I'll follow my dreams where ever they take me: Mid-Season Prospect Report 1-10.
With the All-Star break we thought we'd look at how the guys on our Top 30 Prospect List are doing to this point this season.
The title comes from a Joe Ely song "I Saw It In You", which sort of seemed appropriate.
1. Kyle Drabek, RHP: The number one guy on our preseason prospect list hasn't done anything to make you feel he shouldn't be number one. Kyle leads the Fisher Cats in wins with 9, innings with 113 and strikeouts with 85. I guess the only downside to his statistics is he has walked a few too many (46) but he is only 22. His walk rate is up a bit from last year and his strikeout rate is down a little. He is getting ground balls at a good clip 1.56 ground outs to each fly out. His ERA so far is 3.03. And there was the no-hitter on July 4. Being a ground ball pitcher, you'd think he'd do better with a steadier infield than he has at Double-A so the future looks bright. He apparently has a bit of a temper, but so did Dave Stieb and he had a pretty good career with the Jays. I wouldn't mind seeing how his ground ball throwing act works in Las Vegas. If you can keep the ball in the park there, you can do it anywhere. A couple of September starts in Toronto would be good too, at least for us fans.
2. Brett Wallace, 1B: Brett's minor league season really will be judged on how well he learns to play first base. He has only made 4 errors so far this season and reports I've heard say that he is learning quickly there. I wouldn't expect him to become as good as Lyle, with the glove, in a hurry but as long as he can catch what is thrown to him, I'll be happy. In 81 games at Vegas he is hitting .296/.359/.497, with 14 homers. Not the massive numbers we would like to see from a hitter there, but not bad. He could walk a little more and likely will in time. I'd like to get to watch him play but there is no rush, I'd imagine we'll see him in September if not before.
3. Zach Stewart, RHP: 7-2 with a 4.20 ERA, with 40 walks and 70 k in 94.1 New Hampshire innings. His strikeout rate is down a bit this year but so is his walk rate. His last 10 games he has a 3.19 ERA and a 5-1 record and hasn't gone less than 5 innings in any of those starts. So his first pro season of being just a starter is going quite well. A ground ball pitcher, I imagine at some point this year he'll be moving up to Triple-A. Just 23, if we had the need he could be up to Jays sometime next year.
4. Chad Jenkins, RHP: He started the season at Lansing, went 5-4 with a 3.63 in 13 starts and then was moved up to Dunedin, where he hasn't had the same success in his first 4 starts (1-2, 6.04), though that's sort of the definition of small sample size. Between the two stops he isn't walking many 1.7/9 innings, while striking out 7/9. He's also been a ground ball pitcher, getting 1.76 ground ball outs per fly ball out. He is a big guy at 6'4" and 235.
5. Henderson Alvarez, RHP: Just turned 20 this past April, he started off his season at Dunedin like a house on fire, he hasn't been quite as good lately, 3-3, 4.66 ERA in his last ten starts, several of them very poor starts. I wouldn't get worried. Overall he is 6-4, 3.53 in 15 starts and 74 innings. He has struck out 56 and walked just 17. He is getting a lot of ground outs, 1.65/GO/FO. He is young and it will take a couple or so years before he's ready for the Jays.
6. Travis d'Arnaud, C: 21 and at Dunedin. He is hitting .282/.330/.440 with 6 home runs and 34 RBI in 56 games. With defense as his calling card, his bat is doing well enough to think he'll have a good career in the majors.
7. Carlos Perez, C: Just 19 years old and playing his first season at short season Auburn. We are just 20 games into the Auburn season so it is early but he is hitting great in those 20 games, .301/.388/.479, with a homer and 4 triples and a couple of stolen bases. He has also thrown out 45% of guys that have tried to steal against him. Early going but he is said to have a great arm and he is showing it. We have a long line of potential catchers, but he could be as good as any of them.
8. Jake Marisnick, CF: Starting his pro career with the GCL Blue Jays. He has just played 19 games but is hitting .288/.377/.500 with 2 homers and 6 stolen bases. Too early to say much about him but the small sample is good.
9. Tyler Pastornicky, SS: The first on our top prospects list that isn't having a good season at least to this point. He is hitting .258/.348/.376 with 24 steals in 77 games at Dunedin. He's been splitting time between SS and 2B, but now that Hechavarria . He has been getting on base a little better the last 10 games, .372. He is likely too high on our list, especially now that we have Hechavarria installed as our shortstop of the future. I still like him but he should be down a bunch of spots.
10. Brad Mills, LHP: 5-4, 4.31 ERA in 14 starts at Las Vegas, which for there is pretty decent. Miss about a month with a minor injury but is back now. 73 k and 34 walks in 77.1. He is 25 and if given the chance I think he could be pretty good in the majors, but there are too many guys passing him by on the depth charts.
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Im a bit worried about Drabek's low K numbers
should a potential 1 or 2 starter be striking out a few more guys (and walking much less)? I thought he throws 95ish with a great curve?
Onions Baby Onions
He did start slow and his first few starts he didn’t quite have the feel for his curve as he was bouncing a lot of them and getting them into the dirt (As per our very own NHfishercatsfan) Since then he has gotten better.
Of course he still is only 22 so lots of time to fine tune and iron things out.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Bastian
Jays acquire SS Escobar & LHP Reyes from ATL in exchange for SS Gonzalez & prospects T. Collins & T. Pastornicky. More on bluejays.com soon.
I'm on a horse.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2010 12:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
look for #11-20 up tomorrow
to tide us over on an off-day
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I've done my own midseason Top 10
1. JP Arencibia - can’t ignore what he’s been doing for the last 6 weeks OPS’ing > 1.300
2. Kyle Drabek - good year going, not blow me away good, but good
3. Brett Wallace - hits lefties very well, the power versus righties should come
4. Travis d’Arnaud - on fire pre-injury, solid all-round catcher
5. Henderson Alvarez - has a chance to be special, still only 20
6. Carlos Perez - 19 year old great all-round catching prospect in Auburn
7. Asher Wojciechowski - has to learn the change to be a top end starter, electric FB/SL combo
8. AJ Jiminez - 20 years old in Lansing, great defence, athletic, bat’s looking good
9. Jake Marisnick - toolsy 19 year-old CF tearing up the GCL
10. Brad Emaus - I’ve always had a soft spot for this guy
HM’s – Adeiny Hechevarria, Tim Collins, Eric Thames, Adonis Cardona
I have been getting excited about Arencibia too
but also understanding that the combination of the PCL and repeating the level means he has a lot of wind at his back.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I guess if he is hitting sort of like Ruiz was last year....
we do have to take it with a grain of salt
he's hitting like Snider did last year
.300 OPS points above Ruiz….that’s what has my attention – the last six weeks….if Drabek, Wallace or d’Arnaud were doing better, they’d have the top spot.
Henderson Alvarez
Keith Law ranked Alvarez as the 16th best prospect in the Futures game. He ranked ahead of Dee Gordon, Tanner Scheppers, Grant Green and Zach Wheeler, among others. Those four are all in Baseball America’s midseason Top 50. So it seems likely that we could see Alvarez join Wallace, Drabek, d’Arnaud and maybe Arencibia on some top 100 lists this year.
I really like Alvarez, its too bad he has been struggleing as of late
He still needs to improve his K rate
but the raw stuff is there to be great
he's striking out at batter per inning
since June 1….but oBA is over .300…..i think he’ll put it together at some point.
he was sitting 94-96 on the fastball at the Futures Game, and his change-up is his calling card

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