hilarious songs ever.

I predicted 89!!! wins at the Battersbox. There was loose rationale. My expectations are certainly closer to 75 wins, but I decided that there was potential for both the offense and pitching staff to perform above average and potential to be lucky, so I bet the farm!

On offense, I think there’s potential for DH to put up a .900 OPS, for LF/CF/2B/3B/1B to put up an .800+ OPS, for RF to put up a .750 OPS and SS/C to put up a .700+ OPS. I don’t think this is a “stars align” projection, but less than an “odds on” projection. This would likely result in an average to above average offense. We’ll say 2.0 GAF (games above five-hundred).

For pitching, I think it’s possible for the starting five to have an average ERA of around 4.50, which would likely be good for an average to slightly average starting rotation. We’ll say 1.0 GAF. The bullpen looks solid at both ends, depsite game one failures. If it stays together, I’ll say a 1.0 GAF.

Add in 4 wins of luck and we have 8.0 GAF or 89 wins.

Note: This science is rudimentary and dangerous and shouldn’t be practiced at home.

I am glad to hear that about Snider. I did not see the game, but looked at the box score and Snider’s numbers were not pretty. Good to hear that he is improving in PAs.

In my new post i linked to John Lott’s article about Vernon’s charity work in Texas. the take away- he’s a Hall of Fame man even if he’s an ordinary player.

that said, I expect a regression to career norms at least this year.

Also, I guess it’s gone up elsewhere here by now but Adeiny is in the house! Hopefully we get a press conference soon.

The Southpaw thinks the Jays are good for 83 wins this season. I haven’t seen anyone else predict a better season with any real basis. Finishing .500 is essentially meaningless but in a rebuilding year it’d be pretty encouraging. It’s certainly possible with a bit of luck, and at the risk of engaging in the Monte Carlo fallacy, with the way the Jays have underperformed their pythagorean record the past few seeasons, you can’t help but think they’re due for some good luck.

This is just crazy talk. How exactly do we win 7 more games than last year, when the division generally became more difficult AND we lose Roy Halladay/Marco Scutaro and basically replaced them with zeros. I just don’t understand the logic of some people. I know fans of the club tend to be overly optimistic, but look at the damn facts.

Another thing I don’t get is the optimism with some of the young pitchers we have. Compared to that of other teams, it’s really not that good. I don’t think Zep is going to be that string, I’m sorta lukewarm on Cecil at this point, McGowan is still hurt and has a sketchy track record, and Mills is Triple AAA material. I still have some hope that Litsch can be a solid No. 3 guy however. The ultimate point is, outside of Drabek, the Jays pitching is not very strong and the minor League system is not very good on aggregate still. The good news is that it has been improving, but still vis a vis other clubs we still have a ways to go.

I know we all want the Jays to do well – Im a lifelong fan – but getting overly optimistic will lead to dissapointment. The truth is, the Jays are nowhere near competing for anything, and that it will take a few years of farm system growth to star making traction in the division. Predicting the Jays win 83 games is like predicting the Padres will win the NL West.

And 1 more thing; WTF are we wasting a starting rotation spot of Brian Tallet? He’s basically a two pitch pitcher whose repetoire is lackluster at best. He doesn’t throw hard; he’s a 4.50 ERA guy at his best. Why not give the rotation spot up to a kid to develop? Perhaps that’s the plan when Zep gets back?

 finishing .500 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. It’s not necessarily likely with the tough competition in the AL East, but no one said it was.

- Well, the Southpaw just said it was, from the first link on this thread.

That aside, I’m just not especially bullish on the group of pitchers the Jays have vis a vis other organizations. Actually, let me rephrase that: I’m not especially bullish on the group of pitchers WHICH IS MAJOR LEAGUE READY. I can get fired up about Drabek & Stewart (too early to predict Jenkins & Alvarez IMO) but the Zep’s and Cecil’s and McGowan’s not so much. Morrow has the dual question mark of control/injuries although his stuff is excellent and Eveland is twice an organizational cast-off. Now I’m not saying some of those aforementioned guys won’t be useful 4th or 5th starters or bullpen guys, but no one stands out as front of the rotation type material, save for Drabek AT THIS POINT.

And really it’s those front end guys who make all the difference, especially in our division. Any and all organizations have a plethora of guys who can potentially step in and be 4th or 5th starters; its the front end pitchers who’ll ultimately be the difference in whether the Jays will compete. And I’m just seeing too few of these guys right now.

And I’m not seeing too many position players vis a vis other organizations who will be standouts AT THIS TIME. Looks like Wallace has a chance and D’Arnaud in a couple of years, but that’s it really. The Jays are definitely behind the Orioles in farm talent right now.

Although i’m a Jays fan, i have to say it like it is. I’m down on them now, especially the quality of the young pitching. Its not good enough. Just my opinion!