Burn On, Big River, Burn On: Jays 5, Cleveland 1
by hugo on May 3, 2010 9:51 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Game Recaps
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PrintThe Jays took the opener in the Sixth City (amazing nickname, by the way) tonight behind a strong performance by starter Brett Cecil and some early offense.
On the Mound:
Brett Cecil was spectacular, taking advantage of a somewhat permissive strike zone early on and making the Indians look helpless for the first six innings. After 6 perfect innings, he ran into a bit of trouble in the 7th, issuing two one-out walks and a no-hitter busting, shutout-busting single to Jhonny Peralta. Cecil bounced back to finish the 7th and to pitch a perfect 8th though, finishing with 10 Ks, just 2 walks, and just the one single on the day. Not only that, but 9 of his 13 non-strikeout outs were on the ground.
At the Plate:
The Jays jumped on starter Mitch Talbot early, swinging at practically every first pitch for the first few innings. It paid off, as Jose Bautista hit a 2-run home run in the 2nd and Vernon Wells had a sharp RBI single up the middle the following inning, cashing Aaron Hill, who had a very nice hit at the plate. In the 4th, Travis Snider (who had hit a line drive double earlier) hit an absolute laser beam out in right - the low line drive just cleared the fence and was in the stands in a matter of moments. Very impressive. Adam Lind had an 0fer but he walked twice and hit one ball to the track, so I think it's likely just a matter of time.
That was it for the Jays scoring as Talbot adjusted (he ended up going 8) and they continued their hacktastic ways, until John Buck hit one out in the top of the 9th.
From the Pen:
Because the Jays entered the top of the 9th with a three-run lead, Kevin Gregg was already warming up and so he came in even after the Buck dinger. Gregg wasn't particularly sharp but he got the job done fine.
In the Field:
The Jays didn't have to make many great plays (unlike the Tribe) as Cecil didn't give up many hard-hit balls. I did think Buck called a good game. Though this provoked a bit of consternation in the comments, I must admit I'm not sure why.
All in all, a great game. Cecil has been terrific since we called him up. He, Bautista, and Moonraker earn Jay of the Day honours. Always a great game when no one takes one of the more dubious honours. Tonight's title comes from the Randy Newman song "Burn On" off Sail Away, a truly epic record for anyone who writes songs. It's about the Cuyahoga River, which goes through Cleveland and has been known to catch fire now and again.
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Good to see games like this. Start using pen on putting Cecil in the starting rotation. Different bats are getting it done from game to game over the last few which is also good to see. The pitching is really starting to round out nicely, which is a real positive sign. Marcum, Romero and Cecil, I’m sold on. I need a couple more starts on Morrow to be completely sold on him as a starter, and Eveland is Eveland.
I need a couple more starts on Morrow to be completely sold on him as a starter, and Eveland is Eveland.
I’m with you there too Playa. Don’t want to sound like a broken record, but I don’t like Eveland at all, but then again, he’s the fifth starter, so he should be that good. I also tend to be skeptical of Morrow at this point in time as a starter. Until I see a third quality pitch being thrown, I think his fastball-slider combo will get hit against betting hitting clubs. He has enough stuff to get through with that repetoire against mediocre hitting teams, but he;ll get hit hard against the Rays/Red Sox/Detroits of the world. His fastball is too straight and his slider is too overexposed when thrown to patient hitting teams. Hopefully he can develop that splitter he throws 2-4 times a game.
The good news is that his slider is a tremendous pitch and his 2 to 1 strikes to balls ratio last game. Who knew he could throw strikes that consistently for a whole game?
His FB isnt straight at all
Looking at his last start, it was 94-95 with tailing movement. And he’s always been touted as having a great FB.
And I agree on having him develop a 3rd quality pitch. Unless of course he completely beasts it up with just a FB/Slider combo a la R.J.
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!
by BenjiDoc on May 3, 2010 11:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes, you are correct
Went back to Gameday to see if I was incorrect, and in fact, I was. Morrow’s fastball was registering consistent tail last game; nothing under 10 inches up to inning #4 which is good. His fastball has no sink however.
He has better career numbers than McGowan
He had two bad starts. He was behind others in Spring training.
His fastball doesn't sink
because he throws a four-seamer, no? I’d imagine the Jays are going to want him to start throwing a two-seamer as well, it’s nice to be able to get those grounders
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
The pitching is really starting to round out nicely, which is a real positive sign. Marcum, Romero and Cecil, I’m sold on. I need a couple more starts on Morrow to be completely sold on him as a starter, and Eveland is Eveland.
Bazing. I’m getting really excited about the rotation. Romero, who I was lukewarm on coming into the season, has really emerged as a top of the rotation pitcher. He’s the real deal and I have no doubts Cecil is too. Great mound presence and very good stuff. Both of these guys have taken a giant leap forward with their control and command of the zone. Not just throwing strike but quality pitches; painting with two strike and making hitters chase with two strike. Both guys have improved their changeups markedly. Could the best case scenario ACTUALLY be happening with Romero-Marcum-Cecil? These guys look to be more than just big league hangers-on; they could be legitimate 1-2-3 type pitchers on a contending team. I’m starting to get fired up here. A word of caution though: the strength of schedule has been pretty favorable and we’ve been playing some clubs who are not swinging the bat well. But just look at the quality (movement, velocity) of the pitches being thrown! Its fantastic stuff.
Has anybody ever seen a longer swing than Austin Kearns tonight? How on earth was this guy raking coming into the game tonight. must be small sample size. Thought I was looking at Alex Rios for a second.
Jose Bautista may be extremely streaky (hit & miss) offensively, but he’s playing some good defense out there. I see nothing wrong with range, which some people gave him flak over. If he can hit .800 for the season, he’s not the worst option at 3B. A club could contend with him there, and at $2.4M per, it’s a positive situation (providing he hits decently).
If he can hit .800 for the season, he’s not the worst option at 3B.
the word “if” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Bautista is currently hitting .208/.299/.426. A .222 BABIP has hurt him (it was .275 last season), but a .317 wOBA is nothing to write home about.
I haven’t found anything wrong with his defense at third – it’s been steady. And of course his bat plays a lot better as an okay-fielding, part-time third baseman than as a corner outfielder.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
The step-up is quite plausible for Jose. He’s usually in the low to mid .700’s for his career. He should be the starting third baseman with an improvement towards the low .800’s – not platoon. It’s hard to say whether this will happen or not. Hopefully, EE stays buried on the DL for another month or two so we can find out.
we'll, he's been getting his chance this season
I don’t see Cito pushing Bautista to the bench. even if/when EE returns, I think it’s more likely Lewis becomes a bench player than Bautista does. His career OPS is .729 and that’s almost exactly where he is this season so far playing every day, but stranger things have happened
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Definitely a strong possibility
I wonder how that whole situation is going to play out. One one hand, Bautista is playing some mildly strong defense at third. His fielding range and fielding % are both above average yet again, and this time we can’t attribute it to low strikeout Pirates pitchers – thus more fielding opportunities. It’s obvious he’s doing a good job out there. But on the other hand, he’s offensive output is pretty much the same as it’s always been – not good enough to start.
It’s also obvious he’s better at 3rd base than in the outfield. And since Cito likes Lewis leading off (lack of better options there?), makes me wonder whether Lewis will sit much. If Lewis plays mostly full time, EE and Bautista have to platoon at 3B, which probably won’t be good for either – less so for EE since his power stroke is most likely heavy reliant on timing, thus requiring consistent AB’s. Perhaps a revolving door at DH-LF-3B with EE, Bautista, Lind?
UZR has Bautista as just about average defensively so far this year, so you are stating your case a little strongly
but with far too little data yet to say for sure. It’d be a substantial change from his career numbers if he ended the season that well at third — he has a lifetime -9.1 UZR/150, meaning he’s about one win worse with the glove over a full season than the average third baseman over his career.
Still, even his career numbers are far better than what one would expect EE to do with the glove.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
UZR has Bautista as just about average defensively so far this year, so you are stating your case a little strongly
but with far too little data yet to say for sure. It’d be a substantial change from his career numbers if he ended the season that well at third — he has a lifetime -9.1 UZR/150
Of course, that’s assumes you trust UZR as the ultimate defensive indicator, which I personally do not. Like most defensive indicators, it has some serious flaws in its calculation.
sure
not nearly as serious as using fielding percentage (!) or putouts + assists/9 innings (RF), however.
Interestingly, Total Zone almost exactly agrees with UZR as to Bautista’s fielding prowess at third over his career (about 10 runs (1 win)) below average scaled over a full season there. So maybe they are both wrong in their very close agreement.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
not nearly as serious as using fielding percentage (!) or putouts + assists/9 innings (RF), however.
Combined that with actually watching the player perform, and the picture become more accurate. The fact UZR and Total Zone are in agreement speaks more credibly for the overall accuracy of those indicators.
UZR excludes “infield line drives, infield pop flies, and outfield foul balls”, so that’s quite a large percentage of plays which go unaccounted for (The nice line drive stab by Bautista down the 3rd base line yesterday for example). Throw in variables such as turf/grass, fly ball/ground ball staff and LH/RH batters, there’s still too much conjecture with modern defensive stats IMO.
Thus, yeah, I’ll trust my eyes, overall RF/9 + fielding % as a fairly accurate measure. Agree to disagree there.
Although I'm sure you're correct
That Bautista may be better this year than previous years judging by TZ/UZR. All I know is that so far, he’s doing a fairly nice job over there.
those things are excluded to make the stat more accurate, though
anyway, you’re free to ignore evidence that doesn’t support your pet theory or “your eyes,” but I wouldn’t recommend it.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Just because there excluded doesn't mean they dont exist!
But feel free to rely on a stat that excludes all of the variables mentioned above, just because UZR says so.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYLsyNBnE5M
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
thanks Johnny
my little girl loved that
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
And what 'pet theory' are you talking about?
I’m not a scout, but these people do exist for a reason. Because in many cases, the power of observation is more reliable than incomplete stats (UZR). If it wasn’t, the draft would be done by computers and player personnel decisions would all be done by sabermetrics.
I guess you believe scouts are obsolete then?
that's a bizarre non sequitur
scouts are trained to observe baseball players. it is that training and experience that lends their observations the weight they carry. your blog comments are hardly analogous.
you didn’t point to any scouting opinion but tossed UZR and Total Zone’s agreement based on fielding percentage, RF/9, and your “eyes.” That’s a perfect example of someone cherry picking stats that support their theory and tossing better stats that don’t, picking out a few alleged flaws with the stats they don’t like while ignoring the glaring flaws with the ones that they chose, then adding an unspecified and unverifiable claim based on a lay person’s personal observation.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I didn't cherry pick anything
I was pointing out the flaws in a modern defensive metrics like UZR, which you appear to take as the be-all-end-all. Apparently, you tried to downplay that by saying “those things are excluded to make the stat more accurate, though” as if by taking those plays out of the equation, the metric somehow provides an accurate picture. The fact is, you can’t take out such a large % of plays and have a statistic which is truly representative.
As for the citing a specific scouting opinion, I was referring to my own. This is backed up by data that you dismiss as to trivial apparently. It is a fact that historically, Bautista generates more putout s+ assists per 9 IP (RF/9) than the average 3rd baseman. He also has an extremely strong arm and has enough sample size to say with confidence he doesn’t fluff a lot of chances (Fielding %). These are all undisputable facts.
Now, I fully realize the limitations of the metrics described above, and that UZR apparently offers a more comprehensive overall view of defensive metrics. But at least RF/9 measure total chances and doesn’t exclude infield line drives, outfield popups etc. Combine that with observation and I firmly believe my stance of Bautista’s defensive prowess is accurate – at least this year.
ad I come in and only used ‘my eyes’ to gauge Bautista’s defensive abilities, and thus deemed him ‘good defensively’, then of course thats a ridiculous statement. But the evidence is more broad based than this, and probably lies somewhere in the middle of the modern UZR-type metrics and more basic ones described earlier.
fair enough
let me just say that I don’t in any way dismiss scouting or consider defensive metrics to be the “end all and be all.” But excluding things like infield pop ups from UZR does make the metric more accurate, because it’s highly questionable (if not outright silly) that one major league infielder is any better at catching infield pop ups than another. Therefore, using RF/9, for example, which includes pop ups, is going to give a skewed picture because more pop ups is going to mean more put outs (and therefore a higher RF/9) while not actually telling you anything about the skill of the fielder involved.
I do think there’s a big difference in using your “eyes” between trained scouts’ opinion and a commenter on a blog, particularly when the commenter’s opinion is not in agreement with the metrics. That said, don’t feel bad that I don’t think your subjective observations carry any real weight – I don’t trust my own subjective observations very much either, and I played baseball for a long, long time. I am a strong believer in the great truth in the legal world that eyewitness testimony is inherently unreliable, and I think that carries over even more strongly to baseball. A scout who is trained to make such observations, accountable (at least to some degree) for his observations, and less encumbered by narrative bias, however, is another story.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I can agree with that
Although for some popups, a fielder has to travel quite far, so range does come into play (unless the metric ONLY judges infield and not outfield/foul ball popups). Then I’m not so sure UZR does make things more accurate. There’s also the inflied line drive question. Obviously range and reaction are a key component there so I can;t see how excluding that makes UZR more accurate.
But nonetheless, you’re points are valid. I just think that until better metrics are created, especially defensive ones, a ‘scouting opinion’ backed up by basic metrics do almost as good of job. Taking Bautista’s case, UZR has him about average so far, but I’m inclined to give just as much weight to RF/9 + fielding % + plus anecdotal evidence. the truth lies in the middle I’m sure.
Gotta run. Have a nice day and nice debating [even the snippy parts :)]
sounds good, as do I
a final note: your “scouting report + basic metrics” formula is strange to me as applied to this case as we still haven’t heard a “scouting opinion” regarding Bautista’s skill at third, so that’s hardly germane, and the “basic metrics” like fielding percentage can actually be extremely misleading and don’t tell you much of anything.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Like I said
The scouting opinion is that of my own. I personally trust my observation as much as I would any scout (don’t expect anybody else to).
But putting everything together, I like what I see for him there. He won’t make anybody forget Scott Rolen, but he’s better than any option we have IMO and would solidly become a mid-tier overall ML third basement with a bit more offense. The Jays can’t outspend the Yankees/Red Sox, so they can’t stock up at every position the way those teams can. So if we can get a cheaper option at 2 or 3 positions which perform relatively well, and go mano-a-mano at the other 6 or 7 positons, we can do fine.
UZR Whee!
Is this the part that I can complain about UZR?
It’s a good tool to have, much like Plus/Minus, but I’d hesitate to say it capture more than about 50% of a person’s true fielding ability, largely due to huge number of factors that simply are not (and mostly can’t) be measured; pitch type, infield/outfield alignment by position and player, player zones of influence, velocity of the hit, etc… there’s no way to factor them in. At best, in my opinion, UZR is good for showing an average range of a player over a period, and an average ability to glove the ball in that range. It’s more of a rough thumbnail than anything else. So it won’t make a bad fielder out of a good fielder, but it can make a bad fielder out of an average one.
I totally agree with that
I think you have to be very careful about imputing the kind of precision to UZR, particularly over a year or less of data, that some do. In addition, to be really sure you have to also use other advanced metrics like +/-, total zone, etc to see if they corroborate or contradict one another. At the same time, I think it’s fair to say that those tools are the best that exist for evaluating defense. Anecdotal eyeballing and more simplistic metrics like fielding percentage are much more likely to be misleading than UZR is.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Mostly Yes
The thing about fielding metrics is that it is really trying to measure something that is heavily influenced by the whole team and outside factors as much as it is individual ability. I remember reading about Yankee Charlie Kellor being considered a below average left fielder, because he only worked a narrow range of the range. The reason wasn’t that was all he could play, but that anything outside of that range was automatically DiMaggio’s play, and if you tried to make it yourself, you’d quickly be turned into an ex-fielder by Joltin’ Joe.
It’s one of those things that you really need to look at the data behind the stats, then add a healthy dose of strategic intelligence as to what could advantage/disadvantage the data before going to results. Interesting sidenote, the Jays fielding profile is very unique this year with three lefty starters.
re: Charlie Kellor
Doesn’t UZR account for that by not considering who made the play, but just that a play was made? This is, of course, both a black eye (because it gives guys credit on plays they may not have made) and a feather in its cap (because it doesn’t discredit players when other guys “steal” their balls)?
That said, Bautista’s UZR could be fairly heavily influenced if Alex Gonzalez makes a lot of plays in the hole, no?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I don’t think so, but I’m somewhat shaky on the raw data collection of UZR so I could be wrong. The way that I thought it was handled is that the zone is related to the section caught in relation to the player and their position. I might be wrong on that, but I think that is it.
If so, what it would mean is a guy would has excellent range at SS or 2B, and is given a larger spread allowing the corner infielders to play close to the lines should lose out on their overall range.
hmmm seems like I was mistaken, actually
the fielder�s out percentage is determined by dividing his “balls caught” (his outs) by the total balls in play in that zone (hits plus outs) when that player is on the field, and then subtracting the league outs in that zone (made by a fielder at that position only) divided by the league balls in play in that zone, and multiplying the difference by the total balls in play in that zone when that player is on the field.
—http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-21_0/
I wonder if I was confusing it with RZR or something.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I'm a Jo-Bau fan
But to get close to that he’s either going to have to be platooned or start doing something he’s never done before: hit RHP.
Career OPS vs. RHP? .686. That is not going to cut it.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
I'd love to see them platoon him.
Hoping that he’ll suddenly start hitting right handers is nice and all, but it isn’t likely to happen.
that's my thought too
but I’ve been wrong before
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I agree, but
With whom? And at 3B or in the OF?
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
1 Last thing
Good on Travis Snider for hitting a line drive down the LF line for a double. The pitch was a fastball with heavy tailing action which started on the inner half, and ran towards the outer half by the time it reached the plate. Instead of trying to pull the ball and rolling over for a weak GB to second base, Snider stayed back and went with the pitch. Once he starts doing this regularly, he’s gonna be a good hitter. To me, this was more exciting than the absolute rocket HR he hit later on.
+ I also heard Snider in the car on Saturday hit a double of the LF well in Toronto, so maybe he’s figuring this out+
Cleveland: The Sixth City
Hadn’t heard of this nickname, so a quick Google turned up an interesting text from 1913 of which here’s an extract:
THEY call her the Sixth City, but that is only in a comparative sense, and exclusively in regard to her statistical position in the population ranks of the large cities of our land. For no real citizen of Cleveland will ever admit that his community is less than first, in all of the things that make for the advance of a strong and healthy American town. His might better be called “the City of Boundless Enthusiasm.” Your Cleveland man, however, is content to know it as the Sixth City.
" Not that it really matters whether we are the fifth or the seventh or the sixth," he tells you. " Only it all goes to show how we’ve bobbed up in the last twenty years. You know what we used to be an inconsiderable lake port up on the north brink of Ohio with Cincinnati down there in the south pruning herself as a real metropolis and calling herself the Queen City. We might call ourselves the Queen City today and stretch no points, but that’s a sort of fancy title that’s gone out of fashion now. The Sixth City sounds more like the Twentieth Century."
Sadly, Cleveland today would only earn the nickname “The Forty-First City” – doesn’t quite have the same ring. Goes to show that nothing lasts forever – all things, cities included, rise and fall.
Amazing Brett Cecil pitching performance tonight !
My hats off to him !
Didn’t see a 14 – 13 record at this point!
Who knows maybe were running after a wildcard in August – five , six games back , it would be nice !
lucas
by TorontoBluejays10 on May 3, 2010 11:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I don't get it
In the 4 previous possible No-no’s, twice I didn’t mention it and twice I purposfully brought it up. All four times, the Jays pitcher lost the No hitter. Its as if what I blog about has no bearing on the actual game.
Surely that isn’t the case.
A man without a mustache is like a cup of tea without Sugar
by craig in calgary on May 4, 2010 12:32 AM EDT reply actions
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